Independent Leyton Orient Forum

We’ll never know.

Some wiggle room at least.

Number of deaths in those under sixty years old with no underlying health conditions: 350

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 6:02 pm

faldO wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 5:58 pm

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 5:42 pm ONS survey data reports that 0.27% of respondents have been infected with Covid-19. That's a miniscule percentage which, based on a rounded population of 68million, extrapolates to 204k people in Great Britain. I've calculated that based on 0.3% and caveat this by highlighting that I'm aware that the confidence range will likely be a bit more than +/- 0.03 and the sample size is still very very low.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

I thought the same when I first read it, because it would also mean a very large death rate.

But I think it is a survey of the number of people estimated to HAVE it over a period of 2 weeks up to the point of end of survey 10th May, rather than HAVE HAD it.

Yep, that's right - it's the two weeks to 10 May. But if the death rate is truly around the 1% mark of those infected then that means approx 2k deaths in the past two weeks. Need to cross reference that.

Sample size is tiny though in the grand scheme and not sure of how it has been sampled (presumably nat rep, but how nat rep can you really be at 11k for something this serious). Think we'd need 68k minimum sample and ideally around 350k before we can look at infection proportion. Also cannot work out the confidence range as I can't see any way of working out the standard deviation without the ONS making this data available.

Looking at the data, at 95% confidence the percentage range goes from 0.17% to 0.41%. That in the worst case extrapolates to 278,000 infections in Great Britain during the two weeks to 10 May and, going by the estimated death rate of 1%, 2,788 estimated deaths. Will compare that to the actual deaths total in the whole of Great Britain.

Or as the ONS puts it (figures below are for just England, which I believe is the only nation covered by the survey)

All estimates are subject to uncertainty, given that a sample is only a subset representation of the wider population. However, confidence intervals provide us with a range of values that we believe contain the unknown true number of cases testing positive for COVID-19 infection. While we estimate that 148,000 people in England would test positive, if we repeated this study many times, 95% of the time the true number of positives would lie between 94,000 and 222,000. This equates to between 0.17% and 0.41% of the target population.

The decision to force air passengers into quarantine when they arrive in the UK “doesn’t make sense” at this stage of the coronavirus pandemic, a senior government adviser has told the Guardian, piling pressure on ministers to explain the scientific basis for their border policies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... viser-says

What an utterly clueless, incompetent Tory Govt.

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 11:25 am The decision to force air passengers into quarantine when they arrive in the UK “doesn’t make sense” at this stage of the coronavirus pandemic, a senior government adviser has told the Guardian, piling pressure on ministers to explain the scientific basis for their border policies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... viser-says

What an utterly clueless, incompetent Tory Govt.

Whose actions and inactions have caused thousands of deaths.

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:30 am At last, some common sense:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... eople.html

It's actually quite amusing reading your progression on this thread

At the start you told everyone it was just flu and that face masks were crazy. You said the press were being hysterical

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3527&p=92938#p92938

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3571&p=94206#p94206

See also link above

You then went to on to abuse anyone who raised concerns about the NHS and flouted government recommendations on not attending busy establishment just as the virus was taking hold in the country

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3527&p=96853#p96853

Then when sh*t hit the fan, partially because of selfish twats like yourself, you do a complete 180 and started with this current act. Castigating the government for not taking swift action and blaming ordinary people forced to return to work for not wearing masks on public transport, masks you called crazy.

Must have happened some time between the 19/03 and the 26/03. On the former you celebrating your pub being open and you abused someone who raised concerns about the NHS. On the latter you posted your first of many links to articles relating to problems in the NHS (that you'd dismissed the previous week)

Keep it up

Some of those figures, and the opening of cities in Australia give me a bit of hope. However, we really aren't going to know until about 2 weeks time and if the spike (which will happen) is relatively low or massive. I still worry that places like London are going to rocket again and it will set back the plan months but seems like there's a glimmer of hope.

Would be good to see TFL handing out face masks to those who can't afford or source their own, especially during busy periods.

My commute is a nightmare and now I take 5 trains (most for one or two stops) instead of 2 just to avoid the Jubilee line which is packed all day

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 12:30 pm Would be good to see TFL handing out face masks to those who can't afford or source their own, especially during busy periods.

If the mayor won't provide them for his own staff, fat chance of him doing it for the public. His behaviour and motives during this crisis have been questionable to say the least.

He's also just reintroduced the congestion charge after people have been told not to travel on public transport system "As he doesn't want the roads to be overwhelmed"

Just wandering how they expect the lower paid to get to work then as the congestion charge is now £11.50 and going upto £15 in the near future.

Elderly and disabled people's freedom passes suspended during peak hours

Basically, tfl is on the brink of bankruptcy, and they've had to go cap in hand to the government for a bailout.
The Government has put certain conditions in place before they would give this money, so to blame Khan is unfair and plain wrong.....blame the Tory government.....its them thats made these conditions

The government just made a decision which will mean coronavirus is never eradicated in the UK.
Boris Johnson is effectively going to cull rough sleepers, says Fleet Street Fox. And rough sleeping is about to rocket:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-22032813

Evil, sick, inhumane Tory Scum.

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 1:34 pm Basically, tfl is on the brink of bankruptcy, and they've had to go cap in hand to the government for a bailout.
The Government has put certain conditions in place before they would give this money, so to blame Khan is unfair and plain wrong.....blame the Tory government.....its them thats made these conditions

The conditions of the bailout have nothing to do with the fact that TFL is a loss-making business.

TFL have made some bizarre decisions during this pandemic, some mentioned above, and others like rather than put proper protection on buses for their drivers they decided to not collect any fares to "avoid passengers approaching the driver". How difficult would it be to put measures in place to secure the driver's compartment, which would have been paid for over and over again by now.

Blaming the Tory government for TFL's woes is unfair and plain wrong.

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 1:34 pm The government just made a decision which will mean coronavirus is never eradicated in the UK.
Boris Johnson is effectively going to cull rough sleepers, says Fleet Street Fox. And rough sleeping is about to rocket:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-22032813

Evil, sick, inhumane Tory Scum.

That's alright though because you told us it was just flu

faldO wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 1:59 pm

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 1:34 pm Basically, tfl is on the brink of bankruptcy, and they've had to go cap in hand to the government for a bailout.
The Government has put certain conditions in place before they would give this money, so to blame Khan is unfair and plain wrong.....blame the Tory government.....its them thats made these conditions

The conditions of the bailout have nothing to do with the fact that TFL is a loss-making business.

TFL have made some bizarre decisions during this pandemic, some mentioned above, and others like rather than put proper protection on buses for their drivers they decided to not collect any fares to "avoid passengers approaching the driver". How difficult would it be to put measures in place to secure the driver's compartment, which would have been paid for over and over again by now.

Blaming the Tory government for TFL's woes is unfair and plain wrong.

Yeps some can see Labour and their representatives doing no wrong quite literally wearing rose tinted specs.

'No doubt we cannot reopen schools' by June 1 says council:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/b ... n=sharebar

Nice one Liverpool.

Up yours Johnson.......you gormless Tory oaf!

faldO wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 1:59 pm

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 1:34 pm Basically, tfl is on the brink of bankruptcy, and they've had to go cap in hand to the government for a bailout.
The Government has put certain conditions in place before they would give this money, so to blame Khan is unfair and plain wrong.....blame the Tory government.....its them thats made these conditions

The conditions of the bailout have nothing to do with the fact that TFL is a loss-making business.

TFL have made some bizarre decisions during this pandemic, some mentioned above, and others like rather than put proper protection on buses for their drivers they decided to not collect any fares to "avoid passengers approaching the driver". How difficult would it be to put measures in place to secure the driver's compartment, which would have been paid for over and over again by now.

Blaming the Tory government for TFL's woes is unfair and plain wrong.

Spoken like a true Tory!

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 2:04 pm

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 1:34 pm The government just made a decision which will mean coronavirus is never eradicated in the UK.
Boris Johnson is effectively going to cull rough sleepers, says Fleet Street Fox. And rough sleeping is about to rocket:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-22032813

Evil, sick, inhumane Tory Scum.

That's alright though because you told us it was just flu

He also fails to mention or highlight all of the people who were offered permanent places to live. Proper to this crisis this would not have happened, but now they have a permanent residence which is to be applauded. If the numbers they quote is represented across the country then a massive homeless population had been re-housed.

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:16 pm 'No doubt we cannot reopen schools' by June 1 says council:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/b ... n=sharebar

Nice one Liverpool.

Up yours Johnson.......you gormless Tory oaf!

Your comments and smilie reveal the true motives here - political. Nothing to do with putting children's education first or finding a way forwards in a constructive manner.

Unions tell staff "not to engage" with plan to reopen schools: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... partions-1

It's about some wanting their fully paid up holiday to go on until September. I bet they're packing their tweed jackets with their leather elbow patches as we speak and looking forward to another four months of reading their Guardians.

Come on, who’s behind this one?

RedO wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:55 pm Come on, who’s behind this one?

Thor

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 4:10 pm

RedO wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:55 pm Come on, who’s behind this one?

Thor

I was going to say Gilso so .......

Why aren't we doing the daily death tally anymore?