Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Mon Feb 03, 2025 3:55 pm
All of that assumes the US is capable of delivering. I'm not so sure they will remain stable internally.

Dunners wrote: ↑Mon Feb 03, 2025 10:00 am It's part of a wider strategy that will see the end of multilateralism, and bring in the new era of unilateralism whereby the US is the main power-broker and chooses to engage with individual nations on a purely transactional basis. The way politics, international trade, security, and even capitalism, have been managed since WWII is over. The US has decided that the current system exposes them to too many downsides, and not enough upsides, so they are ending it.

There will be short- to medium-term pain for US consumers. Any gains from tariffs will be lost to reciprocal action from other countries and increases in domestic goods prices. Plus, the process of reindustrialising will be inflationary, so expect to see their central bank intervening (which could have nasty second-order effects on the £).

But longer-term, they will be less plugged in (and therefore exposed) to the "international world order". It will also disrupt and potentially undermine the cohesiveness of any other trading blocks, such as the EU. And, there will be massive opportunity to consolidate wealth and power within the US system for those in a position to do so.

Adz wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 2:24 am Isn't this predicated on the US driving down wages and creating rampant poverty? When the majority get hit by this surely they pivot to a different leader?

Dunners wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 7:20 am

Adz wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 2:24 am Isn't this predicated on the US driving down wages and creating rampant poverty? When the majority get hit by this surely they pivot to a different leader?

F*ck knows. If they want to drive up exports then they'll look to drive down wages. But by the time then next election comes along it's hard to predict what the economic and political landscape will look like.

Right now, the Trump Party controls the three main political institutions and he has the tech bros onside. He has two years before he faces any political risk, so he's going to go hell for leather now.

Hoover Attack wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 8:40 am

Dunners wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 7:20 am

Adz wrote: ↑Tue Feb 04, 2025 2:24 am Isn't this predicated on the US driving down wages and creating rampant poverty? When the majority get hit by this surely they pivot to a different leader?

F*ck knows. If they want to drive up exports then they'll look to drive down wages. But by the time then next election comes along it's hard to predict what the economic and political landscape will look like.

Right now, the Trump Party controls the three main political institutions and he has the tech bros onside. He has two years before he faces any political risk, so he's going to go hell for leather now.

These are the final days, aren’t they? I’m sure pammy will be along to tell me not to worry about things that won’t happen. But this must be what final days look and feel like.