Rich Tea Wellin wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2023 11:26 am
Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2023 11:21 am
Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2023 10:50 am
Which bit of suggesting those in positions of power should have been calling for a ceasefire weeks and weeks ago is dumb or a wind up?
If you don't wish to answer that, you could just ban me again.
Its been covered, but of course its dumb.
A 1000 civilians have just been slaughtered, but ceasefire?
Hamas need to be defeated, until that happens there shouldnt be a ceasefire. I think theres a better chance of long term peace once they're gone.
Honest question. Do you think they even if Hamas is “deafeated” (whatever that means), that the way Israel have gone about doing it/all the history will not be a trigger for more people to sign up to Hamas v2?
This is where I am on the situation.
The lesson to be learnt from Iraq and Libya is that things can always get worse. And, when tyrannical regimes have been toppled through foreign military intervention, what has emerged in the void has proven to be far worse. There's a reasonable argument to be made that we'd be better off had we stuck with Sadam than ISIS, and Gaddafi than the various militias that now control what is a failed state.
I see no reason why the outcome will be any different in Gaza. And in doing what it is, Israel is just adding weight to the propaganda spread by the Tehran regime. It is falling into an Islamist trap. It is making ordinary Israelis less safe, and risks further destabilisation of a region that is already a powder keg.
But, I also believe that the domestic political reality within Israel makes it difficult for them to change tact. Any state is going to be under domestic pressure to respond with force to what Hamas did on Oct 7. It Israel will have assessed that Hamas is a genuine threat, they maintain significant support within the population of Gaza and, as they control all educational establishments, will be indoctrinating the following generations into a fundamentalist Islamic ideology that is committed to wiping them out.
However, the Netanyahu government (which is bad enough by itself) is beholden to at least two ethno/theocractic/nationalist nutjob parties who have an iron-clad belief in their right to occupy all of the Palestinian territories (and even Jordon). They too have considerable support, and they have been accommodated by the both the state and IDF whilst participating in illegal settler activities. They blew a gasket when Israel forced them to leave Gaza during the withdrawal, and there could be full-on civil war if the same was to happen in the West Bank.
The whole thing is absolutely f*cked. Any intervention from any of the external actors in this risks escalation and deadly consequences. But leaving things to run their course is just as risky. This is going to take a coordinated effort and a lot of luck between the USA, the Saudis, Qatar, Egypt and Jordon to try and put the genie back into the bottle.