Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:17 pm

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:07 pm A further 329 deaths in England, full UK figures to come later.

Usual pinch of salt with these and will wait for the rolling weekly data charts later today and the resumption of more typical figures from tomorrow.

Looks like the downward trend continues, lower than the same time last Monday, but as you say Monday figures are always warped by lack of reporting over the weekend.

Hospitalisations have fallen day by day over the last week.
ICU bed use in Scotland down 30% in the last 14 days.

Urgently need to step up testing before lockdown ends and get track and trace sorted out

Latest rolling seven day chart below, though as Dissy would point out this is the hospital deaths and not full picture. There were also approx. 2k care home deaths in the last separate weekly figures, more than double that from the previous week.

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:24 am

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:17 pm

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:07 pm A further 329 deaths in England, full UK figures to come later.

Usual pinch of salt with these and will wait for the rolling weekly data charts later today and the resumption of more typical figures from tomorrow.

Looks like the downward trend continues, lower than the same time last Monday, but as you say Monday figures are always warped by lack of reporting over the weekend.

Hospitalisations have fallen day by day over the last week.
ICU bed use in Scotland down 30% in the last 14 days.

Urgently need to step up testing before lockdown ends and get track and trace sorted out

Latest rolling seven day chart below, though as Dissy would point out this is the hospital deaths and not full picture. There were also approx. 2k care home deaths in the last separate weekly figures, more than double that from the previous week.

The deaths in care homes are a tragedy as are those elsewhere but once any kind of virus takes hold in that sort of environment that's populated by the elderly is very difficult to stop,I worked in a building attached to a care home and saw first hand how Norrovirus ripped through the home and caused complete devistation although not as many fatalities on the scale of Covid. We are winning the battle in the general population but how you stem these deaths in care homes needs a different approach.

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:27 am

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:24 am

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:17 pm

Looks like the downward trend continues, lower than the same time last Monday, but as you say Monday figures are always warped by lack of reporting over the weekend.

Hospitalisations have fallen day by day over the last week.
ICU bed use in Scotland down 30% in the last 14 days.

Urgently need to step up testing before lockdown ends and get track and trace sorted out

Latest rolling seven day chart below, though as Dissy would point out this is the hospital deaths and not full picture. There were also approx. 2k care home deaths in the last separate weekly figures, more than double that from the previous week.

The deaths in care homes are a tragedy as are those elsewhere but once any kind of virus takes hold in that sort of environment that's populated by the elderly is very difficult to stop,I worked in a building attached to a care home and saw first hand how Norrovirus ripped through the home and caused complete devistation although not as many fatalities on the scale of Covid. We are winning the battle in the general population but how you stem these deaths in care homes needs a different approach.

Oh yeah, agreed. I was just caveating the data.

We are heading for the worst death rate in Europe. Not only is this incredibly frightening, but it is shameful.

There is no difference between the general population deaths and care home deaths. Those people are mothers, fathers, grandparents.

This debate affords them no dignity.

Aged lives matter.

Disoriented wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm We are heading for the worst death rate in Europe. Not only is this incredibly frightening, but it is shameful.

There is no difference between the general population deaths and care home deaths. Those people are mothers, fathers, grandparents.

This debate affords them no dignity.

Aged lives matter.

Is that in terms of total numbers or in terms of per capita?

633 deaths today continues the downward trend

If you listen to the TV/Radio/Print you'd think there was a mass clamour to end lockdown as it seems to be brought up every day. Polling released today shows 70% of public don't want it lifted until virus is fully contained. 71% said they'd be fearful of going out even if it was

Source: Ipsos Mori

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:26 pm 633 deaths today continues the downward trend

If you listen to the TV/Radio/Print you'd think there was a mass clamour to end lockdown as it seems to be brought up every day. Polling released today shows 70% of public don't want it lifted until virus is fully contained. 71% said they'd be fearful of going out even if it was

Source: Ipsos Mori

Is this 633 deaths only the hospital ones? If you add non hospital deaths is there still a downward trend?

Disoriented wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm We are heading for the worst death rate in Europe. Not only is this incredibly frightening, but it is shameful.

There is no difference between the general population deaths and care home deaths. Those people are mothers, fathers, grandparents.

This debate affords them no dignity.

Aged lives matter.

Sad times. It looks like the UK's rate will be 4 times worse than Germany who have a bigger population.

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:23 pm

Disoriented wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm We are heading for the worst death rate in Europe. Not only is this incredibly frightening, but it is shameful.

There is no difference between the general population deaths and care home deaths. Those people are mothers, fathers, grandparents.

This debate affords them no dignity.

Aged lives matter.

Is that in terms of total numbers or in terms of per capita?

10% of deaths in the entire world have been here

Real Al wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:27 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:23 pm

Disoriented wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm We are heading for the worst death rate in Europe. Not only is this incredibly frightening, but it is shameful.

There is no difference between the general population deaths and care home deaths. Those people are mothers, fathers, grandparents.

This debate affords them no dignity.

Aged lives matter.

Is that in terms of total numbers or in terms of per capita?

10% of deaths in the entire world have been here

Thanks, doesn't answer my question though

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:30 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:26 pm 633 deaths today continues the downward trend

If you listen to the TV/Radio/Print you'd think there was a mass clamour to end lockdown as it seems to be brought up every day. Polling released today shows 70% of public don't want it lifted until virus is fully contained. 71% said they'd be fearful of going out even if it was

Source: Ipsos Mori

Is this 633 deaths only the hospital ones? If you add non hospital deaths is there still a downward trend?

No and it's impossible to say until the latest tranche of ONS figures

RoryRocks wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:22 pm

Disoriented wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm We are heading for the worst death rate in Europe. Not only is this incredibly frightening, but it is shameful.

There is no difference between the general population deaths and care home deaths. Those people are mothers, fathers, grandparents.

This debate affords them no dignity.

Aged lives matter.

Sad times. It looks like the UK's rate will be 4 times worse than Germany who have a bigger population.

I'm sure they've done a better job than us, but arent they more sparsely populated?

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:26 pm 633 deaths today continues the downward trend

If you listen to the TV/Radio/Print you'd think there was a mass clamour to end lockdown as it seems to be brought up every day. Polling released today shows 70% of public don't want it lifted until virus is fully contained. 71% said they'd be fearful of going out even if it was

Source: Ipsos Mori

I don't want it lifted until it's safe, and none of the people I chat with seem to want it to be either. Loads of us saying "wish we could go to the football again" & " wish i could go to the pub", but none of them want the lockdown lifted as far as our conversations go. (Obvs it's easier to say if you're not laid off or loosing a big slice of income)


But you're correct, there does seem to be a clamour in the media for it, and I know some Tory PMs were bumping their gums about getting it lifted, so there seems to be quite a disconnect between the perceived clamour to get it lifted, and actual general attitudes. I suppose those shouting loud enough get heard, rather than the rest of us who are just getting on with it.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:47 pm

RoryRocks wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:22 pm

Disoriented wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm We are heading for the worst death rate in Europe. Not only is this incredibly frightening, but it is shameful.

There is no difference between the general population deaths and care home deaths. Those people are mothers, fathers, grandparents.

This debate affords them no dignity.

Aged lives matter.

Sad times. It looks like the UK's rate will be 4 times worse than Germany who have a bigger population.

I'm sure they've done a better job than us, but arent they more sparsely populated?

We're 10th in Europe in terms of Popn density and Germany are 11th. 267 ppkm2 vs 233 - so about 15% more dense

Keep hearing Germany have large scale private provision in their healthcare system as well

Whether that's true or not I have no idea as I gave up reading an article on their system after two paragraphs

StillSpike wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:53 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:47 pm

RoryRocks wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:22 pm

Sad times. It looks like the UK's rate will be 4 times worse than Germany who have a bigger population.

I'm sure they've done a better job than us, but arent they more sparsely populated?

We're 10th in Europe in terms of Popn density and Germany are 11th. 267 ppkm2 vs 233 - so about 15% more dense

Do you happen to know if that is a significant difference?

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:55 pm

StillSpike wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:53 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:47 pm

I'm sure they've done a better job than us, but arent they more sparsely populated?

We're 10th in Europe in terms of Popn density and Germany are 11th. 267 ppkm2 vs 233 - so about 15% more dense

Do you happen to know if that is a significant difference?

The population density just takes the land mass and divides it by population. Does that mean anything? There are large tracts of land almost uninhabited in the UK and more so Germany.

Most people in both countries live in the urban environment.

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:02 pm

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:55 pm

StillSpike wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:53 pm


We're 10th in Europe in terms of Popn density and Germany are 11th. 267 ppkm2 vs 233 - so about 15% more dense

Do you happen to know if that is a significant difference?

The population density just takes the land mass and divides it by population. Does that mean anything? There are large tracts of land almost uninhabited in the UK and more so Germany.

Most people in both countries live in the urban environment.

Very true, the figures will be skewed by the proportion of uninhabited land.

From tomorrow the daily figures will include totals of those who have died in care homes and the community.

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:06 pm

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:02 pm

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:55 pm

Do you happen to know if that is a significant difference?

The population density just takes the land mass and divides it by population. Does that mean anything? There are large tracts of land almost uninhabited in the UK and more so Germany.

Most people in both countries live in the urban environment.

Very true, the figures will be skewed by the proportion of uninhabited land.

Which was my point. There was a reason I won the Geography prize at JHS in 4th year.

European density figures

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:43 pm European density figures

If you disregard the top 7 (as they're not helpful comparables) that's pretty much what I would have expected. Quite a big difference between England and Germany.

Dunners wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:54 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:43 pm European density figures

If you disregard the top 7 (as they're not helpful comparables) that's pretty much what I would have expected. Quite a big difference between England and Germany.

Ignore Turkey too. Only including part of the country in a table comparing countries is ridiculous

If it helps, according to google, 83% of UK live in urban areas, Vs 77% of Germans.

So it's all about population density in urban areas, and nothing to do with the Hermans spending 50% more on healthcare per head of population* than we do.

* according to the lady on BBCQT last week