The Unofficial and Independent Leyton Orient Message Board
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It could be because I'm knackered and should have been in bed over an hour ago but I can't follow what you're saying. Could you rephrase it for me please.Still's Carenae wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:34 pm Always check the data.
I looked at this for the lib dems polls. Even though the stats gave good tory or labour majorities in certain constituencies, they then adjusted the figures, based on the euro and local elections. Volar - lib dems up to 10% ahead in said constituencies.
Bonkers
Most people think the Conservatives will win as he's up against an authoritarian racist anti semite which goes against most peoples' perceptions of the UK as an open liberal minded democracy. Putin is 100% behind him.
How many “heads gone” wrongs can you squeeze into 2 lines?At the start of the campaign the lib dems, asked (paid for) Suvation to poll some seats.Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:17 amIt could be because I'm knackered and should have been in bed over an hour ago but I can't follow what you're saying. Could you rephrase it for me please.Still's Carenae wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:34 pm Always check the data.
I looked at this for the lib dems polls. Even though the stats gave good tory or labour majorities in certain constituencies, they then adjusted the figures, based on the euro and local elections. Volar - lib dems up to 10% ahead in said constituencies.
Bonkers
For the moment, I will not take any notice at all of these so called OPINION POLLS.
I'd much rather stick with the unbiased polls, such as that YouGov owned by a Tory MP.Still's Carenae wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:04 amAt the start of the campaign the lib dems, asked (paid for) Suvation to poll some seats.Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:17 amIt could be because I'm knackered and should have been in bed over an hour ago but I can't follow what you're saying. Could you rephrase it for me please.Still's Carenae wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:34 pm Always check the data.
I looked at this for the lib dems polls. Even though the stats gave good tory or labour majorities in certain constituencies, they then adjusted the figures, based on the euro and local elections. Volar - lib dems up to 10% ahead in said constituencies.
Bonkers
The hard current data was adjusted for the EU and local elections results (which is bonkers), to show lib dem support at a much higher level. Including winning seats where they needed a 20% swing.
This together with they very democratic abolition of article 50, tells you all you need to know.
On another point. A friend of mine was saying 4 months before the brexit referendum, that the data was showing that we would have. The pollsters were adjusting this - I wonder if this was from government instruction?
Correct.Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:17 pm Let's face it, none of us have the foggiest idea of what's going to happen. I'll be desperately disappointed, disheartened and depressed if the Tories win but I can't deny that its a possibility. I can't see a Labour majority happening, or even a progressive coalition. The SNP & the Libs will put the death knell on that by making absurd demands that they know Corbyn couldn't meet. The best hope is that its 'as you were' with the Tories in power but without any traction in parliament. Its a sad indictment of where we're at but there you go. The electorate is so polarised that its difficult to see how we get out of this. I don't blame the polarisation as centrists do, polarisation is a symptom of a larger schism emerging within society not the cause. To say otherwise is just liberal idealism (in the philosophical sense).
As long as the SNP take Swinsons seat I'm not too bothered what else they do.Still's Carenae wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:59 pm When even the SNP arr concerned that they might lose a good few seats (to Tories and Lib dems). It is less likely that we will have a hung parliament.
I think we are looking at a Tory majority, but with lots of surprises.
Yes, but corbyn loves terrorists and will bankrupt usComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:08 pm It totally shocks me that ordinary people vote conservative when they have destroyed so many peoples lives over the last 9 years.
they are without any empathy, and feeling, and Johnson is proved to be a liar & a cheat time and time again
I've been very disappointed by what Swinson and the Lib Dem's have offered up in this election. With the two main parties wider apart than ever politically they had an opportunity to break the mould. Unfortunately they couldn't break their own mould.Max B Gold wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:01 pmAs long as the SNP take Swinsons seat I'm not too bothered what else they do.Still's Carenae wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:59 pm When even the SNP arr concerned that they might lose a good few seats (to Tories and Lib dems). It is less likely that we will have a hung parliament.
I think we are looking at a Tory majority, but with lots of surprises.
Break what mould?LittleMate wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:13 pmI've been very disappointed by what Swinson and the Lib Dem's have offered up in this election. With the two main parties wider apart than ever politically they had an opportunity to break the mould. Unfortunately they couldn't break their own mould.Max B Gold wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:01 pmAs long as the SNP take Swinsons seat I'm not too bothered what else they do.Still's Carenae wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:59 pm When even the SNP arr concerned that they might lose a good few seats (to Tories and Lib dems). It is less likely that we will have a hung parliament.
I think we are looking at a Tory majority, but with lots of surprises.
Have you been living on a desert island for the last 9 years?LittleMate wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:37 pm 2 party politics. The Lib's failed to come up with an appealing 3rd way and instead came up with an appalling one.
People talk about a Brexit delay as though its some sort of imposition. Its a bloody complex issue. The referendum advised the government that a basic majority wanted to leave the EU. Fine, but at that point there is still everything to agree. How do we leave? How will our departure work? what will the transition look like? How will intractable problems like Northern Ireland be handled? Are Scotland going to be dragged out without the slightest concern for its rejection of Brexit? What sort of deal will we sign with the EU? Will it be as beneficial as the one we had? Will it satisfy the different electoral coalitions who represent both leave and remain? What kind of trade strategy will we adopt with the rest of the world? What will Britain look like once we're out of the EU?
Well put.Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:01 pmPeople talk about a Brexit delay as though its some sort of imposition. Its a bloody complex issue. The referendum advised the government that a basic majority wanted to leave the EU. Fine, but at that point there is still everything to agree. How do we leave? How will our departure work? what will the transition look like? How will intractable problems like Northern Ireland be handled? Are Scotland going to be dragged out without the slightest concern for its rejection of Brexit? What sort of deal will we sign with the EU? Will it be as beneficial as the one we had? Will it satisfy the different electoral coalitions who represent both leave and remain? What kind of trade strategy will we adopt with the rest of the world? What will Britain look like once we're out of the EU?
None of these questions answer themselves and they're just too damn complex and important to be left to the whims of the extremely partisan government of the day. The problem is that there was never any appreciation amongst Brexit supporters that this was a complex issue that would raise a multitude of further issues. They seemed to think that the referendum was clear on all of these things but that was pure delusion. They saw what they wanted to see. One man's Brexit is another man's betrayal and visa versa. The middle aged, working class woman in Hull who voted for Brexit because she thought it would end immigration, shorten housing waiting list and reduce the time it takes to see a doctor did not vote for the same Brexit as Jacob Rees Mogg who envisaged a new "golden age" of deregulated British commerce. One of them doesn't get the Brexit they voted for.
Brexit isn't a binary. Brexit is made up of lots of different components and there are many choices on offer as to what kind of Brexit it could be. Some better, some worse and some absolutely horrific.