Election watch

[Dunners]

Opinium/Observer poll last night gives Tories 19% lead and 47% of the vote.

Smallest Tory lead being predicted by polls so far is about 12%.

Datapraxis also ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election). This is the first big election model seat projection (untested, so yet to see how accurate it is) and predicts Tory majority of 48
(Number of MPs @ Nov 6):

Con 349 (298)
Lab 213 (243)
LD 14 (20)
SNP 49 (35)
Plaid 5 (4)
Green 1 (1)
Speaker 1 (1)
“Independent” (29)
Others (19)

So far Cummings' strategy would appear to be working. I know polls are increasingly unreliable, but I'd have thought Labour would have needed to reduce the Tory lead to 10% by now to be in with a realistic chance. Anything other than a Tory government on 13 December will be one of the biggest election shocks ever.

Oh well, there's always 2024/25.

[Eat The Rich]

Opinium/Observer poll last night gives Tories 19% lead and 47% of the vote.

Smallest Tory lead being predicted by polls so far is about 12%.

Datapraxis also ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election). This is the first big election model seat projection (untested, so yet to see how accurate it is) and predicts Tory majority of 48
(Number of MPs @ Nov 6):

Con 349 (298)
Lab 213 (243)
LD 14 (20)
SNP 49 (35)
Plaid 5 (4)
Green 1 (1)
Speaker 1 (1)
“Independent” (29)
Others (19)

So far Cummings' strategy would appear to be working. I know polls are increasingly unreliable, but I'd have thought Labour would have needed to reduce the Tory lead to 10% by now to be in with a realistic chance. Anything other than a Tory government on 13 December will be one of the biggest election shocks ever.

Oh well, there's always 2024/25.

Weighting is everything. I don't know these surveys are weighted so I have no idea how close to representative they are but in general polling companies are way off. As I've said before nationally it underestimates Labour but locally it tends to overestimate the margin for incumbents which affects all parties.

[Dunners]

They'll all have a margin of error. Which is why I think one, at least, would need to be indicating the Tory lead down to 10% for Labour to have a realistic chance. But they're not.

Anyway, it doesn't really matter what the polls say at this stage.

[Eat The Rich]

They'll all have a margin of error. Which is why I think one, at least, would need to be indicating the Tory lead down to 10% for Labour to have a realistic chance. But they're not.

Anyway, it doesn't really matter what the polls say at this stage.

Urgh. You know when you spend a good while writing a considered and thoughtful response only to have the website delete it...

Yeh, that. I'm not typing it out again. Sod that.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

I definitely believe these surveys. Just look back to June 2017.

[Thor]

Like I said before my mp said tory he predicted a 30 seat majority, seems he could be right based on the above.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Like I said before my mp said tory he predicted a 30 seat majority, seems he could be right based on the above.

Same as June 2017

[Dunners]

I definitely believe these surveys. Just look back to June 2017.

I've read some analysis that the raw data behind the latest Observer poll is almost identical to what they had in 2017. And the interviews were conducted up to just before the Friday televised debate.

You could be right; there could be hope yet.

[Thor]

Britain's Chief Rabbi attacks Labour's anti-Semitic 'poison' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... e-masthead

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Must be closing that gap in the polls.

[Thor]

The same paper reports in one article the gap is closing and in another is predicting a 68 seat majority.

[Dunners]

Must be closing that gap in the polls.

I said after the last debate, watch the reaction. If the focus remained on Brexit, then that implied the Tory's research and analysis suggested they had nothing to worry about. If it was on something else, then it suggests Cummings is worried.

They're worried.

[Dunners]

ICM Research poll, 22-25 November (changes since 15-18 November):

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LD: 13% (-)
BXP: 4% (-1)

Difficult to say how this would translate into seats, but consensus is that a gap of less than 10% puts us back into hung parliament territory. Direction of travel not looking good for the Tories.

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

This antisemitism slur is all they’ve got left. But early to be playing their trump card.

[Dunners]

It could be effective. At first it was part of a strategy to split Corbyn's support within the Labour membership. The majority of the electorate were never going to factor it into their decision on who to vote for.

But now it's being implied by certain 'influencers' on social media that antisemitism is a consequence of Islamification of the Labour party at local levels. And that will play out well with certain voters where results are expected to be tight.

[Max B Gold]

2.8 million new voters now registered. Thats 1M more than at this stage last time. This is what casts doubt on the pollsters methodology because they fail to account for it.

As the polls narrow it looks like Jerry has it in the bag.

[greyhound]

2.8 million new voters now registered. Thats 1M more than at this stage last time. This is what casts doubt on the pollsters methodology because they fail to account for it.

As the polls narrow it looks like Jerry has it in the bag.

[Eat The Rich]

2.8 million new voters now registered. Thats 1M more than at this stage last time. This is what casts doubt on the pollsters methodology because they fail to account for it.

As the polls narrow it looks like Jerry has it in the bag.

Look, I don't think Labour can win but as Maxy points out, what is happening is precisely what the pollsters models factors out. Huge numbers of Labour voters are registering. How do we know this? Because Tory voters tend to be politically engaged (i.e - regular voters) and registered. The non-voters tend to be poorer, younger or from immigrant backgrounds which make them statistically far more likely to vote Labour if they decide to take part. The pollsters expressly do not consider this when making their models, in fact they specifically exclude it from their model. Corbyn can't win a majority, in my opinion, but he can claw back some ground in terms of seats which would completely hobble Boris before he starts.

The question analysts have to ask when considering the election outcome is how much growth potential do the parties have? The Libderals have lots because they're at a fairly low base. Labour have a smidge of growth left if they can mobilise the non-vote (which appears to be happening) and the Tories don't really have many places to move because there aren't that many people who haven't voted Tory in the last two elections that would consider doing so now. I don't think that that is a biased or partisan assessment. Where is the reserve army of voters for the Tories? it would appear from the data that Brexit party voters are not breaking for the Tories in anything like significant enough numbers to unseat Labour MPs in the Tories target seats. I personally think there will be a bigger bleed from the Tories to the liberals than from Labour to the liberals.

Putting my neck on the line I am going to predict that we get a slightly tighter result than last time with some unpredictable results thrown into the mix. Tories will be in a pickle and Labour will have made just enough progress to keep pressing on with the current strategy but probably with Corbyn passing the torch over during the next parliament.

[Eat The Rich]

The interesting thing I read about Brexit voters is the by and large they love the re-nationalisation stuff and I think they'll also approve of much of the Labour manifesto. Boris' deal and Farage's calamitous climb-down has in effect given BP voters permission to vote in this election on issues other than Brexit.

[F*ck The Poor & Fat]

Opinium/Observer poll last night gives Tories 19% lead and 47% of the vote.

Smallest Tory lead being predicted by polls so far is about 12%.

Datapraxis also ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election). This is the first big election model seat projection (untested, so yet to see how accurate it is) and predicts Tory majority of 48
(Number of MPs @ Nov 6):

Con 349 (298)
Lab 213 (243)
LD 14 (20)
SNP 49 (35)
Plaid 5 (4)
Green 1 (1)
Speaker 1 (1)
“Independent” (29)
Others (19)

So far Cummings' strategy would appear to be working. I know polls are increasingly unreliable, but I'd have thought Labour would have needed to reduce the Tory lead to 10% by now to be in with a realistic chance. Anything other than a Tory government on 13 December will be one of the biggest election shocks ever.

Oh well, there's always 2024/25.

Does that take into consideration students voting twice? Or indeed more Labour bribes that no doubt will emerge post manifesto.

[F*ck The Poor & Fat]

The interesting thing I read about Brexit voters is the by and large they love the re-nationalisation stuff and I think they'll also approve of much of the Labour manifesto. Boris' deal and Farage's calamitous climb-down has in effect given BP voters permission to vote in this election on issues other than Brexit.

Nationalisation is an attractive policy, providing it is costed carefully, doesn’t cause an explosion of borrowing and limited to a key area to start with. Once proven to work, roll out over many many years. And doesn’t divert money away from other things, which of course it must do. Not even Labour can spend the same money twice, despite their belief they can.

But I don’t like the gimmicks like free broadband for all. I still don’t know exactly what that means but does suggest the profits aimed at paying off the borrowing will not materialise.

No problem with the policy, every problem with the cost and timeframe of implementation.

[Bluecap]

Who cares a sh*t you have all made your minds up.

[Thor]

Corbyn the disaster zone, oh dearly me.

Corbynistas admit leader's interview with Andrew Neil was 'horrific' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... e-masthead

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

That image of messages is their news piece.

Last two weeks and this sort of bullshit is going to be ramped up even further.

[jamespevans]

Opinium/Observer poll last night gives Tories 19% lead and 47% of the vote.

Smallest Tory lead being predicted by polls so far is about 12%.

Datapraxis also ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election). This is the first big election model seat projection (untested, so yet to see how accurate it is) and predicts Tory majority of 48
(Number of MPs @ Nov 6):

Con 349 (298)
Lab 213 (243)
LD 14 (20)
SNP 49 (35)
Plaid 5 (4)
Green 1 (1)
Speaker 1 (1)
“Independent” (29)
Others (19)

So far Cummings' strategy would appear to be working. I know polls are increasingly unreliable, but I'd have thought Labour would have needed to reduce the Tory lead to 10% by now to be in with a realistic chance. Anything other than a Tory government on 13 December will be one of the biggest election shocks ever.

Oh well, there's always 2024/25.

Does that take into consideration students voting twice? Or indeed more Labour bribes that no doubt will emerge post manifesto.

Stop being intentionally thick. Students can't vote twice