Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Irrelevant

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -ceasefire

Apparently Labour HQ is starting to get seriously concerned about how much the situation in Gaza and Labour's response to it might impact on Muslim voters. Talk of multiple Galloway in Bethnal Green seat situations.

Obligatory caveat that I'm not a big Starmer fan, but it's an impossible situation for him, even if his comments about shafting Gaza were thick. He will have zero influence on what happens right now, has the baggage of his predecessor describing the group who carried out the original atrocities as 'friends', and is trying to position himself as a future leader of the UK, which not alienating allies before even getting to no.10 by running counter to what every single country close to the UK is publicly saying.

I hope most Muslims realise that Hamas has to go.

A ceasefire sounds great, but then what? It seems a bit rich to me to slaughter 1400 people then call for a ceasefire. Civilians are being killed in bombings, but then Hamas knew that would happen.

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 10:53 am https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -ceasefire

Apparently Labour HQ is starting to get seriously concerned about how much the situation in Gaza and Labour's response to it might impact on Muslim voters. Talk of multiple Galloway in Bethnal Green seat situations.

Obligatory caveat that I'm not a big Starmer fan, but it's an impossible situation for him, even if his comments about shafting Gaza were thick. He will have zero influence on what happens right now, has the baggage of his predecessor describing the group who carried out the original atrocities as 'friends', and is trying to position himself as a future leader of the UK, which not alienating allies before even getting to no.10 by running counter to what every single country close to the UK is publicly saying.

It just shows you how shallow Starmer is. Had it been a few years ago when Corbyn was ‘flavour of the month’ then he would have been a different tune. He is actually playing the gamble of his life for many reasons you say.

Starmer will suffer at the polls next year because of his strong pro Israel stance that's for sure. How much he suffers we can't tell, but there will be an effect.
There are around 5½ million Muslims in Britain, and lots of them will not vote for such a pro zionist party. In close run seats, it will make a difference.

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 10:53 am https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -ceasefire

Apparently Labour HQ is starting to get seriously concerned about how much the situation in Gaza and Labour's response to it might impact on Muslim voters. Talk of multiple Galloway in Bethnal Green seat situations.

Obligatory caveat that I'm not a big Starmer fan, but it's an impossible situation for him, even if his comments about shafting Gaza were thick. He will have zero influence on what happens right now, has the baggage of his predecessor describing the group who carried out the original atrocities as 'friends', and is trying to position himself as a future leader of the UK, which not alienating allies before even getting to no.10 by running counter to what every single country close to the UK is publicly saying.

His influence on this is zero which is why it's so bewildering to have taken the position(s) he has so far. It's pretty much a given that he's going to shadow whatever Biden and then Sunak say / do.

None of this should come as a surprise from a politician who since 2015 has demonstrated an ability to be a completely unprincipled political weather-vane. Which is why he'll be Prime Minister soon.

Did you know his father was a tool-maker?

We already know the result of aligning with the left. Hold firm, Sir Kier.

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:02 am I hope most Muslims realise that Hamas has to go.

A ceasefire sounds great, but then what? It seems a bit rich to me to slaughter 1400 people then call for a ceasefire. Civilians are being killed in bombings, but then Hamas knew that would happen.

I suspect that both protagonists knew exactly what would happen when Hamas launched that attack. Which is why Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th. Neither Hamas nor Netanyahu have any interest in a long-term peace.

A ceasefire would at least hypothetically present the opportunity for hostages to be released safely or the international community to pressure both sides to enter into negotiations. At the bare minimum it'll stop any further innocent civilians being killed in Gaza.

Sadly, the damage was already done early on in this conflict with the US, EU and GB governments effectively writing Israel a blank cheque which it's now cashing in by ethnically cleansing Gaza.

Blinken has already this week been attempting to get Israel to modify it's methods in Gaza - efforts which in the main Israel is ignoring. In 3 weeks they've gone from denying the allegation they bombed a hospital to now just openly bombing hospitals and ambulance convoys.

I can't speak for Muslims in Gaza or in the UK - all I can say is that I have a lot of UK based Muslim clients and colleagues and all have expressed a deep hatred of Hamas and disgust at the attack on 7th October.

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:53 pm We already know the result of aligning with the left. Hold firm, Sir Kier.

Which was what exactly?

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:03 pm

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:53 pm We already know the result of aligning with the left. Hold firm, Sir Kier.

Which was what exactly?

Losing two elections. But thats for another thread.

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:08 pm

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:03 pm

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:53 pm We already know the result of aligning with the left. Hold firm, Sir Kier.

Which was what exactly?

Losing two elections. But thats for another thread.

Good to see how well those centerist / right-wingers have done with the UK since 2019. What we all need is more of the same.

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:02 pm

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:02 am I hope most Muslims realise that Hamas has to go.

A ceasefire sounds great, but then what? It seems a bit rich to me to slaughter 1400 people then call for a ceasefire. Civilians are being killed in bombings, but then Hamas knew that would happen.

I suspect that both protagonists knew exactly what would happen when Hamas launched that attack. Which is why Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th. Neither Hamas nor Netanyahu have any interest in a long-term peace.

A ceasefire would at least hypothetically present the opportunity for hostages to be released safely or the international community to pressure both sides to enter into negotiations. At the bare minimum it'll stop any further innocent civilians being killed in Gaza.

Sadly, the damage was already done early on in this conflict with the US, EU and GB governments effectively writing Israel a blank cheque which it's now cashing in by ethnically cleansing Gaza.

Blinken has already this week been attempting to get Israel to modify it's methods in Gaza - efforts which in the main Israel is ignoring. In 3 weeks they've gone from denying the allegation they bombed a hospital to now just openly bombing hospitals and ambulance convoys.

I can't speak for Muslims in Gaza or in the UK - all I can say is that I have a lot of UK based Muslim clients and colleagues and all have expressed a deep hatred of Hamas and disgust at the attack on 7th October.

I don't think that's a good reading of what happened at the Israeli end. This was their worst ever national disaster and will have finished Netanyahu. It seems way way more plausible to me that Egypt's warning was made but the chaos within the Israeli state due to the judicial reforms being rammed through and opposed made it incapable of acting or relaying that information in a way that could allow it to meaningfully respond.

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:02 pm

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:02 am I hope most Muslims realise that Hamas has to go.

A ceasefire sounds great, but then what? It seems a bit rich to me to slaughter 1400 people then call for a ceasefire. Civilians are being killed in bombings, but then Hamas knew that would happen.

I suspect that both protagonists knew exactly what would happen when Hamas launched that attack. Which is why Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th. Neither Hamas nor Netanyahu have any interest in a long-term peace.

A ceasefire would at least hypothetically present the opportunity for hostages to be released safely or the international community to pressure both sides to enter into negotiations. At the bare minimum it'll stop any further innocent civilians being killed in Gaza.

Sadly, the damage was already done early on in this conflict with the US, EU and GB governments effectively writing Israel a blank cheque which it's now cashing in by ethnically cleansing Gaza.

Blinken has already this week been attempting to get Israel to modify it's methods in Gaza - efforts which in the main Israel is ignoring. In 3 weeks they've gone from denying the allegation they bombed a hospital to now just openly bombing hospitals and ambulance convoys.

I can't speak for Muslims in Gaza or in the UK - all I can say is that I have a lot of UK based Muslim clients and colleagues and all have expressed a deep hatred of Hamas and disgust at the attack on 7th October.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory.
As you said, no interest in long term peace, so what use negotiating? Hamas has to go, back to normal not an option.
Understandable. What else could they have done?
Thought it was basically proven that Jihadis rocketed the hospital? Hamas are embedded in civilian buildings.
Good. Expecting mainly a load of white knights on the hate march.

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:21 pm

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:02 pm

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:02 am I hope most Muslims realise that Hamas has to go.

A ceasefire sounds great, but then what? It seems a bit rich to me to slaughter 1400 people then call for a ceasefire. Civilians are being killed in bombings, but then Hamas knew that would happen.

I suspect that both protagonists knew exactly what would happen when Hamas launched that attack. Which is why Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th. Neither Hamas nor Netanyahu have any interest in a long-term peace.

A ceasefire would at least hypothetically present the opportunity for hostages to be released safely or the international community to pressure both sides to enter into negotiations. At the bare minimum it'll stop any further innocent civilians being killed in Gaza.

Sadly, the damage was already done early on in this conflict with the US, EU and GB governments effectively writing Israel a blank cheque which it's now cashing in by ethnically cleansing Gaza.

Blinken has already this week been attempting to get Israel to modify it's methods in Gaza - efforts which in the main Israel is ignoring. In 3 weeks they've gone from denying the allegation they bombed a hospital to now just openly bombing hospitals and ambulance convoys.

I can't speak for Muslims in Gaza or in the UK - all I can say is that I have a lot of UK based Muslim clients and colleagues and all have expressed a deep hatred of Hamas and disgust at the attack on 7th October.

I don't think that's a good reading of what happened at the Israeli end. This was their worst ever national disaster and will have finished Netanyahu. It seems way way more plausible to me that Egypt's warning was made but the chaos within the Israeli state due to the judicial reforms being rammed through and opposed made it incapable of acting or relaying that information in a way that could allow it to meaningfully respond.

Maybe. I'd argue that he looks far from finished at the moment. I'm not sure how judicial reforms stop the Israeli security services from notifying the leadership of an imminent attack? According to the press reports, Egypt claims their intelligence minister warned Netanyahu directly of this - something which he denies.

Because all their military and intelligence top brass were in revolt. Reservists were going on strike. They fired their defence minister in the spring because he opposed the reforms. If anything, Netanyahu is trying to spin the failure to anticipate what happened as a deep state conspiracy to undermine him. And he's immediately been slapped down for that by the unity cabinet.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 023-07-28/ from July this year.

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:22 pm

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 2:02 pm

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:02 am I hope most Muslims realise that Hamas has to go.

A ceasefire sounds great, but then what? It seems a bit rich to me to slaughter 1400 people then call for a ceasefire. Civilians are being killed in bombings, but then Hamas knew that would happen.

I suspect that both protagonists knew exactly what would happen when Hamas launched that attack. Which is why Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th. Neither Hamas nor Netanyahu have any interest in a long-term peace.

A ceasefire would at least hypothetically present the opportunity for hostages to be released safely or the international community to pressure both sides to enter into negotiations. At the bare minimum it'll stop any further innocent civilians being killed in Gaza.

Sadly, the damage was already done early on in this conflict with the US, EU and GB governments effectively writing Israel a blank cheque which it's now cashing in by ethnically cleansing Gaza.

Blinken has already this week been attempting to get Israel to modify it's methods in Gaza - efforts which in the main Israel is ignoring. In 3 weeks they've gone from denying the allegation they bombed a hospital to now just openly bombing hospitals and ambulance convoys.

I can't speak for Muslims in Gaza or in the UK - all I can say is that I have a lot of UK based Muslim clients and colleagues and all have expressed a deep hatred of Hamas and disgust at the attack on 7th October.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory.
As you said, no interest in long term peace, so what use negotiating? Hamas has to go, back to normal not an option.
Understandable. What else could they have done?
Thought it was basically proven that Jihadis rocketed the hospital? Hamas are embedded in civilian buildings.
Good. Expecting mainly a load of white knights on the hate march.

It's not a conspiracy theory - it's a matter that's been widely discussed since the attacks happened. Whatever the reasonings behind it, its indisputable that Netanyahu has used the opportunity to ethnically cleanse and commit war crimes by collectively punishing the Gazan people. This isn't just happening now in Gaza - it's happening in the West Bank.

The US, EU and GB governments could've urged Israel to show restraint. As a minimum they should be calling out Israel for the war crimes committed. The difference in behaviour towards Putin and Israel demonstrates a level of hypocrisy which is staggering.

We all know Hamas's use of civilians - however they don't justify Israel's actions by indeterminately killing civilians and children.

As far as I know the cause of the attack on the Al-Ahli Arab hospital is yet to be determined. C4 has already disproved the Israeli version of events as have other media outlets who've studied the footage. Doesn't mean that Hamas did it, but there's definite proof either way. Since then, Israel has continued to target hospitals and ambulance convoys.

The marches here on saturday will obviously attract the worst in both sides of this argument.

Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th.

Prove it.

The difference in behaviour towards Putin and Israel demonstrates a level of hypocrisy which is staggering.

Not comparable.

How do you defeat Hamas without civilians getting hurt? And dont say 'peace talks'.

As far as I know the cause of the attack on the Al-Ahli Arab hospital is yet to be determined. C4 has already disproved the Israeli version of events as have other media outlets who've studied the footage. Doesn't mean that Hamas did it, but there's definite proof either way. Since then, Israel has continued to target hospitals and ambulance convoys.

There was a lot of evidence that it was a Jihadi group. Have you seen it?

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 12:55 pm Starmer will suffer at the polls next year because of his strong pro Israel stance that's for sure. How much he suffers we can't tell, but there will be an effect.
There are around 5½ million Muslims in Britain, and lots of them will not vote for such a pro zionist party. In close run seats, it will make a difference.

Who will they vote for then? Most parties are pro Israel

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 3:33 pm

Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th.

Prove it.

The difference in behaviour towards Putin and Israel demonstrates a level of hypocrisy which is staggering.

Not comparable.

How do you defeat Hamas without civilians getting hurt? And dont say 'peace talks'.

As far as I know the cause of the attack on the Al-Ahli Arab hospital is yet to be determined. C4 has already disproved the Israeli version of events as have other media outlets who've studied the footage. Doesn't mean that Hamas did it, but there's definite proof either way. Since then, Israel has continued to target hospitals and ambulance convoys.

There was a lot of evidence that it was a Jihadi group. Have you seen it?

I haven't really got the energy - Egypt's claims are widely reported by major news sources.

I don't know how you deal with Hamas but I don't agree this method is the right way. If you're happy just to accept innocent civilians being blown apart whilst western governments cheer Israel on then that's up to you. And you might recall that peace talks was how good friday agreement came about - sooner or later they will have to take place if there's to be a lasting resolution.

There isn't definitive proof either way on the hospital bombing - much of what Israel originally claimed has been questioned by independent media sources and experts. However, only one side as far as i can see is continuing to bomb hospitals daily. And refugee camps. And supposed safe areas in southern gaza.

Admin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 4:23 pm

Long slender neck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 3:33 pm

Israel ignored the intelligence information Egypt provided it with before October 7th.

Prove it.

The difference in behaviour towards Putin and Israel demonstrates a level of hypocrisy which is staggering.

Not comparable.

How do you defeat Hamas without civilians getting hurt? And dont say 'peace talks'.

As far as I know the cause of the attack on the Al-Ahli Arab hospital is yet to be determined. C4 has already disproved the Israeli version of events as have other media outlets who've studied the footage. Doesn't mean that Hamas did it, but there's definite proof either way. Since then, Israel has continued to target hospitals and ambulance convoys.

There was a lot of evidence that it was a Jihadi group. Have you seen it?

I haven't really got the energy - Egypt's claims are widely reported by major news sources.

I don't know how you deal with Hamas but I don't agree this method is the right way. If you're happy just to accept innocent civilians being blown apart whilst western governments cheer Israel on then that's up to you. And you might recall that peace talks was how good friday agreement came about - sooner or later they will have to take place if there's to be a lasting resolution.

There isn't definitive proof either way on the hospital bombing - much of what Israel originally claimed has been questioned by independent media sources and experts. However, only one side as far as i can see is continuing to bomb hospitals daily. And refugee camps. And supposed safe areas in southern gaza.

I get what you mean about not having the energy for this. So this is just my opinion (but based upon my expert geopolitical knowledge, of course).

The hospital incident - For what it's worth, based on what I've seen from people I trust, I believe that it is likely it was not an Israeli strike. But, as Israel has bombed other civilian buildings resulting in death and injury, I think we've reached a point where debating this one incident is pointless.

Hamas - They have stated their intent. Osama Hamdan (a Hamas official), in an interview with Al-Liwaa newspaper, stated that if they could they would repeat the October 7th attacks again. And again. Their aim is aligned with Iran in preventing Israel from being a 'natural entity' in the region. They will not accept peace or agree to a ceasefire.

Ceasefire - there can be no such thing so long as Hamas continues to threaten Israel (and it is still firing rockets). When people ask for a ceasefire, what that means in reality is for Israel to not retaliate when Hamas continues to fire rockets at them (and try and launch other attacks). It's completely unrealistic to expect any country to tolerate that. And, I also agree with Mista's comments on Israeli intelligence failings as being the most likely explanation.

I don't really think any Western government is cheering Israel on. I suspect that behind the scenes they are applying pressure to try and contain things, but they have to maintain a public display of support in the interest of wider-regional cooperation for any chance of a future peaceful settlement. UK Government is genuinely worried about terrorist reprisals here.

Israel is going to do an "Aleppo" or "Kharkiv" on Gaza. No protests are going to stop this now. This means almost total destruction of buildings and infrastructure and displacement of people. Militaries have watched the brutal effectiveness of Russian forces in these two cities and, while it is brutal, it is effective. This is now the default military strategy for dealing with any high-density urban environment.

What happens after is the real worry. We could be looking at 2.5 million displaced people. It is entirely possible that many of those will head (or be guided by Egypt) towards Libya, where they will attempt crossings into Europe. We've already witnessed the political fallout of the Syrian migration crisis, this could be worse. IMO, this is where an occupation and administration of Gaza, not by Israel, but of a cross-Arab state task force, could be the least worst option to rebuild and restore. But this seems unimaginable right now.

Good post, Dunners. Pity the three stooges on this board can"t, won't or are incapable of positive thinking.

Also, another way of looking at things is this...

Out of the following two options, which one is most likely and realistic to achieve a ceasefire:

1. Demanding a ceasefire immediately from the current state of war.

Or

2. Negotiating a "pause" in hostilities to allow humanitarian aid. With these becoming more frequent and prolonged and normalised.

Anyone who genuinely believes in the first option... Well, enjoy your day out on Saturday.

Anyone who believes it is the second option, no matter how much they may wish it was the first... Well, that's pretty much the plan. And is what US Sec. Blinken is hinting at and is supported by most governments (and Labour).

Anyone seriously agitating for a Labour MP to publicly declare for the first option is either deluded or disingenuous in their true intentions and motivations.

For the first 39½ years of Israeli occupation, Hamas did not exist. They formed in December 1987, in Gaza
Hamas is not, and has never been in the West Bank, yet Israelis have murdered over 5,000 Palestinians since 2008, in the West Bank
These are facts, source is UN.
This conflict didn't start on 7th October. International law states that an occupied people can fight back in any way they like, including violent means.
No one in here would like to be a Palestinian in Gaza or West Bank. Their lives are horrendous.

Chicken Dhansak wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 6:28 pm Good post, Dunners. Pity the three stooges on this board can"t, won't or are incapable of positive thinking.

What’s positive about any of this, whatever side you’re on?

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 8:36 pm For the first 39½ years of Israeli occupation, Hamas did not exist. They formed in December 1987, in Gaza
.. These are facts, source is UN...

Israel only controlled Gaza after the 6 Days War in June 1967, Egypt controlled it before that, so first '39½' should read 'first 20'.
So much for 'These are facts, source is UN', and consistent with Hamas' general disregard for the truth: 'We didn't kill civilians'.