Russia / Ukraine Watch

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Excellent. I'll see you there. I promise not to take the micky with my drinks and cane your wallet too hard.

Of all the bullshine posted on here, this takes the biscuits.

[Dunners]

It's confirmed. Putin has ordered his troops into Eastern Ukraine. Initially as a "peacekeeping mission", but it is hard to envisage any outcome other than outright war and devastation of countless lives.

Look, I realise that this is perhaps not the most important thing right now, but I really think we should all agree that I won this thread.

[The Mindsweep]

I don't think the West will support any Ukrainian intervention. They will put pressure on the Ukrainians to let Putin have what, let's face it, he has been controlling for the past few years

(The above is more in hope than anything else. Any escalation doesn't bear thinking about)

[Smendrick Feaselberg]

I don't think the West will support any Ukrainian intervention. They will put pressure on the Ukrainians to let Putin have what, let's face it, he has been controlling for the past few years

(The above is more in hope than anything else. Any escalation doesn't bear thinking about)

And after that appeasement? History tells us it won't stop there, especially as Putin isn't someone who will honour an agreement.

[tuffers#1]

It's confirmed. Putin has ordered his troops into Eastern Ukraine. Initially as a "peacekeeping mission", but it is hard to envisage any outcome other than outright war and devastation of countless lives.

Look, I realise that this is perhaps not the most important thing right now, but I really think we should all agree that I won this thread.

Vlad says Not True He has sent.
" peace keeping forces into 2 independent states " .

[The Mindsweep]

I don't think the West will support any Ukrainian intervention. They will put pressure on the Ukrainians to let Putin have what, let's face it, he has been controlling for the past few years

(The above is more in hope than anything else. Any escalation doesn't bear thinking about)

And after that appeasement? History tells us it won't stop there, especially as Putin isn't someone who will honour an agreement.

It's not the same as the 30's, Russia is not looking to conquer Europe. Besides, they haven't got the capability to do so. Western governments are looking at what gets them votes, what happens in Ukraine doesn't play in most voters minds.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Dunnem 1 v 0 Chomsky.

Ffs.

[Max B Gold]

Dunnem 1 v 0 Chomsky.

Ffs.

It wasn't even a close contest.

[RedDwarf 1881]

It's confirmed. Putin has ordered his troops into Eastern Ukraine. Initially as a "peacekeeping mission", but it is hard to envisage any outcome other than outright war and devastation of countless lives.

Look, I realise that this is perhaps not the most important thing right now, but I really think we should all agree that I won this thread.

Vlad says Not True He has sent.
" peace keeping forces into 2 independent states " .

I think Russia was always going to annex those two breakaway regions. Putin now has a land corridor to Crimea. The question now is will he go further. If he does then it’s war.

[tuffers#1]

It's confirmed. Putin has ordered his troops into Eastern Ukraine. Initially as a "peacekeeping mission", but it is hard to envisage any outcome other than outright war and devastation of countless lives.

Look, I realise that this is perhaps not the most important thing right now, but I really think we should all agree that I won this thread.

Vlad says Not True He has sent.
" peace keeping forces into 2 independent states " .

I think Russia was always going to annex those two breakaway regions. Putin now has a land corridor to Crimea. The question now is will he go further. If he does then it’s war.

I thought it was war already

[RedDwarf 1881]

In a sense yes but it’s mostly been sporadic fighting since 2014. Now we are on the precipice of a full war

[tuffers#1]

No, the war red , has been weakening any type of left wing communist entity to ever exist .

Its been on going since the 1st revolution against failing capitalist regimes .

[The Mindsweep]

I don't think the West will support any Ukrainian intervention. They will put pressure on the Ukrainians to let Putin have what, let's face it, he has been controlling for the past few years

(The above is more in hope than anything else. Any escalation doesn't bear thinking about)

And after that appeasement? History tells us it won't stop there, especially as Putin isn't someone who will honour an agreement.

The West have been appeasing Russia for over 25 years. With Britain at the forefront, the looted money from Russian Oligarchs has flooded into property etc in London and has meant that Russia is at the very heart of the British political and social system. Anybody who owns a house anywhere in Britain has benefitted from the knock on affect as well. Russia, with Putin at the helm, is emboldened and expects to keep on getting what it wants. It will end at some point but we are nowhere near that point yet.

And as for honouring agreements, pot calling kettle black in the case of our current government

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

The absolute nerve of the Russians, sending in groups of peace keepers, when everyone knows it’s Team America who are the Worlds Police.

[PutneyO]

Can't we appease Putin by giving him some of Prince Andrews titles ? Colonel of the Grenadier Guards, Commodore-in-Chief of the Fleet Air Arm

[ComeOnYouOs]

There are many similarities between now and what was happening in central Europe in the 30's.
Putin sees himself like an Empiror of old, as did Hitler.
Hitler marched his troops into Austria, on some pretext, and the rest of Europe ( France + Britain ) huffed and puffed, but didn't do anything about it.
Then a little later Hitler marched into Sudentenland, and again he was allowed to. Only when he tried it a third time in Poland, did we finally respond.
What Putin's doing is very similar. First Crimea, a load of huffing and puffing, but nothing more, now he marched his troops into Donbass, and again just huffing and puffing.
The West needs to put up or shut up. The only way you are going to get Putin out of Ukraine is by force, he ain't going to go any other way. Diplomacy is lost on him, as it was on Hitler.
If the West isn't prepared to physically get Russia out, then they should say no more and accept it. Which one they choose I have no idea, but just moaning at Putin doesn't seem to bother him too much

[Max B Gold]

Has Dunners gone off to join the Ukrainian army. He's gone very quiet.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

He’s taken the day off ‘work’ and is out on the pee celebrating the start of the war.

[Give it to Jabo]

And the endgame is?

[Give it to Jabo]

Prince Andrew is no doubt glad that the heat is off him…

[StillSpike]

Prince Andrew is no doubt glad that the heat is off him…

It's notable that the Russkies waited until the British Military lost one of its most highly decorated commanding officers before they marched in. They were obviously scared of him, what with all those medals and stuff.

[Long slender neck]

Andy couldve defeated the Russians without breaking a sweat. Shame we've lost him at this important time.

[Long slender neck]

What would happen if Putin was killed?

[Dunners]

Right, everyone ready for phase 2?

Some boarders above need putting right on a few points they are unsure of:

“It's not the same as the 30's, Russia is not looking to conquer Europe. Besides, they haven't got the capability to do so.”

True in part, however Russia would certainly like to bring a substantial part of Europe under its sphere of influence. Should it proceed to smash Ukraine, neighbouring states may start reconsidering their alliance options.

“I think Russia was always going to annex those two breakaway regions. Putin now has a land corridor to Crimea. The question now is will he go further. If he does then it’s war.”

Assuming Russia forces only occupy those areas controlled by separatist groups, it does not have a land corridor to Crimea. To gain the land corridor Russia will need to proceed past the current trenches and further into Ukrainian controlled territory.

Will he go further? Well, it would be incredibly stupid of him to have turned Russia into a pariah state and to incur all the coming sanctions if all he does is occupy what he effectively already had. A further invasion is almost certain. It is already war.

“Western governments are looking at what gets them votes, what happens in Ukraine doesn't play in most voters minds.”

Ordinarily this is true. But not right now. And this actually has me more worried.

Look back at recent clips of Johnson, Biden, Macron, Blinken and other allied world leaders (with a bit of an exception for the Germans) giving speeches and interviews on the crisis, and what they believe to be the risks. There is a pattern.

They are all being deliberately clear, unambiguous, and frank. There is no room for misunderstanding. There is no way any of them can claim to have been misunderstood should it suit them politically or domestically in future. Why would they do that? What do they know that has compelled so many of them to speak in such a way whereby they risk their own credibility?

I believe that most of the West has played this crisis as well as it could 9notwithstanding that we should have acted in 2014 and not been compromised by Russian money in the first place). All of the intelligence that has been revealed to us so far has turned out to be broadly correct. They have done two things:

1. They have shone a light on all of Russia’s intentions, to deny them any opportunity of credible deniability.

2. They have provided Putin an off-ramp for de-escalation, by offering up their own reputation as a sacrifice. He could have backed down and then mocked Biden, Johnson et al for being so spectacularly wrong and alarmist and lacking credibility. Yet he still chose war.

Why would they do that? Why would a sitting POTUS be prepared to risk his reputation and legacy? Why would Macron by willing to be humiliated by Putin – in an election year?

The existence of these questions worries me. Our leaders appear to be doing something we’re not used to and therefore are not recognising. They’re being statesmen. Every bit of intelligence they have shared with the public has been correct. What additional intelligence must they therefore have, which they have not yet shared with us, that is compelling them to act in this way?

“And the endgame is?”

Destruction of the world order you, I and everyone else on here has benefited from for the last 70 years. A system that has brought us unprecedented peace, security, health and prosperity. And something we have come to take for granted.

“Dunnem 1 v 0 Chomsky.”

Chomsky who?

What would happen if Putin was killed?

The Russian leadership is a rapidly aging and diminishing cabal. Killing Putin, or taking out a few of his close acquaintances, would effectively cut the head off the snake. Part of the reason for the coming sanctions is not just to punish those who are responsible, but to motivate those with the opportunity to assassinate him. For this threat to subside, Putin does need to die. But he knows that, and this makes him especially dangerous and unpredictable.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Such a bed wetter.

How have they offered up their own reputations? If putin had backed down, they’d simply say their diplomacy and threats of sanctions had worked. You’re trying to find stuff that isn’t there.