Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:30 pm Still 4600 new infections in last 24 hours. Like the deaths, its not increasing but we need it to go down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

That number has been steady for few days with the odd blip up and down, next week you would hope to see some obvious reductions in numbers.

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:39 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:30 pm Still 4600 new infections in last 24 hours. Like the deaths, its not increasing but we need it to go down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Maybe the majority just had pre-existing health conditions.

Yes we know they did, they had on average 2.7 conditions each.

BoniO wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:19 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:02 pm https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201

More than 9 in 10 people who have died had an underlying health condition, yet we ALL have to stay under lockdown.

And your point is? We all know that lockdown is reducing the load on the NHS - which is keeping the mortality rate down by allowing patients who need it access to ICU.

Secondly, the BBC has just modified this story. I saw it earlier today and whereas the "91% had other underlying health conditions" is unchanged, the earlier report also stated that over 80% of all deaths were still attributed to Coronanvirus as the primary cause of death. Why did they remove that last telling point?

Great points. Some people are just plain selfish and couldn't care less if the health services are overrun leading to a huge spike in mortality for people who can't get the essential equipment and care. It will only hit home when it visits their door. Hopefully, when it's safe to do so and when social distancing can be guaranteed they will be able to get some people back to work. They simply can't do it until they can manage it properly. You need to be able to do rapid testing and isolating otherwise you will end up with new hot spots popping up all over the country. The UK is nowhere near the Testing capacity that is needed to reopen. At the moment the UK has tested about 6000 people for every million people. Imagine India have only tested about 200 for every Million. The most tested people per head of population is Iceland. They have tested the equivalent of 110,000 per million. Obviously, they don't have 1 million people but this is the system that all countries need to get too.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


This is no vacation. It's not fun for anybody.

As well as the angry libertarian brigade demanding social Darwinism takes its course & an immediate end to lockdown, I notice a steadily increasing trickle of articles suggesting it could be a couple of years rather than months before we get on top of this and fully get back to normal. Bloody hell (either way).

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:56 pm

Real Al wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:43 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:26 pm Feels unfair on healthy folk like myself. The longer this goes on, the more painful the recovery will be.

"Mum, mum. Can you show me what 'a lack of empathy' means."

I just have empathy with different people to you. Can you imagine if the tables were turned and this virus mainly affected young people? You think old folk would be in favour of a lockdown for months?

Yes, they would.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:45 pm

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:39 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:30 pm Still 4600 new infections in last 24 hours. Like the deaths, its not increasing but we need it to go down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Maybe the majority just had pre-existing health conditions.

Yes we know they did, they had on average 2.7 conditions each.

Ive wondered if our dear departed Manager had still been around ,
Whether he would have suffered , being that he had an underlying Health Condition.

Still i suppose some people wouldnt be to bothered

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:40 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:30 pm Still 4600 new infections in last 24 hours. Like the deaths, its not increasing but we need it to go down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

That number has been steady for few days with the odd blip up and down, next week you would hope to see some obvious reductions in numbers.

Obviously I'd hope to see a reduction, but maybe that's now the "steady state" rate of new infections. We've been under lockdown now for these all to have been contracted during lockdown (haven't we - I think so but happy to be corrected), so doesn't that logically follow that we've reached a plateau that'll only reduce once immunity increases (or there's a vaccine) ?

In other words, with the (albeit reduced) amount of social contact that's still going on in the country (supermarkets, deliveries, essential work, etc) the virus will continue to spread at a level that created 4600 hospital infections.

Or have I (hopefully) got virology all wrong?

Here's one of the eeyore pieces I referred to, spike. That may be an at the gloomy end answer to your question.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-pandemic

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:49 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:45 pm

NuneatonO's wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:39 pm
Maybe the majority just had pre-existing health conditions.

Yes we know they did, they had on average 2.7 conditions each.

Ive wondered if our dear departed Manager had still been around ,
Whether he would have suffered , being that he had an underlying Health Condition.

Still i suppose some people wouldnt be to bothered

Did he? Evidence?

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:13 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:49 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:45 pm

Yes we know they did, they had on average 2.7 conditions each.

Ive wondered if our dear departed Manager had still been around ,
Whether he would have suffered , being that he had an underlying Health Condition.

Still i suppose some people wouldnt be to bothered

Did he? Evidence?

He was alive & well one day
And not the next .

Evidence enough ?

slacker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:02 pm Here's one of the eeyore pieces I referred to, spike. That may be an at the gloomy end answer to your question.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-pandemic

Thanks - I think.

The numbers are bloody scary - hence, I guess, why the instinct is to question them.

StillSpike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:53 pm

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:40 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:30 pm Still 4600 new infections in last 24 hours. Like the deaths, its not increasing but we need it to go down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

That number has been steady for few days with the odd blip up and down, next week you would hope to see some obvious reductions in numbers.

Obviously I'd hope to see a reduction, but maybe that's now the "steady state" rate of new infections. We've been under lockdown now for these all to have been contracted during lockdown (haven't we - I think so but happy to be corrected), so doesn't that logically follow that we've reached a plateau that'll only reduce once immunity increases (or there's a vaccine) ?

In other words, with the (albeit reduced) amount of social contact that's still going on in the country (supermarkets, deliveries, essential work, etc) the virus will continue to spread at a level that created 4600 hospital infections.

Or have I (hopefully) got virology all wrong?

Should be a time lag for the effect to come through. I think next week the full effect of lockdown should be seen but you are right because of emergency workers and others who have to be out and about it will still be in the community. The numbers in hospital has fallen 3% in the last 24 hours and this should continue to fall. Followed by ICU beds. The Infection rate (the R rate is now calculated as 1 down from 2.6) It looks like infection rate is past its peak and the hospital admissions ICU and death rates should follow.

StillSpike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:16 pm

slacker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:02 pm Here's one of the eeyore pieces I referred to, spike. That may be an at the gloomy end answer to your question.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-pandemic

Thanks - I think.

The numbers are bloody scary - hence, I guess, why the instinct is to question them.

Surely those figures will fall as the strain dies becuase of isolation.

If an infection passes through & carriers become immune then all
Of the virus will eventually die

slacker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:46 pm As well as the angry libertarian brigade demanding social Darwinism takes its course & an immediate end to lockdown, I notice a steadily increasing trickle of articles suggesting it could be a couple of years rather than months before we get on top of this and fully get back to normal. Bloody hell (either way).

Very likely Slacker that we will never completely rid ourselves of Covid, it might like flu become a seasonal factor of life until we have a vaccine that works, its mass produced and mass vacinations take place I can't see a full return to life as it was. No one knows if there will be any major mutations which could effect future outbreaks, that said mutations do not necessarily mean it will become more deadly it might actually become less potent.

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:27 pm

slacker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:46 pm As well as the angry libertarian brigade demanding social Darwinism takes its course & an immediate end to lockdown, I notice a steadily increasing trickle of articles suggesting it could be a couple of years rather than months before we get on top of this and fully get back to normal. Bloody hell (either way).

Very likely Slacker that we will never completely rid ourselves of Covid, it might like flu become a seasonal factor of life until we have a vaccine that works, its mass produced and mass vacinations take place I can't see a full return to life as it was. No one knows if there will be any major mutations which could effect future outbreaks, that said mutations do not necessarily mean it will become more deadly it might actually become less potent.

There's definitely a drip-feeding of this viewpoint in the media. It feels as if we're being warmed up to help udjust our expectations. Today's probably been the most fed up I've been with the whole thing.

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:14 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:13 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:49 pm

Ive wondered if our dear departed Manager had still been around ,
Whether he would have suffered , being that he had an underlying Health Condition.

Still i suppose some people wouldnt be to bothered

Did he? Evidence?

He was alive & well one day
And not the next .

Evidence enough ?

No

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:17 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:14 pm

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:13 pm

Did he? Evidence?

He was alive & well one day
And not the next .

Evidence enough ?

No

Well then
"A healthy man with no pre existing medical
conditions", as was reported in all news coverage at the time should suffice.

Now you're saying the opposite to what you claimed earlier.

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:19 pm

StillSpike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:53 pm

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:40 pm


That number has been steady for few days with the odd blip up and down, next week you would hope to see some obvious reductions in numbers.

Obviously I'd hope to see a reduction, but maybe that's now the "steady state" rate of new infections. We've been under lockdown now for these all to have been contracted during lockdown (haven't we - I think so but happy to be corrected), so doesn't that logically follow that we've reached a plateau that'll only reduce once immunity increases (or there's a vaccine) ?

In other words, with the (albeit reduced) amount of social contact that's still going on in the country (supermarkets, deliveries, essential work, etc) the virus will continue to spread at a level that created 4600 hospital infections.

Or have I (hopefully) got virology all wrong?

Should be a time lag for the effect to come through. I think next week the full effect of lockdown should be seen but you are right because of emergency workers and others who have to be out and about it will still be in the community. The numbers in hospital has fallen 3% in the last 24 hours and this should continue to fall. Followed by ICU beds. The Infection rate (the R rate is now calculated as 1 down from 2.6) It looks like infection rate is past its peak and the hospital admissions ICU and death rates should follow.

Someone on here reckoned it takes around two weeks to go from infected to hospitalised. Been on lockdown for three weeks.

So if the government had locked down a week earlier, we'd have nowhere near the level of deaths....?

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:31 pm Now you're saying the opposite to what you claimed earlier.

No
You are reading what i am saying incorrectly

JE didnt know anything about it
Just as the Doctors wouldnt have.

Anybody can get covid & have no underlying H.C
Then boom Cardiac arrest happens.

Still as long as its only 1 in 10 who are not
old or have Underlyig health problems..

The only death I know of (2nd hand I admit) was a healthy 29 yo lady who had no health issues and was recovering from the worst of C-19 went into CA.

CA does not need any underlying heart condition. It is what it says on the tin ... the heart stops. It is a worse position to be in than a Heart Attack when the ol ticker goes into into panic mode due to it being diseased eg clogged arteries.

Orient_Man_And_Boy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:55 pm The only death I know of (2nd hand I admit) was a healthy 29 yo lady who had no health issues and was recovering from the worst of C-19 went into CA.

CA does not need any underlying heart condition. It is what it says on the tin ... the heart stops. It is a worse position to be in than a Heart Attack when the ol ticker goes into into panic mode due to it being diseased eg clogged arteries.

My point exactly about CA


Underlying health will be higher

Still means that people without are at risk.

Think of it this way.

We all have cancer cells but
Not all of us will die from it or even develop it.

RoryRocks wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:31 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:33 pm Fox news making a laughing stock of themselves as usual.

Sure they are not even a News channel. They fought a lawsuit to state they are an Entertainment channel.

On a secondary note, could you imagine the dire situation if there was no social distancing and lockdown?

For your answer look at Sweden.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:07 pm

RoryRocks wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:31 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:33 pm Fox news making a laughing stock of themselves as usual.

Sure they are not even a News channel. They fought a lawsuit to state they are an Entertainment channel.

On a secondary note, could you imagine the dire situation if there was no social distancing and lockdown?

For your answer look at Sweden.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailym ... erday.html