Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:07 am

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:06 am

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:21 am The numbers are somewhat artificial as well because we have been in lockdown for about 5 weeks.

If you relax restrictions, that number probably starts going up again.

Not sure what this means? How are they artificial?

The deaths and infections are only stabilising (sort of) because these measures are in place.

Prove it.

Eh? You need proof that isolating people from each other reduces the increase in the spread of a virus transmitted by human contact?

He doesn't, he just needs to get down B&Q to get his BBQ coals.

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:07 am

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:06 am

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:21 am The numbers are somewhat artificial as well because we have been in lockdown for about 5 weeks.

If you relax restrictions, that number probably starts going up again.

Not sure what this means? How are they artificial?

Well, in the sense of people using them to say that lockdown should be eased or should end. The deaths and infections are only stabilising (sort of) because these measures are in place. It's not a good argument for why they should be relaxed, in fact the opposite.

Ah ok. Yeah, of course things will fly upwards if we remove restrictions right now - is anyone suggesting otherwise? (A handful of daft yanks excluded).

What I find scariest is this is the 'steady state' as mentioned above - even with everything clamped down, we will carry on losing 600-900 people a day indefinitely. That's terrifying.

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:22 am He doesn't, he just needs to get down B&Q to get his BBQ coals.

Its firelighters I'm out of, already had 3 BBQs.

o-no wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:20 am Eh? You need proof that isolating people from each other reduces the increase in the spread of a virus transmitted by human contact?

Yeah it probably does, how effective it is I dont know and is it worthwhile?

All the hints I've seen point towards a May 11th relaxing of restrictions.

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:39 am
Ah ok. Yeah, of course things will fly upwards if we remove restrictions right now - is anyone suggesting otherwise? (A handful of daft yanks excluded).

Yes. An increasing number of corporate lobbyists, right-leaning political commentators and the 1922 Committee. While none of that is a surprise, they will begin to have an influence on public opinion and government policy.

So caca may get his firelighters sooner rather than later.

I see that P&O Cruises have extended their "pause" in Operations.

They originally ( mid March) cancelled all cruises leaving up to the 11th April, and ordered their ships to return to home port in Southampton. They then extended that date, cancelling all cruises leaving up to and including 15th May. They've just extended again, cancelling all sailing up to the end of July.

Obviously this might be because, of all commercial activities, the public are likely to shy away from getting cooped up with a couple thousand other souls for a week or two. Or maybe they see that no-one's going on holidays this year at all.

I think the cruise industry is pretty much sunk.

It's never appealed to me, but I know for some people a multi-stop cruise is what they have enjoyed spending their money on. Speaking to a few of my neighbours, who go on cruises most years, they've completely turned against the idea. The thought of being stuck on a giant floating petri dish for weeks on end has completely scrubbed out any of the perceived benefits in their minds. Especially as they typically fall into the at-risk age group.

It will be many years before the cruise industry recovers, if it ever does. The same goes for the aviation industry, but for different reasons.

I can see non-essential international travel (ie holidays) being one of the last restrictions lifted, along with pubs and other indoor venues where it’s harder to enforce social distancing, as countries keep their borders closed apart from trade.

Even when the back to work order for non-essential sectors is made, I can also see problems for commuters trying to return via the usual packed rush hour trains etc. Who will want to be packed in like sardines again before we know we’re over this via vaccine or herd immunity?

I've been on a few cruises and there have always been problems with illness spreading rapidly, such as norovirus. It is inevitable with that many people in limited space when you also have things like buffets.

This is going to wreck whatever was left of the Southern European economies, and continue to cause tension within the EU. I see the Dutch appear to be voicing disapproval of sharing of the financial burden across the bloc. I suspect more Northern states will follow as they struggle to convince their voters of the benefits.

While I suspect the EU will limp on, following the GFC and migrant crisis, Covid-19 could prove to be too much.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:19 pm I've been on a few cruises and there have always been problems with illness spreading rapidly, such as norovirus. It is inevitable with that many people in limited space when you also have things like buffets.

Buffets could well be a thing of the past. The cruise business was absolutely becoming so popular and now many people will think twice. I think we are all going to second guess ourselves about everything going forward.

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:23 pm This is going to wreck whatever was left of the Southern European economies, and continue to cause tension within the EU. I see the Dutch appear to be voicing disapproval of sharing of the financial burden across the bloc. I suspect more Northern states will follow as they struggle to convince their voters of the benefits.

While I suspect the EU will limp on, following the GFC and migrant crisis, Covid-19 could prove to be too much.

I agree. Seeing tiny things happening that are undermining whats currently in place. One big one was Italy not getting much of anything from EU when it most needed it and relying on China. At what point do they think, whats the point?

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:31 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:23 pm This is going to wreck whatever was left of the Southern European economies, and continue to cause tension within the EU. I see the Dutch appear to be voicing disapproval of sharing of the financial burden across the bloc. I suspect more Northern states will follow as they struggle to convince their voters of the benefits.

While I suspect the EU will limp on, following the GFC and migrant crisis, Covid-19 could prove to be too much.

I agree. Seeing tiny things happening that are undermining whats currently in place. One big one was Italy not getting much of anything from EU when it most needed it and relying on China. At what point do they think, whats the point?

Russia was acting the bollox there too in Italy, pretending to be some kinda world superpower by sending some aid and telling the world they don't have a Coronavirus problem. They have been sowing discord for years all over the world and have been harvesting the right wing in Italy. They done the same in the UK and the US. They are still at it and they want to rip the world alliances apart. Look at the clown they helped become the President in the US. Nothing to worry about!

589* Deaths today still lots of people dying as we have come to expect from this horrible virus- But on the face of a reduction of numbers that seems to be a sign that the lockdown is having an effect, however lets see if we get numbers tapering down over the next couple of days before we can say that for sure.

*Still waiting NI figure for today.

Daily deaths going down into the 500's now, from a high in the 800's.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:29 pm

Daily deaths going down into the 500's now, from a high in the 800's.

Imagine, if you take a step back and we are now down to thinking it's great that we only have deaths in the 500's. Who could have imagined this a year ago?

Its still a lot, but heading in the right direction.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:13 am

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:07 am

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:06 am

Not sure what this means? How are they artificial?

The deaths and infections are only stabilising (sort of) because these measures are in place.

Prove it.

Is that a Trump Quote ?

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:11 pm 589* Deaths today still lots of people dying as we have come to expect from this horrible virus- But on the face of a reduction of numbers that seems to be a sign that the lockdown is having an effect, however lets see if we get numbers tapering down over the next couple of days before we can say that for sure.

*Still waiting NI figure for today.

I see a figure of 638 reported. It could be along time before everybody gets true and accurate figures.

Woke overload

RoryRocks wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:11 pm

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:11 pm 589* Deaths today still lots of people dying as we have come to expect from this horrible virus- But on the face of a reduction of numbers that seems to be a sign that the lockdown is having an effect, however lets see if we get numbers tapering down over the next couple of days before we can say that for sure.

*Still waiting NI figure for today.

I see a figure of 638 reported. It could be along time before everybody gets true and accurate figures.

616 hospital deaths in UK. Total 18,738

Yes 616 but falling slightly on previous day but there is now some clear evidence emerging that lockdown is starting to work. Hospitalisations down 10% on the same time last week and critical care bed occupation has fallen to less than 50%. Deaths will fall as long as this progress is maintained although again there will be a lag before they fall consistently.