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I may be sentimental and saaaaad but for me not having a youth system robs the club of an improtant aspect of what it means to be a community club. If its just going to be run like any other business then I'm afraid I'm out.CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:13 pmYes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.
I attended 3 games last season. So get it right up you. I will also be attending the Port Vale game in September.CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:20 pm Sorry to hear that. I hope the club is able to continue without you attending your 1 away game a season.
Yep it’s called signing players for millions of pounds and selling them them on at a profit.CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:13 pmYes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.
The system they run gives young cast-offs a second chance. That is surely good for the community. Like a football safety-net.Max B Gold wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:17 pmI may be sentimental and saaaaad but for me not having a youth system robs the club of an improtant aspect of what it means to be a community club. If its just going to be run like any other business then I'm afraid I'm out.CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:13 pmYes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.
Perhaps when its off set by the one off sales of players.Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:36 pm Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?
They sold players to balance the books(or not in this case)Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:36 pm Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?
Neal Maupay was sold in the summer for £20M. With your numbers, that means they only have to find one Maupay every 5 years, or the equivalent, for the system to work.Byways1 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:03 pmThey sold players to balance the books(or not in this case)Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:36 pm Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?
Not really.Red_Army wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:57 pmThe system they run gives young cast-offs a second chance. That is surely good for the community. Like a football safety-net.Max B Gold wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:17 pmI may be sentimental and saaaaad but for me not having a youth system robs the club of an improtant aspect of what it means to be a community club. If its just going to be run like any other business then I'm afraid I'm out.CreamofSumYungGai wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:13 pm
Yes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.
More like 16m and 20% going back to France.Red_Army wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:05 pmNeal Maupay was sold in the summer for £20M. With your numbers, that means they only have to find one Maupay every 5 years, or the equivalent, for the system to work.Byways1 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:03 pmThey sold players to balance the books(or not in this case)Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:36 pm Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?
Alabi may be on the market soon.Byways1 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:06 pmMore like 16m and 20% going back to France.
But financially a good deal.
Now they’ve got to replace his 37 goals in 85 games.
Good luck with that.
Please I really hope soDisoriented wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:36 amAlabi may be on the market soon.
Great post - very interesting indeed.Horient wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:45 am A good friend of mine’s older brother was actually on the board of Brentford and is close friends with Matt Benham, the owner and man behind their statistical model. He also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark who take a similar approach.
Just a few examples of where the model works below;
Scott Hogan - 900k sold for 9.4m after 1.5 seasons.
Neal Maupay - 1.9m sold for 19.8m after 2 seasons
Konsa - 2.5m sold for 11.97m after a year.
Sawyers - Free sold for 2.88m after 3 seasons
Bentley - Free sold for 1.98m after 3 seasons
Chris Mepham - Free sold for 12.1m after 2.5 seasons.
Ryan Woods - 1.2m sold for 6.5m after 3.5 years.
I’ve obviously chosen good examples but the net after all of the sales on these is 58m over the past 4 years. That’s around a 880% return on those 7 assets.
They apparently guarantee players they will always play & be sold after a certain period of time or if a bid comes in for a certain amount where the model dictates they are getting the optimum value for the player against the value they were bought for. This takes into account age, position etc.
A good example being Konsa who was apparently torn between Villa and Brentford. Brentford persuaded him to join by guaranteeing him first team football and being sold after a certain amount of games or if a bid came in for a certain value instead of sitting behind John Terry and Collins at Villa a few seasons ago. Ironically he has now gone to Villa for 9.4m more than they were bidding just 1.5 years earlier.
A good example of someone who might leave soon would be Ollie Watkins signed from Exeter in July 2017 for 1.8m and will easily move on for 8m plus. They have an entire team of back up transfers who they believe can replace each player for cheaper if they leave and will in turn sell them on after a few seasons for a profit.
I don’t know enough in terms of financial viability in the long term but I imagine if you can find a Scott Hogan, Neal Maupay or Konsa every two seasons or so it should keep it all ticking over nicely and would wipe out a year where they did make a loss
I think you will find that every football league clubs policy is to sell players for more than what they paid for them, but it has to be said their recruitment is second to none, they don’t appear to buy any duds.Disoriented wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:48 amGreat post - very interesting indeed.Horient wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:45 am A good friend of mine’s older brother was actually on the board of Brentford and is close friends with Matt Benham, the owner and man behind their statistical model. He also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark who take a similar approach.
Just a few examples of where the model works below;
Scott Hogan - 900k sold for 9.4m after 1.5 seasons.
Neal Maupay - 1.9m sold for 19.8m after 2 seasons
Konsa - 2.5m sold for 11.97m after a year.
Sawyers - Free sold for 2.88m after 3 seasons
Bentley - Free sold for 1.98m after 3 seasons
Chris Mepham - Free sold for 12.1m after 2.5 seasons.
Ryan Woods - 1.2m sold for 6.5m after 3.5 years.
I’ve obviously chosen good examples but the net after all of the sales on these is 58m over the past 4 years. That’s around a 880% return on those 7 assets.
They apparently guarantee players they will always play & be sold after a certain period of time or if a bid comes in for a certain amount where the model dictates they are getting the optimum value for the player against the value they were bought for. This takes into account age, position etc.
A good example being Konsa who was apparently torn between Villa and Brentford. Brentford persuaded him to join by guaranteeing him first team football and being sold after a certain amount of games or if a bid came in for a certain value instead of sitting behind John Terry and Collins at Villa a few seasons ago. Ironically he has now gone to Villa for 9.4m more than they were bidding just 1.5 years earlier.
A good example of someone who might leave soon would be Ollie Watkins signed from Exeter in July 2017 for 1.8m and will easily move on for 8m plus. They have an entire team of back up transfers who they believe can replace each player for cheaper if they leave and will in turn sell them on after a few seasons for a profit.
I don’t know enough in terms of financial viability in the long term but I imagine if you can find a Scott Hogan, Neal Maupay or Konsa every two seasons or so it should keep it all ticking over nicely and would wipe out a year where they did make a loss
Exactly that. When I mention the model I refer to their actual statistical model used that Benham created when running his betting business. It’s been adapted to take player attributes into account, future values etc like in the book ’Moneyball’ and like you mention seems to give them a much greater chance of not buying any duds!Byways1 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:04 pmI think you will find that every football league clubs policy is to sell players for more than what they paid for them, but it has to be said their recruitment is second to none, they don’t appear to buy any duds.Disoriented wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:48 amGreat post - very interesting indeed.Horient wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:45 am A good friend of mine’s older brother was actually on the board of Brentford and is close friends with Matt Benham, the owner and man behind their statistical model. He also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark who take a similar approach.
Just a few examples of where the model works below;
Scott Hogan - 900k sold for 9.4m after 1.5 seasons.
Neal Maupay - 1.9m sold for 19.8m after 2 seasons
Konsa - 2.5m sold for 11.97m after a year.
Sawyers - Free sold for 2.88m after 3 seasons
Bentley - Free sold for 1.98m after 3 seasons
Chris Mepham - Free sold for 12.1m after 2.5 seasons.
Ryan Woods - 1.2m sold for 6.5m after 3.5 years.
I’ve obviously chosen good examples but the net after all of the sales on these is 58m over the past 4 years. That’s around a 880% return on those 7 assets.
They apparently guarantee players they will always play & be sold after a certain period of time or if a bid comes in for a certain amount where the model dictates they are getting the optimum value for the player against the value they were bought for. This takes into account age, position etc.
A good example being Konsa who was apparently torn between Villa and Brentford. Brentford persuaded him to join by guaranteeing him first team football and being sold after a certain amount of games or if a bid came in for a certain value instead of sitting behind John Terry and Collins at Villa a few seasons ago. Ironically he has now gone to Villa for 9.4m more than they were bidding just 1.5 years earlier.
A good example of someone who might leave soon would be Ollie Watkins signed from Exeter in July 2017 for 1.8m and will easily move on for 8m plus. They have an entire team of back up transfers who they believe can replace each player for cheaper if they leave and will in turn sell them on after a few seasons for a profit.
I don’t know enough in terms of financial viability in the long term but I imagine if you can find a Scott Hogan, Neal Maupay or Konsa every two seasons or so it should keep it all ticking over nicely and would wipe out a year where they did make a loss
I get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).Byways1 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:25 amAre you being serious?Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:52 am I dont really get what you are saying? They are replacing good players with equal quality players, who are cheaper? Whys that not sustainable?
Was Moores a good replacement for Kitchen?
Finney for Griffiths?
The bloke who replaced the geezer we sold to Fulham for 1m
Not to mention the strike force we’ve got now.
No, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.Kitch’s Magic Toes wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:32 amI get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).Byways1 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:25 amAre you being serious?Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:52 am I dont really get what you are saying? They are replacing good players with equal quality players, who are cheaper? Whys that not sustainable?
Was Moores a good replacement for Kitchen?
Finney for Griffiths?
The bloke who replaced the geezer we sold to Fulham for 1m
Not to mention the strike force we’ve got now.
Whatever they are using it is very successful.Horient wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:13 pmExactly that. When I mention the model I refer to their actual statistical model used that Benham created when running his betting business. It’s been adapted to take player attributes into account, future values etc like in the book ’Moneyball’ and like you mention seems to give them a much greater chance of not buying any duds!
If only Teague has contacts at Microsoft...
Ah, you’re right. We only signed Mkindawire the following season, my mistake. Clayton Fortune is the donkey you’re thinking of.Byways1 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:03 amNo, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.Kitch’s Magic Toes wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:32 amI get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).
To get a million pound for him was the best deal in the clubs history.
Anybody who saw him get torn apart at Oxford on the 6th May could see that.
Don’t think he ever played a league game for Fulham.
Who was the bloke we got in replacement from Port Vale?
Absolutely hopeless, and I think Ling gave him a 2/3 year contract so we were stuck with him.
Cheers.Kitch’s Magic Toes wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:12 amAh, you’re right. We only signed Mkindawire the following season, my mistake. Clayton Fortune is the donkey you’re thinking of.Byways1 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:03 amNo, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.Kitch’s Magic Toes wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:32 am
I get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).
To get a million pound for him was the best deal in the clubs history.
Anybody who saw him get torn apart at Oxford on the 6th May could see that.
Don’t think he ever played a league game for Fulham.
Who was the bloke we got in replacement from Port Vale?
Absolutely hopeless, and I think Ling gave him a 2/3 year contract so we were stuck with him.
Byways1 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:14 amCheers.Kitch’s Magic Toes wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:12 amAh, you’re right. We only signed Mkindawire the following season, my mistake. Clayton Fortune is the donkey you’re thinking of.Byways1 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:03 am
No, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.
To get a million pound for him was the best deal in the clubs history.
Anybody who saw him get torn apart at Oxford on the 6th May could see that.
Don’t think he ever played a league game for Fulham.
Who was the bloke we got in replacement from Port Vale?
Absolutely hopeless, and I think Ling gave him a 2/3 year contract so we were stuck with him.
That’s him.
God he was awful.