Russia / Ukraine Watch

[Mistadobalina]

Russia has committed what 150k troops to Ukraine? A fair amount of which is lost by now. Bearing in mind Putin has to maintain some level of military presence across its enormous borders, they're already quite stretched in terms of its professional army, which pundits seem to be saying is why they're concentrating forces in a smaller area.

Ukraine meanwhile has about 250k in its army proper, millions more as reservists, militia, irregular troops etc. Granted, a lot of these soldiers aren't going to be that well trained but Ukraine is nearly on a total war footing, which Russian isn't. Obviously Russia has the capacity to massively increase its numbers but the financial and morale cast of that is enormous.

We're inching towards arming the Ukrainians with much more offensive power. If that trend continues and they get jets/modern tanks/modern artillery, then you'd assume they can start seriously hurting the Russians.

[Mistadobalina]

The poles and Slovakians have donated a load of Soviet era planes, anti aircraft gear and tanks to Ukraine in the last couple of days and now the Russians have essentially abandoned the west of the country, I'd have thought supply to the Ukrainian military can go pretty much unchecked now.

Is Putin's idea to overwhelm the east of country now, dig in to face off the Ukrainians in the west and then try to broker a peace where they absorb the 'independent' regions?

[Dextercoindexter]

The poles and Slovakians have donated a load of Soviet era planes, anti aircraft gear and tanks to Ukraine in the last couple of days and now the Russians have essentially abandoned the west of the country, I'd have thought supply to the Ukrainian military can go pretty much unchecked now.

Is Putin's idea to overwhelm the east of country now, dig in to face off the Ukrainians in the west and then try to broker a peace where they absorb the 'independent' regions?

Are you another ‘Armchair General?’
You got your plastic soldiers and toy army trucks out on your coffee table?

How would you ever comprehend what is going on there with propaganda rife in war as has always been?

All we can pray for is this ridiculous war is stopped as soon as possible.

[Mistadobalina]

Weird alias. Stick to simping for the Chancellor's wife.

[Max B Gold]

The poles and Slovakians have donated a load of Soviet era planes, anti aircraft gear and tanks to Ukraine in the last couple of days and now the Russians have essentially abandoned the west of the country, I'd have thought supply to the Ukrainian military can go pretty much unchecked now.

Is Putin's idea to overwhelm the east of country now, dig in to face off the Ukrainians in the west and then try to broker a peace where they absorb the 'independent' regions?

Sounds like a plan, for now. A ceasefire on those terms would enable the Russians to regroup ready for the next big push. The two pronged attack was to test the resolve and capability of the Ukrainian forces. The main objective was always in the East and attacking from the North drew forces away from the East. The Ukrainians in the East, led by the neo nazi Azov Brigades, have fought for every inch of territory and survived intense bombardment from land, sea and air. I suspect they will be overwhelmed soon

The Soviet era equipment is of limited value because it's old, there isn't much of it and crews will need to be trained to make it effective which takes time. Modern wars are won and lost in the air through aircraft, drones, missiles etc. The Russians have plenty of those. The Ukrainians not so much and they desperately need it to deplete the Russian heavy artillery which gives them a real advantage on the battlefield, as well as protecting against the bombardment of urban areas. This is where the West come in.

I hope as the bodies pile up in Russia the people there rise up and remove the new Czar and he is arrested and is made to pay for his war of aggression and the crimes committed.

[tuffers#1]

If/when chemical weapons get used Biden is going to have a really hard time arriving on an argument against some form of direct involvement. It's consistently the red line that western countries say cannot be crossed.

If the arming of Ukraine continues to step up, then at some point presumably Ukraine's big numerical advantage comes into play? Might be that Russia then starts to conscript and pours in masses of poorly trained and equipped troops, but then that surely would make the domestic situation in Russia much more perilous for Putin as it'd be an admission that things are going terribly.

Reports coming out about possible chemical weapons being used yesterday/early this morning.

[Max B Gold]

The poles and Slovakians have donated a load of Soviet era planes, anti aircraft gear and tanks to Ukraine in the last couple of days and now the Russians have essentially abandoned the west of the country, I'd have thought supply to the Ukrainian military can go pretty much unchecked now.

Is Putin's idea to overwhelm the east of country now, dig in to face off the Ukrainians in the west and then try to broker a peace where they absorb the 'independent' regions?

Are you another ‘Armchair General?’
You got your plastic soldiers and toy army trucks out on your coffee table?

How would you ever comprehend what is going on there with propaganda rife in war as has always been?

All we can pray for is this ridiculous war is stopped as soon as possible.

Is it school holiday time again?

[Max B Gold]

If/when chemical weapons get used Biden is going to have a really hard time arriving on an argument against some form of direct involvement. It's consistently the red line that western countries say cannot be crossed.

If the arming of Ukraine continues to step up, then at some point presumably Ukraine's big numerical advantage comes into play? Might be that Russia then starts to conscript and pours in masses of poorly trained and equipped troops, but then that surely would make the domestic situation in Russia much more perilous for Putin as it'd be an admission that things are going terribly.

Reports coming out about possible chemical weapons being used yesterday/early this morning.

Who used them? I'm going to need some serious verification on this.

[tuffers#1]

The poles and Slovakians have donated a load of Soviet era planes, anti aircraft gear and tanks to Ukraine in the last couple of days and now the Russians have essentially abandoned the west of the country, I'd have thought supply to the Ukrainian military can go pretty much unchecked now.

Is Putin's idea to overwhelm the east of country now, dig in to face off the Ukrainians in the west and then try to broker a peace where they absorb the 'independent' regions?

Sounds like a plan, for now. A ceasefire on those terms would enable the Russians to regroup ready for the next big push. The two pronged attack was to test the resolve and capability of the Ukrainian forces. The main objective was always in the East and attacking from the North drew forces away from the East. The Ukrainians in the East, led by the neo nazi Azov Brigades, have fought for every inch of territory and survived intense bombardment from land, sea and air. I suspect they will be overwhelmed soon

The Soviet era equipment is of limited value because it's old, there isn't much of it and crews will need to be trained to make it effective which takes time. Modern wars are won and lost in the air through aircraft, drones, missiles etc. The Russians have plenty of those. The Ukrainians not so much and they desperately need it to deplete the Russian heavy artillery which gives them a real advantage on the battlefield, as well as protecting against the bombardment of urban areas. This is where the West come in.

I hope as the bodies pile up in Russia the people there rise up and remove the new Czar and he is arrested and is made to pay for his war of aggression and the crimes committed.

Troops pulled out to attack ukraine have had some sent back to.defend the peace zone between Azerbaijan & Armenia

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-sa ... 022-03-26/

Russia could get very stretched

[tuffers#1]

If/when chemical weapons get used Biden is going to have a really hard time arriving on an argument against some form of direct involvement. It's consistently the red line that western countries say cannot be crossed.

If the arming of Ukraine continues to step up, then at some point presumably Ukraine's big numerical advantage comes into play? Might be that Russia then starts to conscript and pours in masses of poorly trained and equipped troops, but then that surely would make the domestic situation in Russia much more perilous for Putin as it'd be an admission that things are going terribly.

Reports coming out about possible chemical weapons being used yesterday/early this morning.

Who used them? I'm going to need some serious verification on this.

was on one of the news sites. war minister here saying , if true everything is on the table .

[tuffers#1]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/al ... 022-04-12/

Here you go

[Mistadobalina]

The poles and Slovakians have donated a load of Soviet era planes, anti aircraft gear and tanks to Ukraine in the last couple of days and now the Russians have essentially abandoned the west of the country, I'd have thought supply to the Ukrainian military can go pretty much unchecked now.

Is Putin's idea to overwhelm the east of country now, dig in to face off the Ukrainians in the west and then try to broker a peace where they absorb the 'independent' regions?

Sounds like a plan, for now. A ceasefire on those terms would enable the Russians to regroup ready for the next big push. The two pronged attack was to test the resolve and capability of the Ukrainian forces. The main objective was always in the East and attacking from the North drew forces away from the East. The Ukrainians in the East, led by the neo nazi Azov Brigades, have fought for every inch of territory and survived intense bombardment from land, sea and air. I suspect they will be overwhelmed soon

The Soviet era equipment is of limited value because it's old, there isn't much of it and crews will need to be trained to make it effective which takes time. Modern wars are won and lost in the air through aircraft, drones, missiles etc. The Russians have plenty of those. The Ukrainians not so much and they desperately need it to deplete the Russian heavy artillery which gives them a real advantage on the battlefield, as well as protecting against the bombardment of urban areas. This is where the West come in.

I hope as the bodies pile up in Russia the people there rise up and remove the new Czar and he is arrested and is made to pay for his war of aggression and the crimes committed.

Would Russia really come back for a round two? They've been exposed as a proper paper tiger, lost something like 20% of their forces in Ukraine so far, and Ukraine would surely be in the EU the moment there's a ceasefire, and then able to call in the mutual defence clause of the treaty. In whatever breather a ceasefire offered, the west would surely use that time to flood Ukraine with modern arms as well, so their kit would be miles better than what Russia would be able to field.

Really struggling to see how Russia extract a 'win' from this. It just looks like such an unbelievably stupid miscalculation on every level.

[Currywurst and Chips]

The EU aren't going to drop their entry criteria to swift in Ukraine accession, there's a reason they're still not members 8 years after Maidan.

Even if they did it'd be vetoed by members who don't want to get involved militarily

[Max B Gold]

The poles and Slovakians have donated a load of Soviet era planes, anti aircraft gear and tanks to Ukraine in the last couple of days and now the Russians have essentially abandoned the west of the country, I'd have thought supply to the Ukrainian military can go pretty much unchecked now.

Is Putin's idea to overwhelm the east of country now, dig in to face off the Ukrainians in the west and then try to broker a peace where they absorb the 'independent' regions?

Sounds like a plan, for now. A ceasefire on those terms would enable the Russians to regroup ready for the next big push. The two pronged attack was to test the resolve and capability of the Ukrainian forces. The main objective was always in the East and attacking from the North drew forces away from the East. The Ukrainians in the East, led by the neo nazi Azov Brigades, have fought for every inch of territory and survived intense bombardment from land, sea and air. I suspect they will be overwhelmed soon

The Soviet era equipment is of limited value because it's old, there isn't much of it and crews will need to be trained to make it effective which takes time. Modern wars are won and lost in the air through aircraft, drones, missiles etc. The Russians have plenty of those. The Ukrainians not so much and they desperately need it to deplete the Russian heavy artillery which gives them a real advantage on the battlefield, as well as protecting against the bombardment of urban areas. This is where the West come in.

I hope as the bodies pile up in Russia the people there rise up and remove the new Czar and he is arrested and is made to pay for his war of aggression and the crimes committed.

Would Russia really come back for a round two?

Yes, as long as Putin and his ilk are in control.


They've been exposed as a proper paper tiger, lost something like 20% of their forces in Ukraine so far, and Ukraine would surely be in the EU the moment there's a ceasefire, and then able to call in the mutual defence clause of the treaty.

I'm not convinced there could be a ceasire on those terms. the Russians will see it as joining NATO by the back door. I wouldn't dismiss Russia as a paper tiger. They've miscalculated and performed badly but they would win in the long run. The war continues.

In whatever breather a ceasefire offered, the west would surely use that time to flood Ukraine with modern arms as well, so their kit would be miles better than what Russia would be able to field.

Yes that would make sense but any ceasefire is likely to see the Russians occupying territory in the East and flooding Ukraine with weapons just makes a further conflict a certainty.

Really struggling to see how Russia extract a 'win' from this. It just looks like such an unbelievably stupid miscalculation on every level.

I believe they did miscalculate and have lost some battles but not the war.

[Dunners]

Interesting 23 minute view

The full interview is fascinating

Is this the same Peter Zeihan that had Jezza C down as an unpatriotic Commie anti-Semite?

You're alright, thanks.

If he'd have said that then that would be arguable to some degree (not saying I agree here - so don't go full-on Mendoza). However, what he actually said (at least, in a presentation he gave to some mid-west agricultural forum) was that Jezza was an actual Nazi. Obviously this is bonkers, but Zeihan's geopolitical meta-analysis is actually quite good, so long as you accept he has a constant semi for George Bush Snr. Just don't rely on him for the detail.

[Max B Gold]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/al ... 022-04-12/

Here you go

So the use of chemical weapons not confirmed. Thanks. Just a load of Tory blow hards mouthing off.

[Max B Gold]

The full interview is fascinating

Is this the same Peter Zeihan that had Jezza C down as an unpatriotic Commie anti-Semite?

You're alright, thanks.

If he'd have said that then that would be arguable to some degree (not saying I agree here - so don't go full-on Mendoza). However, what he actually said (at least, in a presentation he gave to some mid-west agricultural forum) was that Jezza was an actual Nazi. Obviously this is bonkers, but Zeihan's geopolitical meta-analysis is actually quite good, so long as you accept he has a constant semi for George Bush Snr. Just don't rely on him for the detail.

FFS!! So now you rely on someone who doesn't know what a nazi is for your geo-political analysis. Get a grip, son.

[Dunners]

Would Russia really come back for a round two? They've been exposed as a proper paper tiger, lost something like 20% of their forces in Ukraine so far, and Ukraine would surely be in the EU the moment there's a ceasefire, and then able to call in the mutual defence clause of the treaty. In whatever breather a ceasefire offered, the west would surely use that time to flood Ukraine with modern arms as well, so their kit would be miles better than what Russia would be able to field.

Really struggling to see how Russia extract a 'win' from this. It just looks like such an unbelievably stupid miscalculation on every level.

I just can't see the EU (or NATO) accepting Ukrainian membership for the foreseeable future.

[Max Fowler]

The full interview is fascinating

Is this the same Peter Zeihan that had Jezza C down as an unpatriotic Commie anti-Semite?

You're alright, thanks.

If he'd have said that then that would be arguable to some degree (not saying I agree here - so don't go full-on Mendoza). However, what he actually said (at least, in a presentation he gave to some mid-west agricultural forum) was that Jezza was an actual Nazi. Obviously this is bonkers, but Zeihan's geopolitical meta-analysis is actually quite good, so long as you accept he has a constant semi for George Bush Snr. Just don't rely on him for the detail.

" Polls at this time point to a strong Conservative showing, largely because British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is a sexist, anti-Semitic, anti-Western, authoritarian, unrepentant Stalinesque bigot"

He said it.

https://zeihan.com/the-cutting-room-fil ... d-kingdom/

[Dunners]

Is this the same Peter Zeihan that had Jezza C down as an unpatriotic Commie anti-Semite?

You're alright, thanks.

If he'd have said that then that would be arguable to some degree (not saying I agree here - so don't go full-on Mendoza). However, what he actually said (at least, in a presentation he gave to some mid-west agricultural forum) was that Jezza was an actual Nazi. Obviously this is bonkers, but Zeihan's geopolitical meta-analysis is actually quite good, so long as you accept he has a constant semi for George Bush Snr. Just don't rely on him for the detail.

" Polls at this time point to a strong Conservative showing, largely because British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is a sexist, anti-Semitic, anti-Western, authoritarian, unrepentant Stalinesque bigot"

He said it.

https://zeihan.com/the-cutting-room-fil ... d-kingdom/

So he did. Fair enough.

[Dextercoindexter]

For anyone interested, Putin is currently doing his annual end of year news conference. He's sounding proper demented and paranoid.

Are you professionally qualified or just Readers Digest Home Medicine ‘expert?’

[tuffers#1]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/al ... 022-04-12/

Here you go

So the use of chemical weapons not confirmed. Thanks. Just a load of Tory blow hards mouthing off.

I did say REPORTS !
I never claimed they were used , so pop your spen attitude back in its box thanks Maxy ,theres a good bairn .

[tuffers#1]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/al ... 022-04-12/

Here you go

So the use of chemical weapons not confirmed. Thanks. Just a load of Tory blow hards mouthing off.

The voices of Ukrainian Boots on Ground rather than Tory blow hards
If we are honest Max !

[Max B Gold]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/al ... 022-04-12/

Here you go

So the use of chemical weapons not confirmed. Thanks. Just a load of Tory blow hards mouthing off.

The voices of Ukrainian Boots on Ground rather than Tory blow hards
If we are honest Max !

These reports? Any of them been confirmed yet and backed up with hard evidence?

[tuffers#1]

So the use of chemical weapons not confirmed. Thanks. Just a load of Tory blow hards mouthing off.

The voices of Ukrainian Boots on Ground rather than Tory blow hards
If we are honest Max !

These reports? Any of them been confirmed yet and backed up with hard evidence?

Do you not understand the word POSSIBLE ? Christ on a bike Max there are times you are as dense as a lump of lead !!