Independent Leyton Orient Forum

This is not about labour. It's about debt.

Government's around the world hold over twice the debt held at the last financial crises. To balance this has been through historically low interest rates. So interest on new debt is currently at low levels.

When interest rates normalise - say 7%, debt payments will increase rapidly as debt becomes payable and new finance agreed to pay for it.

This will possibly happen when we go into recession. The banks won't lend to any risky proposition without a large interest rate. Liquidity tightens and banks will start to call in debts or refuseto give extensions, which is normal. Interbank Interest rates rise. The governments will probably use QE at this point, which worked last time. But this time we may need much more QE.

Now the point I am coming to is if a large debtor, such as Italy, defaults on its debt. This will have such huge global implications that a more severe recession, around the world is likely to occur.

If you want to understand the problem, look at Argentina, who has been too highly bailed out by the IMF, by the EUs new head of the ECB. Inflation is now running at 50%, with the country likely to default on it's debt, for the 3rd time in recent history. This is a small hit, but someone like Italy would be a different matter altogether.

So the fact the tories have doubled our debt in the last 9 years to record levels is a bad thing then? Maybe we should vote them out or something.

RedO wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:56 pm But it wouldn’t be spent elsewhere. They’d persist with tax cuts for the richest.

The economy has been choked, all in the name of ‘austerity’. Meanwhile the richest have got richer, doubling their wealth in this period, so it’s not all bad.

The term austerity is used to show that the public sector has had it's budget reduced. The private sector just has to get on with whatever is happening.

However, if we lived like this the banks would pull the rug. If you went to your bank each year and asked if you could have another loan, as i cannot afford to continue to live the way I do without it. You know that after about 5 years, they would start to push for you to control your debt. As a country we have not done this for the last 16 years. QE has made holding debt more affordable. But, this central bank experiment (world over), may suddenly unwind. Then we are all in the proverbial.

The thing that has allowed the divide between rich and poor to increase has not been tax cuts, but low interest rates and QE(increasing financial liquidity to the few not the many).

RedO wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:17 pm So the fact the tories have doubled our debt in the last 9 years to record levels is a bad thing then? Maybe we should vote them out or something.

There financial management has been poor.

What we now see is that the election comes down to the stark choice:

a.) Vote Tory to keep Johnson in No.10. That is his lifelong ambition. He gambled the country's future in order to achieve his personal ambition. In 2016 he opted to support Leave, having calculated that's his best chance for the top job …. While in May's government he did everything to undermine her. Ultimately he doesn't give XXXX about the country, he just has the overwhelming desire to act as Churchill MK II. His manifesto is bland and even then it has many deceptions (for example that promise for 50000 nurses doesn't stand up to even simple scrutiny). I suspect that his sole focus is on 12th December. If he gets the top job, even that flimsy manifesto will be just a door stop.
He and Queen Carrie (if she is still around) will be off on a handwaving regal tour.

b.) Vote Labour to get our country out of the depressing grip that our politics have become. Vote for hope! Yes, Labour won't be able to achieve all the ambitions within the first term of office - but even only 25% will make a mega difference to many of us.

c.) Vote LibDem if in your constituency LibDems have the most realistic chance to unseat a Tory.

Re c.) . Never vote Lib Dem under any circumstances. They are also Tories but a little less right wing.

It's being reported that National Grid and SSE have transferred ownership in to holding companies in Luxembourg and Hong Kong. It is also said that the water companies are planning on doing the same.

The move would ensure that any government purchase would now be at full price and not a discount to it's current share price or value. The business leaders are ensuring that their legal obligations to the shareholders are fulfilled.

Interesting move.

The Chief Rabbi hits out at Labour and Corbyn specifically for the anti-semitism rampant in the party. As he's Jewish I assume he knows what he's talking about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50552068

The Zinoviev letter redux.

Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:32 am The Zinoviev letter redux.

Oh no, not another holocaust denier. Your name has been added to ze list.

StockholmO wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:05 am The Chief Rabbi hits out at Labour and Corbyn specifically for the anti-semitism rampant in the party. As he's Jewish I assume he knows what he's talking about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50552068

Your assumption is incorrect. That Chief Rabbi's diatribe is party political.
It seems that he really wants a Tory government, even when it's led by a known racist and person dishonest and self-serving.

StockholmO wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:05 am The Chief Rabbi hits out at Labour and Corbyn specifically for the anti-semitism rampant in the party. As he's Jewish I assume he knows what he's talking about.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50552068

There is no rampant anti semitism in the Labour party, as well you know. These smears won't work, because people have woken up to the rights mischievous shenanigans.
As for the chief rabbi, he's a Conservative, and a friend of Boris Johnson, so this is a political move.
Did a little research online tonight and found his congratulatory statement when Johnson won the Tory leadership.

StockholmO wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:09 am

Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:32 am The Zinoviev letter redux.

Oh no, not another holocaust denier. Your name has been added to ze list.

That's a very serious accusation. I presume you're currently formulating your apology as we speak.