Russia / Ukraine Watch

[Dunners]

Obviously, we wouldn’t go there to fight but can you not see the danger . We are there on the ground if things go inevitably tits up . We are dealing with a nuclear power here, not Iraq or Afghanistan and anyway, how did they both work out?

Yes, RD, you're right. It's not that we cannot see the danger, it's just that there are no longer good options.

If we do nothing, then Russia will succeed. This will lead to a number of second-order consequences which could eventually prove really bad for us. These include (but not limited to), Russia continuing to expand and enter direct contact with allies, and other hostile regimes around the world realising that it's open season for their expansionist plans.

This will see an escalation in nuclear proliferation, as that will become a smaller country's best deterrence against a larger hostile neighbour. Not only will war become more likely, the risk of it going nuclear will increase.

But the presence of coalition troops occupying a DMZ-style strip in Ukraine to enforce some flimsy ceasefire carries plenty of risk too. And we know that Russia has designs on territories beyond those it already controls. We also know that Russia will have scant regard for any ceasefire agreement.

And the reason we are in this mess now, while it has been a long time coming, is largely down to the recent decisions and actions by Trump and the MAGA crew.

[Bandy Legs]

Ok, keep funding Ukraine then and let them fight it out to the finish . Do you think Ukraine can win this war on the battlefield ? Although they have lionhearted troops, sadly I can't . They are vastly outgunned and outmanned . That's why Zelensky is trying to drag us directly into this war and thanks to Starmer's statement yesterday he appears to be succeeding .

Where has Starmer said we're going to join in the fighting? He's said he's prepared to put peacekeeping troops on the ground after the war ends but he too wants US support for this.

Of course Zelensky would like NATO Countries to join the war but that won't happen unless Putin escalates. Putin has expansionist plans. If he takes Ukraine - and Trump/Musk has just made that much more likely to their eternal shame - then Putin will look to other states to invade. Given Trump has stated publicly and loudly that he won't support NATO then, effectively, Trump has given Putin the green light to do whatever he wants to do with Europe. Trumps part in this is disgusting and Europe - by the way we are still part of Europe let alone our commitments to NATO - will have to pay the price for Trumps duplicity and self interest. Trump, Musk and all the other billionaires will do very nicely out of all this, as they always do. In the current scenario there will likely be a high human cost as well.

Obviously, we wouldn’t go there to fight but can you not see the danger . We are there on the ground if things go inevitably tits up . We are dealing with a nuclear power here, not Iraq or Afghanistan and anyway, how did they both work out?

USSR got its arse kicked in Afthanistan, not sure when they were at war with Iraq

[StillSpike]

"Europe, together with Ukraine, has twice as many fighter jets as Russia, and in terms of the number of professional soldiers, our advantage over Russia is clear. The issue is not numbers but a lack of belief in our own strength," – observed Donald Tusk.

The Prime Minister presented data from The International Institute for Strategic Studies, showing that Europe, together with Ukraine, possesses twice as many fighter jets as Russia and has a significant advantage in the number of professional soldiers.

"The paradox is that 500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. We must rely on ourselves, fully aware of our potential and with confidence that we are a global power," – emphasized the Polish Prime Minister, pointing to the need to rethink Europe’s role.

According to the presented data, Europe and Ukraine have 2.6 million professional soldiers, while Russia has 1.1 million. A similar advantage applies to combat aircraft, with 2,991 on the side of Europe and Ukraine compared to 1,224 in Russia. In terms of artillery, Europe, including Ukraine, significantly outpaces Russia, possessing 14,400 units versus Russia’s 5,157."


I wouldn't expect the Poles to back down, there is some history here.

Add in the poor state of the Russian economy compared to the capacity of Europe and its a no-brainer. Europe would win but I would be extra careful about the time of year we invade.

There's also the fact that the Russians don't seem to mind throwing their conscripts into the meat-grinder whereas I'd hope our commanders would be a bit more concerned about casualties, so simple numbers of troops aren't the only measure. Desperately hope this doesn't escalate, but I really can't see that appeasement is an option. If only there was a non-lunatic in the White House the world might have a chance.

Maybe someone close to Putin will do the world a favour.

[Dunners]

"Europe, together with Ukraine, has twice as many fighter jets as Russia, and in terms of the number of professional soldiers, our advantage over Russia is clear. The issue is not numbers but a lack of belief in our own strength," – observed Donald Tusk.

The Prime Minister presented data from The International Institute for Strategic Studies, showing that Europe, together with Ukraine, possesses twice as many fighter jets as Russia and has a significant advantage in the number of professional soldiers.

"The paradox is that 500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. We must rely on ourselves, fully aware of our potential and with confidence that we are a global power," – emphasized the Polish Prime Minister, pointing to the need to rethink Europe’s role.

According to the presented data, Europe and Ukraine have 2.6 million professional soldiers, while Russia has 1.1 million. A similar advantage applies to combat aircraft, with 2,991 on the side of Europe and Ukraine compared to 1,224 in Russia. In terms of artillery, Europe, including Ukraine, significantly outpaces Russia, possessing 14,400 units versus Russia’s 5,157."


I wouldn't expect the Poles to back down, there is some history here.

Add in the poor state of the Russian economy compared to the capacity of Europe and its a no-brainer. Europe would win but I would be extra careful about the time of year we invade.

There's also the fact that the Russians don't seem to mind throwing their conscripts into the meat-grinder whereas I'd hope our commanders would be a bit more concerned about casualties, so simple numbers of troops aren't the only measure. Desperately hope this doesn't escalate, but I really can't see that appeasement is an option. If only there was a non-lunatic in the White House the world might have a chance.

Maybe someone close to Putin will do the world a favour.

The bad news is that, out of the Kremlin top brass, Putin is possibly the most reasonable.

The good news is that Western militaries have tended to operate in a way that doesn't see their infantry as so expendable as the Russians. However, it's just a question of degrees. There will still be a meat grinder.

If this thing goes hot, then the lessons from the previous World Wars are clear. The army you have by the end of the war is always made up of civilian conscripts, as your professional army is always dead within the first year. Those of us with children who are at or approaching military age should start thinking of options now.

[Max B Gold]

If the relative unpopularity of Putin is thrown into the mix the Russian people are will not be fully behind him.

They won't like their people being thrown into the meat grinder and therefore instability follows as food and the basics are rationed.

All that will be required is a new Lenin and a revolution to overthrow the evil dictator will follow.

Of course all that is up in the air if Russias new ally joins the fray. But there will be enough instability in the US to prevent that and a second revolution there cannot be ruled out. Exciting times.

[BoniO]

Ok, keep funding Ukraine then and let them fight it out to the finish . Do you think Ukraine can win this war on the battlefield ? Although they have lionhearted troops, sadly I can't . They are vastly outgunned and outmanned . That's why Zelensky is trying to drag us directly into this war and thanks to Starmer's statement yesterday he appears to be succeeding .

Where has Starmer said we're going to join in the fighting? He's said he's prepared to put peacekeeping troops on the ground after the war ends but he too wants US support for this.

Of course Zelensky would like NATO Countries to join the war but that won't happen unless Putin escalates. Putin has expansionist plans. If he takes Ukraine - and Trump/Musk has just made that much more likely to their eternal shame - then Putin will look to other states to invade. Given Trump has stated publicly and loudly that he won't support NATO then, effectively, Trump has given Putin the green light to do whatever he wants to do with Europe. Trumps part in this is disgusting and Europe - by the way we are still part of Europe let alone our commitments to NATO - will have to pay the price for Trumps duplicity and self interest. Trump, Musk and all the other billionaires will do very nicely out of all this, as they always do. In the current scenario there will likely be a high human cost as well.

Obviously, we wouldn’t go there to fight but can you not see the danger . We are there on the ground if things go inevitably tits up . We are dealing with a nuclear power here, not Iraq or Afghanistan and anyway, how did they both work out?

Well the US fecked them both up didn't they so we might be OK as Trump is such a chicken livered piece of sh*t and won't be involved.

[Dunners]

Thinking about how everything has panned out in Europe since 1918, could it have been any worse had the axis powers won the first world war?

We wouldn't have had fascism, WW2 or the holocaust. The Ottomans would have kept the middle-east either in check or as their problem. We may have avoided Soviet communism. Europe wouldn't have devastated its population of young males (twice), so we may not have needed to implement mass migration policies to such a degree. Economies would not have been devastated either, so we could have achieved even greater welfare programmes and state investment. Our cities and major towns would look so much nicer.

And we may not be in this situation right now.

[BoniO]

Thinking about how everything has panned out in Europe since 1918, could it have been any worse had the axis powers won the first world war?

We wouldn't have had fascism, WW2 or the holocaust. The Ottomans would have kept the middle-east either in check or as their problem. We may have avoided Soviet communism. Europe wouldn't have devastated its population of young males (twice), so we may not have needed to implement mass migration policies to such a degree. Economies would not have been devastated either, so we could have achieved even greater welfare programmes and state investment. Our cities and major towns would look so much nicer.

And we may not be in this situation right now.

Do you really think that someone, some Country, wouldn't have found some cause to start a war or two in your scenario. Nice hypothesis but no basis in reality.

[Dunners]

Thinking about how everything has panned out in Europe since 1918, could it have been any worse had the axis powers won the first world war?

We wouldn't have had fascism, WW2 or the holocaust. The Ottomans would have kept the middle-east either in check or as their problem. We may have avoided Soviet communism. Europe wouldn't have devastated its population of young males (twice), so we may not have needed to implement mass migration policies to such a degree. Economies would not have been devastated either, so we could have achieved even greater welfare programmes and state investment. Our cities and major towns would look so much nicer.

And we may not be in this situation right now.

Do you really think that someone, some Country, wouldn't have found some cause to start a war or two in your scenario. Nice hypothesis but no basis in reality.

That wasn't the point. Of course they would. But would the outcome have been any worse than the one we've experienced in the last hundred years?

[Hoover Attack]

Don't be silly. The conditions we've had in the last hundred years have been the best mankind has ever known in our 6 million year existence.

[faldO]

"No world wars and one world cup" doesn't have the same ring to it...

[BoniO]

Thinking about how everything has panned out in Europe since 1918, could it have been any worse had the axis powers won the first world war?

We wouldn't have had fascism, WW2 or the holocaust. The Ottomans would have kept the middle-east either in check or as their problem. We may have avoided Soviet communism. Europe wouldn't have devastated its population of young males (twice), so we may not have needed to implement mass migration policies to such a degree. Economies would not have been devastated either, so we could have achieved even greater welfare programmes and state investment. Our cities and major towns would look so much nicer.

And we may not be in this situation right now.

Do you really think that someone, some Country, wouldn't have found some cause to start a war or two in your scenario. Nice hypothesis but no basis in reality.

That wasn't the point. Of course they would. But would the outcome have been any worse than the one we've experienced in the last hundred years?

I'll just pop across to the nearest parallel Universe and see.

[StillSpike]

Do you really think that someone, some Country, wouldn't have found some cause to start a war or two in your scenario. Nice hypothesis but no basis in reality.

That wasn't the point. Of course they would. But would the outcome have been any worse than the one we've experienced in the last hundred years?

I'll just pop across to the nearest parallel Universe and see.

I think you'll find that the nearest parallel universe is the one that's exactly the same as this one, except I haven't typed this post. To get to the one where the Kaiser won in 1918 you'll have to wade through quite a few.

[Dunners]

What if he heads off in the wrong direction?

[BoniO]

That wasn't the point. Of course they would. But would the outcome have been any worse than the one we've experienced in the last hundred years?

I'll just pop across to the nearest parallel Universe and see.

I think you'll find that the nearest parallel universe is the one that's exactly the same as this one, except I haven't typed this post. To get to the one where the Kaiser won in 1918 you'll have to wade through quite a few.

I just got back from the one where Halifax beat Churchill and appeased Hitler. It didn't end well. Hang on, sounds familiar.....

[BoniO]

What if he heads off in the wrong direction?

Well, after an infinite number of stopovers - my light miles are really totting up - and disappear up my own black hole

[Hoover Attack]

Why is dunnem being such a d1ck with all this nonsense talk of parallel universes and the axis of evil emerging victorious???

[Rich Tea Wellin]

I reckon he's writing a script for apple tv +

[BoniO]

I think Philip K willy may have pipped him to the post.

Haha - Philip K d.i.c.k.

[Max B Gold]

Why is dunnem being such a d1ck with all this nonsense talk of parallel universes and the axis of evil emerging victorious???

And he didn't even mention China once. I'm not going to lie I'm worried.

[Hoover Attack]

Someone has been plag playj, er, copying dunnems ideas yet again?

[Bandy Legs]

What if he heads off in the wrong direction?

Well, after an infinite number of stopovers - my light miles are really totting up - and disappear up my own black hole

Bugger, I thought you were Griffin the Archanan for a minute

[Dunners]

Why is dunnem being such a d1ck???

Habit, mainly.

[The Mindsweep]

With the latest news that the US have stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine, is there any point in Europe still hoping that the US changes its current stance. Ukraine is just a money cow for them, nothing more. The US have aligned with Russia and everyone needs to accept it and work out what it means.

[Dunners]

It's understandable that political leaders will hold out hope for some reversal from the US. The global adjustment following this Trump administration will take years to play out.