Proposition Joe wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:37 am
So if calling for a ceasefire wasn't relevant to the point you were apparently trying to make, why did you mention it?
I was hoping for a ceasefire last week , the post above was highlighting certain Labour MP’s ignoring Starmer’s request for cross party unity on the matter. The 30 or so MP’s ignoring him are I’ll judging the situation and are not being objective.
What are key actors doing to achieve a ceasefire?
A ceasefire is for Palestinian children who once dreamt of peace.
A ceasefire is for terrified Israeli hostages, longing to be reunited with their loved ones.
A ceasefire is for humanity, disappearing before our very eyes.
Great to see LCL liking the words and sentiments of Jeracrumbly Corbyn. I knew he could be won round.
Last edited by Max B Gold on Thu Oct 19, 2023 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Proposition Joe wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:37 am
So if calling for a ceasefire wasn't relevant to the point you were apparently trying to make, why did you mention it?
I was hoping for a ceasefire last week , the post above was highlighting certain Labour MP’s ignoring Starmer’s request for cross party unity on the matter. The 30 or so MP’s ignoring him are I’ll judging the situation and are not being objective.
What are key actors doing to achieve a ceasefire?
A ceasefire is for Palestinian children who once dreamt of peace.
A ceasefire is for terrified Israeli hostages, longing to be reunited with their loved ones.
A ceasefire is for humanity, disappearing before our very eyes.
Long slender neck wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:30 pm
No ceasefire will last with Hamas in power, they must be removed.
I'd argue that a ceasefire is just as unlikely with Netanyahu in power.
The Hamas assault pretty much destroyed what was left of his political capital. Pursuing this conflict may be his only opportunity to rescue something of his legacy and reputation with his supporters and backers.
If the Israeli IDF do enter Gaza, which seems very likely, in order to 'destroy Hamas', they will take many casualties, this is certain.
how will Israelis in say Tel Aviv react, seeing on the news, every day, that x number of young Israelis have been killed, and an even bigger number have been wounded?
If Iran, or any other Muslim state joins the war, all hell will break loose
We need a ceasefire, to protect the Children. Amazingly both the UK & US have vetoed this in the UN, in recent days
Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:30 pm
And, if there is not to be a ceasefire, what are the plans for post-invasion? What happens after Hamas is destroyed?
I'm no military tactical expert (yet - but give it time), but I've read that for any invasion to have a chance of success you need at least 3 attacking troops for every 1 defending troop in an open environment. This increases to 10 to 1 in a high-density urban environment, which Gaza is. And this doesn't take into account the troops that are then required to maintain patrols on captured infrastructure and population zones.
I've seen estimates that Hamas has 30,000 militants. That would mean Israel sending in 300,000 troops at a minimum (which is what I think they are amassing). And that high number is required because in that sort of environment you can expect a very high casualty rate. Before we even begin to contemplate the Palestinian casualties, the Israelis are going to be suddenly seeing a lot of body bags and limbless veterans hanging around.
Israel can try and bring those ratios down by cutting off utilities and supplies to weaken their opponents. But the reality is that Hamas will simply take what it needs from the civilian population.
I understand the reasoning put forward as to why Hamas "must be destroyed" (although I doubt such an outcome is achievable in reality). They are as much a blocker to any true lasting peace as Iran and the Netanyahu regime. But at what cost? This is like watching the build up to the Iraq War all over again, only with potentially more devastating consequences for the world.
Watching the Taliban return in Afghanistan recently does make it all seem quite futile, however after a massacre of 1000 civilians, something has to change.
Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 2:19 pm
I'm no military tactical expert (yet - but give it time), but I've read that for any invasion to have a chance of success you need at least 3 attacking troops for every 1 defending troop in an open environment. This increases to 10 to 1 in a high-density urban environment, which Gaza is. And this doesn't take into account the troops that are then required to maintain patrols on captured infrastructure and population zones.
I've seen estimates that Hamas has 30,000 militants. That would mean Israel sending in 300,000 troops at a minimum (which is what I think they are amassing). And that high number is required because in that sort of environment you can expect a very high casualty rate. Before we even begin to contemplate the Palestinian casualties, the Israelis are going to be suddenly seeing a lot of body bags and limbless veterans hanging around.
Israel can try and bring those ratios down by cutting off utilities and supplies to weaken their opponents. But the reality is that Hamas will simply take what it needs from the civilian population.
I understand the reasoning put forward as to why Hamas "must be destroyed" (although I doubt such an outcome is achievable in reality). They are as much a blocker to any true lasting peace as Iran and the Netanyahu regime. But at what cost? This is like watching the build up to the Iraq War all over again, only with potentially more devastating consequences for the world.
The ratios you quote hold good for taking a built up area. The number of troops required increases in an area reduced to rubble because mechanised vehicles are restricted by no clear pathways, IED's, etc. A quagmire.
Hamas dont represent all Palestinians. Israel is the biggest block to a lasting peace having broken the signed agreement with the PLO to withdraw to the pre 1967 war borders. Please stop seeing this conflict through only one lens.
Long slender neck wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 2:53 pm
Watching the Taliban return in Afghanistan recently does make it all seem quite futile, however after a massacre of 1000 civilians, something has to change.
Long slender neck wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 2:53 pm
Watching the Taliban return in Afghanistan recently does make it all seem quite futile, however after a massacre of 1000 civilians, something has to change.
Isnt it 4000 civilians ?
1,000, 4,000, 50,000....
These are all just numbers that soon wont matter. If this thing kicks off you'll probably look back on these numbers as the good ol' days.
Long slender neck wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 2:53 pm
Watching the Taliban return in Afghanistan recently does make it all seem quite futile, however after a massacre of 1000 civilians, something has to change.
Isnt it 4000 civilians ?
1,000, 4,000, 50,000....
These are all just numbers that soon wont matter. If this thing kicks off you'll probably look back on these numbers as the good ol' days.
I'll only look back & blame those who allowed it. Best thing about pacifism is everyone else is guilty.
Why aren't people discussing the big questions...namely if this escalates in a World War, what happens to the points Orient have gained this season, and can season ticket holders get a refund if the season is curtailed
spen666 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:19 pm
Why aren't people discussing the big questions...namely if this escalates in a World War, what happens to the points Orient have gained this season, and can season ticket holders get a refund if the season is curtailed
It's time for everyone to come together and scapegoat the EFL and Mark Devlin for their imaginary actions in this imaginary scenario.
Stowaway wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 5:30 pm
Why is this one particular strike being questioned, as opposed to the hundreds of other Israeli air strikes over the last few days? Is it just because it hit a hospital, a hospital that had already been hit by an Israeli missile?
We’re hardly likely to get a definitive answer because no independent experts are going to be allowed to check it out, but it seems odd that of all the air strikes, this is the one that’s being questioned. Just saying.
Good question. If the ground invasion of Gaza goes ahead proper, whether 50 or 500 people died will become a statistical irrelevance. I think there's a few reasons why this story matters.
The speed and eagerness at which certain media outlets, politicians and public commentators were willing to grab onto whichever narrative best supported their world view was telling. Any emerging evidence that challenged their 'opponents' was then equally eagerly pounced upon and weaponised against the other side. In other words, it's the same culture war divides we're seeing playing out in other arenas.
But, there's also the reaction we've seen unfold across the Arab world. A large proportion of the population arrived at the conclusion from the get-=go that this was an Israeli strike. No amount of evidence or persuasion will convince them otherwise. This has seen uprisings and public displays of anger towards both Israel and any government figures in those countries who have demonstrated willingness to normalise relations with Israel.
The outcome is that the normalisation process between Israel and Arab countries is on ice, if not finished. And, the leaders of the West Bank, Jordan and Egypt have all cancelled meetings with POTUS, which were intended to achieve some semblance of unity.
Who would benefit from the Arab world arriving at the conclusion that it did so quickly and so robustly?
Who would benefit from the pausing of all normalisation talks?
Who would benefit from the cancelation of unity meetings?
If Iran are not behind this, then they sure must be rubbing their hands together with their unbelievable luck. And if they are behind it then they are playing an absolute blinder.
And the events surrounding the explosion at the hospital is now pivotal to all of the above. From a political and regional security perspective, it no longer matters who did it.
That’s all well argued, but several days on and I’ve seen nothing from any reliable accredited source that it was anything other than an Israeli missile. Given that Gaza is in the middle of a full-on assault, I can’t see why anyone is questioning the accepted narrative. It’s like blaming the Home Guard for a bomb strike on the Whitechapel Hospital back in 1940. It’s possible, but f*** me, it’s highly unlikely.
Videos show rockets being fired towards Israel with the hospital being between the launch point and the target. The Israeli say hundred of Hamas rockets have actually landed in Gaza. These Hamas guys seem to put their military objectives well above the welfare of their fellow citizens
Israel tweeted that they had blown the hospital up, and had killed Hama's terrorists, but a couple of hours later the tweet was deleted.
Some people however screenshotted the original tweet . There's little doubt Israel was responsible. They had warned the hospital 3 says earlier to evacuate, because they were going to attack it.
Israel has a track record of lying about these types of things
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:25 pm
Israel tweeted that they had blown the hospital up, and had killed Hama's terrorists, but a couple of hours later the tweet was deleted.
Some people however screenshotted the original tweet . There's little doubt Israel was responsible. They had warned the hospital 3 says earlier to evacuate, because they were going to attack it.
Israel has a track record of lying about these types of things
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:25 pm
Israel tweeted that they had blown the hospital up, and had killed Hama's terrorists, but a couple of hours later the tweet was deleted.
Some people however screenshotted the original tweet . There's little doubt Israel was responsible. They had warned the hospital 3 says earlier to evacuate, because they were going to attack it.
Israel has a track record of lying about these types of things
Do Israel have a Twitter account then? Who is the account holder? Sound a LOB to me.
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:25 pm
Israel tweeted that they had blown the hospital up, and had killed Hama's terrorists, but a couple of hours later the tweet was deleted.
Some people however screenshotted the original tweet . There's little doubt Israel was responsible. They had warned the hospital 3 says earlier to evacuate, because they were going to attack it.
Israel has a track record of lying about these types of things
Do Israel have a Twitter account then? Who is the account holder? Sound a LOB to me.
If course Israel has a Twitter account, as does the IDF, as does the Israeli Pm (@israeliPM)
