Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:59 am DEB, In the hundreds of games Admin and Spike have posted they average around 30% of games solved in 3 or less. I average 30% games solved in three even when I very occasionally can't think of a word and cheat. Every single person who posted a summary of their scores averaged almost exactly 30% of scores of three or less. You are averaging above 50% of threes or less, while using a starting word for most of it that is agreed to be a bit sh*t. You're not pulling out the big guns for the second guess either, computers need to reach for stuff like nidor, mucho, knerfs, brondy to get it in 3.

Do you accept that as you are using the same bog standard approach as everyone else that the difference is best explained by you being a little luckier than would be expected?

Here's an example for you to have a look at. Look at the words it is using and then cringe a little but that over 85+ games you have claimed to do better than it.

https://jonathanolson.net/wordle-solver/

Daily Express bot wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:24 pm
Perhaps I am a bit more lucky , luck is mathematical chance is it not? I am not cheating as I said. I will look at the above in more detail when I get in, thanks.

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2023 11:20 am

Daily Express bot wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:24 pm
Perhaps I am a bit more lucky , luck is mathematical chance is it not? I am not cheating as I said. I will look at the above in more detail when I get in, thanks.

Yes, lets agree on the definition that luck is doing better than chance would suggest. The question now is how do you define when someone is just too lucky? If someone got 3 in a row with their first guess would you say it is pretty much certain they are cheating for example? By chance it would happen 80 in a trillion times if you picked a word at random from the possible answers, so not impossible but can we agree we could safely call anyone claiming that feat a big fat cheat?

Admin wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:52 am Wordle 902 2/6*

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 10:05 am I meant 3 scores of 1 in a row, could we call someone that lucky a cheat?

3 out of 3 has about a 2.7% chance of happening, but in a run of a hundred something that has a 2.7% chance of happening should be expected about 94% or lthe time or less.

Apart from the calculation itself being inherently generous, it also needs to be taken into account that the answers aren't random, they are chosen by the NYT (and before that set in advance) to mix things up. So most people will get a run of 3 3's at some point, but it's rare and only the legend that is tuffers and one other person have posted runs longer than that before you.

You have two runs of 5 3's in a row out of the 80 odd games i looked at,, being very generous thats has a ess than 3% chance of happening. Highly suspicious but not in the same league as the roughly one in 10 billion of getting it with the firat guess three tines in a row.

Anyway, are you still considering taking on the challenge aet for you. It's exactly the same as you're used to, except you can't delete rows out of the score you post.

P.s. Admin and Spike pass all tests of their scores with flying colours. In the games iblooked at that you had all played Admin was slightly luckier than Spike (who missed some sitters).

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:53 am Congratulations to Admin on what I think is his first run of four 3 or less in a row. I was hoping he was on a wind up to see if I'd catch on but all checks out.

901 - sleep - second guess sp--e, probably an r in there. Obvious choice after first guess, would have left sweep or sleep for a 50/50 guess.

902 - sharp - 1 in 11 chance out of hoard, khaki (used before and f*cked most people), shady, shaky, shell, shank, shard, sharp, shawl, wharf. Sharp is the obvious one to go for.

903 - shift - 2nd guess probably hoist, going for vowels after none found in first guess. Obvious to switch the h and t round from first guess. Leaves shirt or shift for another 50/50 guess.

904 - (today's answer) first guess leaves 9 possible answers, have to put the last two letters from the first guess at the front in the only way possible. On another day would have been a 2.