Independent Leyton Orient Forum

You certainly wouldn't put it past him contriving some phony attack on his forces that he feels justified in responding to.

Putin has always presented the Russian people with the image of a tough guy hard man, who takes no sh1t, so unless the West acquiesces, he will not be able to climb down from his threat to invade Ukraine.
I dont think the West will climb down, so an attack on Ukraine looks inevitable IMO.
How far into Ukraine Putins troops will go, is anyones guess .

o-no wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:04 pm You certainly wouldn't put it past him contriving some phony attack on his forces that he feels justified in responding to.

The Russian foreign ministry said on Friday that a molotov cocktail had been thrown at the the country’s consulate in the Ukrainian city of Lviv and that it had formally protested about the attack, which it described as an act of terrorism.

The ministry summoned a Ukrainian official and demanded apologies from his country’s authorities.

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Fri Dec 24, 2021 8:33 pm

o-no wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:04 pm You certainly wouldn't put it past him contriving some phony attack on his forces that he feels justified in responding to.

The Russian foreign ministry said on Friday that a molotov cocktail had been thrown at the the country’s consulate in the Ukrainian city of Lviv and that it had formally protested about the attack, which it described as an act of terrorism.

The ministry summoned a Ukrainian official and demanded apologies from his country’s authorities.

You can't always stop terrorism.

US and Russian officials seem to be briefing that talks have failed, and a further invasion is now looking very likely. US is briefing allies to make contingency plans in case any conflict is not contained to Ukraine.

FFS, I'd hoped to go to St Petersburg this year.

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:39 pm US and Russian officials seem to be briefing that talks have failed, and a further invasion is now looking very likely. US is briefing allies to make contingency plans in case any conflict is not contained to Ukraine.

FFS, I'd hoped to go to St Petersburg this year.

Yet Russia have come out several times recently saying their mass buildup of forces near the Ukraine border is no cause for concern.

Oh look. Ukraine reporting massive cyber attack across government websites. Including it's foreign embassies.

Let's not rush to point fingers and escalate things

The Ukrainians should do the right thing and send details of these cyber attacks to Russia so they can check if they did it

o-no wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:04 pm You certainly wouldn't put it past him contriving some phony attack on his forces that he feels justified in responding to.

That is what was reported yesterday in the press.

It does raise the question of what the hell the West could/would do if Russia did invade (another) sovereign state. Putin knows that his oil/gas reserves are a major joker in his pack, but I wonder what total economic sanctions against Russia would do?all Russian asserts in the UK would be frozen which wouldn’t go down well with a lot of very wealthy Russians…

Stowaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:36 pm It does raise the question of what the hell the West could/would do if Russia did invade (another) sovereign state. Putin knows that his oil/gas reserves are a major joker in his pack, but I wonder what total economic sanctions against Russia would do?all Russian asserts in the UK would be frozen which wouldn’t go down well with a lot of very wealthy Russians…

Why would they need to invade? They have the capability to mount a cyber attack and use ransomware to coerce and control. Everyone knows that Russia is at the centre of worldwide cyber activity, both state sponsored and localised criminal elements who they facilitate. Look back to Estonia (state) in 2007 and recent attacks on Irish and German Health Centres (criminal). And of course the alleged US elections and Brexit vote stuff.

Stowaway wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:36 pm It does raise the question of what the hell the West could/would do if Russia did invade (another) sovereign state. Putin knows that his oil/gas reserves are a major joker in his pack, but I wonder what total economic sanctions against Russia would do?all Russian asserts in the UK would be frozen which wouldn’t go down well with a lot of very wealthy Russians…

If it comes to it, Ukraine will be left to the wolves.

The West can exert considerable pain on Russia. Whether its through further sanctions, exclusions from the Swift banking system, and seizing Russian assets. Putin knows this and isn't taking it lightly and, if a further invasion goes ahead, then I expect this will all happen. Irrespective of the amount of Russian money we've allowed into our economy, as the Huawei saga demonstrated, when the USA issues those orders even our privileged toffs will know to do as their told. And if we were to go toe to toe, Russia would be over-powered.

But the calculus is also about considering the future. Russia is thinking that Ukraine is only ever likely to become an increasing liability on its border. With a collapsing population (even worse than Russia's) it will become weaker and more enticed by the EU and NATO. And ten years from now, due to its collapsing population, Russia will be lucky to have half the armed forces it can currently muster. Therefore, all the sanctions and asset seizes may be considered as a price worth paying from a Russian perspective.

There's a lot of intel that a Russia invasion would not necessarily be about occupation. Even state collapse may be enough. Russia's window of opportunity to inflict this damage is rapidly diminishing. And they'll be keen to return their hardware and troops back to the east as they're also worried about the Chinese using this as an opportunity to go for a land grab.

Whatever happens this year or next, I think it's fair to say that 2021 was the year that Europe went from being a post-war society to a pre-war one.

Holy f*cking sh*t! The bloody Germans may be giving Russia the green light.

Green light for what?

It appears* that Germany are refusing airspace access for UK military flights bringing any support and equipment to Ukraine. Two NATO allies. Some parts of the new government are also signalling that they will not reject Russia from the swift banking system or participate in other sanctions should the invasion take place.

If this is true it has serious implications for the EU and NATO, and is making their Eastern European and Baltic State neighbours very nervous. And it sends out a signal to Putin that the Western alliance is not as steadfast as it is supposed to be.

*No official confirmation yet, but this is indicated by Flightradar24 and several reputable foreign and UK journalists are beginning to brief on it. Even neither government denying this by the end of today will be a massive deal.

Another slow hand clap for Germany, who think they rule Europe. They must be bricking it over the gas.

Dunners wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:30 am It appears* that Germany are refusing airspace access for UK military flights bringing any support and equipment to Ukraine. Two NATO allies. Some parts of the new government are also signalling that they will not reject Russia from the swift banking system or participate in other sanctions should the invasion take place.

If this is true it has serious implications for the EU and NATO, and is making their Eastern European and Baltic State neighbours very nervous. And it sends out a signal to Putin that the Western alliance is not as steadfast as it is supposed to be.

*No official confirmation yet, but this is indicated by Flightradar24 and several reputable foreign and UK journalists are beginning to brief on it. Even neither government denying this by the end of today will be a massive deal.

Not sure but maybe the Ruskies have already picked up on the thawing of relations over the
last 6 years?

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:46 am Another slow hand clap for Germany, who think they rule Europe. They must be bricking it over the gas.

No but they do rule their own air space.

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:51 am

Dunners wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:30 am It appears* that Germany are refusing airspace access for UK military flights bringing any support and equipment to Ukraine. Two NATO allies. Some parts of the new government are also signalling that they will not reject Russia from the swift banking system or participate in other sanctions should the invasion take place.

If this is true it has serious implications for the EU and NATO, and is making their Eastern European and Baltic State neighbours very nervous. And it sends out a signal to Putin that the Western alliance is not as steadfast as it is supposed to be.

*No official confirmation yet, but this is indicated by Flightradar24 and several reputable foreign and UK journalists are beginning to brief on it. Even neither government denying this by the end of today will be a massive deal.

Not sure but maybe the Ruskies have already picked up on the thawing of relations over the
last 6 years?

From a military and defence perspective, there has been no real thawing of relations. This is one area where the UK is demonstrating strong global leadership and solidarity with our partners, regardless of our EU membership. Ben Wallace* is revered in Ukraine and Poland, and many other European countries.

If Russia are really going to go ahead with this, then they have already allowed for serious consequences in their calculus. This signalling from Germany (if correct) simply means that they can now adjust their calculations to an even more favourable position. It's also telling that since this story started to break last night, Russia is instructing it's diplomats to start leaving Ukraine.

Merkel was stupid in shutting down the German nuclear energy plants. It was always going to mean they became more dependant on Russian gas. And any nation in between Germany and Russia will now know that Germany is prepared to sacrifice its relations with fellow NATO allies, and turn a blind eye to its neighbours being invaded, so long as they get to keep the gas flowing. The implications of this for relations between European states may be far bigger than the UK leaving the EU.

*This essay by Ben Wallace is actually a decent read and has been extensively reproduced throughout eastern Europe:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/an-a ... in-ukraine

Why do Russia want to invade? Just a land grab?

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:58 pm Why do Russia want to invade? Just a land grab?

Because they believe it belongs to them. Like the Falklands to the UK.

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:58 pm Why do Russia want to invade? Just a land grab?

Because they are the baddies. Just look at their hats ffs.

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:16 am For anyone interested, Putin is currently doing his annual end of year news conference. He's sounding proper demented and paranoid.

He’s no Charlie Brooker, that’s clear.

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:58 pm Why do Russia want to invade? Just a land grab?

Russians have always had a hated of Ukrainians, believing that they’re lower class than ethnic Russians. Stalin’s treatment of Ukrainians was appalling, to the extent that many Ukrainians sided with the Nazis in 1941 when they invaded and tried to take Kiev. The Russians blew up the world’s biggest dam to delay the Nazi advances, only they didn’t actually tell the local people they were doing it. An estimated 100,000 Ukrainians were killed in the resulting floods.

They’ve been bitter enemies ever since. This really isn’t going to end well.

Ronnie Hotdogs wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:32 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:16 am For anyone interested, Putin is currently doing his annual end of year news conference. He's sounding proper demented and paranoid.

He’s no Charlie Brooker, that’s clear.

Gone downhill since he Americanised it for Netflix.