Independent Leyton Orient Forum

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:33 pm

faldO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:19 pm Haven't read the US data and not really that interested...

ONS data for the past 5 or so weeks show more people died in England and Wales with flu/pneumonia mentioned on death certificates than covid-19. Even if both pneumonia AND covid were mentioned on the death certificate the number of flu deaths is still higher.

Thanks for that.

The number of infections in the UK is gradually increasing and deaths will almost inevitably rise a week or two later due to this. Whether the deaths from covid will once again exceed deaths from flu/pneumonia is an unknown at present. However, a trend showing an increase in infections cannot be good news can it.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:33 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:45 pm

Funny how he always seems to be reading these types of people........

This could be the fault of social media, it radicalises people because you start off reading one tweet, watching one video then afterwards guess what its algorithms 'recommend' you watch/read next?

RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:14 pm Hooray, problem solved. Russia have announced they’ve got the world’s first vaccine against Covid 19, we’re all saved . Right, now who’s first in line to get this new jab. ?

RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:14 pm Hooray, problem solved. Russia have announced they’ve got the world’s first vaccine against Covid 19, we’re all saved . Right, now who’s first in line to get this new jab. ?

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:33 pm
The number of infections in the UK is gradually increasing and deaths will almost inevitably rise a week or two later due to this. Whether the deaths from covid will once again exceed deaths from flu/pneumonia is an unknown at present. However, a trend showing an increase in infections cannot be good news can it.

faldO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:49 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:33 pm
The number of infections in the UK is gradually increasing and deaths will almost inevitably rise a week or two later due to this. Whether the deaths from covid will once again exceed deaths from flu/pneumonia is an unknown at present. However, a trend showing an increase in infections cannot be good news can it.

I don't think is necessarily follows that if the number of infections increases the number of deaths will increase, for a lot of different reasons. Eg more tests being done, different demographic being infected (more younger people infected but less likely to die), better treatments available, less severe strains of the virus than there were a few months ago, and others.

Similarly for the increase in infections, yes it's not good news in the sense that it means the virus is still around, but is it anything to become too concerned about if the risks are sensibly managed?

Auckland (pop 1.5M people) went back into lockdown on the basis of four people from the same family being tested positive. Is that a proportionate response? Perhaps for New Zealanders, but what would the reaction in England be if Birmingham were put into lockdown on the basis of 4 additional people testing positive? I don't think people would accept it.

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:23 pm

RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:14 pm Hooray, problem solved. Russia have announced they’ve got the world’s first vaccine against Covid 19, we’re all saved . Right, now who’s first in line to get this new jab. ?

George Galloway, Chris Williamson and Jeremy Corbyn

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:54 pm

faldO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:49 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:33 pm
The number of infections in the UK is gradually increasing and deaths will almost inevitably rise a week or two later due to this. Whether the deaths from covid will once again exceed deaths from flu/pneumonia is an unknown at present. However, a trend showing an increase in infections cannot be good news can it.

I don't think is necessarily follows that if the number of infections increases the number of deaths will increase, for a lot of different reasons. Eg more tests being done, different demographic being infected (more younger people infected but less likely to die), better treatments available, less severe strains of the virus than there were a few months ago, and others.

Similarly for the increase in infections, yes it's not good news in the sense that it means the virus is still around, but is it anything to become too concerned about if the risks are sensibly managed?

Auckland (pop 1.5M people) went back into lockdown on the basis of four people from the same family being tested positive. Is that a proportionate response? Perhaps for New Zealanders, but what would the reaction in England be if Birmingham were put into lockdown on the basis of 4 additional people testing positive? I don't think people would accept it.

Just look at the stats from the US where the infected rate was going up until very recently. The death toll increase was lagging by a week or two but it certainly spiked corresponding to the increased infection numbers. I think there will be an increase in deaths following increased infections based on this evidence. Of course, I'd love to be proved wrong.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:57 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:23 pm

RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:14 pm Hooray, problem solved. Russia have announced they’ve got the world’s first vaccine against Covid 19, we’re all saved . Right, now who’s first in line to get this new jab. ?

George Galloway, Chris Williamson and Jeremy Corbyn

Nope. That honour has to go to our glorious leader. He, and his ministers, should lead the people by example. They've earned this privilege.

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:57 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:54 pm

faldO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:49 pm

I don't think is necessarily follows that if the number of infections increases the number of deaths will increase, for a lot of different reasons. Eg more tests being done, different demographic being infected (more younger people infected but less likely to die), better treatments available, less severe strains of the virus than there were a few months ago, and others.

Similarly for the increase in infections, yes it's not good news in the sense that it means the virus is still around, but is it anything to become too concerned about if the risks are sensibly managed?

Auckland (pop 1.5M people) went back into lockdown on the basis of four people from the same family being tested positive. Is that a proportionate response? Perhaps for New Zealanders, but what would the reaction in England be if Birmingham were put into lockdown on the basis of 4 additional people testing positive? I don't think people would accept it.

Just look at the stats from the US where the infected rate was going up until very recently. The death toll increase was lagging by a week or two but it certainly spiked corresponding to the increased infection numbers. I think there will be an increase in deaths following increased infections based on this evidence. Of course, I'd love to be proved wrong.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Different country with different demographics, public health conditions and different unlocking policies

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:58 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:57 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:23 pm

George Galloway, Chris Williamson and Jeremy Corbyn

Nope. That honour has to go to our glorious leader. He, and his ministers, should lead the people by example. They've earned this privilege.

We've got our own in the pipeline

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:03 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:57 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:54 pm

Just look at the stats from the US where the infected rate was going up until very recently. The death toll increase was lagging by a week or two but it certainly spiked corresponding to the increased infection numbers. I think there will be an increase in deaths following increased infections based on this evidence. Of course, I'd love to be proved wrong.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Different country with different demographics, public health conditions and different unlocking policies

Really? You astound me! So, is there nothing to be worried about in the UK, given that we have a rising infection rate?

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:11 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:58 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:57 pm

Nope. That honour has to go to our glorious leader. He, and his ministers, should lead the people by example. They've earned this privilege.

0We've got our own in the pipeline

Great. They can still stick the first batch into Boris and the goons in the Cabinet first. Nobody would miss them if it went tits up. I've seen "I am Legend"

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:19 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:11 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:58 pm

0We've got our own in the pipeline

Great. They can still stick the first batch into Boris and the goons in the Cabinet first. Nobody would miss them if it went tits up. I've seen "I am Legend"

Except the "first batch" was administered in April

Are you an anti Vaxxer?

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:57 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:19 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:11 pm

Great. They can still stick the first batch into Boris and the goons in the Cabinet first. Nobody would miss them if it went tits up. I've seen "I am Legend"

Except the "first batch" was administered in April

Are you an anti Vaxxer?

Maybe it was administered in April but as you well know it's far from ready to be generally available/tested/approved etc etc.

Anti - vaxxer? Far from it. It's the only hope we have of seeing the back of this. But I'd still like Boris & chums to go first thanks.

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:58 am Bungling privateers should be stripped of billions of pounds in taxpayers' cash that they were given to operate the government's failed "test and track" scheme, the Unite union is demanding.

The scheme had cost £10 billion by last month and that figure is still rising, according to government figures.

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article ... ack-scheme

This is inexcusable mismanagement of both process and public finance; caused completely by a clueless, incompetent Tory Government.

Wonder if the wider MSM will be covering this farce as a headline today? Oh no, silly me. There's a rubber dinghy floating across the English Channel. That's far more important.

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:36 pm From Hugh Pym at the BBC:-

"For the week of 18-24 July, excluding deaths that took place more than 28 days after a positive test (the new policy) reduces the English death count by 75%: from 442 deaths to 111."

5000 deaths overall to be redefined as non Covid deaths after the PHE finally adopt the same system as other countries and acknowledge that not everyone who has had it dies from Covid.

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:29 pm

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:36 pm From Hugh Pym at the BBC:-

"For the week of 18-24 July, excluding deaths that took place more than 28 days after a positive test (the new policy) reduces the English death count by 75%: from 442 deaths to 111."

5000 deaths overall to be redefined as non Covid deaths after the PHE finally adopt the same system as other countries and acknowledge that not everyone who has had it dies from Covid.

It was up over 50,000 at one point.
Quick counting change dropped it back to 41k
Now its at 45k+ its been dropped again.

Masterful manipulations .

Dohnut wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:22 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:29 pm

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:36 pm From Hugh Pym at the BBC:-

"For the week of 18-24 July, excluding deaths that took place more than 28 days after a positive test (the new policy) reduces the English death count by 75%: from 442 deaths to 111."

5000 deaths overall to be redefined as non Covid deaths after the PHE finally adopt the same system as other countries and acknowledge that not everyone who has had it dies from Covid.

It was up over 50,000 at one point.
Quick counting change dropped it back to 41k
Now its at 45k+ its been dropped again.

Masterful manipulations .

Numbers are so open to jiggery-pokery. Trumps presentation of US numbers is a case in point, very creative. Since the start of this Ive been looking at numbers around the world and picking up what meagre snippets I could to see how the U.K. compares with other countries. Like this latest “adjustment” which brings us into line with France, for example. But we are way different to Belgium, who overstate. Countries have different views on what to include and exclude. Maybe some don’t even have the ability to put figures together or even adjust for international propaganda reasons. Even excess deaths over and above seasonal averages don’t really tell a true story.

Whilst numbers have merit there are so many variables genuine comparison is very difficult. They have use showing rate of change. But only then when collecting Methods are consistent.

People’s views on Government performances Worldwide, where stories have emerged, also ranges dramatically and reflect political views to some degree rather than objective view on performance. Covid-19 in a feck-up of global proportions. I wonder if we will even get to the bottom of what went wrong, why and action needed for the future.

Do I believe having a Labour, coalition or Tory Government would have made any difference. Not really.