Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Initially all the lockdown did was send all the people who were infected back to their households to spread it around there. The incubation period is on average 5 days but it's thought to be up to 14 days. Someone goes home infected but non symptomatic, a week later they get symptoms, they spread it to their household after a couple of days, and then it's another week before they get symptoms. Most people if they are going to get seriously ill need hospital a week to 10 days later. Hospitals are then very good at keeping people alive even if they aren't going to recover, the people I know who have died have been in hospital about a week. That's your four week period accounted for.

The other reason is just the maths of it. As the number of people infected increases they need to each infect less people for the number to keep rising. For simplicity 10 people are infected and each pass on to 2 people, 30 people have it at that point, increase of 20. 30 people pass it on to 1 person each, 60 people then have it, increase of 30.

I hope and think we will see numbers start to fall consistently very soon, but it's still going to mean hundreds of deaths a day more for weeks more. The idea of a peak and back to normal quickly isn't realistic.

I agree with MM.

The number of those hospitalised is falling in London but going up in other areas, London seems to have peaked before other areas of the country. Overall numbers in hospital have fallen this week by a few hundred, it follows that ICU cases should fall along with deaths but there is a lag. I think it would take between 21- 28 days to fully break down the chain of the spread and things to start to improve.

I expected to see hospitalisations fall by more this week, we'll see what the figures are for today and hear what the scientists say, don't forget lockdown has taken about 6 weeks in Italy before numbers have fallen noticeably.

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:06 pm There will be a difference between countries and I don't think you can translate what is happening in Ireland to here. A sweeping generalisation but the difference in the health system and role of private insurance in Ireland means that more care homes there have nursing staff and take on a clinical roles that we wouldn't expect here. The unpicking of differences between countries will keep academics busy for years to come but picking a number from one country and using it to make a point about somewhere else isn't useful.

Yes but the Irish Government took over the running of the private hospitals for the duration of the Pandemic. Perhaps, it will lead to a one tiered health system in Ireland.

I pity the front line workers, they were let down so badly in the UK. If it wasn't for local people and businesses helping out in whatever way they could they would have been screwed. Alot of goodwill was shown by many.

I see the "Conman in Chief" didn't want to entertain any questions about his miracle Malaria drug last night.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Check your own area on the link above

Waltham forest increases pretty much every day
Upto 663 cases confirmed today

A steady rise of 6 or 7 per day for the last couple of days .

That is down on the biggest jump , but needs to come down more

The UK is still away behind in Testing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Interesting article on how Germany reacted so well to the virus outbreak.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... rd-journey

Speed of reaction, decisions taken nearer the coal face, over 4 times as many ICU beds at the start and testing, testing, testing

Forgive a brief "look at me" (actually, look at my Dad), but my Dad at the age of 91 appears (touch wood) to have got past the worst with Covid-19. He went into hospital a couple of weeks ago from his care home, thankfully didn't need a ventilator, and was back in the home within a week. Test result came back positive after he was back and settled. Slowly recovering, seems like it will take a while for him to get back to how he was (which was getting a bit frail anyway), but as always the home are looking after him well.

Lovely to hear that he's getting better and didn't need the Ventilator, AP - I'm sure it'll be slow going but glad to hear he's on the mend. Do send my best to your Dad, please (and from my Dad)

I can't see any improvement in the near future unless the lockdown is made more severe , far too many people on the streets acting like nothing's happening

BIGRON wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:08 pm I can't see any improvement in the near future unless the lockdown is made more severe , far too many people on the streets acting like nothing's happening

Except for things actually are improving.

BIGRON wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:08 pm I can't see any improvement in the near future unless the lockdown is made more severe , far too many people on the streets acting like nothing's happening

How long would you lock us down for?

StillSpike wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:45 pm Lovely to hear that he's getting better and didn't need the Ventilator, AP - I'm sure it'll be slow going but glad to hear he's on the mend. Do send my best to your Dad, please (and from my Dad)

Thanks Spike, I'll do that. Hope you and he are keeping safe and well.

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:25 pm

BIGRON wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:08 pm I can't see any improvement in the near future unless the lockdown is made more severe , far too many people on the streets acting like nothing's happening

Except for things actually are improving.

Are they?

Looks like we’re on a permanent plateau.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:11 pm I believe new cases should be the first thing to come down, but they're still in the 4000's.

Should be hospitalisations that come down first but they have stopped reporting the actual numbers saying some hospitals are not providing figures,

The number of new case figures are now skewed IMHO. If we are testing more people each day the only real way to measure if infections are actually increasing or declining is to report the percentage of tests reporting positive. although we have reported 4500 new cases today we may have tested far more people to get that result than the 4500 infections we reported on any given day last week.

Good point

RedO wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:02 pm

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:25 pm

BIGRON wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:08 pm I can't see any improvement in the near future unless the lockdown is made more severe , far too many people on the streets acting like nothing's happening

Except for things actually are improving.

Are they?

Looks like we’re on a permanent plateau.

The plateau itself is an improvement though. Things will hopefully improve further in the next week and continue from there. Fluctuating relatively small base sizes will always have an impact though. Perhaps we're better looking at weekly or rolling weekly data.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:01 pm

BIGRON wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:08 pm I can't see any improvement in the near future unless the lockdown is made more severe , far too many people on the streets acting like nothing's happening

How long would you lock us down for?

As long as it takes

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:37 pm

RedO wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:02 pm

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:25 pm

Except for things actually are improving.

Are they?

Looks like we’re on a permanent plateau.

The plateau itself is an improvement though. Things will hopefully improve further in the next week and continue from there. Fluctuating relatively small base sizes will always have an impact though. Perhaps we're better looking at weekly or rolling weekly data.

It’s not an improvement. It’s just that things aren’t worsening.

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:22 am

Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:37 pm

RedO wrote: ↑Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:02 pm

Are they?

Looks like we’re on a permanent plateau.

The plateau itself is an improvement though. Things will hopefully improve further in the next week and continue from there. Fluctuating relatively small base sizes will always have an impact though. Perhaps we're better looking at weekly or rolling weekly data.

It’s not an improvement. It’s just that things aren’t worsening.

Yes, of course that's right, flawed logic really on my part. But still think it would be better looking at this with larger base sizes to try to minimise data fluctuations.

The numbers are somewhat artificial as well because we have been in lockdown for about 5 weeks.

If you relax restrictions, that number probably starts going up again.

And also because they're not doing enough testing.

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:21 am The numbers are somewhat artificial as well because we have been in lockdown for about 5 weeks.

If you relax restrictions, that number probably starts going up again.

Not sure what this means? How are they artificial?

RedO wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:06 am

Apple Wumble wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:21 am The numbers are somewhat artificial as well because we have been in lockdown for about 5 weeks.

If you relax restrictions, that number probably starts going up again.

Not sure what this means? How are they artificial?

Well, in the sense of people using them to say that lockdown should be eased or should end. The deaths and infections are only stabilising (sort of) because these measures are in place. It's not a good argument for why they should be relaxed, in fact the opposite.

I read a good analogy.

"Well this parachute seems to have slowed my fall sufficiently, so I can probably do without it for the rest of the way down"