Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:20 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:15 pm Whatever else anyone may think about Starmer and Labour, their careful navigation of the Brexit issue looks to be working.

I don't understand the conclusion you've drawn from this?

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:21 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

Are “Not working” as opposed to “unemployed”

Living off wealth? Unable to work because they’re signed off sick with anxiety? Or both?

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:22 pm**

Proposition Joe wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:19 pm Students don't vote? Weren't they responsible for turfing Clegg out?

That was a targeted campaign though, wasn't it? I mean that generally, younger people (who will make up the bulk of that student demographic) are relatively absent at elections.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:22 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

I'm assuming the 10,928 is not spread equally amongst those 5 categories?

The bars should be different widths to accurately represent the results, that is massively misleading.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:24 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:19 pm The Tories just managing to hold on to half of homeowners who do not have a mortgage. Which, to be fair, is substantial proportion and will be well represented at the polls on the day. But all others are turning their backs on them.

I’m no maths geek, but pretty sure 32% isn’t half

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:27 pm**

Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:20 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:15 pm Whatever else anyone may think about Starmer and Labour, their careful navigation of the Brexit issue looks to be working.

I don't understand the conclusion you've drawn from this?

Labour position on Brexit in 2019 clearly spooked a lot of potential voters who were Leave. The Tories had a clearer message (get Brexit done) and clearly capitalised on that to get their majority.

Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. Therefore, my theory is that the messaging from Labour over the last few years has either reassured those same Leave voters or at least not alarmed them. Which, given that a lot of Labour insiders will be Remain voters, is quite a strategic achievement.

Basically, Starmer has fooled the thick f*ckers.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:28 pm**

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:21 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

Are “Not working” as opposed to “unemployed”

Living off wealth? Unable to work because they’re signed off sick with anxiety? Or both?

I thick unemployed are those who are seeking employment but do not yet have any (including those on job seekers allowance). Not working is anyone else.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:28 pm**

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:24 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:19 pm The Tories just managing to hold on to half of homeowners who do not have a mortgage. Which, to be fair, is substantial proportion and will be well represented at the polls on the day. But all others are turning their backs on them.

I’m no maths geek, but pretty sure 32% isn’t half

You're right. Have a biscuit.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:30 pm**

Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:22 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

I'm assuming the 10,928 is not spread equally amongst those 5 categories?

The bars should be different widths to accurately represent the results, that is massively misleading.

Fair point. I'll raise it at the committee.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:40 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:27 pm
Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. T

Nah mate. You can't add (and Reform) in brackets when the Tory Leave voters are piling into there rather than Labour by 2:1.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:45 pm**

Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:40 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:27 pm
Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. T
Nah mate. You can't add (and Reform) in brackets when the Tory Leave voters are piling into there rather than Labour by 2:1.

I'm not trying anything here. Tory Leave voters are clearly going to be drawn by Reform UK, but it is also clear that Labour are managing to capture a fair whack of them too. No?

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:49 pm**

Only 1 in 3 of them. I don't think that can be classed as a success.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:52 pm**

Er, given the toxicity of the whole Brexit debate and the mess Labour got itself into on that issue in 2019 (for which Starmer is also to blame - LOL), convincing any of those Tory Leave voters for them is a success.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 2:56 pm**

Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:49 pm Only 1 in 3 of them. I don't think that can be classed as a success.

It's very poor.

Sir Kid Starver needs to get more union flags behind him in all Labour broadcasts. Its the only way to capture the thick racist vote.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 3:44 pm**

There’s going to be so so much cope this next six weeks

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 7:03 pm**

I make this about right.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 7:05 pm**

Gove is going away

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 7:11 pm**

In the past 14 years, he has been one of, if not the, most effective ministers at getting legislation through Parliament. All that snorting had an effect afterall.

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 8:22 pm**

Leadsom now on her way

FFS have we only got Hunt & Rees - Mogg left for the Potillo moment? The Tories doing what they do and spoiling the fun for everyone

Posted: **Fri May 24, 2024 11:31 pm**

Anyone fancy standing for the Tories?

Deadline 7th June or you're not on the ballot paper

Posted: **Sat May 25, 2024 12:21 am**

The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 11:31 pm Anyone fancy standing for the Tories?

Deadline 7th June or you're not on the ballot paper

How many Labour seats need fillin'?

This is an implosion of the Tories.

The far right ones are deserting the sinking ship. Don't be fooled Tufton Street/Billionaires/CIA/MI5 have a plan. These fascists will be back.

Posted: **Sat May 25, 2024 12:57 am**

Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:27 pm
Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:20 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:15 pm Whatever else anyone may think about Starmer and Labour, their careful navigation of the Brexit issue looks to be working.

I don't understand the conclusion you've drawn from this?
Labour position on Brexit in 2019 clearly spooked a lot of potential voters who were Leave. The Tories had a clearer message (get Brexit done) and clearly capitalised on that to get their majority.

Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. Therefore, my theory is that the messaging from Labour over the last few years has either reassured those same Leave voters or at least not alarmed them. Which, given that a lot of Labour insiders will be Remain voters, is quite a strategic achievement.

Basically, Starmer has fooled the thick f*ckers.

Surely it’s more a combination of Brexit actually being done and therefore traditional Labour voters who had were Leave went to the other side. And the fact that the Tories have completely f*cked it up/the leavers didn’t actually get what they wanted out of it.

Posted: **Sat May 25, 2024 12:58 am**

Dunners wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2024 2:13 pm First YouGov poll is in.

Quite ironic, really, that Sunak killed off a load of his biggest supporter base with Eat Out To Help Out

Posted: **Sat May 25, 2024 7:09 am**

Gove and Leadsom: latest cowards to jump ship. Gove is 56, not a great age.

Posted: **Sat May 25, 2024 7:58 am**

Out if the top seven candidates from the first round of the 2019 Tory leadership contest, only one - Jeremy Hunt - is now standing to be a Tory MP.

At this rate it wouldn't surprise me if Sunak also declared that he was standing down.

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