Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:57 am

The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:15 pm Oh dear, Pension Funds are doomed

Apparently the BoE is already privately briefing fund managers that this deadline may be flexible. Proper sh*tshow.

The markets will continue to punish. Mogg doing the rounds this morning say its not the government's fault........it f****** is

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:47 am Deadline for what?

The BoE intervention to end.

So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:08 am So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

F*ck knows, but a reversal of the "mini-budget" is increasingly looking like the only option left.

Also, and far be it for me to defend the gamblers, they're not really the villains of the piece here. They're just doing what they are supposed to do. This is a failure of governance and communication, from both the Treasury and the BoE. The pension funds also need a stern talking too, as they should not have been this vulnerable.

Maybe the gamblers shouldn't be able to do their gambling?

Maybe - I'm not disagreeing. But my point still stands.

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:08 am So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

Too late, markets reward confidence and punish incompetence. The more a change of government is likely the more the market will become less volatile.

As for your gamblers quote, firstly refer to Dunners, then understand that the biggest gamblers where Truss & Co who haven't even got a full hand.

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:12 am

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:08 am So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

F*ck knows, but a reversal of the "mini-budget" is increasingly looking like the only option left.

Also, and far be it for me to defend the gamblers, they're not really the villains of the piece here. They're just doing what they are supposed to do. This is a failure of governance and communication, from both the Treasury and the BoE. The pension funds also need a stern talking too, as they should not have been this vulnerable.

Where was the pensions regulator ?

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:48 am

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:12 am

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:08 am So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

F*ck knows, but a reversal of the "mini-budget" is increasingly looking like the only option left.

Also, and far be it for me to defend the gamblers, they're not really the villains of the piece here. They're just doing what they are supposed to do. This is a failure of governance and communication, from both the Treasury and the BoE. The pension funds also need a stern talking too, as they should not have been this vulnerable.

Where was the pensions regulator ?

Going by the average age of the crowd, I think they may have been stood around me at the Morrissey gig last night.

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:05 pm

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:48 am

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:12 am

F*ck knows, but a reversal of the "mini-budget" is increasingly looking like the only option left.

Also, and far be it for me to defend the gamblers, they're not really the villains of the piece here. They're just doing what they are supposed to do. This is a failure of governance and communication, from both the Treasury and the BoE. The pension funds also need a stern talking too, as they should not have been this vulnerable.

Where was the pensions regulator ?

Going by the average age of the crowd, I think they may have been stood around me at the Morrissey gig last night.

Doubt it. The regulators got the sense not to attend a neo-nazi rally

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:12 am

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:08 am So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

F*ck knows, but a reversal of the "mini-budget" is increasingly looking like the only option left.

Also, and far be it for me to defend the gamblers, they're not really the villains of the piece here. They're just doing what they are supposed to do. This is a failure of governance and communication, from both the Treasury and the BoE. The pension funds also need a stern talking too, as they should not have been this vulnerable.

Your view of being fair to the gamblers isn't mine. They know the impact of their actions. They need taking out and shooting.

Dont really understand all this financial gubbins, but if they didnt do whatever they're doing, wouldnt something bad happen?

Only 2 choices for Truss are A) Reverse mini budget or B) Massive spending cuts to public services to cover the £60B hole in the figures.

Amusingly at PMQ's she's confirmed she'll do neither. Yet to see if anyone has a 3rd option (spoiler - there isn't).

I reckon it'll be a U-Turn on the mini budget and throwing Kwasi under the bus. Option B won't get through the house meaning she'll have to resign.

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 1:18 pm Only 2 choices for Truss are A) Reverse mini budget or B) Massive spending cuts to public services to cover the £60B hole in the figures.

Amusingly at PMQ's she's confirmed she'll do neither. Yet to see if anyone has a 3rd option (spoiler - there isn't).

I reckon it'll be a U-Turn on the mini budget and throwing Kwasi under the bus. Option B won't get through the house meaning she'll have to resign.

During today's PMQs she tried to frame the energy price caps as the substantial part of the mini budget, the implication being that all the other stuff is just minor. That suggests that she's continuing to lay the groundwork for the u-turn, which she already started with her interview at the conference when she stated it was all Kwasi's idea.

Kwasi has not only already been thrown under the bus, but Truss is now reversing back over him for good measure.

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 1:31 pm

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 1:18 pm Only 2 choices for Truss are A) Reverse mini budget or B) Massive spending cuts to public services to cover the £60B hole in the figures.

Amusingly at PMQ's she's confirmed she'll do neither. Yet to see if anyone has a 3rd option (spoiler - there isn't).

I reckon it'll be a U-Turn on the mini budget and throwing Kwasi under the bus. Option B won't get through the house meaning she'll have to resign.

During today's PMQs she tried to frame the energy price caps as the substantial part of the mini budget, the implication being that all the other stuff is just minor. That suggests that she's continuing to lay the groundwork for the u-turn, which she already started with her interview at the conference when she stated it was all Kwasi's idea.

Kwasi has not only already been thrown under the bus, but Truss is now reversing back over him for good measure.

It'll only buy her a few more weeks. She's already a floating corpse.

Not seen it but isn’t framing the energy cap as the main thing done to blame it on the war?

TRUMP Plumbing wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 2:06 pm Not seen it but isn’t framing the energy cap as the main thing done to blame it on the war?

The reasoning put forward is that the need to even consider an energy price cap is because international prices are skyrocketing due to "Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine."

But in today's PMQs she did everything she could to try and reframe the mini budget as being about the energy price cap, and not the tax thing. That way, if/when she u-turns on the tax thing, she may have some grounds to try and claim that it's not that big a deal. That's the theory, anyway.

I reckon she'll throw Kwarteng under the bus fairly soon, even though it'll almost certainly mean her days are numbered too. Blah blah growth and vital help with gas prices, but Kwasi f*cked up the details so sadly has to go.

The real worry then is that she'll try and do a war with Russia to divert attention.

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:12 am

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:08 am So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

F*ck knows, but a reversal of the "mini-budget" is increasingly looking like the only option left.

Also, and far be it for me to defend the gamblers, they're not really the villains of the piece here. They're just doing what they are supposed to do. This is a failure of governance and communication, from both the Treasury and the BoE. The pension funds also need a stern talking too, as they should not have been this vulnerable.

Regarding the pension funds, isn't this out of their control as they're mandated to hold certain long bond positions to make them less risky? So in effect the government caused this by creating a massive margin call on them, knowing they'd have to sell their most liquid asset (gilts) into a falling market. If the treasury didn't know this, they should all be fired, as it's hardly an unexpected consequence. They should really have the same cash requirements as the banks, but then they probably won't return enough to pay for retirement

Adz wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:07 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:12 am

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:08 am So If they say "Ok - the unfunded tax cuts that were in the mini budget won't go ahead now" - will the gamblers stop doing whatever it is they're doing to impoverish the rest of us?

F*ck knows, but a reversal of the "mini-budget" is increasingly looking like the only option left.

Also, and far be it for me to defend the gamblers, they're not really the villains of the piece here. They're just doing what they are supposed to do. This is a failure of governance and communication, from both the Treasury and the BoE. The pension funds also need a stern talking too, as they should not have been this vulnerable.

Regarding the pension funds, isn't this out of their control as they're mandated to hold certain long bond positions to make them less risky? So in effect the government caused this by creating a massive margin call on them, knowing they'd have to sell their most liquid asset (gilts) into a falling market. If the treasury didn't know this, they should all be fired, as it's hardly an unexpected consequence. They should really have the same cash requirements as the banks, but then they probably won't return enough to pay for retirement

Possibly. The funds were certainly asleep at the wheel from a risk management front.

But I agree that the lions share of blame is with the Teasury, and Kwarteng must take responsibility for that. His first decision as chancellor to to fire Tom Scholar, who was the most senior official. His second was to decide to not let the OBR review his plans.

To do both of these before launching a fiscal event of this magnitude was in itself good reason for markets to react in a WTF kind of way. At best its gross incompetence. At worst it's treason. Hence why I'm going easier on the so-called gamblers as, while they can make for a convenient pantomine villain, I think their reaction has been totally understandable.

Its ridiculous that the OBR is even a choice for them. Where's the transparency!

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:55 pm I reckon she'll throw Kwarteng under the bus fairly soon, even though it'll almost certainly mean her days are numbered too. Blah blah growth and vital help with gas prices, but Kwasi f*cked up the details so sadly has to go.

The real worry then is that she'll try and do a war with Russia to divert attention.

A lot of this budget was her idea . She was told what would happen by Sunak during the hustings but she wouldn't listen .

The u-turn rumour mill is in full flow and the Gilt market is responding favourably.

Markets clearly not spooked by mini budget!

The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:22 pm The u-turn rumour mill is in full flow and the Gilt market is responding favourably.

Markets clearly not spooked by mini budget!

Lucky for us is there such a thing as markets being unspooked. You yotta love a market. Moody but ultimately likable.

PM to make a press conferance later. U Turn , Sacking Kwasi or both ?