Another Attempt at a L2 Prediction

[jamespevans]

At the beginning of last season I listed ten teams (including us) who would be up there at the end of the season and only two made the play offs , so feel free to take whatever I predict below with a ship load of salt. My prediction for Orient is split in two - my heart says we'll make the play offs as we have players who can change a game (Wilkinson, M-D, Brophy and McAnuff) but my head says we will end up a solid mid-table outfit. Anyway......

Barrow
Ian Evatt who led them to the National League title has decamped to Bolton. They will also miss midfielder John Rooney who turned down a contract and moves to Stockport. On the plus side leading marksman Scott Quigley has signed a long-term deal, they picked up experienced Mike Jones after he was released by Carlisle, Tom Beadling moves south of the border from Dunfermline and Matty Platt signs a permanent deal after spending last season on loan from Blackburn. Look nailed on for a mid-table finish

Bolton
Ian Evatt joins from Barrow, high expectations for a manager with only two non-league seasons under his belt. 9 players released and an experienced striker L2 striker (Eoin Doyle) joins after turning down a contract offer from Swindon. Evatt has brought in 16 new players with Antoni Sarcovic joining from Plymouth and Nathan Delfouneso from Blackpool. Gethin Jones (ex-Carlisle) and Brandon Comley (ex-Colchester) bring with them L2 experience. With all the comings and goings its going to be hard to marry the squad together and I can see Bolton as the team that will miss out on a play-off place.

Bradford
Stuart McCall starts his second year of his third stint as manager. Disappointing 9th last season after the previous years relegation. Only James Vaughan made it into double figure goals and he has now moved on to Tranmere after tearing up his contract. Jake Reeves turned down a contract offer and experienced defenders Kelvin Mellor and Adam Henley have been let go. Callum Cooke signs a permanent deal after joining on loan from Peterboro last season. They will be relying on their January signings Lee Novak and Kurtis Guthrie for goals. Another mid-table finish.

Cambridge
6th season in L2 since being promoted and finished 16th last season. Mark Bonner starts his first full season as manager of a league side. He’s released three experienced players (Paul Lewis, George Taft and George Maris) with not much coming in. Paul Mullin signs permanently after finishing the season on loan from Tranmere and has a few goals in him. Otherwise Joe Ironside joins from relegated Macclesfield and Paul Digby joins from nearly relegated Stevenage. Might squeeze a lower mid-table spot

Carlisle
Have been knocking on the door of the play-offs for a few seasons but finished a disappointing 18th last season. Chris Beech may be favourite to lose his job as he starts his first full season as manager. 8 regulars released and the loss of Gethin Jones to Bolton means that the close season has been something of a revolving door. Keeper Paul Farman joins after spending last season picking balls out of Stevenage’s net. Wimbledon squad player Rod McDonald joins as does George Tanner from Man Utd (on loan last season at Morecambe). They will be relying on goals from Gime Toure (ex-Hartlepool) and Gavin Reilly (ex-Bristol Rovers) neither of whom are prolific. Relegation contenders

Cheltenham
After three mid-table finishes following their promotion they finished 4th in Michael Duff’s second season in charge. They had the meanest defence in the division last season and have held on to their core squad. They have lost their top scorer (only 8 mind) Ryan Broom to Peterboro. Liam Sercombe (from Bristol Rovers) brings L1 experience in the middle of the park. Andy Williams comes in up front after being released by Northampton with a half decent strike rate but he is 34. They have enough strikers at the club (Reuben Reid) capable of goals who will need to step up this season. Look promotion material if they can hit the net more.

Colchester
6th last season, the third time they have just missed out since they were relegated in 2016. John McGreal, dismissed for not achieving promotion, is replaced by his assistant Steve Ball who has virtually no managerial experience. They have released four of their regulars (Prosser, Jackson, Nouble and Comley), two of whom have signed on with L1 outfits. With loanee Theo Robinson being their top scorer last season, they will be looking to Luke Norris to increase his scoring rate. Their only addition of any note is old stager Tommy Smith and I suspect they will miss out on the play offs this season.

Crawley
A perennial lower mid-table team since being relegated in 2015, they finished 13th last season. Gabriele Cioffi was dismissed mid-season and replaced by John Yems whose history is nothing to write home about. They will miss last seasons top scorer Ollie Palmer and Panutche Camara who both jumped ship to sign for L1 sides. Aside from Tony Craig (who can’t have many miles left on the clock) who joins from Bristol Rovers, Yems has dipped into non-league football, never a good sign. There are worse teams in the league so another lower mid-table finish predicted.

Exeter
Last season was their third play-off finish in the last four seasons, with Matt Taylor building on his managerial reputation in his second season in charge. They released three of their old stagers, Aaron and Lee Martin and Dean Moxley but have held on to their top scorer Ryan Bowman. Whatever we think of Jake Caprice, he is a decent addition from Tranmere and Rory McArdle, coming in from Scunthorpe, should help marshal their defence. Liam Page will be looking to restart his career after leaving Charlton. A solid play-off position predicted.

Forest Green
Disappointing 10th last season after losing in the play-off final the year before. Mark Cooper remains as manager. In a truncated season their top scorer was left back Joseph Mills who has jumped ship to Northampton. Cooper has released Farrend Rawson (which may turn out to be a mistake) along with a few squad players. Jamille Matt, in after being let go by Newbury, enters his 31st year with only one decent goalscoring season under his belt. Scott Wagstaff is a decent addition from Wimbledon, as is Jordan Moore-Taylor from the Franchise and Elliot Whitehouse (released by Grimsby). Nicky Cadden moves south from Morton. Might sneak back into the play-offs.

Grimsby
Four lower mid-table finishes after promotion in 2016. Michael Jolley only lasted until Christmas after which Ian Holloway was appointed. As is his wont, Holloway has had a clear out, including 5 regulars. They will miss midfielder Charles Vernam (7 goals last season) who has jumped ship to Burton, though they have held onto last seasons top scorer James Hanson. Aside from Danny Rose who joins from Swindon, and Sean Scannell from Blackpool, Holloway has dipped into the lower leagues and will be looking to Montel Gobson (31-46 for Halesowen last season) and Ira Jackson Jnr (26-36 for Folkestone) for goals. Another mid-table finish likely

Harrogate
Deservedly promoted from the National League under long term manager Simon Weaver. They have only let George Smithy go from their core squad and Jack Muldoon, last years top scorer will lead the line again. Weaver has brought in young Connor Kirby from Sheff Wed who was a regular last season with Macclesfield. He has also dipped into the National League, signing Jake Lawlor (Wrexham), Kevin Lokko (Dover) and Tom Walker (Fylde). A consolidation season expected.

Mansfield
After finishing 4th in his first season in charge, John Dempster only lasted until Christmas. Graham Coughlan jumped ship from Bristol Rovers (4th in L1 at the time!) and guided them to 21st spot. Coughlan has had a clear out, releasing 5 regulars, two have retired (Neal Bishop and Bobby Olejnik), and Blackpool have paid a fee for CJ Hamilton. He has held on to his strike force, Maynard, Rose and Cook who between them netted 32 goals last season and has now brought in 10(!) new players. They include Ollie Clarke (10yrs at Bristol Rovers), James Perch (Scunthorpe), Farrend Rawson (Forest Green) and George Maris (Cambridge). The bookies have them as 3rd favourites which is a big ask for a rookie manager and a revamped squad.

Morecombe
18th was the highest they have finished in the last five seasons and they finished 22nd last season. Jim Bentley finally gave up on them in October after nearly 10yrs and moved on to get Fylde relegated from the National League. Derek Adams will be looking to improve on the 5 wins in 22 games he achieved when he took over. They had the worst defence in the league so won’t miss the five defenders he let go at the end of the season. Kelvin Mellor (from Bradford) Harry Davis (Grimsby) and Nat Knight Percival (Carlisle) will be looking to do a better job at the back. There were no goalscorers in last seasons team and it will be a big ask for Liam McAlinden (Halifax and Stockport last season) to step up to the plate. A relegation struggle awaits.

Newport
14th last season after a decent 7th the season before. Last season was a strange combination of a team tight at the back (3rd best in the league) that couldn’t score goals (joint 2nd worst). Michael Flynn starts his 3rd full season in charge and has made very few changes. He’s let Jamille Matt go and Mark O’Brien has retired. Padraig Amond, who can normally be relied on to get into double figures, had an off season but is still there and will be joined up front by Ryan Taylor from Plymouth. Liam Shephard comes in from Forest Green. Suspect another mid-table finish this season.

Oldham
19th last season after a 14th following relegation the season before. The Laurent Banide experiment lasted less than two months before he was replaced by Dino Maamriahas who lasted until the end of the season. Thinking outside the box, as is their way, they have now decided that Harry Kewell is the answer. He has let half a dozen regulars go but paid a fee for Carl Piergianni after he finished the season on loan from Salford. None of the other newbies are anything to write home about. Last seasons top scorer, loanee Jonny Smith, returns to Bristol Rovers so they will be relying on Danny Rowe who came in in January. Will probably continue to ship goals (2nd worst in the league last season) so a relegation battle looks probable.

Port Vale
8th last season was a big improvement on their previous three seasons. John Askey hasn’t let any of the regulars go and has brought in Danny Whitehead who has chosen to leave Salford, Zac Mills from Oldham and Theo Robinson, who has a healthy strike rate, from Southend. Robinson joins Tom Pope and Mark Cullen up front who both have a few miles on their clock but are normally reliable goalscorers. Should make the play-offs.

Salford
The living embodiment of the Football Manager game we all like to play. At the start of the season spend big and lose a few players, come January repeat. For some reason Graham Alexander still has a job after finishing 11th last season instead of running away with the league, which was the plan. Conway, Neal, Pond, Whitehead, Wiseman, Letheren and Piergianni are all cleared out and replaced (pre-salary cap) by a new bunch of highly paid (by L2 standards) players. Nathan Clarke’s brother Tom, Preston’s captain, drops two divisions. He is joined by Ian Henderson who netted 15 for Rochdale last season, Jordan Turnbull a regular at promoted Northampton and Jason Lowe from Bolton. With the clear out of their keepers Alexander has brought in St Mirren’s first choice, Vaclav Hladky after they released him. Hard to not see them in the play-offs at the end of the season (2nd favourites with the bookies).

Scunthorpe
Following relegation, they finished a poor 20th and Paul Hurst paid the price, being let go in January. Caretaker boss Russ Wilcox lasted until the end of the season before thinking better and leaving. Neil Cox, who started his playing career at Scunthorpe, now gets his opportunity to manage for the first time. He has started by releasing five regulars including three old stagers, James Perch, Rory McArdle and Andy Butler. He has kept hold of Kevin van Veen, last years top scorer but he is joined up front by non-league and U23 rejects. The same approach has been taken in other areas of the pitch. Another difficult season beckons.

Southend
Would have finished bottom of L1 last season if you ignore Bolton’s penalty points and won four games all season. No surprise to see Sol Campbell head off into whatever strange world he lives, new boy Mark Moseley brings with him limited coaching experience. They have released three regulars, Milligan, McLaughlin and Mantom and Joe Shaughnessy has done a runner to St Mirren. So far only loanee Jordan Green has been brought in, from Barnsley. They leaked goals last season, 85 in 35 games, including a 7-1 home defeat to Doncaster so a surprise that they haven’t brought anybody in yet at the back. Their front line also seems to lack experience with only Stephen Humphrys looking capable of getting into double figures. Difficult to see them anywhere near the play-offs unless new blood comes in.

Stevenage
With three wins all season they’d be in the National League now only for the gross mismanagement of Macclesfield. Dino Maamria couldn’t build on his achievements from the previous season (they finished one point off the play-offs) and he was let go in early September. Caretaker Mark Sampson saw them through to Christmas before Graham Westley had another short stint prior to resigning in February. Alex Revell took over and now has the job of keeping them in the football league with minimal experience. 8 regulars have been released and Revell has brought in a staggering 12 new players (Westley brought 9 in in January). However, aside from the addition of old stager Luke Prosser from Colchester the rest are non-league fodder, loanees or U23 rejects. Pretty much nailed on for relegation.

Tranmere
Dropping straight back into L2 was not part of the plan and Micky Mellon has decided not to continue the project, moving up north to Dundee Utd. Mike Jackson now takes over, having been Mellon’s assistant since their Shrewsbury days. He’s let five of last seasons regulars go and gone for experience, bringing in Jay Spearing from Blackpool, James Vaughan from Bradford and keeper Joe Murphy (now in his 40th year) from Shrewsbury. The squad looks on the small side at the moment and Vaughan doesn’t have much company up front. However, Jackson brings continuity and they would be my favourites for promotion.

Walsall
Following relegation the previous season, they will have been disappointed with 12th last season. Darrell Clarke keeps hold of the reigns and has decided not to tinker with his squad too much. Only squad players Gary Liddle and Shay Facey were let go. They have brought in Emmanuel Osadebe (ex-Macclesfield), Hayden White (Mansfield), George Nurse on loan from Bristol City and secured the services of Rory Holden and keeper Jack Rose who both spent time on loan at the Saddlers last season. They look a bit light up front but I can see a sold mid-table finish again.

[Rich Tea Wellin]

Interesting read - cheers.

My too 3 are probably Mansfield, Salford and Tranmere. Exeter finally getting up via the playoffs.

[RedDwarf 1881]

That's a very good summery James but you forgot about us . Come on James, what's your prediction for Orient. ?

[AckneyAwks]

After taking in James summary i actually feel quitely confident now. Seems like most teams have been weakened and as i was reading up on each squad we appear to be in a much better place than them.
One quality centre back addition and i go with play off's at least.

[jamespevans]

That's a very good summery James but you forgot about us . Come on James, what's your prediction for Orient. ?

Heart, the play-offs, head mid-table. Deep down just looking forward to seeing us play again, it's been an age.

[Adz]

Thanks, that's awesome info, and puts into perspective our squad.

I see a slight problem with your predictions though, you only have one promotion candidate!

Barrow - mid table
Bolton - outside play offs
Bradford - mid table
Cambridge - lower mid table
Carlisle - relegation battle
Colchester - outside play offs
Crawley - lower mid table
Exeter - play offs
Forest Green - play offs
Grimsby - mid table
Harrogate - lower mid table
Mansfield - not sure?
Morecombe - relegation battle
Newport - mid table
Oldham - relegation battle
Port Vale - play offs
Salford - play offs
Scunthorpe - struggle
Southend - mid table
Stevenage - relegation
Tranmere - promotion
Walsall - mid table

[jamespevans]

If I had to be pinned down, and I did such a bad job last time I would go with:

1st Tranmere
2nd Cheltenham
3rd Salford
4th Exeter
5th Port Vale
6th Forest Green
7th Bolton

[RedDwarf 1881]

That's a very good summery James but you forgot about us . Come on James, what's your prediction for Orient. ?

Heart, the play-offs, head mid-table. Deep down just looking forward to seeing us play again, it's been an age.

At this moment of time I would take either of those. I just don’t want us to be involved in a relegation battle this season

[KC & sunshine band]

interesting reading James, and it has made me rearrange my league ladder
Quite a few teams have brought in new players whereas we have more settled squad - could well work to our advantage
I feel confident and upbeat about this season
I reckon that we will finish 7th, and get promoted by winning promotion at Wembley

[RedDwarf 1881]

interesting reading James, and it has made me rearrange my league ladder
Quite a few teams have brought in new players whereas we have more settled squad - could well work to our advantage
I feel confident and upbeat about this season
I reckon that we will finish 7th, and get promoted by winning promotion at Wembley

The problem is Wembley is our bogy ground . I've been there three times to see us play and we've lost every time.

[KC & sunshine band]

yep and dont forget cardiff
but every dog has their day, just ask lassie