Independent Leyton Orient Forum

My guess is Sunak is PM by end of November. I think it’s impossible for there to not be a general election within six months.
Can see the tories cutting their losses and calling an election and starting the rebuild after a comprehensive Labour win

Think it’s also feasible that the election is called by Truss, so she can take the hit of the defeat

Truss will need to be ousted by senior party figures, she won't go of her own accord. Sunak is not trusted by a majority of Tory MPs after appearing to stab Boris in the back in the lead up to his departure. Incredibly the most popular candidate to take over as PM for the next two years is Boris.

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:10 pm If she insists on staying she better call a GE, which might give her 6 weeks. Instead of doing photo shoots to get her image right, maybe she should have been swatting up on economic policy.

Not a chance of swatting , to busy taking selfies .

This is brilliant

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:23 pm Truss will need to be ousted by senior party figures, she won't go of her own accord. Sunak is not trusted by a majority of Tory MPs after appearing to stab Boris in the back in the lead up to his departure. Incredibly the most popular candidate to take over as PM for the next two years is Boris.

Maybe but at least Sunak isn’t fiscally illiterate. He told Liz Truss to her face during the hustings what would happen if she went through with her plans . She totally ignored him and now we’ve been left with this car crash of a budget.

In my opinion the Tories have little option but to precipitate a General Election. IE when Labour forces a vote of no confidence, Tory MPs vote for it. The Party is so fragmented, there is little chance they can ever turn this around. Truss will have a load more banana skins to slide on. Let her take things too far & they never, ever will recover. They need to be pragmatic. Loose an Election & try & regroup. They will have to come up with a better method of electing a leader, for starters. This won't be doing Labour any favours, as they have badly damaged the Economy and tax rises are the obvious solution. Plus they also have to deal with the Jocks ( maybe ) if the Nats do well.

Why would the the most calculating and successful political party in the Western World vote for an election when they're circa 30 points behind in the polls?

Sausage & chips:- I believe I had already answered your question!

The Party is so fragmented, there is little chance they can ever turn this around. Truss will have a load more banana skins to slide on. Let her take things too far & they never, ever will recover. They need to be pragmatic. Loose an Election & try & regroup

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:21 pm Why would the the most calculating and successful political party in the Western World vote for an election when they're circa 30 points behind in the polls?

Because in the short term they are unlikely to turn the situation around, so they can choose between two years of hanging on for dear life and potential for further damage to the brand, or they can cut their losses on the current shower of s***, clear the decks, and present themselves of having rebooted, and aim for power in 2028 rather than hanging on then aiming for 2030?

Fried fox - Whilst they're fragmented the one thing that unites them and all politicians is self-preservation

CEB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:28 pm

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:21 pm Why would the the most calculating and successful political party in the Western World vote for an election when they're circa 30 points behind in the polls?

Because in the short term they are unlikely to turn the situation around, so they can choose between two years of hanging on for dear life and potential for further damage to the brand, or they can cut their losses on the current shower of s***, clear the decks, and present themselves of having rebooted, and aim for power in 2028 rather than hanging on then aiming for 2030?

Except there's no precedent for taking a tactical loss with the Tories, 1992 for example.

You're also working off the assumption that Tory MPs are generous folk who put the long-term interests of the party ahead of self-preservation and short term interest

There may be little chance they can turn this around, but they have more chance if they play for time as opposed to calling a GE now. A change of PM will see some resurgence in the polls and, even if they are defeated in the next GE, they'll certainly retain more seats than they would if it was called today. The smart move for them is to limp on, although that doesn't take into account the economic turmoil that is all but inevitable now.

However, even some Tory MPs are uncomfortable with an internal coronation of a new PM.

Only Tories who I can see voting for an election now unless the polls narrow are those in ultra safe seats in Oxbridge-Upon-Sleaze type seats.

Might be enough, probably not though

I don’t think they could get away with another PM without calling an election

Ben Howlett former MP for Bath has just said in an Interview "moves are being made to remove her , 1922 comm' are preparing rule changes & she wont be in power on the 5th November " . Probably be a "caretaker pm until they lose the next election " . could be gone as early as next week

Truss and the old chancellor have capped engery unit prices in line with an average cost of £2,500. They will borrow to cover the providers so they still get the market rate and not affect their profits.

However, its only now that people are seeing their increased direct debits and remember they are double what they were last year. This is before mortgages and rents, via buy to let mortgages, go up at least 25%. There is load more pain with prices and business unable to survive. And as for pensions....

This isn't getting better anytime soon so having an election, which they will lose, will enable to Tories to start rebuilding itself now rather than staying in power which will be so painful.

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:21 pm Why would the the most calculating and successful political party in the Western World vote for an election when they're circa 30 points behind in the polls?

Absolutely! They are obviously total professionals and have excellent judgement in all they do.

CEB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:36 pm I don’t think they could get away with another PM without calling an election

Still got a 70 odd seat majority - they'll turf her out next week, slip Rishi / Penny into No 10 and ride it out. 2 years is a long time in politics.

The whole exercise will be designed to minimise the damage at the next election, and then spend 5 years reinventing themselves as the fiscally sound / strong on immigration party. With the Mail / Telegraph / Express kicking Starmer to f*** over the next 5 years and throw in a generally thick enough electorate happy to lap it up, they'll be back in power for 2030.

Nah I think you’re glossing over that they will not be allowed to just push it through like that. The next appointment will need to have something to give it credibility, something to acknowledge how badly wrong it went. Giving it to those who were less popular than the one who won a month ago will not wash, without going to the polls.

Maybe Gove was playing 3D chess

BoniO wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 5:03 pm

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:21 pm Why would the the most calculating and successful political party in the Western World vote for an election when they're circa 30 points behind in the polls?

Absolutely! They are obviously total professionals and have excellent judgement in all they do.

I'm not sure what point you're failing to make

Some serious money going on Sunak to be next PM. Touching evens now, Starmer is out to 4/1

He hasn't said a word. He will be in soon

It wouldn’t surprise me if they called an election, handing the sh*t show over to Labour, knowing there’s nothing they can do to stop it getting worse. Then they spend 5 years unable to actually do anything because of the economy and then 12 more years of tories

Harold Wilson said in the mid-60s that "a week is a long time in politics" - nowadays it seems like 24 hours is a long time in politics.