Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:45 am**

Here’s the link to the paper concerned. It has been published and its available to be peer reviewed, but for some reason and I for one can’t think why no one has so far peer reviewed it. Funny that?

https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X2LoQRrTWf0

Regardless of the rest of your post PO it needs to be reviewed, dissected and people of substance speak up. She has a solid background on the subject matter so she’s not some nutjob, personally it speaks volumes that the scientific community remain silent on such claims.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:47 am**

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:51 pm
Dohnut wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:40 pm
tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:24 pm

Other countries testing worked
Other Countries prepared properly
After the Initial outbreak .
This bunch of chancers have stumbled
From pillar to post on everything they do.
I’m not trying to make any political points here. My dislike for Johnson is well documented. But the numbers are public, published daily and pretty clear. In fact, that we were slow off the blocks makes our leading position more remarkable.

The issue is people trying to make hysterical political points in terms of testing that are not backed up by current numbers. Our current testing issues are a shambles. I worry, my daughter is a teacher, 6-7 year olds. Social distancing is near impossible and almost every day kids come in with all sorts of ailments. She worries about picking it up and spreading it around. It affects us as a family every day.

My sister is in a care home where Covid has been identified. Visiting restrictions of course. I wonder if I will ever see my sister again. Age and illness is not on her side.

But the shambles is there because we have pushed our systems to the limits and beyond to achieve incredible daily testing numbers and the cracks are showing. Ironically had the Government set more modest targets we would be coping very well. Ambition is being punished.
Again as has been said hoping you get a chance to see your sister ,
Cant agree with you about government testing .
Its been here since february & every week has been a shambles .

The moment Johnson let c*mm#ngs off the hook they have been screwed &
are now reaping the rewaerds of high infection rates once again.

More families to suffer unnecessary deaths because of the incompetance of this inept government !

The thing is I’m not making any political points, just looking at the numbers. Sure, challenge the numbers, how accurate they are and so on. But the numbers suggest our testing numbers are second to none when looking at countries of a decent sized population. Despite the current difficulties.

Now I don’t put this down to the Government but to the many hundreds of people who are working hard, in pressure situations, to do a job aimed at saving lives. I don’t believe they should be criticised when they are doing a world leading job. They need more Government help.

Then Cummings is blamed for the current increase. More politics. World numbers are on the increase. Look at Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland. Even Australia who did well first time have seen a second spike worse than the first. So this is The Cummings factor too? Of course not. It’s the nature of the virus. Cummings should have been sacked, his actions may have influenced a few idiots. But that is not the reason for the spikes as world figures prove.

Numbers will continue to grow as countries try to return to the new normality and people get used to the virus and relax precautions. That is not due to Government messages but human nature. A worldwide issue.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:08 am**

Shall we do that thing where I show that your assertion is absolutely wrong and then you get stroppy and say you can prove anything with statistics?

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:11 am**

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:24 pm
Dohnut wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:06 pm
kokomO wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:19 pm

Yeah well done, they've only had since March to make sure the capacity for testing would NEVER be a problem , now they're telling us in September at the beginning of the 2nd wave that the wrong people are taking the tests up....

Maybe if they allowed the profesional knowledgeable people to do the work rather than outsourcing the work to their corrupt and useless cronies/old pals we might have actually got somewhere

But as I say, well done with your response and observations, bravo
Of course we all know the history and the current situation. All countries have the same calendar, the same professional knowledge and no doubt the same issues, yet are nowhere near the levels of testing achieved in the UK. When measured by tests per million population. Having started behind the others we are now in front. So we have actually got somewhere. Further than others in fact. A recent BBC report acknowledged this too, surprisingly. So it’s not my observation but one reported by the Beeb.
Other countries testing worked
Other Countries prepared properly
After the Initial outbreak .
This bunch of chancers have stumbled
From pillar to post on everything they do.

Hindsight is no sight

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:25 am**

Remember discussing with the missus back in the early part of the year, and our instincts were to shut down international travel, outside goods/ justifiable exceptions, which would need to have suitable controls around it.

We are absolutely no experts on it, but can’t help but think had that happened, would have been an economic hit of course, the world would be in a better place right now, the likes of NZ came down harder than most and have done better than most after all.

Which then makes me wonder exactly what the WHO were doing - aren’t they meant to be the ones who are all over such stuff and steering the world in the right direction? Maybe it was inevitable it would end up like this, but I’m not so sure, and maybe they weren’t as on the ball as they should have been.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:32 am**

EastDerehamO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:25 am

Which then makes me wonder exactly what the WHO were doing - aren’t they meant to be the ones who are all over such stuff and steering the world in the right direction? Maybe it was inevitable it would end up like this, but I’m not so sure, and maybe they weren’t as on the ball as they should have been.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/29 ... idtimeline

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:39 am**

Dohnut wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:47 am
tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:51 pm
Dohnut wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:40 pm

I’m not trying to make any political points here. My dislike for Johnson is well documented. But the numbers are public, published daily and pretty clear. In fact, that we were slow off the blocks makes our leading position more remarkable.

The issue is people trying to make hysterical political points in terms of testing that are not backed up by current numbers. Our current testing issues are a shambles. I worry, my daughter is a teacher, 6-7 year olds. Social distancing is near impossible and almost every day kids come in with all sorts of ailments. She worries about picking it up and spreading it around. It affects us as a family every day.

My sister is in a care home where Covid has been identified. Visiting restrictions of course. I wonder if I will ever see my sister again. Age and illness is not on her side.

But the shambles is there because we have pushed our systems to the limits and beyond to achieve incredible daily testing numbers and the cracks are showing. Ironically had the Government set more modest targets we would be coping very well. Ambition is being punished.
Again as has been said hoping you get a chance to see your sister ,
Cant agree with you about government testing .
Its been here since february & every week has been a shambles .

The moment Johnson let c*mm#ngs off the hook they have been screwed &
are now reaping the rewaerds of high infection rates once again.

More families to suffer unnecessary deaths because of the incompetance of this inept government !
The thing is I’m not making any political points, just looking at the numbers. Sure, challenge the numbers, how accurate they are and so on. But the numbers suggest our testing numbers are second to none when looking at countries of a decent sized population. Despite the current difficulties.

Now I don’t put this down to the Government but to the many hundreds of people who are working hard, in pressure situations, to do a job aimed at saving lives. I don’t believe they should be criticised when they are doing a world leading job. They need more Government help.

Then Cummings is blamed for the current increase. More politics. World numbers are on the increase. Look at Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland. Even Australia who did well first time have seen a second spike worse than the first. So this is The Cummings factor too? Of course not. It’s the nature of the virus. Cummings should have been sacked, his actions may have influenced a few idiots. But that is not the reason for the spikes as world figures prove.

Numbers will continue to grow as countries try to return to the new normality and people get used to the virus and relax precautions. That is not due to Government messages but human nature. A worldwide issue.

You can keep posting this guff as often as you like but it doesn't alter the fact your beloved tories have death on their hands because of the way they have handled this.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:59 am**

And Labour 'have death on their hands' for the way they have handled 'this' in Wales, where they've only had a population of 3.5 million people to help through this crisis.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:02 am**

cymruO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:59 am And Labour 'have death on their hands' for the way they have handled 'this' in Wales, where they've only had a population of 3.5 million people to help through this crisis.

Serious question. Can you document the mistakes they've made much as has been done with the Tories in Westminster? Otherwise it's just a random statement.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:36 am**

Thor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:45 am Here’s the link to the paper concerned. It has been published and its available to be peer reviewed, but for some reason and I for one can’t think why no one has so far peer reviewed it. Funny that?

https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X2LoQRrTWf0

Regardless of the rest of your post PO it needs to be reviewed, dissected and people of substance speak up. She has a solid background on the subject matter so she’s not some nutjob, personally it speaks volumes that the scientific community remain silent on such claims.

I can tell you why. The reason being 'peer review' is done BEFORE publication to ensure quality control. They published it without peer review. It can't be peer reviewed now like that. So it's not a 'funny that?' scenario, they just stopped it from happening themselves.

The problem being Thor, and I mean this with respect, when you enjoy these sort of, shall we say, outside thinkers, you'll always find a way to ignore things to keep the more interesting/exciting option alive. I get that. You say the 'scientific community remain silent' but they do not. The WHO, The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, The Centre For Disease Control and Prevention, Columbia University, University of Hong Kong, University of Bath, University of Southampton all debunk her science or her specifically.

The University she claimed she did human-to-human transmission research on denied she even did that.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:49 pm**

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:39 am
Dohnut wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:47 am
tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:51 pm

Again as has been said hoping you get a chance to see your sister ,
Cant agree with you about government testing .
Its been here since february & every week has been a shambles .

The moment Johnson let c*mm#ngs off the hook they have been screwed &
are now reaping the rewaerds of high infection rates once again.

More families to suffer unnecessary deaths because of the incompetance of this inept government !
The thing is I’m not making any political points, just looking at the numbers. Sure, challenge the numbers, how accurate they are and so on. But the numbers suggest our testing numbers are second to none when looking at countries of a decent sized population. Despite the current difficulties.

Now I don’t put this down to the Government but to the many hundreds of people who are working hard, in pressure situations, to do a job aimed at saving lives. I don’t believe they should be criticised when they are doing a world leading job. They need more Government help.

Then Cummings is blamed for the current increase. More politics. World numbers are on the increase. Look at Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland. Even Australia who did well first time have seen a second spike worse than the first. So this is The Cummings factor too? Of course not. It’s the nature of the virus. Cummings should have been sacked, his actions may have influenced a few idiots. But that is not the reason for the spikes as world figures prove.

Numbers will continue to grow as countries try to return to the new normality and people get used to the virus and relax precautions. That is not due to Government messages but human nature. A worldwide issue.

You can keep posting this guff as often as you like but it doesn't alter the fact your beloved tories have death on their hands because of the way they have handled this.

You are missing the point. I am looking simply at the published numbers and coming to the same conclusion as a recent BBC summery. We are testing more than Germany, Spain, France etc. This is not a political stance, just one that examines the numbers. The U.K. was top when looking at countries with populations over 10 million.

The political angle is the Johnson Big Gob. He has make some huge claims. Telling everybody to get tested etc, to such a degree that the system fails when Covid cases increase. He is using stretch targets and the cracks are showing. The guy is dangerous. But that should not detract from what the U.K. has actually achieved.

Hoisted by his own petard.

So I am differentiating between Government issues and the achievements of those doing the job. And in no way do they deserve criticism for not being able to deliver on Government promises when in the attempt they have achieved world leading results. They need more help, the Government needs to step up and give them the tools do meet Bojos promises. If you believe that is praise for the current Government then I find that surprising.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 pm**

In my opinion testing capacity is not the main issue, it is a mixture of poor messaging from the Government about when to get a test, and the general public turning up for tests with a runny nose or less. This is exacerbated due to return to school/work after the summer.

As said above, the UK is already testing more than many other countries. There is some element of bottlenecks in labs but I don't think that's the main problem.

The number of actual positive tests is I believe less than 2% of the total tested, ie 98% of those tested don't have covid-19 (according to the test). Those numbers suggest a significant number of people should not be turning up for a test in the first place (regardless of the reason they go, whether told to or not, etc).

The more the capacity increases, the more people are going to turn up for a test, especially as winter comes and people get colds, so increasing testing capacity is probably pointless without some kind of more direct management of who goes for a test.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:53 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 pm In my opinion testing capacity is not the main issue, it is a mixture of poor messaging from the Government about when to get a test, and the general public turning up for tests with a runny nose or less. This is exacerbated due to return to school/work after the summer.

As said above, the UK is already testing more than many other countries. There is some element of bottlenecks in labs but I don't think that's the main problem.

The number of actual positive tests is I believe less than 2% of the total tested, ie 98% of those tested don't have covid-19 (according to the test). Those numbers suggest a significant number of people should not be turning up for a test in the first place (regardless of the reason they go, whether told to or not, etc).

The more the capacity increases, the more people are going to turn up for a test, especially as winter comes and people get colds, so increasing testing capacity is probably pointless without some kind of more direct management of who goes for a test.

If only there was a test that could tell you if you need to get a test

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:55 pm**

Which leads us back inevitably to an inept government
having no idea of what they are doing because they
Simply have NO PLAN !.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:44 pm**

People are only going because they have 'runny noses' is because schools have gone back, and the government is pushing people to get back to the office. If anyones ill they get sent home. Personally know 2 peoples kids who have been sent home with what is clearly a cold, but the school are rightly not allowing anyone back until they have a negative covid test.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:59 pm**

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:44 pm Personally know 2 peoples kids who have been sent home with what is clearly a cold, but the school are rightly not allowing anyone back until they have a negative covid test.

Why is it right that kids who are sent home with what is clearly a cold are not allowed back at school until they have had a negative covid test?

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:18 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 pm In my opinion testing capacity is not the main issue, it is a mixture of poor messaging from the Government about when to get a test, and the general public turning up for tests with a runny nose or less. This is exacerbated due to return to school after the summer.

The germs don't spread in schools so your analysis doesn't stack up, sorry.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:26 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 pm In my opinion testing capacity is not the main issue, it is a mixture of poor messaging from the Government about when to get a test, and the general public turning up for tests with a runny nose or less. This is exacerbated due to return to school/work after the summer.

As said above, the UK is already testing more than many other countries. There is some element of bottlenecks in labs but I don't think that's the main problem.

The number of actual positive tests is I believe less than 2% of the total tested, ie 98% of those tested don't have covid-19 (according to the test). Those numbers suggest a significant number of people should not be turning up for a test in the first place (regardless of the reason they go, whether told to or not, etc).

The more the capacity increases, the more people are going to turn up for a test, especially as winter comes and people get colds, so increasing testing capacity is probably pointless without some kind of more direct management of who goes for a test.

That is an issue. At my daughters school kids are coming in daily with the usual stuff and everybody worries it may be Covid. The Government message has been for people to get a test. Sensible if you have capacity and speed of results to support that message. We appear to have neither. What results is the chaos we see. We are pushing messages beyond our capacity at the moment.

In my opinion the U.K. has excelled in terms of test numbers, my original point, that is beyond dispute. Credit to all involved in becoming leaders. But we seem to have created a culture of fear and panic in many areas. Even in areas like my daughters school where incidents are very low. I guess the aim is to keep it low.

I’m not too sure there is a perfect solution, obviously more and faster testing. But that need should not detract from what has been achieved so far.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:38 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:59 pm
Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:44 pm Personally know 2 peoples kids who have been sent home with what is clearly a cold, but the school are rightly not allowing anyone back until they have a negative covid test.
Why is it right that kids who are sent home with what is clearly a cold are not allowed back at school until they have had a negative covid test?

Probably a mixture of fear and unclear messaging on who should be sent home. i'd imagine the schools would rather send everyone home who's feeling unwell rather than not, risking an outbreak and people asking why they didnt send ill kids home.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:38 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:59 pm
Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:44 pm Personally know 2 peoples kids who have been sent home with what is clearly a cold, but the school are rightly not allowing anyone back until they have a negative covid test.
Why is it right that kids who are sent home with what is clearly a cold are not allowed back at school until they have had a negative covid test?

So someone doesnt sue the f*ck out of them if it turns out to be more than a cold possibly ?

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:00 pm**

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:38 pm
faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:59 pm
Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:44 pm Personally know 2 peoples kids who have been sent home with what is clearly a cold, but the school are rightly not allowing anyone back until they have a negative covid test.
Why is it right that kids who are sent home with what is clearly a cold are not allowed back at school until they have had a negative covid test?
Probably a mixture of fear and unclear messaging on who should be sent home. i'd imagine the schools would rather send everyone home who's feeling unwell rather than not, risking an outbreak and people asking why they didnt send ill kids home.

I don't disagree with any of those points, but it doesn't make it right, in the sense of being the correct thing to do. It's part of the risk-averse culture we live in.

It's perhaps human nature, and people are understandably concerned (partly through the fear that has been put around). But it's certainly adding to the capacity issues and providing more capacity at the testing centres and labs is just going to be taken up by more people going for tests as winter comes and more people fall ill, a bit like Parkinson's law.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:50 pm
The number of actual positive tests is I believe less than 2% of the total tested, ie 98% of those tested don't have covid-19 (according to the test). Those numbers suggest a significant number of people should not be turning up for a test in the first place (regardless of the reason they go, whether told to or not, etc).

It could also suggest that with 98% testing negative that the virus is not currently as prevalent or contagious as some reports suggest.

Lets be careful out there.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:18 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:00 pm
Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:38 pm
faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:59 pm

Why is it right that kids who are sent home with what is clearly a cold are not allowed back at school until they have had a negative covid test?
Probably a mixture of fear and unclear messaging on who should be sent home. i'd imagine the schools would rather send everyone home who's feeling unwell rather than not, risking an outbreak and people asking why they didnt send ill kids home.
I don't disagree with any of those points, but it doesn't make it right, in the sense of being the correct thing to do. It's part of the risk-averse culture we live in.

It's perhaps human nature, and people are understandably concerned (partly through the fear that has been put around). But it's certainly adding to the capacity issues and providing more capacity at the testing centres and labs is just going to be taken up by more people going for tests as winter comes and more people fall ill, a bit like Parkinson's law.

Dont disagree. But without so much as any inclination of leadership anywhere to be seen, I cant blame them.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:43 pm**

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:38 pm
faldO wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:59 pm
Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:44 pm Personally know 2 peoples kids who have been sent home with what is clearly a cold, but the school are rightly not allowing anyone back until they have a negative covid test.
Why is it right that kids who are sent home with what is clearly a cold are not allowed back at school until they have had a negative covid test?
So someone doesnt sue the f*ck out of them if it turns out to be more than a cold possibly ?

Pretty much. Guidance is that temperature, new persistent cough or loss of taste/smell trigger meams you need to isolate. No matter how stupid the guidance is if organisations don't follow it they are open to being sued. Don't know legislation around kids at school but if a teacher caught covid and was able to point to the guidance ignored the onus would move to the employer to prove they didn't catch it at school.

I've just had to work from home for the last few days because of a temperature, despite it meaning I would be the second person in the world with a confirmed reinfection and it being bloody obviously not covid, the advice meant I still had to get a test before coming back to work. Luckily I had a way of getting one which was only a little underhand but it's a complete waste of a test.

The wholw approach of focusing just on numbers of tests delivered and then fiddling the figures so targets could be claimed to have been hit has been at the expense of a sensible strategy around targeting tests and their follow up.

Posted: **Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:32 pm**

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54194333

This so & so crawls out from under the rock he's been hiding under i see.

Jacob wees fogg !

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