It was up over 50,000 at one point.
Quick counting change dropped it back to 41k
Now its at 45k+ its been dropped again.
Masterful manipulations .
Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.
Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.
People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.
Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
Getting a reasonable estimate for excess deaths is not the issue. This is simple mathematics.
The issue is working out why. For example death as a tested result of Covid infection, death due to a suspected but not tested Covid infection, not seeking medical attention for something completely unrelated due to Covid Infection fear or having treatment stopped/affected due to Covid demands elsewhere for example, therefore indirectly related to Covid.
Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.
Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.
People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.
Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
Getting a reasonable estimate for excess deaths is not the issue. This is simple mathematics.
The issue is working out why. For example death as a tested result of Covid infection, death due to a suspected but not tested Covid infection, not seeking medical attention for something completely unrelated due to Covid Infection fear or having treatment stopped/affected due to Covid demands elsewhere for example, therefore indirectly related to Covid.
You tell me the answers Bob.
No doh.
A mean number over 10 years of non pandemic death rate against
Pandemic death rate this year.
Subtract the smaller mean non pandemic number
From the bigger pandemic number.
No need to correlate tests .
Very simple.
Trying to manipulate for national or political or reasons is what needs to be ignored.
Top of the JES wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:36 pm
From Hugh Pym at the BBC:-
"For the week of 18-24 July, excluding deaths that took place more than 28 days after a positive test (the new policy) reduces the English death count by 75%: from 442 deaths to 111."
5000 deaths overall to be redefined as non Covid deaths after the PHE finally adopt the same system as other countries and acknowledge that not everyone who has had it dies from Covid.
It was up over 50,000 at one point.
Quick counting change dropped it back to 41k
Now its at 45k+ its been dropped again.
Masterful manipulations .
Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.
Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.
People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.
Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.
The different way that PHE calculated Covid deaths was because they left an open time window after initial diagnosis until death. Hence why there were some notable outliers where people were reported as dying of Covid even if they fell off a roof. The newly revised figures - to match the 28 day max period after diagnosis as used by Wales and Scotland - has reduced the Official Covid death toll by about 5K or roughly 10%. So, the original figures before this correction were not miles out as described by some.
However, under the new guidelines,if you die of complications due to Covid 28 days plus after diagnosis then it won't be reported as a Covid death and that's not right either.
I don't think you have to really look that hard to see just how badly Covid has been handled in the UK. With regard to this reporting "blip" - how the hell could the government have not been aware of this anomaly in reporting. It allowed loons to suggest that the original numbers were grossly wrong, some suggested that this was by design. It's just one more screw up to add to the pile of screw ups from Boris & chums.
All this generalisation about it being a Worldwide crisis, all making mistakes, political bias etc, whilst having some merits, is really just guff to deflect from the UK governments ineptitude and horrifying handling of this crisis.
Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.
Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.
People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.
Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
Getting a reasonable estimate for excess deaths is not the issue. This is simple mathematics.
The issue is working out why. For example death as a tested result of Covid infection, death due to a suspected but not tested Covid infection, not seeking medical attention for something completely unrelated due to Covid Infection fear or having treatment stopped/affected due to Covid demands elsewhere for example, therefore indirectly related to Covid.
You tell me the answers Bob.
OK. Two totally different things here.
First, I don't think anyone is expecting the Covid death total to include "non-covid deaths possibly attributable to removal/reduction of normal treatments" For example, people who have died from cancer due to removal of chemo treatments. It's clearly of public interest to know these numbers but it's not directly relevant to the Covid numbers.
With regard to Covid death numbers, then my understanding is that we are now including deaths of people who have died within 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid. I am open to be corrected here of course. So, this seems pretty clear. I'm not aware of the Covid death numbers including people who are "suspected but not tested of having Covid". Do you have any evidence of this?
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
Getting a reasonable estimate for excess deaths is not the issue. This is simple mathematics.
The issue is working out why. For example death as a tested result of Covid infection, death due to a suspected but not tested Covid infection, not seeking medical attention for something completely unrelated due to Covid Infection fear or having treatment stopped/affected due to Covid demands elsewhere for example, therefore indirectly related to Covid.
You tell me the answers Bob.
OK. Two totally different things here.
First, I don't think anyone is expecting the Covid death total to include "non-covid deaths possibly attributable to removal/reduction of normal treatments" For example, people who have died from cancer due to removal of chemo treatments. It's clearly of public interest to know these numbers but it's not directly relevant to the Covid numbers.
With regard to Covid death numbers, then my understanding is that we are now including deaths of people who have died within 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid. I am open to be corrected here of course. So, this seems pretty clear. I'm not aware of the Covid death numbers including people who are "suspected but not tested of having Covid". Do you have any evidence of this?
There is the average death rate as Tuffers correctly refers, usually calculated over the past 5 or 10 years giving a broad range, the one reported by, for example, the BBC.
Above this are those additional deaths Reportedly due to Covid.
However when you look at Data there is an excess that seems to be unaccounted for. Why? We know the numbers but we don’t know why. Is the true Covid toll higher than reported. Have people died due to disruption in treatment or no treatment (The answer to this is without doubt yes).
It was up over 50,000 at one point.
Quick counting change dropped it back to 41k
Now its at 45k+ its been dropped again.
Masterful manipulations .
Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.
Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.
People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.
Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
but there isn't any excess deaths. Please show me where they exist. Thanks.
Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.
Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.
People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.
Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
but there isn't any excess deaths. Please show me where they exist. Thanks.
You're the one making the claim that there are no excess deaths. YOU show the proof that there aren't any as you must have access to the data.
Getting a reasonable estimate for excess deaths is not the issue. This is simple mathematics.
The issue is working out why. For example death as a tested result of Covid infection, death due to a suspected but not tested Covid infection, not seeking medical attention for something completely unrelated due to Covid Infection fear or having treatment stopped/affected due to Covid demands elsewhere for example, therefore indirectly related to Covid.
You tell me the answers Bob.
OK. Two totally different things here.
First, I don't think anyone is expecting the Covid death total to include "non-covid deaths possibly attributable to removal/reduction of normal treatments" For example, people who have died from cancer due to removal of chemo treatments. It's clearly of public interest to know these numbers but it's not directly relevant to the Covid numbers.
With regard to Covid death numbers, then my understanding is that we are now including deaths of people who have died within 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid. I am open to be corrected here of course. So, this seems pretty clear. I'm not aware of the Covid death numbers including people who are "suspected but not tested of having Covid". Do you have any evidence of this?
There is the average death rate as Tuffers correctly refers, usually calculated over the past 5 or 10 years giving a broad range, the one reported by, for example, the BBC.
Above this are those additional deaths Reportedly due to Covid.
However when you look at Data there is an excess that seems to be unaccounted for. Why? We know the numbers but we don’t know why. Is the true Covid toll higher than reported. Have people died due to disruption in treatment or no treatment (The answer to this is without doubt yes).
Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.
Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.
People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.
Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
but there isn't any excess deaths. Please show me where they exist. Thanks.
Replying because I'm intrigued as to where you're going with this;
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
but there isn't any excess deaths. Please show me where they exist. Thanks.
Replying because I'm intrigued as to where you're going with this;
Is your point that we've largely gone back to normal? Or are you saying the above information is all false?
Its probably more to do with Mobile phone contracts .
In China during the outbreak there was a loss of about a 100,000 mobile phones,
Thor said that China was lying about numbers because of the inconsistency of the facts.
I assume mobile phone contracts here have stayed pretty much the same therefore
thor must think no one has died.
He would of course be better able to explain himself than I .
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
Getting a reasonable estimate for excess deaths is not the issue. This is simple mathematics.
The issue is working out why. For example death as a tested result of Covid infection, death due to a suspected but not tested Covid infection, not seeking medical attention for something completely unrelated due to Covid Infection fear or having treatment stopped/affected due to Covid demands elsewhere for example, therefore indirectly related to Covid.
You tell me the answers Bob.
OK. Two totally different things here.
First, I don't think anyone is expecting the Covid death total to include "non-covid deaths possibly attributable to removal/reduction of normal treatments" For example, people who have died from cancer due to removal of chemo treatments. It's clearly of public interest to know these numbers but it's not directly relevant to the Covid numbers.
With regard to Covid death numbers, then my understanding is that we are now including deaths of people who have died within 28 days of being diagnosed with Covid. I am open to be corrected here of course. So, this seems pretty clear. I'm not aware of the Covid death numbers including people who are "suspected but not tested of having Covid". Do you have any evidence of this?
Simple solution
Correlate a 10 year seasonal death rate
Take a mean sample & deduct it from this year specifically .
Bobs your uncle & there is your excess deaths number .
but there isn't any excess deaths. Please show me where they exist. Thanks.
Replying because I'm intrigued as to where you're going with this;
Is your point that we've largely gone back to normal? Or are you saying the above information is all false?
If you look at the ONS they show that deaths are increasing year on year since 2011 (where they had been decreasing since 1970) and the rate is increasing. In the latest figures available they mention that a flu has killed more people year on year up to 2017 and they don't know why. It mentions some of the deaths will be down to an aging population which is likely to continue. How big was the increase in 18/19 and now 20? How many more would have died on the trajectory we were on anyway?
Once lockdown commenced how many people died because they could not get treatment be it cancer, heart or whatever? How many died becuase of this and not because of covid?
How many people died in care homes? How many from a transfer from a hospital to a care home without a negative test result?
Why did WHO remove Covid from the highly infectious consequence disease list in what was it late march early April? Doesn't Covid have a recovery rate of 99.9%? Or some such extremely high number.
Why does Sweden have deaths by any measure lower than ours? Yet they did not execute a lockdown.
So while any death is sad I find what we are told sometimes a little hard to believe. Remember we were told face masks don't work? Yet now suddenly they do and we all have to wear one. We've been told so many different death figures since this started again its hard to believe whats the truth and what's a lie. Just last week they admitted to over counting deaths. Err Hello.
For me there are too many questions that need to be answered before we can determine what really is an excess death.
Is your point that we've largely gone back to normal? Or are you saying the above information is all false?
If you look at the ONS they show that deaths are increasing year on year since 2011 (where they had been decreasing since 1970) and the rate is increasing. In the latest figures available they mention that a flu has killed more people year on year up to 2017 and they don't know why. It mentions some of the deaths will be down to an aging population which is likely to continue. How big was the increase in 18/19 and now 20? How many more would have died on the trajectory we were on anyway?
Once lockdown commenced how many people died because they could not get treatment be it cancer, heart or whatever? How many died becuase of this and not because of covid?
How many people died in care homes? How many from a transfer from a hospital to a care home without a negative test result?
Why did WHO remove Covid from the highly infectious consequence disease list in what was it late march early April? Doesn't Covid have a recovery rate of 99.9%? Or some such extremely high number.
Why does Sweden have deaths by any measure lower than ours? Yet they did not execute a lockdown.
So while any death is sad I find what we are told sometimes a little hard to believe. Remember we were told face masks don't work? Yet now suddenly they do and we all have to wear one. We've been told so many different death figures since this started again its hard to believe whats the truth and what's a lie. Just last week they admitted to over counting deaths. Err Hello.
For me there are too many questions that need to be answered before we can determine what really is an excess death.
Is your point that we've largely gone back to normal? Or are you saying the above information is all false?
If you look at the ONS they show that deaths are increasing year on year since 2011 (where they had been decreasing since 1970) and the rate is increasing. In the latest figures available they mention that a flu has killed more people year on year up to 2017 and they don't know why. It mentions some of the deaths will be down to an aging population which is likely to continue. How big was the increase in 18/19 and now 20? How many more would have died on the trajectory we were on anyway?
Once lockdown commenced how many people died because they could not get treatment be it cancer, heart or whatever? How many died becuase of this and not because of covid?
How many people died in care homes? How many from a transfer from a hospital to a care home without a negative test result?
Why did WHO remove Covid from the highly infectious consequence disease list in what was it late march early April? Doesn't Covid have a recovery rate of 99.9%? Or some such extremely high number.
Why does Sweden have deaths by any measure lower than ours? Yet they did not execute a lockdown.
So while any death is sad I find what we are told sometimes a little hard to believe. Remember we were told face masks don't work? Yet now suddenly they do and we all have to wear one. We've been told so many different death figures since this started again its hard to believe whats the truth and what's a lie. Just last week they admitted to over counting deaths. Err Hello.
For me there are too many questions that need to be answered before we can determine what really is an excess death.
Do your own leg work.
You tell us what the trajectory is for rising flu deaths.
You tell us how many died of other cause because the NHS was stretched.
No idea about WHO policy or its relevance to your argument.
Not much point comparing countries as too many variables. Sweden has a deaths per million rate that is five times higher than Denmark though which is probably a better match than us.
The confusion with the face masks was because people thought they protected the user, when they are more effective protecting others. There was also a shortage of PPE at the time so govt probably didnt want a scramble for them.
Completely agree PW. It's Thors schtick to state wild claims with no backup whatsoever (apart from some highly dubious Twitter crap on occasion). He was stating that the US normally had 200K flu deaths a year only a few days ago when that number was out by a factor of 5 or 6. I wouldn't trust him if he told me that day followed night.
The government has quietly removed 1.3m coronavirus tests from its data because of double counting, raising fresh questions about the accuracy of the testing figures.
Spain has banned smoking in the street and all public spaces! All discos have been closed as well as then2nd wave appears to be both materialising and getting worse
Thor wrote: ↑Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:59 pm
Spain has banned smoking in the street and all public spaces! All discos have been closed as well as then2nd wave appears to be both materialising and getting worse
" Galicia, in the northeast of Spain, has introduced the ban on any public walkways where social distancing cannot be followed, after 827 new cases ".
Not in the street ,
More likely to stop people gathering outside of bars clubs restraunts etc
where smokers gather outside.
Another counting anomaly has been discovered, this time around hospital admissions with covid.
According to analysis done by SAGE, people admitted to hospital in March and April were counted as Covid admissions if they’d ever tested positive for the disease, regardless of how much time had elapsed between the test and the admissions and regardless of the actual reason they were being admitted.
So, test positive for covid in March, break a leg in April which requires hospital admission, and it's +1 to the covid admissions tally.
