Independent Leyton Orient Forum

So how do you see it all panning out in the middle east, say, in the next 5 years?

^I, er, agree with ComeOnYouOs. Although, if ever a full-on direct war broke out I'd be less certain that an Israeli victory was a forgone conclusion. These things can be unpredictable.

But any Iranian retaliation will be asymmetric warfare. For example, it looks like Iranian forces have just seized an Israeli owned ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Expect more of these kind of shenanigans.

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:53 am I dont think Iran will attack Israel directly, for a number of reasons

1...In an all out war, Israel will win, overall they are militarily stronger, and they have the Yanks to back them up.......Iran knows this

2.. Iran doesnt want a major war with Israel, because if they lose, there would be an overthrow of the incumbents, and they dont want to lose control

3..Iran knows, Israel would attack its nuclear facilities, setting back their quest for a nuclear bomb decades

4 Iran knows Israel does have a nuclear bomb, and would use it, regardless of the cost to life

I think Iran will attack Israeli interests somewhere in the world, like an embassy etc

Point 1 is incorrect.

Chief crazy horse wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 11:37 am So how do you see it all panning out in the middle east, say, in the next 5 years?

I dont think anyone can predict what will happen in the middle east in the next five years because its ......err......unpredictable

One thing i do know though, is, America interference doesn't help things for the people of the region.

will the religious zealots in Iran be ousted?

Will Israel oust the far right psychopaths ( Bibi, Ben Givr, Smotrich etc) and replace with moderate politicians?

What will happen in Syria?

How much more influence will Turkey have in the region ?

Will Putin show interest in that region, he hasnt up to now?

Will China show interest in the region?

all these questions cant be answered, but all will greatly affect how the middle east will be in 5 years

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 12:31 pm

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:53 am I dont think Iran will attack Israel directly, for a number of reasons

1...In an all out war, Israel will win, overall they are militarily stronger, and they have the Yanks to back them up.......Iran knows this

2.. Iran doesnt want a major war with Israel, because if they lose, there would be an overthrow of the incumbents, and they dont want to lose control

3..Iran knows, Israel would attack its nuclear facilities, setting back their quest for a nuclear bomb decades

4 Iran knows Israel does have a nuclear bomb, and would use it, regardless of the cost to life

I think Iran will attack Israeli interests somewhere in the world, like an embassy etc

Point 1 is incorrect.

In what way? I disagree with him that an Israeli victory is certain.

I think the Iranian military is designed to repell invaders and for domestic suppression. The Israeli military is going to be better set for state v state warfare. They are both different and difficult to compare, so any outcome is unknown.

Dunners wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:05 pm

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 12:31 pm

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:53 am I dont think Iran will attack Israel directly, for a number of reasons

1...In an all out war, Israel will win, overall they are militarily stronger, and they have the Yanks to back them up.......Iran knows this

2.. Iran doesnt want a major war with Israel, because if they lose, there would be an overthrow of the incumbents, and they dont want to lose control

3..Iran knows, Israel would attack its nuclear facilities, setting back their quest for a nuclear bomb decades

4 Iran knows Israel does have a nuclear bomb, and would use it, regardless of the cost to life

I think Iran will attack Israeli interests somewhere in the world, like an embassy etc

Point 1 is incorrect.

In what way? I disagree with him that an Israeli victory is certain.

I think the Iranian military is designed to repell invaders and for domestic suppression. The Israeli military is going to be better set for state v state warfare. They are both different and difficult to compare, so any outcome is unknown.

Israeli army live on a myth of their own creation. Hezbollah will be enough to tie them down

Look at a map. How does the US get to Iran?

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:09 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:05 pm

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 12:31 pm

Point 1 is incorrect.

In what way? I disagree with him that an Israeli victory is certain.

I think the Iranian military is designed to repell invaders and for domestic suppression. The Israeli military is going to be better set for state v state warfare. They are both different and difficult to compare, so any outcome is unknown.

Israeli army live on a myth of their own creation. Hezbollah will be enough to tie them down

Look at a map. How does the US get to Iran?

Oh, I agree. Hezbollah have c150K cruise missiles donated by Iran, aimed straight at Israel. And Iran's geography gives it formidable defences before you even have to contend with its military.

Even the US, at the height of its global supremacy, knew better than to try an invasion of Iran. I think asymmetric warfare is most likely, with sparodic battles breaking out in the regions between Israel and Iran and in the sea lanes.

Dunners wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:18 pm

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:09 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:05 pm

In what way? I disagree with him that an Israeli victory is certain.

I think the Iranian military is designed to repell invaders and for domestic suppression. The Israeli military is going to be better set for state v state warfare. They are both different and difficult to compare, so any outcome is unknown.

Israeli army live on a myth of their own creation. Hezbollah will be enough to tie them down

Look at a map. How does the US get to Iran?

Oh, I agree. Hezbollah have c150K cruise missiles donated by Iran, aimed straight at Israel. And Iran's geography gives it formidable defences before you even have to contend with its military.

Even the US, at the height of its global supremacy, knew better than to try an invasion of Iran. I think asymmetric warfare is most likely, with sparodic battles breaking out in the regions between Israel and Iran and in the sea lanes.

Iran control the sea lanes. I can see a few carriers going down.

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 3:59 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:18 pm

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:09 pm

Israeli army live on a myth of their own creation. Hezbollah will be enough to tie them down

Look at a map. How does the US get to Iran?

Oh, I agree. Hezbollah have c150K cruise missiles donated by Iran, aimed straight at Israel. And Iran's geography gives it formidable defences before you even have to contend with its military.

Even the US, at the height of its global supremacy, knew better than to try an invasion of Iran. I think asymmetric warfare is most likely, with sparodic battles breaking out in the regions between Israel and Iran and in the sea lanes.

Iran control the sea lanes. I can see a few carriers going down.

If that happens I could see a few Iranian patrol boats going up ........in flames .

It's started...

What happens if the Iranian missiles and drones overshoot the Holy Land and hit Gaza or come up short and obliterate the West Bank?

MalvoliO wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 10:02 pm What happens if the Iranian missiles and drones overshoot the Holy Land and hit Gaza or come up short and obliterate the West Bank?

Don't be so impatient. Wait and see what transpires in real time and then come back with questions.

faldO wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:56 pmIt's started...

Didn’t it start the other day?

Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 11:10 pm

faldO wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:56 pmIt's started...

Didn’t it start the other day?

Didn't it start in 1948?

faldO wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 12:18 am

Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 11:10 pm

faldO wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:56 pmIt's started...

Didn’t it start the other day?

Didn't it start in 1948?

I thought your line was it started on October 7th?

Some great predictions from out Middle-East Geo-Political Experts yesterday.

Oops.

I should have known better when I found myself agreeing with ComeOnYouOs.

However, in our defence, this may still be an isolated escalation from Iran as a way to demonstrate its military muscles. There's still some diminishing hope that it does not escalate further into a full-on war. So there's still time for me and him to grab an equaliser.

Isn't this not much more than a symbolic effort? Presumably Iran knew that almost all of their drones - Israel says 99% - would be intercepted and shot down? Or is it possibly a case of "chuck enough up and if even one gets through then it's a success"?

The more I read the more I think the former. Last night was just a display. The board's Middle-East Geo-Political Experts' reputations remain intact. Phew.

So volatile at the moment.

Decent effort to unite Western governments behind Israel though just as support was waning and at a tipping point

Give it to Jabo wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:14 am So volatile at the moment.

Nah, the Board's been much worse than this.

Perry Taul wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:48 am Decent effort to unite Western governments behind Israel though just as support was waning and at a tipping point

Mossad pulling the strings of the Iranian regime? Huge if true.

Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:01 am The more I read the more I think the former. Last night was just a display. The board's Middle-East Geo-Political Experts' reputations remain intact. Phew.

If you're banking on Netanyahu doing what everyone wants, then you haven't been paying attention.