Independent Leyton Orient Forum

eppinggas wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 9:53 am

Buddy Manucci wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2019 6:41 pm

eagwgw wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2019 11:50 am Genuinely interested, would people have been opposed to our entry to the Championship on the account we have no history playing there and would only be getting 6,000 fans, with our only claim to being there being finishing top of League One having spent loads of cash?

It seems a bit hypocritical to start slagging off other clubs for doing the same as what we did a few years back.

Clubs like Bournemouth and Brighton were not pulling in many more fans than us really before the money got pumped in.

We do have a history of playing in the second tier though. 41 of them.

There isn't a big gap between top half of the Conference and Div 2. There is a bigger gap between Div 2 and Div 1, but no reason why Orient can't bridge that. (Look at Lincoln, Bristol Rovers, Luton, Oxford). The problem comes at Div 1 to Championship. This has become a chasm. You need financial clout to compete. Bristol Rovers are in the bottom 2/3 of the Division and simply cannot compete for promotion, and that's with average gates of around 8,800 over the last 3 years. It's the ex-Championship Clubs that are miles ahead of the pack. Luton will have a very tough time next year. When we were last in tier 2 (early 90's) it was a much flatter playing field. The average wages are now about 5 times higher in the Championship than Div 1. To make that sustainable average gates would have to reflect that (let's say 20,000+ a ball-park figure that I just made up).
Anyway - if we can cling on to Div 1 status, look forward to playing Orient in a couple of years or so. UTO's & UTG.

Whilst not disputing there's a massive gap between Championship and L1 overall, are you saying it's impossible for run of the mill L1 clubs to compete with the relegated Championship clubs for promotion from L1?

Agreed. We (or any smaller club) would need to spend big and hope that attendances will follow. To use a blueprint, clubs like Brentford and Bournemouth lost lots of money. I do believe that if we could get there, potentially we could stabilise. The FA Trophy ticket sales show there is a lot of untapped support (although I am hoping that these are real sales and not phantom kids sales to get the cheaper adult ticket).

If we could stabilise as a Championship side some more options opens up for the owners IMO.

I don't really believe that history counts for much nowadays. If Bury got promoted into the Championship next year I don't think the big boys will see it as any type of game apart from one against a minnow, even though Bury were previously a massive club and won the FA Cup.

Similarly my opinion is the same regarding any club splashing the cash, we were in the same position a few years ago, and may well be in the future so it would be hypocritical to criticise too much. I didn't mind Beelzebub investing money at the time (although disagreed with the way he went about it), would I have changed my mind if we were formed in 1970 and therefore seen as trying to buy our way out, the truthful answer is no.

Can't quite square using other criteria. For example if MK Dons and Accrington Stanley both started paying stupid money, is it wrong in the first case because they are a new club, and OK in the second case because they used to be a top side 100 years ago and therefore trying to bring those days back?

The only thing that I can see is that there are vested interests in spending a lot of cash, nobody is really going to stop it, and clubs and fans are simply collateral damage.

From what's been said from the owners they want to get back to where we were before, that's league 1. Now listening to Travis he wants the club back to when it belongs, well that's the championship, but that is a few years away so no point in actually saying it for fear of falling flat on your face like Hearn did.

Then theres Teague, people have said what's his end game? I've questioned those people and they say not sure, my view is a Championship club playing in a championship ground (goodbye Brisbane Rd) is worth money, and then your a shot away from the promised land where big riches await. I think most clubs or was it all of them posted a profit for the first time ever, thats sustainable football. Now could the owners bankroll a run to that level? Do they want to? Would further investment be required? If Teague wants a return on his dollars theres your end game, right there. He said hes here for the long term I think 15 or 20 years were mentioned, its doable, Burnley did it, Bournemouth did it and theres no reason why we cant do it being run properly which we know it is.

So for me its game on, enjoy the ride cos I think it's only going to get better and better. Like I've said on here elsewhere here's to the Champions of the National League, this year and League 2 next year.

eagwgw wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 10:19 am The FA Trophy ticket sales show there is a lot of untapped support

Big difference between those who will attend home games on a regular basis and those who fancy a one off glory trip to Wembley. That written, no reason why Orient couldn't fill Brisbane Road with home fans (7,000) once they get rid of those pesky ghost kids.

Thor wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 10:55 am A Championship club playing in a championship ground (goodbye Brisbane Rd)

Rather than a local club for local people.

I guess the problem is where would Orient have a new ground. The Olympic Park looks unlikely, so it would almost certainly be a relocation outside of Leyton. Also they don't own the ground so they can't sell it to finance a new stadium.

eppinggas wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 9:53 am

Buddy Manucci wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2019 6:41 pm

eagwgw wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2019 11:50 am Genuinely interested, would people have been opposed to our entry to the Championship on the account we have no history playing there and would only be getting 6,000 fans, with our only claim to being there being finishing top of League One having spent loads of cash?

It seems a bit hypocritical to start slagging off other clubs for doing the same as what we did a few years back.

Clubs like Bournemouth and Brighton were not pulling in many more fans than us really before the money got pumped in.

We do have a history of playing in the second tier though. 41 of them.

There isn't a big gap between top half of the Conference and Div 2. There is a bigger gap between Div 2 and Div 1, but no reason why Orient can't bridge that. (Look at Lincoln, Bristol Rovers, Luton, Oxford). The problem comes at Div 1 to Championship. This has become a chasm. You need financial clout to compete. Bristol Rovers are in the bottom 2/3 of the Division and simply cannot compete for promotion, and that's with average gates of around 8,800 over the last 3 years. It's the ex-Championship Clubs that are miles ahead of the pack. Luton will have a very tough time next year. When we were last in tier 2 (early 90's) it was a much flatter playing field. The average wages are now about 5 times higher in the Championship than Div 1. To make that sustainable average gates would have to reflect that (let's say 20,000+ a ball-park figure that I just made up).

this is an interesting question, and one we last explored in the Orientear 5 years ago, the last time it looked possible that we might get promoted to the second tier. Using actual attendance data from the preceding 20 years, the conclusion was that *absolute bare minimum conservative estimate* you need 10,000 coming through the turnstiles every match to sustain a second tier club for more than just one or two fluky Icarus like seasons. And I agree with you that the real figure is likely higher than that, and may well have increased over the last 5 years. I don't think it's as high as 20k (as many clubs e.g. Ipswich and Middlesbrough trundled along in the Championship for many years drawing in considerably less than this) but clearly it's going to be significantly greater than the current capacity of Brisbane Road - so the consensus here is right - getting Orient back to League 1 could happen quite quickly, and we should be perfectly comfortable there. But going above and beyond that will require a real transformation, huge investment in infrastructure, and would probably change the character of the club.

Well Bournemouth managed it pretty well, to be fair. Dean Court still only holds about 3,000 less than Brisbane Rd, although I know that in the Premiership, the tv money far outweighs gate income. But it shows that a slow careful improvement is the way to go rather than just chucking shitloads of money at it.

I’d like to find out what Bournemouth’s expenditure has been, but I’m sure their backer has far more money than Teague and Travis have.

Stowaway wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 12:17 pm Well Bournemouth managed it pretty well, to be fair. Dean Court still only holds about 3,000 less than Brisbane Rd, although I know that in the Premiership, the tv money far outweighs gate income. But it shows that a slow careful improvement is the way to go rather than just chucking sh*t of money at it.

I’d like to find out what Bournemouth’s expenditure has been, but I’m sure their backer has far more money than Teague and Travis have.

Interesting example. They have been bankrolled by the mysterious money of the mysterious Russian "Mysterious" Maxim Demin.

And they are looking to move to a new ground fairly soon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47034322

OyinbO wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 11:39 am ... the consensus here is right - getting Orient back to League 1 could happen quite quickly, and we should be perfectly comfortable there. But going above and beyond that will require a real transformation, huge investment in infrastructure, and would probably change the character of the club.

I agree. If Orient are ultimately looking to be an established Championship club (or gasp, a potential Premier League club) then there will need to be a real sea change. Would need a 20,000+ seater stadium and have attendances over 10,000 on a regular basis. However as you state the club will change its character. And there will be a lot of money needed.

Brentford are an example of what might be, but they are going to be ground sharing with London Irish. And they will have 2,000 premium seats. Orient would have to do similar.

RientO wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 1:00 pm

OyinbO wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 11:39 am ... the consensus here is right - getting Orient back to League 1 could happen quite quickly, and we should be perfectly comfortable there. But going above and beyond that will require a real transformation, huge investment in infrastructure, and would probably change the character of the club.

I agree. If Orient are ultimately looking to be an established Championship club (or gasp, a potential Premier League club) then there will need to be a real sea change. Would need a 20,000+ seater stadium and have attendances over 10,000 on a regular basis. However as you state the club will change its character. And there will be a lot of money needed.

Brentford are an example of what might be, but they are going to be ground sharing with London Irish. And they will have 2,000 premium seats. Orient would have to do similar.

A 20,000+ stadium would require moving out of Leyton. Really hope that never happens.

CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 10:09 am

eppinggas wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 9:53 am

Buddy Manucci wrote: ↑Tue May 07, 2019 6:41 pm

We do have a history of playing in the second tier though. 41 of them.

There isn't a big gap between top half of the Conference and Div 2. There is a bigger gap between Div 2 and Div 1, but no reason why Orient can't bridge that. (Look at Lincoln, Bristol Rovers, Luton, Oxford). The problem comes at Div 1 to Championship. This has become a chasm. You need financial clout to compete. Bristol Rovers are in the bottom 2/3 of the Division and simply cannot compete for promotion, and that's with average gates of around 8,800 over the last 3 years. It's the ex-Championship Clubs that are miles ahead of the pack. Luton will have a very tough time next year. When we were last in tier 2 (early 90's) it was a much flatter playing field. The average wages are now about 5 times higher in the Championship than Div 1. To make that sustainable average gates would have to reflect that (let's say 20,000+ a ball-park figure that I just made up).
Anyway - if we can cling on to Div 1 status, look forward to playing Orient in a couple of years or so. UTO's & UTG.

Whilst not disputing there's a massive gap between Championship and L1 overall, are you saying it's impossible for run of the mill L1 clubs to compete with the relegated Championship clubs for promotion from L1?

Whilst not impossible (Luton are a case in point)... it is incredibly hard. We had one win against the top 8 (early season - Coventry didn't turn up). Everyone bar Luton has had relatively recent championship history. There was a "league within a league" this year. The top 8 fighting for promotion and the bottom 16 fighting relegation. On Easter Monday half the division could still have gone down. I can't see it happening any differently next year. Orient have a decent chance of promotion. Rovers have no chance of promotion whatsoever. It is what it is...

Esteban wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 1:12 pm
A 20,000+ stadium would require moving out of Leyton. Really hope that never happens.

I could accept moving out of Leyton to a neighbouring area like Clapton There are a few big sports grounds/golf courses near A406 in Redbridge that would be big enough, but any further than than (say Fairlop) would effectively make it a different club. Also they would have to change the club name.

eppinggas wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 1:24 pm

CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 10:09 am

eppinggas wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 9:53 am

There isn't a big gap between top half of the Conference and Div 2. There is a bigger gap between Div 2 and Div 1, but no reason why Orient can't bridge that. (Look at Lincoln, Bristol Rovers, Luton, Oxford). The problem comes at Div 1 to Championship. This has become a chasm. You need financial clout to compete. Bristol Rovers are in the bottom 2/3 of the Division and simply cannot compete for promotion, and that's with average gates of around 8,800 over the last 3 years. It's the ex-Championship Clubs that are miles ahead of the pack. Luton will have a very tough time next year. When we were last in tier 2 (early 90's) it was a much flatter playing field. The average wages are now about 5 times higher in the Championship than Div 1. To make that sustainable average gates would have to reflect that (let's say 20,000+ a ball-park figure that I just made up).
Anyway - if we can cling on to Div 1 status, look forward to playing Orient in a couple of years or so. UTO's & UTG.

Whilst not disputing there's a massive gap between Championship and L1 overall, are you saying it's impossible for run of the mill L1 clubs to compete with the relegated Championship clubs for promotion from L1?

Whilst not impossible (Luton are a case in point)... it is incredibly hard. We had one win against the top 8 (early season - Coventry didn't turn up). Everyone bar Luton has had relatively recent championship history. There was a "league within a league" this year. The top 8 fighting for promotion and the bottom 16 fighting relegation. On Easter Monday half the division could still have gone down. I can't see it happening any differently next year. Orient have a decent chance of promotion. Rovers have no chance of promotion whatsoever. It is what it is...

I know we've been away for a few years and I've paid zero interest to that division since, but are you saying things have changed since 2014? I know it didn't work out but we were within a whisker of promotion, and eventually pipped by another small time outfit.

Also, loving how everyone is talking about 20,000 seater stadiums and the Premiership after promotion back to Division 4.

We have to consider it as we are now in Year 3 of the 5 Year plan. Whatever that is.

If we have another good season the directors need to sort out having 2,700 seats not used when turning people away ie a sell out,maybe a more flexable seating for away fans,giving them less for some games would help,re the ground yes can do little with it,some room at front of west stand to move it forward with seats above 2,000 extra seats maybe would cost a arm and leg,no more room behind goals,barry buggered up the plan to move the pitch round the other way towards the south and west cornors of the ground giving more room along the two sides,we would have had a nice ground,went to a open meeting about it but barry arrived soon after and did not want that to happen killed that stone dead.

Allways Westside wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:12 pm 2,700 seats not used when turning people away

Agree with the away allocation in general but not sure there were many sell outs last season apart from the £5 games, Wrexham and Braintree. And none for a few seasons before that I can remember.

Blame the ghost kids for a lot of the empty seats, especially in North Stand.

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 1:47 pm We have to consider it as we are now in Year 3 of the 5 Year plan. Whatever that is.

Think that plan was to get out of NL. Now a new plan will be in place to move up the divisions.

spen666 wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 10:04 am

Esteban wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 9:49 am

spen666 wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 9:45 am

Not unlike Leyton Orient then in July 2017?

As a neutral, I’m not so sure your input is needed on this topic.

So you have no answer to the fact that Leyton Orient were re born in 2017?

They weren't re-born, they were revived as they were only on their death bed not actually in the morgue.

Yes the sell out 's are not a big issue at present ,its a nice problem to have,wonder what the Braintree crowd would have been with a bigger ground

Brisbane Road will be more than ample for many years to come.
Where are all these extra thousands of fans coming from or the rapid rise through the divisions?

Allways Westside wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:41 pm Yes the sell out 's are not a big issue at present ,its a nice problem to have,wonder what the Braintree crowd would have been with a bigger ground

20,000 plus assuming the same glory hunters who are off to Wembley came along :-)

For 99% of the games since err 1982 the capacity has not been an issue. Aside from the odd cup game there haven't been too many sell outs. However, if the Os core support can grow to around 7,000 plus over the new few years then the size of the away section will need re-thinking. That said it was fine for Braintree.

CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 1:33 pm

eppinggas wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 1:24 pm

CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 10:09 am

Whilst not disputing there's a massive gap between Championship and L1 overall, are you saying it's impossible for run of the mill L1 clubs to compete with the relegated Championship clubs for promotion from L1?

Whilst not impossible (Luton are a case in point)... it is incredibly hard. We had one win against the top 8 (early season - Coventry didn't turn up). Everyone bar Luton has had relatively recent championship history. There was a "league within a league" this year. The top 8 fighting for promotion and the bottom 16 fighting relegation. On Easter Monday half the division could still have gone down. I can't see it happening any differently next year. Orient have a decent chance of promotion. Rovers have no chance of promotion whatsoever. It is what it is...

I know we've been away for a few years and I've paid zero interest to that division since, but are you saying things have changed since 2014? I know it didn't work out but we were within a whisker of promotion, and eventually pipped by another small time outfit.

I'd need to check how much parachute payments and TV money have changed over the last few years Championship vs Div 1. Rotherham averaged 9,800 last season (the lowest) and were relegated from the Championship, but will be one of the Clubs challenging for promotion from Div 1 next year. They are now a Club yo-yoing between the Championship and Div 1 - which kind of helps prove my point. We won't be able to compete with them next year - maybe that's just Bristol Rovers though...

RientO wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:18 pm

Allways Westside wrote: ↑Wed May 08, 2019 2:12 pm 2,700 seats not used when turning people away

Agree with the away allocation in general but not sure there were many sell outs last season apart from the £5 games, Wrexham and Braintree. And none for a few seasons before that I can remember.

Blame the ghost kids for a lot of the empty seats, especially in North Stand.

Not saying the ghost kids ain’t an issue but they’re a drop in the ocean.

I sit in the north and a lot of people around me don’t have kids with them ever, now that’s a fact.