Russia / Ukraine Watch

[Max B Gold]

Statement from Abramovitch on handing over control of Chelsea FC.

www.chelseafc.com/en/news/2022/02/26/st ... abramovich

Does he even own it? I thought Putin made him buy it as part of the bid to get Russia the World Cup and to smooth the path into wining and dining the London businessmen in the hospitality suites as the Petrogas roubles bought the London establishment.

[Dunners]

Things really seem to be happening. Kazakhstan and China are backing away, ejection from SWIFT is looking likely. And the Germans are finally doing the right thing.

All the above, combined with the incredible bravery and resistance of the Ukrainian people, and the news that the Chechen general may have been killed in action, gives us hope. Putin will not be happy.

An unhappy Putin might be even worse. Think further intimidation/provocation of other nations and increased missile bombardment of Ukraine

That is a concern. I'm sure military and FO strategists are looking at a range of possibilities, from offering him some form of optic victory so he can withdraw without losing face, to him being assassinated. But aggression is all he seems to respond to.

[Mistadobalina]

The resolve to avoid any military contact between NATO and Russia is still strong. But we ain't seen the second attack wave yet. So far only about a third of Russian forces have crossed into Ukraine, and many of them seem to be bewildered conscripts from the Caucases.

The Russians are probing for weaknesses and will adapt. The second wave will include their elite forces and real heavy equipment, and will overcome some of the logistical errors made so far. We may even see the use of thermobaric weapons.

This will be tough to witness and could have an impact on public opinion and political appetite for intervention. Imagine the impact of tension of thousands of bodies littered through the street. So I get where Pammy is coming from.

So far we have been entirely reactive and have done so in a way that Putin could have entirely predicted. If NATO starts to believe an intervention is necessary then it will need to seize the initiative and be prepared to take real risks.

Is there a reason why Russia's invasion has been relatively muted so far? If they wanted to take Kiev and other major cities out, surely could have been done by now? Is it to minimise russian military losses or to reduce potential civilian losses so they can keep up their pretence of peacekeepers? Or is the Russian military really not invested in what they are being asked to do?

Having obviously planned this invasion for so long, it seems really odd that it's being done sporadically and in a way that allows ft or big losses of Russian troops.

[Smendrick Feaselberg]

Things really seem to be happening. Kazakhstan and China are backing away, ejection from SWIFT is looking likely. And the Germans are finally doing the right thing.

All the above, combined with the incredible bravery and resistance of the Ukrainian people, and the news that the Chechen general may have been killed in action, gives us hope. Putin will not be happy.

An unhappy Putin might be even worse. Think further intimidation/provocation of other nations and increased missile bombardment of Ukraine

That is a concern. I'm sure military and FO strategists are looking at a range of possibilities, from offering him some form of optic victory so he can withdraw without losing face, to him being assassinated. But aggression is all he seems to respond to.

Since you know far more about this than me, why would bumping off Putin make things better as opposed to worse with his successor wanting/needing to avenge his death?

[Smendrick Feaselberg]

The resolve to avoid any military contact between NATO and Russia is still strong. But we ain't seen the second attack wave yet. So far only about a third of Russian forces have crossed into Ukraine, and many of them seem to be bewildered conscripts from the Caucases.

The Russians are probing for weaknesses and will adapt. The second wave will include their elite forces and real heavy equipment, and will overcome some of the logistical errors made so far. We may even see the use of thermobaric weapons.

This will be tough to witness and could have an impact on public opinion and political appetite for intervention. Imagine the impact of tension of thousands of bodies littered through the street. So I get where Pammy is coming from.

So far we have been entirely reactive and have done so in a way that Putin could have entirely predicted. If NATO starts to believe an intervention is necessary then it will need to seize the initiative and be prepared to take real risks.

Is there a reason why Russia's invasion has been relatively muted so far? If they wanted to take Kiev and other major cities out, surely could have been done by now? Is it to minimise russian military losses or to reduce potential civilian losses so they can keep up their pretence of peacekeepers? Or is the Russian military really not invested in what they are being asked to do?

Having obviously planned this invasion for so long, it seems really odd that it's being done sporadically and in a way that allows ft or big losses of Russian troops.

From what I've read they've not sent in their most skilles troops yet. Presumably they sent in their grunts after the initial bombardments hoping that it would be enough to intimidate Ukraine into surrender/negotiations without losing their elite fighters.

[Dunners]

The resolve to avoid any military contact between NATO and Russia is still strong. But we ain't seen the second attack wave yet. So far only about a third of Russian forces have crossed into Ukraine, and many of them seem to be bewildered conscripts from the Caucases.

The Russians are probing for weaknesses and will adapt. The second wave will include their elite forces and real heavy equipment, and will overcome some of the logistical errors made so far. We may even see the use of thermobaric weapons.

This will be tough to witness and could have an impact on public opinion and political appetite for intervention. Imagine the impact of tension of thousands of bodies littered through the street. So I get where Pammy is coming from.

So far we have been entirely reactive and have done so in a way that Putin could have entirely predicted. If NATO starts to believe an intervention is necessary then it will need to seize the initiative and be prepared to take real risks.

Is there a reason why Russia's invasion has been relatively muted so far? If they wanted to take Kiev and other major cities out, surely could have been done by now? Is it to minimise russian military losses or to reduce potential civilian losses so they can keep up their pretence of peacekeepers? Or is the Russian military really not invested in what they are being asked to do?

Having obviously planned this invasion for so long, it seems really odd that it's being done sporadically and in a way that allows ft or big losses of Russian troops.

From what I've read they've not sent in their most skilles troops yet. Presumably they sent in their grunts after the initial bombardments hoping that it would be enough to intimidate Ukraine into surrender/negotiations without losing their elite fighters.

This is what I'm reading, although there appears to be plenty of very poor logistical planning too. I also think the underestimated the resilience and resolve of the Ukrainians.

[Dunners]

An unhappy Putin might be even worse. Think further intimidation/provocation of other nations and increased missile bombardment of Ukraine

That is a concern. I'm sure military and FO strategists are looking at a range of possibilities, from offering him some form of optic victory so he can withdraw without losing face, to him being assassinated. But aggression is all he seems to respond to.

Since you know far more about this than me, why would bumping off Putin make things better as opposed to worse with his successor wanting/needing to avenge his death?

It's not guaranteed, but he has a very small circle of confidents and backers. And, seeing the fallout, it would give someone the opportunity to establish themselves as a reformer and bridge builder back to non-pariah status.

[Stowaway]

Talking to a friend with a Russian partner tonight, he’s expressing amazement that Putin is ruining his legacy like this. To many Russians he was a hero, taking Russias economy and turning it around, even if you discount the fact that he and his pals then bled it dry. But this invasion is proving to be incredibly unpopular in Russia. There always have been close ties between the two countries and many Russians have relatives in Ukraine, and vice versa. For once RasPutin’s propaganda isn’t fooling the Russian people and there’s genuine outrage at this. He does value his legacy, and he’s risking going to his grave as the most despised man in history since Hitler. It just makes no sense at all.

[Mistadobalina]

Is there a reason why Russia's invasion has been relatively muted so far? If they wanted to take Kiev and other major cities out, surely could have been done by now? Is it to minimise russian military losses or to reduce potential civilian losses so they can keep up their pretence of peacekeepers? Or is the Russian military really not invested in what they are being asked to do?

Having obviously planned this invasion for so long, it seems really odd that it's being done sporadically and in a way that allows ft or big losses of Russian troops.

From what I've read they've not sent in their most skilles troops yet. Presumably they sent in their grunts after the initial bombardments hoping that it would be enough to intimidate Ukraine into surrender/negotiations without losing their elite fighters.

This is what I'm reading, although there appears to be plenty of very poor logistical planning too. I also think the underestimated the resilience and resolve of the Ukrainians.

Guess I don't really understand why they haven't used their total air dominance to level Ukraine's defences. And they've done enough indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas to eliminate any plausible deniability that this is an invasion to preserve the peace, but not so much as to start taking over major towns and cities.

There's not really a precedent for a 21st century conflict between two relatively advanced armies so it feels very surreal all round. But it just seems like if Russia had wanted this to be done comprehensively and quickly, they could have it done by now. Nothing has stopped them crossing borders, flooding the country with heavy equipment and encircling every city.

Without understanding how military tactics work, my assumption is that Ukraine is just delaying the inevitable for a few days and then it'll be on to insurgency tactics in the cities. That is unless cracks start to show in Russia domestically.

[StockholmO]

I’m wary of the reports of how this conflict is going, but if the reports of Russian tactics are correct then it just doesn’t make any sense.

It could be that Putin is controlling this war himself and not his Generals.

[tuffers#1]

A Russian analyst view

[tuffers#1]

[Max B Gold]

From what I've read they've not sent in their most skilles troops yet. Presumably they sent in their grunts after the initial bombardments hoping that it would be enough to intimidate Ukraine into surrender/negotiations without losing their elite fighters.

This is what I'm reading, although there appears to be plenty of very poor logistical planning too. I also think the underestimated the resilience and resolve of the Ukrainians.

Guess I don't really understand why they haven't used their total air dominance to level Ukraine's defences. And they've done enough indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas to eliminate any plausible deniability that this is an invasion to preserve the peace, but not so much as to start taking over major towns and cities.

There's not really a precedent for a 21st century conflict between two relatively advanced armies so it feels very surreal all round. But it just seems like if Russia had wanted this to be done comprehensively and quickly, they could have it done by now. Nothing has stopped them crossing borders, flooding the country with heavy equipment and encircling every city.

Without understanding how military tactics work, my assumption is that Ukraine is just delaying the inevitable for a few days and then it'll be on to insurgency tactics in the cities. That is unless cracks start to show in Russia domestically.

It's a big country. Let them in and run down their materiel. Defend the cities, street by street. They will pay the cost. Besides the Russian military despite the rebuild with Petrogas Dollars isn't all its cracked up to be.

Expect battlefield nukes next week.

[tuffers#1]

Expect Battlefield Nukes ?
Where Maxy ?

[Dunners]

Things are escalating and tensions are rising. Chechen forces want to go full jihadi, and Russia now sending in the elite forces and weaponry with instructions to go in hard.

Putin has just put his nuclear deterrence on a state of high alert. That will affect the DEFCOM status. I'm definitely feeling more uneasy.

[Max B Gold]

Expect Battlefield Nukes ?
Where Maxy ?

Battlefield

[tuffers#1]

Expect Battlefield Nukes ?
Where Maxy ?

Battlefield

Id be more worried about Putin readying his Nukes against
European leaders/Nations who he says are threatening Russia .

Which he has done within the last hour

[Max B Gold]

Expect Battlefield Nukes ?
Where Maxy ?

Battlefield

Id be more worried about Putin readying his Nukes against
European leaders/Nations who he says are threatening Russia .

Which he has done within the last hour

UK should be OK then. The Tories are bought and paid for mates of Mad Vlad.

[tuffers#1]

Battlefield

Id be more worried about Putin readying his Nukes against
European leaders/Nations who he says are threatening Russia .

Which he has done within the last hour

UK should be OK then. The Tories are bought and paid for mates of Mad Vlad.

Do they own the american air force bases & nukes
On the British mainland as well ?

[Max B Gold]

Id be more worried about Putin readying his Nukes against
European leaders/Nations who he says are threatening Russia .

Which he has done within the last hour

UK should be OK then. The Tories are bought and paid for mates of Mad Vlad.

Do they own the american air force bases & nukes
On the British mainland as well ?

All UK nuclear missile bearing submarines are at sea and in position.

[RedDwarf 1881]

Expect Battlefield Nukes ?
Where Maxy ?

Battlefield

Id be more worried about Putin readying his Nukes against
European leaders/Nations who he says are threatening Russia .

Which he has done within the last hour

If he's mad enough to use them he can kiss Russia good-bye. He might be happy to see Russia destroyed but what about his people. No winners only losers.

[tuffers#1]

UK should be OK then. The Tories are bought and paid for mates of Mad Vlad.

Do they own the american air force bases & nukes
On the British mainland as well ?

All UK nuclear missile bearing submarines are at sea and in position.

Iasked about air bases, does the uk only have submarine nukes? im not upto date on the uks american arsenal .

[tuffers#1]

Battlefield

Id be more worried about Putin readying his Nukes against
European leaders/Nations who he says are threatening Russia .

Which he has done within the last hour

If he's mad enough to use them he can kiss Russia good-bye. He might be happy to see Russia destroyed but what about his people. No winners only losers.

surely you arent asking if hes mad enough are you ?

[Top of the JES]

The best we can hope for is some sort of negotiated compromise to allow Putins to save face.

Not particularly worried about Putins nuclear threats Russia and NATO are always on alert. Heightened alert is word play and he Absolutely knows that any attack on NATO countries would be met with similar force and that’s the end for mother Russia as well as the rest of us. even Putin won’t do that.

As mentioned earlier Putin has a small circle of confidants he has been largely isolated over the last few years and The Russian people are against this invasion those two things could spell the end for Putin it only takes a couple of high ranking armed forces majors to put their heads together to be able to force Putin out or take him out.

[RedDwarf 1881]

Id be more worried about Putin readying his Nukes against
European leaders/Nations who he says are threatening Russia .

Which he has done within the last hour

If he's mad enough to use them he can kiss Russia good-bye. He might be happy to see Russia destroyed but what about his people. No winners only losers.

surely you arent asking if hes mad enough are you ?

Yes, fair point .