Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:22 am
4000 deaths a day sage reckon. I can't see that happening.
Well, you've been pretty much spot on all the way through this with it not being that bad really. 4000 deaths is if we do nothing, you've never really got your head round that have you?
When did I say it won't be that bad?
I just think sage are scaremongering a bit, a lot of their predictions have been wrong. Not much need to publicise a scenario that would never be used and is probably wrong too.
Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:47 am
Considering most of the deaths are the over 80s, can't see many of the 18-40s in hospital dying.
He also said the virus has changed
he said they are coming in diseased
The next couple of weeks deaths will follow .
Take care of your loved ones what ever age they are.
Dont be complacent.
Again i will follow the advice of an Expert
Calum Semple .
Malcolm Gracie Semple OBE FRCPCH FRCPE FHEA, known as Calum Semple, is professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool and a consultant respiratory paediatrician at Alder Hey Children's Hospital Liverpool
Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:22 am
4000 deaths a day sage reckon. I can't see that happening.
Well, you've been pretty much spot on all the way through this with it not being that bad really. 4000 deaths is if we do nothing, you've never really got your head round that have you?
When did I say it won't be that bad?
I just think sage are scaremongering a bit, a lot of their predictions have been wrong. Not much need to publicise a scenario that would never be used and is probably wrong too.
Yup they predicted 200 deaths a day end of november
Very wrong we got there a Month early !
Be scared fella if not for you for the people you love .
I know we arent mates , but i couldnt think of anything worse
than a young family being destroyed by this sh*tty disease
I just think sage are scaremongering a bit, a lot of their predictions have been wrong. Not much need to publicise a scenario that would never be used and is probably wrong too.
Their predictions have been pretty accurate. You are again showing you don't understand the difference between a projection and a prediction.
Commiserations to anyone that needs to go to a supermarket today or tomorrow.
I got a delivery on thursday & i didnt get my butter
Better nip out early .
Similar here - needed to go out this morning to get fresh food for the next few days (bread, milk, veg etc) which I don't order from Ocado. Tesco was busy with crazy panic buyers already at 8am, with one lady having a trolley full of large bottles of semi skimmed milk. Not sure what's wrong with people.
I just think sage are scaremongering a bit, a lot of their predictions have been wrong. Not much need to publicise a scenario that would never be used and is probably wrong too.
Their predictions have been pretty accurate. You are again showing you don't understand the difference between a projection and a prediction.
I understand. But tell me what is the point panicking people with this figure?
Additionally if the infection rate is rising so rapidly that lockdown is inevitable why am I reading stories like local MPs, on both sides, in West Yorkshire complaining about going in to Tier 3 as it will "ruin people's lives and cripple the local economy"?
It's whether you think saving some lives is worth the economic damage and other effects of a lockdown. I don't think it is with the current levels of excess deaths, but that could change
I was in the pet shop yesterday buying raw meet for my Malinois and the guy beside the freezers was piling crate after crate of tinned dog food in his trolley. I asked him "is your dog hungry?" He said "something like that". We got to the till and he was in front of me, he only had the tinned dog food and it cost £196.00 panic buying or what?
Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:13 am
It's whether you think saving some lives is worth the economic damage and other effects of a lockdown. I don't think it is with the current levels of excess deaths, but that could change
I think that all life should be equal and that yes the cost is worth paying. The government can create money whenever they like and one of the proposal during the financial crisis was to distribute money to each person to spend back in the economy within a certain time thus creating jobs and growth. Maybe that's a school of thinking now?
If you want to look it up its called helicopter money principle.
Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:13 am
It's whether you think saving some lives is worth the economic damage and other effects of a lockdown. I don't think it is with the current levels of excess deaths, but that could change
I think that all life should be equal and that yes the cost is worth paying. The government can create money whenever they like and one of the proposal during the financial crisis was to distribute money to each person to spend back in the economy within a certain time thus creating jobs and growth. Maybe that's a school of thinking now?
If you want to look it up its called helicopter money principle.
Helicopter Money is Central Banks lending money to Individuals
Citizen's dividend or Seigniorage are far more closely linked
To Governments giving it to individuals .
My daughter got it from a night out with six friends meeting up in a restaurant. One of the friends present knew she had tested positive a few days before. All six of them got it.
However, my daughter then came to visit us. I got home from work and she's sitting in the living room. FFS! She got what all the youngs get, loss of taste and smell, no energy
The trouble and I had to isolate for 14 days. This was not long after I had gone back to work after 5 months off. Marvellous.
So, that said I did and will continue to comply to protect my family, friends and community. It's not for me to spread disease.
I just think sage are scaremongering a bit, a lot of their predictions have been wrong. Not much need to publicise a scenario that would never be used and is probably wrong too.
Their predictions have been pretty accurate. You are again showing you don't understand the difference between a projection and a prediction.
I understand. But tell me what is the point panicking people with this figure?
If you understand then why do you keep referring to the projections as predictions and then saying they won't come true?
You also seem to be completely blind to the lag between cases and deaths. 'Excess deaths are low, still low, still low....oh sh*t'.
On top of that you can't see why you 'its just old people who are going to die' argument is a total crock, regardless of the morality of that approach. Unless you're advocating for not treating anyone over a certain age than as hospital capacity is stretched it affects everyone in need of care.
Its the pandering to people with a lack of understanding like this that have meant we're acting too late again. Meaning a longer lock down now than would have been the case if we'd done it a month ago. Saying that, seeing as there's no plan to sort out a proper track and trace system when numbers do fall it is all a bit pointless.
It’s not SAGE’s job to scaremonger. They look at facts and come up with a range of of predictions, and the 4,000 figure is the worst case scenario, ie: if the government does nothing.
Back at the start of all this my ex, who runs the biggest ICU in London, was told we were looking at 250,000 deaths of the government didn’t act fast. That could yet still happen.
Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:04 pm
Boris late.. like his decision making
Wonder if there's a last minute change to what Peston was suggesting since it was already pushed back from 4pm
That's the pattern that this administration has followed all along (not just in the pandemic - in all aspects of government) They leak out the actions they're planning to take via Peston or Kuenssberg, then see what the public reaction is, and then make last minute changes once they see how the wind is blowing. Twitter is the biggest Focus Group you can find.
