Independent Leyton Orient Forum

No mention of the 131 deaths during the same period, funny how, when the death rate goes up it just doesn't seem to bother anyone.

Tell us why people should be bothered?

I have never understood it throughout this whole thing, and especially now why theres so much focus (and literally every media outlet uses it) on total positive cases. It's a useless stat. It could be 1 tomorrow because theres been 7 tests done.

does anyone know an easy way to see % of positive tests on a daily basis?

Percentage of Positive cases as a proportion of tests is still rising. (this is the only way to measure in real terms) Last seven days the figure stands at 3.69% it was 3.51% the previous week and 3.29% the 7 days before that. In fact positive tests as a percentage have risen for the last Eleven weeks.

If you divide the number of positive cases by the number of tests it gives you the figure. I have been doing this for ages and it gives a true representation of how much virus is about. In April before Delta took off the percentage was only 0.23%

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:12 pm Percentage of Positive cases as a proportion of tests is still rising. (this is the only way to measure in real terms) Last seven days the figure stands at 3.69 it was 3.51 the previous week and 3.29 the 7 days before that. In fact positive tests as a percentage have risen for the last Eleven weeks.

Add that to the rising Hospital admissions and the huge leap in Critical beds allocated to Covid patients and it's not great news.

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:12 pm Percentage of Positive cases as a proportion of tests is still rising. (this is the only way to measure in real terms) Last seven days the figure stands at 3.69% it was 3.51% the previous week and 3.29% the 7 days before that. In fact positive tests as a percentage have risen for the last Eleven weeks.

If you divide the number of positive cases by the number of tests it gives you the figure. I have been doing this for ages and it gives a true representation of how much virus is about. In April before Delta took off the percentage was only 0.23%

Good point, that really is the best way.

Have those % differences been sig tested though? I'm guessing they aren't significantly different week on week.

Last Fourteen weeks percentages of tests proving positive:-

0.23 - 0.24 - 0.26 - 0.27 - 0.31 - 0.48 - 0.68 - 0.91 - 1.11 - 1.78 - 2.57 - 3.29 - 3.51 - 3.61.

First few results were pre Delta you can see the excelleration Delta brought.

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:01 am If the data is correct and we’re genuinely seeing less virus, then the surge throughout June and into the start of July is purely down to the Euros. That’s staggering.

Why is that staggering? I’d have thought it was f*cking obvious.

Chicken Dhansak wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:28 pm No mention of the 131 deaths during the same period, funny how, when the death rate goes up it just doesn't seem to bother anyone.

These are from cases say what, 2 weeks ago?

If the cases are so much lower today than they were 2 weeks ago and still falling, then deaths will decrease dramatically in 2 weeks or so too.

Stowaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:52 pm

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:01 am If the data is correct and we’re genuinely seeing less virus, then the surge throughout June and into the start of July is purely down to the Euros. That’s staggering.

Why is that staggering? I’d have thought it was f*cking obvious.

If it was obvious, why was it all allowed/encouraged?

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:53 pm

Chicken Dhansak wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:28 pm No mention of the 131 deaths during the same period, funny how, when the death rate goes up it just doesn't seem to bother anyone.

These are from cases say what, 2 weeks ago?

If the cases are so much lower today than they were 2 weeks ago and still falling, then deaths will decrease dramatically in 2 weeks or so too.

Should do but cases grew quite steeply in the first part of that two week period so likely to go up higher first, caveat to that is deaths can take a few days to register so has never been accurate to the date they are reported.

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:02 pm I have never understood it throughout this whole thing, and especially now why theres so much focus (and literally every media outlet uses it) on total positive cases.

The way we test in this country means that virtually anywhere else in the world would have less cases than us. The lab test used in europe is put through three investagive passes looking for Covid so if it's a positive then no doubt you have it, From memory in this country we do about twice as many and by doing that many passes it picks up anti bodies and traces of Covid that wouldnt show elsewhere and counts it as a positive.

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:55 pm

Stowaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:52 pm

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:01 am If the data is correct and we’re genuinely seeing less virus, then the surge throughout June and into the start of July is purely down to the Euros. That’s staggering.

Why is that staggering? I’d have thought it was f*cking obvious.

If it was obvious, why was it all allowed/encouraged?

My guess is that it was allowed because the government is working towards the herd immunity theory. We have some 70% of adults vaccinated now, and I don’t think there’s the money or the Will to keep having lockdowns when cases rise. Plus, a significant (and very vocal) percentage of people won’t take well to it.

Actually I tend to agree with it, tbh. It’s been 18 months now, that’s a long time. The vaccine is the only effective weapon against it - lockdowns are just delaying the inevitable; just look at Australia. Without a good vaccine programme it’s just pointless. As long as we have covidiots who won’t have the vaccine we’re going to have to allow them to cop it and hope that the rest of us will have built up enough immunity. I can’t see myself wanting to attend large outdoor events or small indoor events such as gigs or crowded pubs for some while yet, because I’m not sure that the immunity levels will be high enough by then.
Also, my wife is working towards her final exams which involves meeting patients and making observations etc. If she tests positive then she can’t make these visits, and she won’t have enough data for her finals. So she’s asked me not to go to any events to help her stay safe until December, after her finals. It’ll be a massive pisser tbh, but it’s taken her 4 years of hard work to get this far, and we can’t risk it. So no football or gigs for me this year. Woo.

As far as I know, there is no scientific knowledge on how long antibodies last.
Could be as little as six weeks after the second jab.

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:12 pm Percentage of Positive cases as a proportion of tests is still rising. (this is the only way to measure in real terms) Last seven days the figure stands at 3.69% it was 3.51% the previous week and 3.29% the 7 days before that. In fact positive tests as a percentage have risen for the last Eleven weeks.

If you divide the number of positive cases by the number of tests it gives you the figure. I have been doing this for ages and it gives a true representation of how much virus is about. In April before Delta took off the percentage was only 0.23%

I like the approach but there is another variable here. There are "hot-spots" of infection and conversely, areas where infection rates are very low. If,by accident or design, testing numbers are higher in "hot spots" then the percentage of positive tests will be higher than if the testing numbers are higher in "low infection" areas.

Your model needs a uniform/constant in numbers of tests in all areas over time. I am not sure that this is the case, again, by accident or design uncertain.

Story of O wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:47 am Tests are down 10%, cases are down about 50%. So the drop in cases can’t all be down to less testing.

People might not actually be reporting that they haven't to stop them and their mates having to quarantine. We went to the open golf and one of the guys we went with tested positive (reckons he got it at the Euro Final as both him and his son were positive). So have just been in quarantine (not an experience I care to repeat )for 8 days by the time they contacted me. One of the other guys is self employed and it's cost him £1500 he spoke to the test and trace people and they were quite aggressive apparently.

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:55 pm

Stowaway wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:52 pm

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:01 am If the data is correct and we’re genuinely seeing less virus, then the surge throughout June and into the start of July is purely down to the Euros. That’s staggering.

Why is that staggering? I’d have thought it was f*cking obvious.

If it was obvious, why was it all allowed/encouraged?

The government has always wanted herd immunity. Now that the vulnerable have been jabbed these sort of events encourage it whilst those attending celebrate their freedom.

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:37 am

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:12 pm Percentage of Positive cases as a proportion of tests is still rising. (this is the only way to measure in real terms) Last seven days the figure stands at 3.69% it was 3.51% the previous week and 3.29% the 7 days before that. In fact positive tests as a percentage have risen for the last Eleven weeks.

If you divide the number of positive cases by the number of tests it gives you the figure. I have been doing this for ages and it gives a true representation of how much virus is about. In April before Delta took off the percentage was only 0.23%

I like the approach but there is another variable here. There are "hot-spots" of infection and conversely, areas where infection rates are very low. If,by accident or design, testing numbers are higher in "hot spots" then the percentage of positive tests will be higher than if the testing numbers are higher in "low infection" areas.

Your model needs a uniform/constant in numbers of tests in all areas over time. I am not sure that this is the case, again, by accident or design uncertain.

Hot spots will always happen but that’s been the case since day one, impossible to isolate different areas the only constant is to take cases vs tests as a whole. Having a uniform or set number of tests a day won’t ever happen but it doesn’t change the equation overall.
Have to try and deal with data as it stands it will never be perfect numbers.

Presumably the ONS survey is geographically representative and using random sampling though, which should strip out some potential biases?

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 9:29 am

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:37 am

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:12 pm Percentage of Positive cases as a proportion of tests is still rising. (this is the only way to measure in real terms) Last seven days the figure stands at 3.69% it was 3.51% the previous week and 3.29% the 7 days before that. In fact positive tests as a percentage have risen for the last Eleven weeks.

If you divide the number of positive cases by the number of tests it gives you the figure. I have been doing this for ages and it gives a true representation of how much virus is about. In April before Delta took off the percentage was only 0.23%

I like the approach but there is another variable here. There are "hot-spots" of infection and conversely, areas where infection rates are very low. If,by accident or design, testing numbers are higher in "hot spots" then the percentage of positive tests will be higher than if the testing numbers are higher in "low infection" areas.

Your model needs a uniform/constant in numbers of tests in all areas over time. I am not sure that this is the case, again, by accident or design uncertain.

Hot spots will always happen but that’s been the case since day one, impossible to isolate different areas the only constant is to take cases vs tests as a whole. Having a uniform or set number of tests a day won’t ever happen but it doesn’t change the equation overall.
Have to try and deal with data as it stands it will never be perfect numbers.

Cases vs tests will give you a top-level aggregate number I agree. However if, at any time, the number of tests in "hot-spots" was reduced more than in a "low area" then the percentage number is skewed. The "mix" of where tests are taken is significant.

Current data on Gov website goes up until 22nd July but shows greatest reductions in tests in the North East and North West. The next set of data should be more revealing.

I’ve been taking part in the Covid study for the past year or more, and last week I was asked if I’d like to take an antibody test. So took the test at home on Monday and sent the kit back on Tuesday morning, and I just got the result back -


Dear Stowaway
Birth date: 17 October 1962

Thank you for doing a coronavirus (COVID-19) antibody test.

No antibodies were found in your blood sample.

This means it’s unlikely you’ve had COVID-19 in the last 6 months.

It’s important to keep following coronavirus advice.

This test only looked for antibodies from an infection, rather than antibodies made after the vaccination.

Stowaway wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:01 pm I’ve been taking part in the Covid study for the past year or more, and last week I was asked if I’d like to take an antibody test. So took the test at home on Monday and sent the kit back on Tuesday morning, and I just got the result back -


Dear Stowaway
Birth date: 17 October 1962

Thank you for doing a coronavirus (COVID-19) antibody test.

No antibodies were found in your blood sample.

This means it’s unlikely you’ve had COVID-19 in the last 6 months.

It’s important to keep following coronavirus advice.

This test only looked for antibodies from an infection, rather than antibodies made after the vaccination.

The ONS one, or the one IPSOS are running?

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:25 pm

Sad. Does she work for the club or is she a fan?

Prominent fan. Have heard suggestions she was not jabbed.