Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:36 pm**

But I agreed things would be different if Boris wasn't in charge? I said you were unrealistic to suggest or think or allure to that it might not be here. It's in New Zealand too.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:38 pm**

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:21 pm

Unrealistic......really?

Would things be different if we had the greatest leader in the World? Let's look at one and find out.

Two words in reply:
Jacinda Ardern

So far. From my post above:

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:54 pm Also, what's happening in Spain isn't a 'second wave'. It's still the first wave, just bouncing back a bit after suppression tactics are withdrawn. This first wave could go on for a long time yet. And this will cause problems for countries like Taiwan and New Zealand. Their strategy only works if the pandemic is relatively short-lived. If it's prolonged over multiple seasons, like what Covid-19 is shaping up to be, then that strategy may yet backfire on them.

Time may prove that her handling of this was brilliant, I'm not denying that. But it really is too early to tell who has got this right and who hasn't. Such a conclusion can only really be reached when we've been able to report on the accumulative above-average death rate from every country after a suitable period of time (i.e. 18 months, if not longer).

You also have to make some allowances for the geographical, demographic and economic differences between countries, as like-for-like comparisons will not help anyone. What's most important is that we're able to draw reasonable conclusions so that we're better prepared for the next pandemic. Because their will be one.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:20 pm**

It seems the young are a little susceptible after all
Take care kids.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:49 pm**

No, they're just spreading it. Stay safe olds.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:09 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:38 pm You also have to make some allowances for the geographical, demographic and economic differences between countries, as like-for-like comparisons will not help anyone. What's most important is that we're able to draw reasonable conclusions.

Ahhhh, the old New Zealand demographic is different chestnut again.

Let's draw some reasonable comparisons then, shall we?

This is from a post that I contributed a week ago (for Thor's benefit, who was spouting the same). However, I've updated the numbers since:

Let's indeed do some comparisons and you can then consider the subsequent percentages, like for like:

London has a population density of 1,510 people per Sq. Km.
Auckland has a population density of 1,210 people per Sq. Km.
Christchurch has a popularion density of 1,009 people per Sq. Km.

London has had 34,930 confirmed cases; with 6,136 deaths.
Auckland has had 178 confirmed cases; 178 recovered - 0 deaths.
Christchurch has had 164 confirmed cases; 152 recovered with 12 deaths.

So rather than apportion the level of UK deaths as a result of the demographics, population density, etc., can't you honestly see that it is THE PROCESS, adopted by both Governments, that has caused such a disparity?

This lying, incompetent Tory Government has blood on its' hands. It's as simple as that.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:37 pm**

You're missing the point because as usual you're too busy attacking the government.

Normal life cannot resume in any country until there is a vaccine.

If China had kept a lid on it maybe much of the world could have been spared, but the genie is out of the bottle now.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:26 pm**

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:37 pm You're missing the point because as usual you're too busy attacking the government.

Normal life cannot resume in any country until there is a vaccine.

I don't think that I'm missing the point - anything but actually. Those not apportioning significant blame upon Johnson and his Circus of

are, quite clearly, the ones missing the point.

As for normal life not resuming in any Country. Really?

It depends upon your definition of 'normal life' but apart from entry restrictions, New Zealand is indeed back to normal.

Taiwan (somewhat closer to China than the UK is) - notwithstanding border restrictions, is back to normal.

Vietnam (again, somewhat closer to China than the UK is) - again, not withstanding border restrictions, is back to normal.

Within the EU, it's the same situation in Estonia and Norway - both are back to normal.

Take a look back at the processes that these Countries have adopted. I'm sure that the common denominators will become only too apparent.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:41 pm**

We all know it's been handled terribly, you don't have to keep going on about it.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Covid cannot be defeated without a vaccine. So months down the line there could very well be an outbreak in one of the countries you mentioned. This is what I mean about it going on.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:51 pm**

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:26 pm
It depends upon your definition of 'normal life' but apart from entry restrictions, New Zealand is indeed back to normal.

Post-Covid New Zealand tackles a new threat – anxiety over an uncertain future
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ain-future

‘We were basically cocooned in our bubble of safety’

"At the same time, the country’s biggest export earner, tourism, is in tatters and the country faces a deep recession, which has created “a double layer of uncertainty”

There's no doubt that in terms of keeping the number of deaths and infections low NZ did a good job but to claim the country is "back to normal" is wrong.

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:06 pm**

faldO wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:51 pm
NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:26 pm
It depends upon your definition of 'normal life' but apart from entry restrictions, New Zealand is indeed back to normal.

Post-Covid New Zealand tackles a new threat – anxiety over an uncertain future
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ain-future

‘We were basically cocooned in our bubble of safety’

"At the same time, the country’s biggest export earner, tourism, is in tatters and the country faces a deep recession, which has created “a double layer of uncertainty”

There's no doubt that in terms of keeping the number of deaths and infections low NZ did a good job but to claim the country is "back to normal" is wrong.

Yep - fair response.

As New Zealand was the busiest destination that I dealt with before redundancy, I know only too well that Tourism is indeed a major industry for them. Having such strict border controls has obviously caused a reduction in visitors; but what's more important than personal health at the end of the day.

Tourism reduction and border controls aside though, New Zealand is indeed back to normal for the vast majority of Kiwis. I believe it's around 9% of their working population who work in tourism-related industries.

A lot of those that I have known and worked with over the years are also what we'd perhaps term 'the younger set'. Similar to Aussie youngsters, they're pretty mobile; many having already travelled/back-packed and worked across Australia, Asia and Europe. I don't think they'd be worried about looking further afield for employment or new adventures.

By the way, good to see you referring to The Guardian for info!

Posted: **Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:32 pm**

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:41 pm We all know it's been handled terribly, you don't have to keep going on about it.

Some don’t, some think the government are doing the best they can.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:10 am**

We had the most inept bunch of loons running the country at the very worst possible time.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:19 am**

kokomO wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:10 am We had the most inept bunch of loons running the country at the very worst possible time.

Yeah but no need to go on and on about it.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:11 am**

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:19 am
kokomO wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:10 am We had the most inept bunch of loons running the country at the very worst possible time.
Yeah but no need to go on and on about it.

Yes there is !

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:29 am**

We should be eternally grateful for what these inept loons have done for us.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:20 am**

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:09 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:38 pm You also have to make some allowances for the geographical, demographic and economic differences between countries, as like-for-like comparisons will not help anyone. What's most important is that we're able to draw reasonable conclusions.
Ahhhh, the old New Zealand demographic is different chestnut again.

Let's draw some reasonable comparisons then, shall we?

This is from a post that I contributed a week ago (for Thor's benefit, who was spouting the same). However, I've updated the numbers since:

Let's indeed do some comparisons and you can then consider the subsequent percentages, like for like:

London has a population density of 1,510 people per Sq. Km.
Auckland has a population density of 1,210 people per Sq. Km.
Christchurch has a popularion density of 1,009 people per Sq. Km.

London has had 34,930 confirmed cases; with 6,136 deaths.
Auckland has had 178 confirmed cases; 178 recovered - 0 deaths.
Christchurch has had 164 confirmed cases; 152 recovered with 12 deaths.

So rather than apportion the level of UK deaths as a result of the demographics, population density, etc., can't you honestly see that it is THE PROCESS, adopted by both Governments, that has caused such a disparity?

This lying, incompetent Tory Government has blood on its' hands. It's as simple as that.

I'm not talking about population density and it's not just about recorded deaths as a direct result of Covid-19. Given the different ways countries have counted such deaths, it's difficult to draw meaningful like-for-like comparisons just yet. That's why we're going to have to wait for a much longer time, and then compare the overall excess death rates. That way we can not only factor in the number of people who have died from Covid-19, but also those who have died due to unintended consequences of the different strategies implemented by all countries.

However, what works for one country will not work for another. Geographical, demographic and economic differences do matter. For example, it would not be realistic to expect a country like Belgium to follow New Zealand's example. Sweden clearly felt that France's approach wasn't for them. And the Philippines decided not to follow Germany.

I'm not claiming that our handling of this has not been terrible - it has. I'm also not claiming that New Zealand's approach has not been better - it has. But only so far.

Imagine a year or two from now, and Covid is still going around (which is a distinct possibility). That will put New Zealand in a difficult position, as they'll not be able to keep their boarders closed forever without it having a much deeper and long lasting impact on their economy and the welfare of their citizens. They'll come under increasing pressure to open up, only then they'll have acquired zero resistance within their population while the rest of us will have moved on to some extent.

If I was a betting man, sure, right now I'd put money on the UK losing any eventual comparison with New Zealand. But we do need to keep an open mind as to what is the best strategy in the longer term. The final league table for this will be grim, and I suspect that we'll see a mixture of results which we can hopefully learn from so we're better prepared for the next pandemic.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:32 am**

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:20 am
NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:09 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:38 pm You also have to make some allowances for the geographical, demographic and economic differences between countries, as like-for-like comparisons will not help anyone. What's most important is that we're able to draw reasonable conclusions.
Ahhhh, the old New Zealand demographic is different chestnut again.

Let's draw some reasonable comparisons then, shall we?

This is from a post that I contributed a week ago (for Thor's benefit, who was spouting the same). However, I've updated the numbers since:

Let's indeed do some comparisons and you can then consider the subsequent percentages, like for like:

London has a population density of 1,510 people per Sq. Km.
Auckland has a population density of 1,210 people per Sq. Km.
Christchurch has a popularion density of 1,009 people per Sq. Km.

London has had 34,930 confirmed cases; with 6,136 deaths.
Auckland has had 178 confirmed cases; 178 recovered - 0 deaths.
Christchurch has had 164 confirmed cases; 152 recovered with 12 deaths.

So rather than apportion the level of UK deaths as a result of the demographics, population density, etc., can't you honestly see that it is THE PROCESS, adopted by both Governments, that has caused such a disparity?

This lying, incompetent Tory Government has blood on its' hands. It's as simple as that.
I'm not talking about population density and it's not just about recorded deaths as a direct result of Covid-19. Given the different ways countries have counted such deaths, it's difficult to draw meaningful like-for-like comparisons just yet. That's why we're going to have to wait for a much longer time, and then compare the overall excess death rates. That way we can not only factor in the number of people who have died from Covid-19, but also those who have died due to unintended consequences of the different strategies implemented by all countries.

However, what works for one country will not work for another. Geographical, demographic and economic differences do matter. For example, it would not be realistic to expect a country like Belgium to follow New Zealand's example. Sweden clearly felt that France's approach wasn't for them. And the Philippines decided not to follow Germany.

I'm not claiming that our handling of this has not been terrible - it has. I'm also not claiming that New Zealand's approach has not been better - it has. But only so far.

Imagine a year or two from now, and Covid is still going around (which is a distinct possibility). That will put New Zealand in a difficult position, as they'll not be able to keep their boarders closed forever without it having a much deeper and long lasting impact on their economy and the welfare of their citizens. They'll come under increasing pressure to open up, only then they'll have acquired zero resistance within their population while the rest of us will have moved on to some extent.

If I was a betting man, sure, right now I'd put money on the UK losing any eventual comparison with New Zealand. But we do need to keep an open mind as to what is the best strategy in the longer term. The final league table for this will be grim, and I suspect that we'll see a mixture of results which we can hopefully learn from so we're better prepared for the next pandemic.

How would it hurt New Zelands economy exactly ?

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:45 am**

Well, already their tourist sector is f*cked. However, it is a globalised, free-market economy that relies heavily on trade with China, the US, the EU and others outside of its immediate geographical neighbourhood. Closed boarders hurt trade. Nobody will be able to say how it will be hurt 'exactly', but it will clearly have an impact. And any impact will only get worse the longer this goes on.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:08 am**

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:45 am Well, already their tourist sector is f*cked. However, it is a globalised, free-market economy that relies heavily on trade with China, the US, the EU and others outside of its immediate geographical neighbourhood. Closed boarders hurt trade. Nobody will be able to say how it will be hurt 'exactly', but it will clearly have an impact. And any impact will only get worse the longer this goes on.

How will closed borders to tourists, overly effect the export and import of goods and services?

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:14 am**

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:45 am Well, already their tourist sector is f*cked. However, it is a globalised, free-market economy that relies heavily on trade with China, the US, the EU and others outside of its immediate geographical neighbourhood. Closed boarders hurt trade. Nobody will be able to say how it will be hurt 'exactly', but it will clearly have an impact. And any impact will only get worse the longer this goes on.

My niece works in the tourist industry in New Zeland
Shes busy as ever .
Most new zelanders who travel abroad are spending there money island hopping , north to south vice versa .
63 % of New Zelands trade is service sector .

P.S lockdown doesnt stop food export or
Certain vital trade for export.

If that was the case no ppe would have got into britain or any other country in the world who was short of it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_New_Zealand

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:23 am**

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:08 am
Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:45 am Well, already their tourist sector is f*cked. However, it is a globalised, free-market economy that relies heavily on trade with China, the US, the EU and others outside of its immediate geographical neighbourhood. Closed boarders hurt trade. Nobody will be able to say how it will be hurt 'exactly', but it will clearly have an impact. And any impact will only get worse the longer this goes on.
How will closed borders to tourists, overly effect the export and import of goods and services?

The boarders are closed to almost all travellers, not just tourists. If you don't think that will affect trade and services if maintained over a prolonged period of time, then fine. Maybe your right.

The point I'm making is that there's no way of anyone knowing how this will play out, so we can only really assess the advantages and disadvantages of different strategies (and this isn't just the UK and NZ we're talking about) after a sufficient period of time has passed.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:26 am**

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:14 am
Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:45 am Well, already their tourist sector is f*cked. However, it is a globalised, free-market economy that relies heavily on trade with China, the US, the EU and others outside of its immediate geographical neighbourhood. Closed boarders hurt trade. Nobody will be able to say how it will be hurt 'exactly', but it will clearly have an impact. And any impact will only get worse the longer this goes on.
My niece works in the tourist industry in New Zeland
Shes busy as ever .
Most new zelanders who travel abroad are spending there money island hopping , north to south vicw versa .
63 % of New Zelands trade is service sector .

P.S lockdown doesnt stop food export or
Certain vital trade for export.

If that was the case no ppe would have got into britain or any other country in the world who was short of it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_New_Zealand

We're not talking about lockdown. Our boarders were not closed to China. There were flights coming in daily during the height of the 'wave'.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:37 am**

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:23 am
NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:08 am
Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:45 am Well, already their tourist sector is f*cked. However, it is a globalised, free-market economy that relies heavily on trade with China, the US, the EU and others outside of its immediate geographical neighbourhood. Closed boarders hurt trade. Nobody will be able to say how it will be hurt 'exactly', but it will clearly have an impact. And any impact will only get worse the longer this goes on.
How will closed borders to tourists, overly effect the export and import of goods and services?
The boarders are closed to almost all travellers, not just tourists. If you don't think that will affect trade and services if maintained over a prolonged period of time, then fine. Maybe your right.

The point I'm making is that there's no way of anyone knowing how this will play out, so we can only really assess the advantages and disadvantages of different strategies (and this isn't just the UK and NZ we're talking about) after a sufficient period of time has passed.

Yes the boarders are closed to foreigners.

However the travel between South & North islands continue.
Some of the most breathtaking places on the planet are in New Zeland

As for trade New Zeland has survived for years by building there exports
They dont import a massive amount as it costs so much to do so.

Ill give you an example
Tobacco is 4 to 5 times the retail price over there in comparison
To here , so there are few smokers , it works pretty much across the board
with the rest of their imports to .
Thats why they always have a pretty healthy + in there gdp numbers.

If ever there was a country set up to survive a locked down world it is
New Zealand . Exactly because of the reasons people say we cant compare
them as they are so far away.

That is also why they take such care in there health services
Yes they have had difficult times , but they are forced to plan ahead.

The world can learn an awful lot from them.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:48 am**

You may be right. The point I'm making, which I'm struggling to understand why anyone would disagree with, is that; time will tell.

Posted: **Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:20 am**

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:48 am You may be right. The point I'm making, which I'm struggling to understand why anyone would disagree with, is that; time will tell.

Of course time will tell , but The U.K has the 3rd highest death rate
Which will probably drop to 4th behind India

So 3 of the biggest populations in the world then Britain which is on a par with
Germany France South Korea give or take 10 million .

Time will tell the U.Ks preperation & reaction to covid 19 was pretty dismal
especially under the leadership we have right now.

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