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Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:06 am
by Horient
Just stumbled across his account after he retweeted something Orient posted.
After each game he posts the xG (expected goals) charts for the matches which I found quite interesting!
Against Hartlepool we were only expected to score 1.87 goals as two of the five goals were hard chances (Drinnan x2) so reduces the expectation from our shots. Whereas in the Mansfield game we were also expected to score 1.54 goals with Mansfield mustering 0.14 expected goals.
Just one for the number crunchers out there!
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:31 am
by Fisch
Who would be the end user of this analysis? I'm struggling to see the value in it.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:01 am
by Max B Gold
Milano wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:31 am
Who would be the end user of this analysis? I'm struggling to see the value in it.
It could be very useful for those fans who like to boo the team. If we are not achieving the expected goals target then booing could be activated to encourage them to score.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:09 am
by Ronnie Hotdogs
At the risk of sounding all Harry Redknapp, this is a load of old sh*t.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:57 am
by Max B Gold
Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:09 am
At the risk of sounding all Harry Redknapp, this is a load of old sh*t.
You don't like numbers do you? Is it a struggle for you?
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:31 am
by Ronnie Hotdogs
It’s the percentages that always get me.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:37 am
by Sid Bishop
Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:09 am
At the risk of sounding all Harry Redknapp, this is a load of old sh*t.
To quote Mark Twain ......'
'There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. ' (Mark Twain) Page 2 Statistics • 'Statistics is the art of never having to say you're wrong. ' Statistics is a collection of procedures and principles for gaining and processing information in order to make decisions when faced with uncertainty''
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:42 am
by Scuba Diver
Horient wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:06 am
After each game he posts the xG (expected goals) charts for the matches which I found quite interesting!
Fair enough fella, but what's the appeal? (genuine question)
I can't envisage personally, when. having just watched a football match to it's physical conclusion going "oh yeah, I just need to know what the score Might have been", based no doubt on some formulas or basic algorithms.
Am I missing something glaring here?...
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:52 am
by Ronnie Hotdogs
Scuba Diver wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 10:42 am
Horient wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:06 am
After each game he posts the xG (expected goals) charts for the matches which I found quite interesting!
Fair enough fella, but what's the appeal? (genuine question)
I can't envisage personally, when. having just watched a football match to it's physical conclusion going "oh yeah, I just need to know what the score Might have been", based no doubt on some formulas or basic algorithms.
Am I missing something glaring here?...
Nah. This is just a load of old guff for people that don’t understand the game.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:04 am
by TheTyrant
For a one off game it probably isn't that interesting as the sample sizes will be quite small, but it is useful looking at longer trends to see how the team is doing in terms of chance creation. Would definitely influence how you prioritise what needs more training or focus within the team.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:12 am
by Ronnie Hotdogs
TheTyrant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:04 am
For a one off game it probably isn't that interesting as the sample sizes will be quite small, but it is useful looking at longer trends to see how the team is doing in terms of chance creation. Would definitely influence how you prioritise what needs more training or focus within the team.
Do you really need that graph or would you know just from watching the games?
This is a load of old guff for Management Reporting to people that either 1) don’t watch games or 2) don’t understand games.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:20 am
by Max B Gold
Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:12 am
TheTyrant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:04 am
For a one off game it probably isn't that interesting as the sample sizes will be quite small, but it is useful looking at longer trends to see how the team is doing in terms of chance creation. Would definitely influence how you prioritise what needs more training or focus within the team.
Do you really need that graph or would you know just from watching the games?
This is a load of old guff for Management Reporting to people that either 1) don’t watch games or 2) don’t understand games.
If you're going to extract the information by merely watching the game might I suggest the use of the five bar gate system to record chance creation.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:37 am
by Ronnie Hotdogs
Not for the amount of chances we create.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:47 am
by BiggsyMalone
xG is a stupid and meaningless stat
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:52 am
by Max B Gold
BiggsyMalone wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:47 am
xG is a stupid and meaningless stat
All stats matter.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:07 pm
by Orient Punxx
All stats are equal but some stats are more equal than others.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:10 pm
by Ronnie Hotdogs
Stats Entertainment
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:10 pm
by Rich Tea Wellin
It gives insight into if your process is working, right? Over a long period of time, if you’re process is right, you should get results. But in a few games, the right process may not necessarily get you the right result, but it doesn’t mean you should change it.
Thanks for posting
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:31 pm
by Horient
TheTyrant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:04 am
For a one off game it probably isn't that interesting as the sample sizes will be quite small, but it is useful looking at longer trends to see how the team is doing in terms of chance creation. Would definitely influence how you prioritise what needs more training or focus within the team.
I asked Coley for the season so far and he provided the below. I imagine they use this tool for lots of different areas which he obviously won’t post but over time will build up a decent database. Being able to review by different ‘filters’, left side of pitch, right side, misplaced passes etc. On a larger sample size etc will have significant value.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:35 pm
by Rich Tea Wellin
Horient wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:31 pm
TheTyrant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:04 am
For a one off game it probably isn't that interesting as the sample sizes will be quite small, but it is useful looking at longer trends to see how the team is doing in terms of chance creation. Would definitely influence how you prioritise what needs more training or focus within the team.
I asked Coley for the season so far and he provided the below. I imagine they use this tool for lots of different areas which he obviously won’t post but over time will build up a decent database. Being able to review by different ‘filters’, left side of pitch, right side, misplaced passes etc. On a larger sample size etc will have significant value.
Would love to see this graph from Ross’ tenure. Can you have a negative xG?
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 1:07 pm
by Sid Bishop
Horient wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:06 am
Just stumbled across his account after he retweeted something Orient posted.
After each game he posts the xG (expected goals) charts for the matches which I found quite interesting!
Against Hartlepool we were only expected to score 1.87 goals as two of the five goals were hard chances (Drinnan x2) so reduces the expectation from our shots. Whereas in the Mansfield game we were also expected to score 1.54 goals with Mansfield mustering 0.14 expected goals.
Just one for the number crunchers out there!
Can they use it to predict the winning numbers for the lottery !
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 1:09 pm
by Ronnie Hotdogs
Horient wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:31 pm
TheTyrant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:04 am
For a one off game it probably isn't that interesting as the sample sizes will be quite small, but it is useful looking at longer trends to see how the team is doing in terms of chance creation. Would definitely influence how you prioritise what needs more training or focus within the team.
I asked Coley for the season so far and he provided the below. I imagine they use this tool for lots of different areas which he obviously won’t post but over time will build up a decent database. Being able to review by different ‘filters’, left side of pitch, right side, misplaced passes etc. On a larger sample size etc will have significant value.
Seriously, what is that graph supposed to tell us?
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:06 pm
by Dunners
I love graphs like this. I pad out various board and committee reports to make it look like stuff is happening and I'm worth what they pay me.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:00 pm
by Real Al
I'm not sure that graph on its own tells us much.
But, if you put it alongside actual goals, you could see how good we are at taking our chances. If you have xG at 3, but actual goals = 0, you've squandered at lot of chances (see Stevenage the other week). If the xG is 1, but we've scored 2, then our forwards have done well with the chances they've had.
You could probably get all that from watching tho.
Re: Coley Parry - Twitter
Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 8:36 pm
by BiggsyMalone
Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 1:09 pm
Horient wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:31 pm
TheTyrant wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:04 am
For a one off game it probably isn't that interesting as the sample sizes will be quite small, but it is useful looking at longer trends to see how the team is doing in terms of chance creation. Would definitely influence how you prioritise what needs more training or focus within the team.
I asked Coley for the season so far and he provided the below. I imagine they use this tool for lots of different areas which he obviously won’t post but over time will build up a decent database. Being able to review by different ‘filters’, left side of pitch, right side, misplaced passes etc. On a larger sample size etc will have significant value.
Seriously, what is that graph supposed to tell us?
That you could play dogshit, have little possession but scab 3 headers on target from set pieces and then claim we were dangerous at set pieces and should have scored 3 goals.