Independent Leyton Orient Forum

But - and I’m not being facetious here - elsewhere you stated (correctly) that Labour have wriggle room to be more progressive. But here - despite the fact that under Starmer Labour have gone from nowhere near power to pretty much a government in waiting - you’re suggesting that alienating the left is risky?
(Note - I’m talking only of strategy and consistent arguments here, not about the ethical/moral imperative to cater to the left)

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:50 pm But - and I’m not being facetious here - elsewhere you stated (correctly) that Labour have wriggle room to be more progressive. But here - despite the fact that under Starmer Labour have gone from nowhere near power to pretty much a government in waiting - you’re suggesting that alienating the left is risky?
(Note - I’m talking only of strategy and consistent arguments here, not about the ethical/moral imperative to cater to the left)

To a point but i suspect the polls will get closer at some time nearer the election and historically it's always been harder for Labour to gain majorities in England due to the constituency makeup. They can't rely on 30-40 scottish seats any longer like previous labour leaders could.

I get the strategy to a point (although clearly I don't agree with it) however, lots of younger voters felt engaged and energised to engage in politics by Corbyn and the alternative he was offering. By throwing him under the bus and basically telling the left to f*ck off, it's a lot of potential labour voters and activists alienated for this and future elections.

Regardless of how Blair turned out and what he was (and clearly I'm no great admirer), he did, back in 97, appeal to almost every type of disgruntled voter with an alternative progressive vision that appealed to not only those at the bottom of the ladder but also the much needed "middle england". Reading back through political diaries at the time, Labour's position of inevitable winners was secured by the alternative they set out two years before the election and spent that period smashing the Tories all over the place with it - Major's government couldn't even pick up Labour's policies (many of which were rehashed Tory ideas) as they'd look even weaker for doing so. Starmer's nowhere near that type of appeal or momentum despite the Tories being even more toxic now than they were then. He's 20 points ahead because the Tories are so f*cking bad and hasn't put forward a single sniff of anything encouraging. Only 2 weeks ago he's telling everyone that there's loads of great ideas (?) but he won't be able to do them in government. Seriously?

There's still a lot of ground to cover between here and the end of 2024. I'm not saying the Tories will recover enough to win, but there's a danger that voter apathy will become the biggest factor to overcome. As I've said, Labour could really take advantage if they had a big enough vision and policy platform from here - however, so far, it's flags, crackdowns and sh*t sarnies. No real change on offer - just a slight tinkering and being custodians of the same sh*t system until such time as the Tories de-toxify and return as the natural party of government.

Most of those younger voters who were attracted to Corbyn's Labour reside in strong Labour constituencies. So, under the current system, they don't matter.

Most of us on this board will live in strong Labour or Tory constituencies, so this is all academic really. The only ones whose votes may count will be those living in English marginals, or Scotch voters who may switch away from the SNP.

Beradogs and Max. Basically, it's all about Beradogs and Max. A party that can convince them to vote for it will win.

I think Dunners is right to observe that Starmer has so far fought each battle separately. It’s obviously quite cynical in that way, but I can see why. But I do think that that’s the lens through which to view Starmer - navigating into power. I don’t think we yet know what that will look like, but I suspect that the most optimistic and the most pessimistic will both be wrong.

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:30 pm

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:27 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:21 pm and I’ll always vote for the party wot pledges to share the jam. Can you tell me how we get that party under the current electoral system, and with the current set up of mainstream media?

Sirkier isn't vowing to share out the jam, he's vowing to give you a little bit less sh*t spread in your sh*t sandwich.

Also, why are you bringing the MSM into this?

I didn’t say he is sharing out the jam. I’m saying that if Labour is saying they’ll share out the jam: great! I want to vote for that! - but ah, not so great, unfortunately we’ve lost the election, so it’s back to the maximum amount of poo in a sandwich

So people will vote to keep with the sh*t sandwiches, only with slightly less sh*t in them, but won't vote for jam sandwiches?

There has never been a better time to tell everyone where all the jam is.

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:37 pm
So people will vote to keep with the sh*t sandwiches, only with slightly less sh*t in them, but won't vote for jam sandwiches?

Yes. People are generally quite thick. Any strategy needs to start from that assumption.

And - and I’m sorry to Labour the point - but your recognition that the tories are the natural party of government is acknowledgment that that’s how it is in practice, as much as we don’t like it.
In my lifetime, the only way Labour has been able to disrupt that *is* by placating convincable tories to switch votes, and then demonstrate that being a bit more progressive doesn’t harm them too much.
I really wanted a better version of Labour to be able to do more, but that experiment - which I supported - didn’t work. Could it work in the future? I hope so, but honestly the way that the Labour left has responded to 2019 has left a lot to be desired (again - not an endorsement of the Labour right) and has retreated into what feels like a mixture of an almighty sulk and an assumption that anyone a bit disillusioned should F off and vote Tory.

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:37 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:30 pm

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:27 pm

Sirkier isn't vowing to share out the jam, he's vowing to give you a little bit less sh*t spread in your sh*t sandwich.

Also, why are you bringing the MSM into this?

I didn’t say he is sharing out the jam. I’m saying that if Labour is saying they’ll share out the jam: great! I want to vote for that! - but ah, not so great, unfortunately we’ve lost the election, so it’s back to the maximum amount of poo in a sandwich

So people will vote to keep with the sh*t sandwiches, only with slightly less sh*t in them, but won't vote for jam sandwiches?

There has never been a better time to tell everyone where all the jam is.

I mean, the answer to this is just “yes”. People will vote against their own interests.

I don’t even think jam sandwiches are that nice of a filling to be honest

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:32 pm Most of those younger voters who were attracted to Corbyn's Labour reside in strong Labour constituencies. So, under the current system, they don't matter.

Most of us on this board will live in strong Labour or Tory constituencies, so this is all academic really. The only ones whose votes may count will be those living in English marginals, or Scotch voters who may switch away from the SNP.

Beradogs and Max. Basically, it's all about Beradogs and Max. A party that can convince them to vote for it will win.

I'm not voting for a red or yellow sh*t sandwich. I will waste my vote on a TUSC or SSP candidate.

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:46 pm And - and I’m sorry to Labour the point - but your recognition that the tories are the natural party of government is acknowledgment that that’s how it is in practice, as much as we don’t like it.
In my lifetime, the only way Labour has been able to disrupt that *is* by placating convincable tories to switch votes, and then demonstrate that being a bit more progressive doesn’t harm them too much.
I really wanted a better version of Labour to be able to do more, but that experiment - which I supported - didn’t work. Could it work in the future? I hope so, but honestly the way that the Labour left has responded to 2019 has left a lot to be desired (again - not an endorsement of the Labour right) and has retreated into what feels like a mixture of an almighty sulk and an assumption that anyone a bit disillusioned should F off and vote Tory.

What would have been the correct response from the Labour left?

I doubt any of us sulkers are intending to vote Tory instead of Labour.

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:57 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:32 pm Most of those younger voters who were attracted to Corbyn's Labour reside in strong Labour constituencies. So, under the current system, they don't matter.

Most of us on this board will live in strong Labour or Tory constituencies, so this is all academic really. The only ones whose votes may count will be those living in English marginals, or Scotch voters who may switch away from the SNP.

Beradogs and Max. Basically, it's all about Beradogs and Max. A party that can convince them to vote for it will win.

I'm not voting for a red or yellow sh*t sandwich. I will waste my vote on a TUSC or SSP candidate.

Then Labour are dooooomed.

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:46 pm And - and I’m sorry to Labour the point - but your recognition that the tories are the natural party of government is acknowledgment that that’s how it is in practice, as much as we don’t like it.
In my lifetime, the only way Labour has been able to disrupt that *is* by placating convincable tories to switch votes, and then demonstrate that being a bit more progressive doesn’t harm them too much.
I really wanted a better version of Labour to be able to do more, but that experiment - which I supported - didn’t work. Could it work in the future? I hope so, but honestly the way that the Labour left has responded to 2019 has left a lot to be desired (again - not an endorsement of the Labour right) and has retreated into what feels like a mixture of an almighty sulk and an assumption that anyone a bit disillusioned should F off and vote Tory.

My comment about the natural party of government is about how each party tends to approach elections. Tories expect to govern, Labour tends to look grateful that it’s getting a turn at the control.

I’m not sure what else the left was meant to do since 2019? It’s spent most of the time since then being either ridiculed for the 2019 result or more regularly told to f*ck off by both right leaning members and politicians (many of whom actively worked against their own party’s leadership in both 2017 and 2019). The notion that Labour is a broad church has always been bollocks and continues to be so.

We’re probably also a bit tired of being told to leave it to the grown ups who’ve now delivered the most unequal society in many a year. Like this current sh*t show is our fault…. For the record I’ve never suggested that anyone should vote Tory. If anything it’s us on the left who’re accused of being Tory enablers for merely questioning anything the centrists or Labour right are doing.

Well, the first thing I would’ve hoped for would’ve been a substantial period of reflection at what went wrong, which bits of what went wrong were to do with things that were foreseeable and resolvable, and then not going on the attack when some are disillusioned and instead waiting until they have something new and compelling to say before asserting that their way really is going to get us into power.

Perhaps acknowledge that after an electoral disaster, that yes, it’s absolutely better to get the tories out on a less radical platform and then try to press for more once we’re in govt?

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:06 pm Well, the first thing I would’ve hoped for would’ve been a substantial period of reflection at what went wrong, which bits of what went wrong were to do with things that were foreseeable and resolvable, and then not going on the attack when some are disillusioned and instead waiting until they have something new and compelling to say before asserting that their way really is going to get us into power.

Perhaps acknowledge that after an electoral disaster, that yes, it’s absolutely better to get the tories out on a less radical platform and then try to press for more once we’re in govt?

Who’s on the attack? The left are now marginalised into irrelevance and will remain so for another generation.

I’m just opining that whilst Labour will get a go at being in power, there’s no suggestion they’re going to do much with it. Which is a shame for those who really need change.

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:06 pm Well, the first thing I would’ve hoped for would’ve been a substantial period of reflection at what went wrong, which bits of what went wrong were to do with things that were foreseeable and resolvable, and then not going on the attack when some are disillusioned and instead waiting until they have something new and compelling to say before asserting that their way really is going to get us into power.

Perhaps acknowledge that after an electoral disaster, that yes, it’s absolutely better to get the tories out on a less radical platform and then try to press for more once we’re in govt?

IT WASNT A f*cking RADICAL PLATFORM FFS!

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:15 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:06 pm Well, the first thing I would’ve hoped for would’ve been a substantial period of reflection at what went wrong, which bits of what went wrong were to do with things that were foreseeable and resolvable, and then not going on the attack when some are disillusioned and instead waiting until they have something new and compelling to say before asserting that their way really is going to get us into power.

Perhaps acknowledge that after an electoral disaster, that yes, it’s absolutely better to get the tories out on a less radical platform and then try to press for more once we’re in govt?

IT WASNT A f*cking RADICAL PLATFORM FFS!

It was for some who seem content to be sold smaller sh*t sandwiches.

Admin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:05 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:46 pm And - and I’m sorry to Labour the point - but your recognition that the tories are the natural party of government is acknowledgment that that’s how it is in practice, as much as we don’t like it.
In my lifetime, the only way Labour has been able to disrupt that *is* by placating convincable tories to switch votes, and then demonstrate that being a bit more progressive doesn’t harm them too much.
I really wanted a better version of Labour to be able to do more, but that experiment - which I supported - didn’t work. Could it work in the future? I hope so, but honestly the way that the Labour left has responded to 2019 has left a lot to be desired (again - not an endorsement of the Labour right) and has retreated into what feels like a mixture of an almighty sulk and an assumption that anyone a bit disillusioned should F off and vote Tory.

My comment about the natural party of government is about how each party tends to approach elections. Tories expect to govern, Labour tends to look grateful that it’s getting a turn at the control.

I’m not sure what else the left was meant to do since 2019? It’s spent most of the time since then being either ridiculed for the 2019 result or more regularly told to f*ck off by both right leaning members and politicians (many of whom actively worked against their own party’s leadership in both 2017 and 2019). The notion that Labour is a broad church has always been bollocks and continues to be so.

We’re probably also a bit tired of being told to leave it to the grown ups who’ve now delivered the most unequal society in many a year. Like this current sh*t show is our fault…. For the record I’ve never suggested that anyone should vote Tory. If anything it’s us on the left who’re accused of being Tory enablers for merely questioning anything the centrists or Labour right are doing.

Well, I count myself as on the left, and my personal reaction to 2019 was “ah. sh*t. The people who seemed certain that Labour couldn’t win under Corbyn were right. Hmmm. Don’t know what to think now, but I should probably not be bullish. Wait - apparently lots of people who, like me, were enthusiastic about Corbyn *are* bullish. Hold on a minute lads, don’t we need to regroup a bit fir… ah, ok, apparently I’m not left wing anymore. Whoops”

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:15 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:06 pm Well, the first thing I would’ve hoped for would’ve been a substantial period of reflection at what went wrong, which bits of what went wrong were to do with things that were foreseeable and resolvable, and then not going on the attack when some are disillusioned and instead waiting until they have something new and compelling to say before asserting that their way really is going to get us into power.

Perhaps acknowledge that after an electoral disaster, that yes, it’s absolutely better to get the tories out on a less radical platform and then try to press for more once we’re in govt?

IT WASNT A f*cking RADICAL PLATFORM FFS!

I didn’t specify a degree of radicalism. It was perceived as radical and the bits of the electorate that matter were “spooked” by what they perceived.
Do you think they won’t be spooked if we try again next time?

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:22 pm

Admin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:05 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:46 pm And - and I’m sorry to Labour the point - but your recognition that the tories are the natural party of government is acknowledgment that that’s how it is in practice, as much as we don’t like it.
In my lifetime, the only way Labour has been able to disrupt that *is* by placating convincable tories to switch votes, and then demonstrate that being a bit more progressive doesn’t harm them too much.
I really wanted a better version of Labour to be able to do more, but that experiment - which I supported - didn’t work. Could it work in the future? I hope so, but honestly the way that the Labour left has responded to 2019 has left a lot to be desired (again - not an endorsement of the Labour right) and has retreated into what feels like a mixture of an almighty sulk and an assumption that anyone a bit disillusioned should F off and vote Tory.

My comment about the natural party of government is about how each party tends to approach elections. Tories expect to govern, Labour tends to look grateful that it’s getting a turn at the control.

I’m not sure what else the left was meant to do since 2019? It’s spent most of the time since then being either ridiculed for the 2019 result or more regularly told to f*ck off by both right leaning members and politicians (many of whom actively worked against their own party’s leadership in both 2017 and 2019). The notion that Labour is a broad church has always been bollocks and continues to be so.

We’re probably also a bit tired of being told to leave it to the grown ups who’ve now delivered the most unequal society in many a year. Like this current sh*t show is our fault…. For the record I’ve never suggested that anyone should vote Tory. If anything it’s us on the left who’re accused of being Tory enablers for merely questioning anything the centrists or Labour right are doing.

Well, I count myself as on the left, and my personal reaction to 2019 was “ah. sh*t. The people who seemed certain that Labour couldn’t win under Corbyn were right. Hmmm. Don’t know what to think now, but I should probably not be bullish. Wait - apparently lots of people who, like me, were enthusiastic about Corbyn *are* bullish. Hold on a minute lads, don’t we need to regroup a bit fir… ah, ok, apparently I’m not left wing anymore. Whoops”

We’re 3 years on. How long should we sit quietly for?

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:40 pm

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:37 pm
So people will vote to keep with the sh*t sandwiches, only with slightly less sh*t in them, but won't vote for jam sandwiches?

Yes. People are generally quite thick. Any strategy needs to start from that assumption.

Just tell 'em a brown person or a public sector worker wants to take their sandwich and watch 'em wolf it down.

Well… since Labour has turned the polls on their head and are on course for government, I’d say it’s fine to start talking about what you want a Starmer government to do, but maybe those of us who were adamant that Corbyn could win should hold off on the advice about strategy for getting into government for a few years yet

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:30 pm

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:15 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:06 pm Well, the first thing I would’ve hoped for would’ve been a substantial period of reflection at what went wrong, which bits of what went wrong were to do with things that were foreseeable and resolvable, and then not going on the attack when some are disillusioned and instead waiting until they have something new and compelling to say before asserting that their way really is going to get us into power.

Perhaps acknowledge that after an electoral disaster, that yes, it’s absolutely better to get the tories out on a less radical platform and then try to press for more once we’re in govt?

IT WASNT A f*cking RADICAL PLATFORM FFS!

I didn’t specify a degree of radicalism. It was perceived as radical and the bits of the electorate that matter were “spooked” by what they perceived.
Do you think they won’t be spooked if we try again next time?

It was never the platform that spooked the electorate tho, was it? It was Magic grandpa and his portrayal. The actual moderately progressive policies were broadly popular. Nationalised utilities, if not nationalised sausages, are not beyond the pale are they?

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:32 pm Well… since Labour has turned the polls on their head and are on course for government, I’d say it’s fine to start talking about what you want a Starmer government to do, but maybe those of us who were adamant that Corbyn could win should hold off on the advice about strategy for getting into government for a few years yet

Isn't it really just the Tories who've turned the polls on their heads? They must be partially responsible - it's not all the brilliance of Labour.

StillSpike wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:35 pm

CEB wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 7:32 pm Well… since Labour has turned the polls on their head and are on course for government, I’d say it’s fine to start talking about what you want a Starmer government to do, but maybe those of us who were adamant that Corbyn could win should hold off on the advice about strategy for getting into government for a few years yet

Isn't it really just the Tories who've turned the polls on their heads? They must be partially responsible - it's not all the brilliance of Labour.

I was being slightly facetious, and I think I’ve tried to convey that I’m not at all excited by Starmer’s Labour at the moment. But yes, absolutely the Tories’ implosion is a big factor, but that hasn’t happened in a vacuum, and Labour as a threat has played a part, too.

To be honest, I suspect that if 2019 hadn’t happpened, Covid may well have been the opportunity for the previous regime to really go for the tories and capture the mood of the nation. But I’m trying to just look at the reality, and for me, all I’m saying is that without a credible road map to power (eg one that deals with the context and electoral system as it is, not as we’d like it to be) then the “bit less sh*t” is better than “same amount of sh*t”, with the added bonus that in power, Labour might actually do more for society’s most vulnerable