Inflation
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- Dunners
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Re: Inflation
Barring a couple of items all my business costs have gone up from between 7% and 30%, this last year.
My concept of inflation has been much higher than official figures for the last 10 years.
If you are eating and drinking out, you will see around a 10-20% increase in prices. This is not part of cpi. Of course they are dumping rpi which although has been watered down over time, was a much better indicator.
I recently heard that in America, if they used the 1980 definition of inflation, this would have running around 8% per annun since 2008. I suspect the same with all the tinkering to inflation in the UK.
My concept of inflation has been much higher than official figures for the last 10 years.
If you are eating and drinking out, you will see around a 10-20% increase in prices. This is not part of cpi. Of course they are dumping rpi which although has been watered down over time, was a much better indicator.
I recently heard that in America, if they used the 1980 definition of inflation, this would have running around 8% per annun since 2008. I suspect the same with all the tinkering to inflation in the UK.
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Re: Inflation
Inflation has been gamed by governments globally to avoid increasing interest rates for the last 10 years. This wont change, they don't call it ZIRP for nothing. We will never see interest rates above a few percent again, without a huge debt write off as it'll just cause society to collapse.
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Re: Inflation
Big problem coming for the government with their pension triple lock promise.
One of the indicators they use is expected to rise by 8% which means the same percentage rise to pensions.
This would cost an additional £5bn and the outrage it would cause from those who have hasd little or no rise. Then you have the pensioners many of whom will expect this rise to go ahead as per the agreement.
As of yesterday the chancellor would neither confirm or deny whether it would be paid at that rate.
One of the indicators they use is expected to rise by 8% which means the same percentage rise to pensions.
This would cost an additional £5bn and the outrage it would cause from those who have hasd little or no rise. Then you have the pensioners many of whom will expect this rise to go ahead as per the agreement.
As of yesterday the chancellor would neither confirm or deny whether it would be paid at that rate.
- Dunners
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Re: Inflation
Love the way the BBC are presenting it as the biggest increase "since records began in 1997".
As if nobody knows what is was during the 1970s and 1980s.
You can argue over the different indices (CPI, RPI, etc) but anything for a sensational headline.
As if nobody knows what is was during the 1970s and 1980s.
You can argue over the different indices (CPI, RPI, etc) but anything for a sensational headline.
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Re: Inflation
I think the highest inflation was 26% in 1976. This was RPI, which is much closer to the true inflation and without the statistical juggling to keep the figure as low as possible as they do with CPI.
- StillSpike
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Re: Inflation
Broadening this out to "wage inflation".
I was listening to the radio yesterday and there was a discussion around labour shortages in various industries - care, hospitality etc. I hadn't caught the name of the guest but they were from one of the unions, and they were arguing the rather obvious point that low pay was a big factor in the problem.
The presenter - doing the usual "Devil's Avocado" thing, then came back with "but wages have gone up and up, look, there's "wage inflation" running at 8%".
Now, my question is - how has anyone calculated "wage inflation" at 8%? Who's getting all the pay rises? (that's 2 questions, I guess)
The public sector still seem to be in a pay freeze and everyone on NMW have only seen a 2% increase on 2020. Now those 2 areas alone are a massive chunk of the workforce, so where are all these huge increases? I know HGV drives have just seen a big jump, but as a % of the total labour pool that's a drop in the ocean, surely. Are there other large employers splashing double digit wage increases around - or is this "wage inflation" measure being gamed in some way?
I was listening to the radio yesterday and there was a discussion around labour shortages in various industries - care, hospitality etc. I hadn't caught the name of the guest but they were from one of the unions, and they were arguing the rather obvious point that low pay was a big factor in the problem.
The presenter - doing the usual "Devil's Avocado" thing, then came back with "but wages have gone up and up, look, there's "wage inflation" running at 8%".
Now, my question is - how has anyone calculated "wage inflation" at 8%? Who's getting all the pay rises? (that's 2 questions, I guess)
The public sector still seem to be in a pay freeze and everyone on NMW have only seen a 2% increase on 2020. Now those 2 areas alone are a massive chunk of the workforce, so where are all these huge increases? I know HGV drives have just seen a big jump, but as a % of the total labour pool that's a drop in the ocean, surely. Are there other large employers splashing double digit wage increases around - or is this "wage inflation" measure being gamed in some way?
- Dunners
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Re: Inflation
I've read a few reports of some workers using the current shortage to negotiate better terms (i.e. haulage drivers), but nothing that would convince me that this is filtering down throughout society and is systematic (yet).StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:02 am Broadening this out to "wage inflation".
I was listening to the radio yesterday and there was a discussion around labour shortages in various industries - care, hospitality etc. I hadn't caught the name of the guest but they were from one of the unions, and they were arguing the rather obvious point that low pay was a big factor in the problem.
The presenter - doing the usual "Devil's Avocado" thing, then came back with "but wages have gone up and up, look, there's "wage inflation" running at 8%".
Now, my question is - how has anyone calculated "wage inflation" at 8%? Who's getting all the pay rises? (that's 2 questions, I guess)
The public sector still seem to be in a pay freeze and everyone on NMW have only seen a 2% increase on 2020. Now those 2 areas alone are a massive chunk of the workforce, so where are all these huge increases? I know HGV drives have just seen a big jump, but as a % of the total labour pool that's a drop in the ocean, surely. Are there other large employers splashing double digit wage increases around - or is this "wage inflation" measure being gamed in some way?
From my own experience, however, we've noticed a significant drop in applicants for vacancies. One particular role in pre-pandemic/Brexit times would have attracted something in the region of 25 to 50 applicants. As the recruiting lead, I therefore had sufficient numbers to identify high-quality candidates at industry-benchmarked salaries.
Last week I closed an advert for a vacancy for that same role, and had attracted just 7 applications. All are way below the standard and quality I require, so I have not made an offer and will now be commissioning some research to understand what is happening and how we need to react. But the thing is, the vast majority of our applicants have always been UK Nationals.
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Re: Inflation
Dunners, my situation mirrors yours when it comes to hiring staff. Being in the construction industry we have both wage and product inflation raging. Its a very toxic mixture that promises much hard work and relatively little reward.Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:28 amI've read a few reports of some workers using the current shortage to negotiate better terms (i.e. haulage drivers), but nothing that would convince me that this is filtering down throughout society and is systematic (yet).StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:02 am Broadening this out to "wage inflation".
I was listening to the radio yesterday and there was a discussion around labour shortages in various industries - care, hospitality etc. I hadn't caught the name of the guest but they were from one of the unions, and they were arguing the rather obvious point that low pay was a big factor in the problem.
The presenter - doing the usual "Devil's Avocado" thing, then came back with "but wages have gone up and up, look, there's "wage inflation" running at 8%".
Now, my question is - how has anyone calculated "wage inflation" at 8%? Who's getting all the pay rises? (that's 2 questions, I guess)
The public sector still seem to be in a pay freeze and everyone on NMW have only seen a 2% increase on 2020. Now those 2 areas alone are a massive chunk of the workforce, so where are all these huge increases? I know HGV drives have just seen a big jump, but as a % of the total labour pool that's a drop in the ocean, surely. Are there other large employers splashing double digit wage increases around - or is this "wage inflation" measure being gamed in some way?
From my own experience, however, we've noticed a significant drop in applicants for vacancies. One particular role in pre-pandemic/Brexit times would have attracted something in the region of 25 to 50 applicants. As the recruiting lead, I therefore had sufficient numbers to identify high-quality candidates at industry-benchmarked salaries.
Last week I closed an advert for a vacancy for that same role, and had attracted just 7 applications. All are way below the standard and quality I require, so I have not made an offer and will now be commissioning some research to understand what is happening and how we need to react. But the thing is, the vast majority of our applicants have always been UK Nationals.
- Max B Gold
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Re: Inflation
Give the best of the 7 the job. People can grow into jobs if they are properly supported. It will be easier than working with a depeleted team. That much I know.Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:28 amI've read a few reports of some workers using the current shortage to negotiate better terms (i.e. haulage drivers), but nothing that would convince me that this is filtering down throughout society and is systematic (yet).StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:02 am Broadening this out to "wage inflation".
I was listening to the radio yesterday and there was a discussion around labour shortages in various industries - care, hospitality etc. I hadn't caught the name of the guest but they were from one of the unions, and they were arguing the rather obvious point that low pay was a big factor in the problem.
The presenter - doing the usual "Devil's Avocado" thing, then came back with "but wages have gone up and up, look, there's "wage inflation" running at 8%".
Now, my question is - how has anyone calculated "wage inflation" at 8%? Who's getting all the pay rises? (that's 2 questions, I guess)
The public sector still seem to be in a pay freeze and everyone on NMW have only seen a 2% increase on 2020. Now those 2 areas alone are a massive chunk of the workforce, so where are all these huge increases? I know HGV drives have just seen a big jump, but as a % of the total labour pool that's a drop in the ocean, surely. Are there other large employers splashing double digit wage increases around - or is this "wage inflation" measure being gamed in some way?
From my own experience, however, we've noticed a significant drop in applicants for vacancies. One particular role in pre-pandemic/Brexit times would have attracted something in the region of 25 to 50 applicants. As the recruiting lead, I therefore had sufficient numbers to identify high-quality candidates at industry-benchmarked salaries.
Last week I closed an advert for a vacancy for that same role, and had attracted just 7 applications. All are way below the standard and quality I require, so I have not made an offer and will now be commissioning some research to understand what is happening and how we need to react. But the thing is, the vast majority of our applicants have always been UK Nationals.
- Dunners
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Re: Inflation
If that were true, by now tuffers would have developed into a boardin' mastermind.Max B Gold wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:52 pm People can grow into jobs if they are properly supported.
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Re: Inflation
BBC earlier today: The UK inflation rate hit 3.2% in the year to August, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, as the economy continued to reopen.
BBC now: Price rises have seen the biggest jump since records began in 1997 as the economy continued to reopen.
Yes, the CPI has hit its highest increase since records began in 1997, but to suggest that the UK inflation rate had its biggest increase since records began (early last century) is misleading and it's good to see the BBC correct its error.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58563417
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- tuffers#1
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Re: Inflation
Glad you agree that CPI hit its highest increase since records began .faldO wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:08 pmBBC earlier today: The UK inflation rate hit 3.2% in the year to August, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, as the economy continued to reopen.
BBC now: Price rises have seen the biggest jump since records began in 1997 as the economy continued to reopen.
Yes, the CPI has hit its highest increase since records began in 1997,
everything you wrote after was just waffle
Re: Inflation
Thanks - it's important to point out the difference between RPI and CPI on a thread about inflation.Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:13 pm Good that you’re focusing on the important aspect in all of this.
- tuffers#1
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Re: Inflation
Oil jumps as FTSE 100 struggles - live updates
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegr ... e-100/amp/
Good old Tories .
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegr ... e-100/amp/
Good old Tories .
- tuffers#1
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Re: Inflation
But you still agree the bbc have told the TRUTH .faldO wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:30 pmThanks - it's important to point out the difference between RPI and CPI on a thread about inflation.Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:13 pm Good that you’re focusing on the important aspect in all of this.
CPI hit its highest increase since Records began .