Independent Leyton Orient Forum

BoniO wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 8:38 am Wordle 412 3/6

Wordle 412 5/6

Newcomer BoniO starting to get my wordle senses tingling. 4% chance of 5 3's on the bounce, not conclusive but it's going in the spreadsheet.

Not as lucky as me of course if you look at my post of 11.47 after you have completed today's.

Hehe - on a roll at the moment - it won’t last!

Well within what would be expected.

I think I need to adjust my method. New theory is that non cheating human will be more likely than a perfect computer algorithm to get 2's and possibly 3's by going for a guess rather than logically eliminating words, but you would also expect more 5, 6 and fails as a result.

I'm going to try the results from wordle stat which automatically takes results from twitter. Seeing as that is riddled with cheats too it should provide an effective lower bound.

I should also probably stop thinking about this so much.

Wordle 412 5/6

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:31 am Well within what would be expected.

I think I need to adjust my method. New theory is that non cheating human will be more likely than a perfect computer algorithm to get 2's and possibly 3's by going for a guess rather than logically eliminating words, but you would also expect more 5, 6 and fails as a result.

I'm going to try the results from wordle stat which automatically takes results from twitter. Seeing as that is riddled with cheats too it should provide an effective lower bound.

I should also probably stop thinking about this so much.

You don't have a choice anymore. You've become a significant threat to the national security structure. They would have killed you already but you got a lot of light on you. Instead they're trying to destroy your credibility. They already have in many circles in this town. Be honest, your only chance is to come up with a case. Something, anything. Make arrests, stir the sh*t storm, hope to reach a point of critical mass that'll start a chain reaction of people coming forward, then the government will crack. Remember, fundamentally people are suckers for the truth - and the truth is on your side, Bubba. I just hope you get a break.

Piece of trash

Wordle 412 6/6

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:47 am I'm finally chucking out my kids old BUGGY tonight. Thats my guess for tomorrow.

Wordle 412 1/6




Hhhhmmmmmm

I hope you're not suggesting that was anything other than luck.

I Am as it happens !

Its like Mick picked a planet out of
1 of those trillions of stars in the sky
before the Big Bang Itself had happened &
universes stars & planets were even a thing .


What did you do on your 2nd day again ?

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:47 am I'm finally chucking out my kids old BUGGY tonight. Thats my guess for tomorrow.

WTAF????

FFS

Wordle 412 X/6

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:55 pm I hope you're not suggesting that was anything other than luck.

I Am as it happens !

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:47 am I'm finally chucking out my kids old BUGGY tonight. Thats my guess for tomorrow.

Oops

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:39 pm I think you're way better than that, I've been procrastinating badly today and looking at wordle stat. I need to do some work now but rough estimate on your second guess luck is the equivalent of me picking a star at random from the entire observable universe of a trillion or so galaxies and you guessing which one I picked first time. That's some luck.

Its like Mick picked a planet out of
1 of those trillions of stars in the sky
before the Big Bang Itself had happened &
universes stars & planets were even a thing .


What did you do on your 2nd day again ?

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:47 am I'm finally chucking out my kids old BUGGY tonight. Thats my guess for tomorrow.

I predict puzzle answers before they are published

Wordle 413 3/6

Wordle 413 3/6

Wordle 413 4/6

.

Picking a word the day before and getting it right is no less likely than picking it a second before you enter it and getting it right. Picking a word in advance, saying this is going to be right and it coming in is obviously a different matter. I wish I could say it was something more devious than google but I was trying to find out if the words were randomly chosen and the first link gives all the answers from here to the end of wordle. The answer order is coded into the game (has been overridden a couple of time though) so any words that you might think are particularly apt for the day is your brain making the link after the event.

Anyway, I have spent the last hour putting people's posts into a spreadsheet and the results are in.. tuffers, gshaws and spikes are taken from posts on here, others from the overall stats supplied.

Scores as a percentage of games played:

Probability of results coming next, but struggling with a scale to fit everyone in that isn't a clump and an outlier.....

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:58 am Probability of results coming next, but struggling with a scale to fit everyone in that isn't a clump and an outlier.....

Are there any outliars?

Wordle 413 4/6

Probability of getting 3 or less as many times as reported vs best bot

Tuffers (1st 100 posts) 0.0000000427
Spike (180 posts) 0.999999992
Gshaw (139) 0.99999999999997
Dunners (42) 0.99997983
Mickm (159) 1
Lsn (29) 0.98956
Gtp (142) 1
Tuffers (last 31) 0.7576

Don't think I can plot that on any meaningful scale. Apologies to tuffers. My accusations of cheating have really put a dent in your performance.

Perhaps probability vs average score rather than best bot might be better

Right, found a scale that works. Probability of a three or less taken from a scrape of 15million twitter posts I found.

Drawn on a rather large graph:

Gshaw - roughly the height of the Walkie Talkie

Me and Lsn - about the height of the BT tower

Gtp - about the height of the Natwest Tower

Dunners - 8 Canada square

Spike - The Bishorn (really very good, in the top 4% of players)

Tuffers last 31 games - Cruising altitude of Concorde

Tuffers first hundred games - There and back to the furthest galaxy observed by the James Webb telescope 10 times (corrected as I realised I converted metres to astronomical units as if they were kilometres initially).

Please take this with a pinch of salt and in the spirit intended. I'm sure there's all kinds of flaws in my methodology, but anyway you look at it tuffers scores are off the scale. I know you're not suddenly going to say it's a fair cop, so we'll put it down to my dodgy maths and up the O's and all that.

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