Yeah, sure Max. I'll just go through a 2.5K word essay in my lunch break, shall I?
Chillax man. Did I say drop everything and do it? No I flipin' well didn't.
You are clearly under time pressure trying to juggle your roles as a top level bureaucrat, the country's premier Sinologist and now Ukranianologist. It's not for me to say, but as a retired Senior Manager in the private sector, a to do list and a system of prioritising the tasks according to their relative importance might help. I therefore expect a full reply by 4.30pm.
Your reply should avoid the vulgar misrepresentation of Mr Chomsky's thoughts that has characterised yours and Dobolina's recent bletherings. Also a written apology to the Big Man would also be appropriate.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:21 pm
by Dunners
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:06 pm
Chillax man. Did I say drop everything and do it? No I flipin' well didn't.... I therefore expect a full reply by 4.30pm.
I've just scanned through it. He's basically recommending Minsk 2. I had already commented on that, but put it on the Tory Watch thread instead:
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:56 am
Macron let things slip earlier in the week with his Finlandization comment.
Peace, for now, can probably be secured by acceptance of the Minsk 2 agreement. That means the federalisation of Ukraine with Russian proxies being able to veto any foreign policy they disagree with. The US is happy for that as it means they no longer have the Ruskies distracting them from their Indo-pacific concerns. Germany and France are also happy with that as it means they don't have to deal with a European security crisis at a time when they're ill-prepared.
It's just that Ukraine may feel differently. The President, should he accept Minsk 2, would effectively be ending Ukraine's sovereignty. And, even if he felt that this was the least-worst option available to him, it's not clear how or even if he can implement it. There's a good chance he'll end up swinging from a lamppost should he try, especially now that they been training thousands of armed Ukrainians in the civilian defence force.
It seems that Russia has foreseen this situation, and is calculating that Minsk 2 is just not probable, even if everyone agrees to it. Russia then has to factor in some other calculations, especially its dire demographic trends. In just eight years it's estimated that the Russian population will have aged to such a degree that it will only be able to muster 50% of a military force compared to now. For the Russians, if military action is to be an option, it's now or never.
I remain unconvinced that Minsk 2 is a permanent solution, and I'm also sceptical of the practicalities of it being implemented now. It may just be that its moment has passed. I really hope I'm wrong, as I too cannot see any other diplomatic option that will avoid a catastrophic war.
Chomsky will be pleased to know that I agree with his assessment of post-Soviet evolution of NATO and US foreign "zombie" policy. George H.W. Bush, to his credit, did try and make this debate part of his platform for re-election in 1992, but the US voters weren't in the mood so voted Clinton in instead. And under Clinton things just went nuts, such as pushing for Hungary to join at a time when it didn't even share a border with another NATO member.
Since that 1992 election, the US electorate has become increasingly disinterested in foreign policy to the extent that in the last two elections there was not a single candidate advocating for a serious discussion about it. It took Trump, of all people, to call it for what it is, and frame it in economic terms. A lack of democratic sunlight has played a part in allowing policy to evolve in ways it may otherwise not have, including R2P, the broadening definitions of NATOs "area of jurisdiction" and even the organisation's justification for existence.
But, seen through Chomsky's eyes, the eastward expansion of NATO is presented as problematic. However, those states that did join post 1992 hardly did so under duress. Offered the option they jumped at the chance, as was their sovereign right to do so. And they've told us repeatedly why; it's because they perceive Russia as the bigger threat. And, if you're in the NATO club, it's been a good deal. Countries have been able to invest more into other things as a result of relatively reduced defence budgets. The Germans are arguably the biggest beneficiaries of the economic advantages of being a NATO member, and they bloody lost the last war.
I understand that from Russia's perspective things may not seem so rosy. But, as I've said before, NATO unity is only really a threat if it stops you from projecting your power instead. Maybe if Russia had focused on projecting soft power instead, it may have found that its neighbouring states were less scared and therefore less inclined to join NATO in the first place.
Instead, I like to imagine what Europe would be like without NATO. Would it be a better or worse place than today? Is the life experienced by all of us better or worse because of NATO's existence? Obviously it's impossible for any of us to know for sure, but we can take a good guess by looking at history. And that suggests that the past 70-ish years have been the best time to be a European.
So, for all its many flaws, and in an imperfect world, I'm satisfied that we're part of NATO. But I'm no fan of it. What I'm a fan of is any global order that can best ensure the health and prosperity of as many people as possible. As soon as a better and practicable idea comes along then NATO can do one.
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:06 pm
Chillax man. Did I say drop everything and do it? No I flipin' well didn't.... I therefore expect a full reply by 4.30pm.
I've just scanned through it. He's basically recommending Minsk 2. I had already commented on that, but put it on the Tory Watch thread instead:
Dunners wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:56 am
Macron let things slip earlier in the week with his Finlandization comment.
Peace, for now, can probably be secured by acceptance of the Minsk 2 agreement. That means the federalisation of Ukraine with Russian proxies being able to veto any foreign policy they disagree with. The US is happy for that as it means they no longer have the Ruskies distracting them from their Indo-pacific concerns. Germany and France are also happy with that as it means they don't have to deal with a European security crisis at a time when they're ill-prepared.
It's just that Ukraine may feel differently. The President, should he accept Minsk 2, would effectively be ending Ukraine's sovereignty. And, even if he felt that this was the least-worst option available to him, it's not clear how or even if he can implement it. There's a good chance he'll end up swinging from a lamppost should he try, especially now that they been training thousands of armed Ukrainians in the civilian defence force.
It seems that Russia has foreseen this situation, and is calculating that Minsk 2 is just not probable, even if everyone agrees to it. Russia then has to factor in some other calculations, especially its dire demographic trends. In just eight years it's estimated that the Russian population will have aged to such a degree that it will only be able to muster 50% of a military force compared to now. For the Russians, if military action is to be an option, it's now or never.
I remain unconvinced that Minsk 2 is a permanent solution, and I'm also sceptical of the practicalities of it being implemented now. It may just be that its moment has passed. I really hope I'm wrong, as I too cannot see any other diplomatic option that will avoid a catastrophic war.
Chomsky will be pleased to know that I agree with his assessment of post-Soviet evolution of NATO and US foreign "zombie" policy. George H.W. Bush, to his credit, did try and make this debate part of his platform for re-election in 1992, but the US voters weren't in the mood so voted Clinton in instead. And under Clinton things just went nuts, such as pushing for Hungary to join at a time when it didn't even share a border with another NATO member.
Since that 1992 election, the US electorate has become increasingly disinterested in foreign policy to the extent that in the last two elections there was not a single candidate advocating for a serious discussion about it. It took Trump, of all people, to call it for what it is, and frame it in economic terms. A lack of democratic sunlight has played a part in allowing policy to evolve in ways it may otherwise not have, including R2P, the broadening definitions of NATOs "area of jurisdiction" and even the organisation's justification for existence.
But, seen through Chomsky's eyes, the eastward expansion of NATO is presented as problematic. However, those states that did join post 1992 hardly did so under duress. Offered the option they jumped at the chance, as was their sovereign right to do so. And they've told us repeatedly why; it's because they perceive Russia as the bigger threat. And, if you're in the NATO club, it's been a good deal. Countries have been able to invest more into other things as a result of relatively reduced defence budgets. The Germans are arguably the biggest beneficiaries of the economic advantages of being a NATO member, and they bloody lost the last war.
I understand that from Russia's perspective things may not seem so rosy. But, as I've said before, NATO unity is only really a threat if it stops you from projecting your power instead. Maybe if Russia had focused on projecting soft power instead, it may have found that its neighbouring states were less scared and therefore less inclined to join NATO in the first place.
Instead, I like to imagine what Europe would be like without NATO. Would it be a better or worse place than today? Is the life experienced by all of us better or worse because of NATO's existence? Obviously it's impossible for any of us to know for sure, but we can take a good guess by looking at history. And that suggests that the past 70-ish years have been the best time to be a European.
So, for all its many flaws, and in an imperfect world, I'm satisfied that we're part of NATO. But I'm no fan of it. What I'm a fan of is any global order that can best ensure the health and prosperity of as many people as possible. As soon as a better and practicable idea comes along then NATO can do one.
No seriously. Putin is holding an open mike session right now with his top ministers and military chiefs, and it's being simultaneously broadcast on every Russian channel. They're setting out the basis for invasion, including that Ukraine can supposedly obtain nuclear weapons imminently. It's surreal, but looks like it's happening.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:58 pm
by Long slender neck
Non existent Weapons of mass destruction? Where'd he get that idea from?
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:32 pm
by StockholmO
It’s all going to plan.
Disinformation
Fake News
Cyber Attacks
Next will be swarms of drone attacks. Welcome back to the Cold War.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:35 pm
by Dunners
This is something else. I'm paraphrasing here, but the gist of it is:
Shoigu: Ukraine is clearly taking its time to gather strength, the longer we wait the worse it will be.
Lavrov: Ukraine has committed genocide of Russians and is intent on attacking the Slavic Russian world. Keeps refering to Ukraine regaining nuclear weapons. We need to send a strong message.
Putin: We're at a dead end. He's getting every minister to go on record in support recognising new separatist states and military intervention. "I will make a decision today"!
This has all just happened on the telly.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:45 pm
by Currywurst and Chips
Nice of Ukraine to wait for the Olympic closing ceremony before starting their new top secret WMD programme
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:58 pm
by Dunners
Blinken called out how things would unfold at the UNSC three days ago. Having just watched the Putin panto special, Blinken's speech is suddenly quite chilling.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:02 pm
by StockholmO
I do hope all you IT wiz kids are ready for the waves of cyber attacks Putin will also launch at the U.K. I hate to think what the consequences would be if this board went down.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:05 pm
by Dunners
Everyone may want to make sure that have enough cash on them to get by for a few days.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:19 pm
by Dunners
Just Putin publically humiliating one minister who appeared to be reluctant to fully endorse recognition.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:20 pm
by ComeOnYouOs
StockholmO wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:02 pm
I do hope all you IT wiz kids are ready for the waves of cyber attacks Putin will also launch at the U.K. I hate to think what the consequences would be if this board went down.
Well, for a start, we wouldn't have to listen to all the crap you put on here
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:30 pm
by Max B Gold
Dunners wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:05 pm
Everyone may want to make sure that have enough cash on them to get by for a few days.
Oh FFS! I'm off to Inverary and Oban this week on our annual gastronomic tour and I just banked the weeks takings.
The upside is that I will be further away from the nuclear targets on the Clyde.
Dunners wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:05 pm
Everyone may want to make sure that have enough cash on them to get by for a few days.
Oh FFS! I'm off to Inverary and Oban this week on our annual gastronomic tour and I just banked the weeks takings.
The upside is that I will be further away from the nuclear targets on the Clyde.
I better come along, just so I can keep you updated on events. Where you eating?
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:09 pm
by Max B Gold
Loch Fyne Hotel & Spa, Loch Fyne Oyster Bar, Samphire Restaurant, Etive Restaurant and then curry on Friday night. Various snecks in between probably including pickled onion monster munch.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:22 pm
by Dunners
Excellent. I'll see you there. I promise not to take the micky with my drinks and cane your wallet too hard.
StockholmO wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:02 pm
I do hope all you IT wiz kids are ready for the waves of cyber attacks Putin will also launch at the U.K. I hate to think what the consequences would be if this board went down.
Well, for a start, we wouldn't have to listen to all the crap you put on here
I knew it wouldn’t take long before one of the racists on here would bite.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:46 pm
by StillSpike
Dunners wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:05 pm
Everyone may want to make sure that have enough cash on them to get by for a few days.
I asked Mrs Spike to get £300 out the wall on her way home this evening. When she got in with the cash I told her why and she gave me one of her pitying looks and told me I was being over-dramatic. I blamed it on the meds.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:46 pm
by Max B Gold
Apparently the war is in hold for now or is the recognition of the contested territories the 1st step in a false flag operation?
Cannae wait for Dunners to let us know what the hell is going on inside the mind of a maniac.
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:49 pm
by The Mindsweep
Putin has made his move. The West will um and arr and in a few weeks Russian 'peacekeepers" will move into the territories and just like the Crimea, Putin wins again.
Are you watching China? Taiwan is yours for the taking.
Dunners wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:05 pm
Everyone may want to make sure that have enough cash on them to get by for a few days.
I asked Mrs Spike to get £300 out the wall on her way home this evening. When she got in with the cash I told her why and she gave me one of her pitying looks and told me I was being over-dramatic. I blamed it on the meds.
"Well dear, there's this bloke on the Leyton Orient Message Board who said...."
Re: Russia / Ukraine Watch
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:01 pm
by Dunners
The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:49 pm
Putin has made his move. The West will um and arr and in a few weeks Russian 'peacekeepers" will move into the territories and just like the Crimea, Putin wins again.
Are you watching China? Taiwan is yours for the taking.
The more pertinent question may be; is Taiwan watching?
And you can bet they are. If they do not have confidence that the US would fully support them, they may just decide that their best course of action is to voluntarily pivot towards China. Xi is loving this, as he may get what he wants without lifting a finger.
