Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Chelmsford Swimmer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:22 pm 7 points required to guarantee promotion, 11 points required to guarantee being champions.

That’s if all our rivals win all their games

Chelmsford Swimmer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:22 pm 7 points required to guarantee promotion, 11 points required to guarantee being champions.

8 i believe incase of GD

It'll all look different again come 5pm anyway

B.whitehouse+10more wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:26 pm

Chelmsford Swimmer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:22 pm 7 points required to guarantee promotion, 11 points required to guarantee being champions.

That’s if all our rivals win all their games

Which is not possible

Story of O wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:00 pm

B.whitehouse+10more wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:26 pm

Chelmsford Swimmer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:22 pm 7 points required to guarantee promotion, 11 points required to guarantee being champions.

That’s if all our rivals win all their games

Which is not possible

All of Stevenage, Carlisle, and Bradford can win all
of their games, none of them play each other, achieving at least 86 points, so we need 7 points to be guaranteed promotion.

Chelmsford Swimmer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:40 pm

Story of O wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:00 pm

B.whitehouse+10more wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:26 pm

That’s if all our rivals win all their games

Which is not possible

All of Stevenage, Carlisle, and Bradford can win all
of their games, none of them play each other, achieving at least 86 points, so we need 7 points to be guaranteed promotion.

Nope. 5. Check the fixtures again.

UPDATE

Orient 99 currently on 81 points
Northampton 88
Carlisle 85
Stevenage 88
Stockport 85
Bradford 86
Mansfield 83

Could go up vs Sutton if we win and Carlisle, Stockport and Bradford all lose

Latest position - 5 for guaranteed promotion, 8 for guaranteed Champions

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 5:28 pm Could go up vs Sutton if we win and Carlisle, Stockport and Bradford all lose

Playing with the scores, it looks like - if we win Vs Sutton - it wouldn't matter how Carlisle & Northampton went, so long as Bradford Lose and Stockport fail to win, we'd be guaranteed promotion

I might have to join Team 160 and say i dont understand your workings.

EH16 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 5:22 pm

Chelmsford Swimmer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:40 pm

Story of O wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:00 pm

Which is not possible

All of Stevenage, Carlisle, and Bradford can win all
of their games, none of them play each other, achieving at least 86 points, so we need 7 points to be guaranteed promotion.

Nope. 5. Check the fixtures again.

Checked the fixtures again, the statement was correct, which two of Stevenage, Carlisle, and Bradford do you think are playing each other ? That said the situation has changed now and we need less points.

Well work through the scenarios on the table above.

If we beat Sutton, we're on 84 points. If Bradford lose, the best they can get to is 83 points - so they're out of the picture, as are Mansfield. Stevenage can still get more than 84 points, so that's one team who can catch us, so we'd need 2 out of Northampton, Carlisle and Stockport to beat 84 points to thwart us. If Stockport only get a point on Saturday, then they could still get to 84 points, but they'd need to beat Carlisle - which screws Carlisle up.

If Carlisle beat Northampton that stops Northampton getting to 84, if Northampton beat Carlisle, that stops them.

Edit : Hold on.

If Carlisle beat Northampton, but then Northampton win all their remaining games (including Bradford) then both of them will still be able to get to 85. A draw means Carlisle can't (I think)

Get a grip everyone! We would have to lose all our games and all the other teams win most of theirs. It could happen but it won’t

Absolutely! But it would still be nice to know exactly when to pop the champagne secure in the knowledge that the Os can't possibly screw it up!!

Story of O wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 6:47 pm Get a grip everyone! We would have to lose all our games and all the other teams win most of theirs. It could happen but it won’t

And don't forget to take goal difference into account as well

StillSpike wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 5:29 pm Latest position - 5 for guaranteed promotion, 8 for guaranteed Champions

Agree.

As of now Stevenage and/ or Northampton could reach 88 points, so we need 89 to be sure of the title, which is another 8 points.

Only Stevenage, Northampton and Bradford City can get more than 85 points, but the latter two still have to play each other, and they can’t both get more than 85 points whatever happens when they meet, hence 86 will ensure automatic which is another 5 points needed.

Mansfield away anyone?

UPDATE

Orient 99 currently on 84 points
Northampton 86
Carlisle 83
Stevenage 88
Stockport 83
Bradford 86

Tuesday

Win or draw vs Gills and we're up
Win and title is ours if Stevenage dont win
If Northampton or Bradford lose, we're up

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2023 5:03 pm Tuesday

Win or draw vs Gills and we're up
Win and title is ours if Stevenage dont win
If Northampton or Bradford lose, we're up

It’s better than that.

If either Northampton or Bradford lose OR draw Tuesday we are promoted even in the unlikely event of an Orient defeat !

If they draw they'd then be able to get a maximum of 84 points, which is what we have.

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2023 10:08 pm If they draw they'd then be able to get a maximum of 84 points, which is what we have.

As Bradford and Northampton still have to play each other, if one only draws on Tuesday they cant both then get to 84 points, which would then guarantee us promotion.