Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Looks like this thread has just been given some more legs

Will he bring Gromit with him?

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:04 pm

Redline wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:01 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:42 pm

4
Miliband was hardly hard left

How left he is, like others, a matter of opinion. But he was definitely the wrong brother to get the job. Just how different the political landscape today could look. An opportunity missed, big time, huge, massive. Shame.

So thats 3 elections
Corbyn 2
Miliband 1

Who is the 4th hard left in a row ?


It seems like you are making a claim that the hard left lost 4 elections in a row when quite clearly they havent.

Fair point, Brown wasn’t hard left. So that’s 4 election defeats, 3 by Milliband x1 and Corbyn x 2. So let’s say 3 if it makes you happy. Brown losing was largely due to the Global situation, without which he may well have won, especially had the LD done a deal with them.

Just 15 years or so from the Blair 160 seat majority and a very successful election run by New Labour.

The point being that for some of the, let’s say, harder left, the penny needs to drop that if Labour is to regain power then a left of centre position is how that will be achieved. The battle is for the middle ground. Whilst the Corbyn position is attractive to some it will make it very difficult to win an election, so is in reality a pointless stance to take. The party of protest is about correct.

Starmer I Hope is a pragmatist and creates policies that help Labour win an election. An unpalatable position for some, but that’s how it is. If nothing else, the last election was a massive wake up call for Labour.

Just a couple of things Maffy.

1.Labours majority in 2005 was 66 seats a loss of over 100 seats. Hardly a successful campaign against a pretty lacklustre and dog whistle racist campaign run by Michael Howard.

2. Corbyn achieved more votes in 2017 and similar in 2019 than Blair did in 2001 and 2005.

Whilst trashing/lamenting Corbyn’s 2019 results in terms of seats (they still picked up 3 out of 10 votes) is fair enough, many have chosen to forget how close he came in 2017 to winning (when they got 4 out of 10 votes). If I remember rightly, if they had picked up just 2000-odd more votes in 7 more marginal constituencies that May held onto, he would have been able to form a government.

There’s no denying Jezza had become an electoral liability by 2019, and the biggest turn-off for voters in key seats. Whether that was because of his politics, personality, performance, the confusing brexit stance, or baggage is debatable. Probably a combination of the lot.

Starmer’s new shadow cabinet is predictably softer left, but let’s see how it goes. Reeves having a non-job on the top table is a LOL, and it’s a pity Dawn Butler or Clive Lewis haven’t got gigs, but otherwise it’s ok-ish (and at least that charlatan Jess Phillips got excluded).

I hope they don’t drift too far away from Corbyn’s social democrat programme, but there will be pressure to do so from the whiny Labour First/Progress factions, and the right wing rags will soon have their inevitable knives out: besides, there’s always the Lib Dems for those who want Tory-lite.

The way some go on, it’s as if they don’t get 10 million + people voted for the crackpot Corbyn ( against the 13 million + that voted Tory. In an average room of 23 people, you would have 10 labour voters against 13 Tory voters*. To suggest this means the notion of a fairer society has been trounced is frankly nonsense.

Almost as big a nonsense as calling Brown and Miliband and Jezza hard left.

* Those 13 voters may be down to 12 by now.

slacker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:10 pm Whilst trashing/lamenting Corbyn’s 2019 results in terms of seats (they still picked up 3 out of 10 votes) is fair enough, many have chosen to forget how close he came in 2017 to winning (when they got 4 out of 10 votes). If I remember rightly, if they had picked up just 2000-odd more votes in 7 more marginal constituencies that May held onto, he would have been able to form a government.

There’s no denying Jezza had become an electoral liability by 2019, and the biggest turn-off for voters in key seats. Whether that was because of his politics, personality, performance, the confusing brexit stance, or baggage is debatable. Probably a combination of the lot.

Starmer’s new shadow cabinet is predictably softer left, but let’s see how it goes. Reeves having a non-job on the top table is a LOL, and it’s a pity Dawn Butler or Clive Lewis haven’t got gigs, but otherwise it’s ok-ish (and at least that charlatan Jess Phillips got excluded).

I hope they don’t drift too far away from Corbyn’s social democrat programme, but there will be pressure to do so from the whiny Labour First/Progress factions, and the right wing rags will soon have their inevitable knives out: besides, there’s always the Lib Dems for those who want Tory-lite.

The fact the gobshite Blair is back out giving interview today tells you exactly where Sir Kier is taking us.

He's taking labour back to the electorate that will make the party electable.

Obviously he needs the right policies to achieve it, but first come.small steps.

slacker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:10 pm Whilst trashing/lamenting Corbyn’s 2019 results in terms of seats (they still picked up 3 out of 10 votes) is fair enough, many have chosen to forget how close he came in 2017 to winning (when they got 4 out of 10 votes). If I remember rightly, if they had picked up just 2000-odd more votes in 7 more marginal constituencies that May held onto, he would have been able to form a government.

There’s no denying Jezza had become an electoral liability by 2019, and the biggest turn-off for voters in key seats. Whether that was because of his politics, personality, performance, the confusing brexit stance, or baggage is debatable. Probably a combination of the lot.

Starmer’s new shadow cabinet is predictably softer left, but let’s see how it goes. Reeves having a non-job on the top table is a LOL, and it’s a pity Dawn Butler or Clive Lewis haven’t got gigs, but otherwise it’s ok-ish (and at least that charlatan Jess Phillips got excluded).

I hope they don’t drift too far away from Corbyn’s social democrat programme, but there will be pressure to do so from the whiny Labour First/Progress factions, and the right wing rags will soon have their inevitable knives out: besides, there’s always the Lib Dems for those who want Tory-lite.

So Corbyns claim to fame is ‘Nearly’. A nearly achieved by offering a range of goodies in the midst of a massive austerity drive and an absolute poo poo Tory campaign. Yet he still lost. If memory serves May still increased her share of the vote.

I liked some of the stuff he proposed, some. But Corbyn was a failure

Redline wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:48 pm

slacker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:10 pm Whilst trashing/lamenting Corbyn’s 2019 results in terms of seats (they still picked up 3 out of 10 votes) is fair enough, many have chosen to forget how close he came in 2017 to winning (when they got 4 out of 10 votes). If I remember rightly, if they had picked up just 2000-odd more votes in 7 more marginal constituencies that May held onto, he would have been able to form a government.

There’s no denying Jezza had become an electoral liability by 2019, and the biggest turn-off for voters in key seats. Whether that was because of his politics, personality, performance, the confusing brexit stance, or baggage is debatable. Probably a combination of the lot.

Starmer’s new shadow cabinet is predictably softer left, but let’s see how it goes. Reeves having a non-job on the top table is a LOL, and it’s a pity Dawn Butler or Clive Lewis haven’t got gigs, but otherwise it’s ok-ish (and at least that charlatan Jess Phillips got excluded).

I hope they don’t drift too far away from Corbyn’s social democrat programme, but there will be pressure to do so from the whiny Labour First/Progress factions, and the right wing rags will soon have their inevitable knives out: besides, there’s always the Lib Dems for those who want Tory-lite.

So Corbyns claim to fame is ‘Nearly’. A nearly achieved by offering a range of goodies in the midst of a massive austerity drive and an absolute poo poo Tory campaign. Yet he still lost. If memory serves May still increased her share of the vote.

I liked some of the stuff he proposed, some. But Corbyn was a failure

In purely electoral terms he did fail - twice.

In terms of dragging the party out of the stagnant swamp of neo-liberal/austerity orthodoxy the Labour Party Was in progress was made.

Those orthodoxies have been blown out of the water by Corona virus and the Tories are now a high spending party of big government.

By the time the disease recedes the political landscape will have changed so substantially that the assumptions and analysis you have written about will no longer be relevant.

Starmer will continue with many of the policies and the futile fight to make Labour a "socialist" party continues.

Corbyns biggest mistake was not expelling the right wing when his faction controlled the party.

Redline wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:20 pm

tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:04 pm

Redline wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:01 pm

How left he is, like others, a matter of opinion. But he was definitely the wrong brother to get the job. Just how different the political landscape today could look. An opportunity missed, big time, huge, massive. Shame.

So thats 3 elections
Corbyn 2
Miliband 1

Who is the 4th hard left in a row ?


It seems like you are making a claim that the hard left lost 4 elections in a row when quite clearly they havent.

Fair point, Brown wasn’t hard left. So that’s 4 election defeats, 3 by Milliband x1 and Corbyn x 2. So let’s say 3 if it makes you happy. Brown losing was largely due to the Global situation, without which he may well have won, especially had the LD done a deal with them.

Just 15 years or so from the Blair 160 seat majority and a very successful election run by New Labour.

The point being that for some of the, let’s say, harder left, the penny needs to drop that if Labour is to regain power then a left of centre position is how that will be achieved. The battle is for the middle ground. Whilst the Corbyn position is attractive to some it will make it very difficult to win an election, so is in reality a pointless stance to take. The party of protest is about correct.

Starmer I Hope is a pragmatist and creates policies that help Labour win an election. An unpalatable position for some, but that’s how it is. If nothing else, the last election was a massive wake up call for Labour.

So you are saying that 3 defeats ?

The last 4 elections 2 were not won by a party
Hung parliaments were in power .

Please stop gibbering on about the left or labours right or left.

Labour has now not won a general election in 4 attempts since 2010.

Previously 3 full terms between 1997 & 2010 were won at 3 GE .

The story party only got over the line once before &
It is the state of brexit that helped them win the last one
convincingly .

Some of the analysis on here is beyond myopic. Electibility is not the be all and end all. If that's all that matters why not lobby within the Tory party for soft Right policies, that party much more electable. What matters is what you're trying to achieve.

If your aim is to get out of a sinking boat and onto the lifeboats but can't convince the other moron passengers that that is the best coarse of action then agreeing to sing 'Abide with me' while we sink instead of 'Do the Locomotion' isn't much of a victory. Lefties like me will not support ANY party that throws the vulnerable or marginalised under the bus. The Labour Right specialise in doing just that. If the zeitgeist is against ethnic minorities then they wring their little hands and say "Well, we'd like to stand up for them but the public want them sent packing. Ya, know safe, electable, moderate politics,". If the zeitgeist is against 'benefit scroungers' then regardless of the actual facts of the matter or the human damage that will be done the Labour Right will be out there promising the Great British public (i.e - the wavering Tory vote) that Labour can be trusted to teach the lay-abouts a lesson. Its disgusting and I want no part of it. A red rosette ain't enough I'm affraid. You've actually got to stand for what I believe in if you want my vote. Yes, not supporting Labour is a pretty radical stance and I've never not voted Labour before but there comes a point when you have to take a stand. I've pinched my nose whilst voting Labour my entire life, yes even under Corbyn, but there comes a point when you have to say enough is enough. People like Rachel Reeves and Nick Thomas-Symonds have no business being in the Labour party. On every possible policy decision they are natural wet Conservatives.

Its also extremely telling that not one Brexit supporting MP has survived the cull. All of the northern Labour MP's who stuck by their Brexit voting constituents have been binned and replaced with die-hard remainers, which sends a great message to the heartlands that Labour lost.

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:03 pm

Redline wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:48 pm

slacker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:10 pm Whilst trashing/lamenting Corbyn’s 2019 results in terms of seats (they still picked up 3 out of 10 votes) is fair enough, many have chosen to forget how close he came in 2017 to winning (when they got 4 out of 10 votes). If I remember rightly, if they had picked up just 2000-odd more votes in 7 more marginal constituencies that May held onto, he would have been able to form a government.

There’s no denying Jezza had become an electoral liability by 2019, and the biggest turn-off for voters in key seats. Whether that was because of his politics, personality, performance, the confusing brexit stance, or baggage is debatable. Probably a combination of the lot.

Starmer’s new shadow cabinet is predictably softer left, but let’s see how it goes. Reeves having a non-job on the top table is a LOL, and it’s a pity Dawn Butler or Clive Lewis haven’t got gigs, but otherwise it’s ok-ish (and at least that charlatan Jess Phillips got excluded).

I hope they don’t drift too far away from Corbyn’s social democrat programme, but there will be pressure to do so from the whiny Labour First/Progress factions, and the right wing rags will soon have their inevitable knives out: besides, there’s always the Lib Dems for those who want Tory-lite.

So Corbyns claim to fame is ‘Nearly’. A nearly achieved by offering a range of goodies in the midst of a massive austerity drive and an absolute poo poo Tory campaign. Yet he still lost. If memory serves May still increased her share of the vote.

I liked some of the stuff he proposed, some. But Corbyn was a failure

In purely electoral terms he did fail - twice.

In terms of dragging the party out of the stagnant swamp of neo-liberal/austerity orthodoxy the Labour Party Was in progress was made.

Those orthodoxies have been blown out of the water by Corona virus and the Tories are now a high spending party of big government.

By the time the disease recedes the political landscape will have changed so substantially that the assumptions and analysis you have written about will no longer be relevant.

Starmer will continue with many of the policies and the futile fight to make Labour a "socialist" party continues.

Corbyns biggest mistake was not expelling the right wing when his faction controlled the party.

The same dumb mistake all Left-Wing Social Democrats make.

Do we really want THIS guy in charge of business in the UK?

Admin wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:09 pm Just a couple of things Maffy.

1.Labours majority in 2005 was 66 seats a loss of over 100 seats. Hardly a successful campaign against a pretty lacklustre and dog whistle racist campaign run by Michael Howard.

2. Corbyn achieved more votes in 2017 and similar in 2019 than Blair did in 2001 and 2005.

Of course, make my Approx 15 years approx 20 years. Time flies, thinking back to the 160/170 majority in Blair’s first two elections, but you are right. It did drop for his third victory but he had a damn good innings and I don’t doubt Corbyn would have been delighted with a 66 seat majority in either of his two elections. Next time I’ll google stuff and not rely on memory.

As for numbers of votes, turnout % will be one factor, population and numbers of voters another. I can only assume, not looked it up, the Tory vote went up too.

However you look at it, results reflect a moment in time, Blair was a massive success at the polls, Corbyn a massive failure. I’ve never made any secret of my support for Blair/New Labour and my dislike of Corbyn and the resulting utter mess of a party we have now. I’m convinced Blair would have smashed May and Johnson had he been the main man today.

Politics is all about winners. Blair/Johnson are winners. Corbyn consigned to the dustbin of history as a loser. Whatever ideas he had, and some were good, counted for zero as he was unelectable. Starmer has potential, let’s hope he delivers.

Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:10 pm

If your aim is to get out of a sinking boat and onto the lifeboats but can't convince the other moron passengers that that is the best coarse of action then agreeing to sing 'Abide with me' while we sink instead of 'Do the Locomotion' isn't much of a victory. Lefties like me will not support ANY party that throws the vulnerable or marginalised under the bus. The Labour Right specialise in doing just that.

this bit in particular is genius.

RedO wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:57 am

Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:10 pm

If your aim is to get out of a sinking boat and onto the lifeboats but can't convince the other moron passengers that that is the best coarse of action then agreeing to sing 'Abide with me' while we sink instead of 'Do the Locomotion' isn't much of a victory. Lefties like me will not support ANY party that throws the vulnerable or marginalised under the bus. The Labour Right specialise in doing just that.

this bit in particular is genius.

you wont be supporting any party then redo they have all been sending vulnerable people
under the bus for decades.

Greyhound I suspect redo is a closet tory.

greyhound wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:11 am

RedO wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:57 am

Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:10 pm

If your aim is to get out of a sinking boat and onto the lifeboats but can't convince the other moron passengers that that is the best coarse of action then agreeing to sing 'Abide with me' while we sink instead of 'Do the Locomotion' isn't much of a victory. Lefties like me will not support ANY party that throws the vulnerable or marginalised under the bus. The Labour Right specialise in doing just that.

this bit in particular is genius.

you wont be supporting any party then redo they have all been sending vulnerable people
under the bus for decades.

Only one party has been doing that for the past decade fella.

Good to see you are having second thoughts. Common sense comes slower to some people than others.

slacker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:10 pm Whilst trashing/lamenting Corbyn’s 2019 results in terms of seats (they still picked up 3 out of 10 votes) is fair enough, many have chosen to forget how close he came in 2017 to winning (when they got 4 out of 10 votes). If I remember rightly, if they had picked up just 2000-odd more votes in 7 more marginal constituencies that May held onto, he would have been able to form a government.

There’s no denying Jezza had become an electoral liability by 2019, and the biggest turn-off for voters in key seats. Whether that was because of his politics, personality, performance, the confusing brexit stance, or baggage is debatable. Probably a combination of the lot.

Starmer’s new shadow cabinet is predictably softer left, but let’s see how it goes. Reeves having a non-job on the top table is a LOL, and it’s a pity Dawn Butler or Clive Lewis haven’t got gigs, but otherwise it’s ok-ish (and at least that charlatan Jess Phillips got excluded).

I hope they don’t drift too far away from Corbyn’s social democrat programme, but there will be pressure to do so from the whiny Labour First/Progress factions, and the right wing rags will soon have their inevitable knives out: besides, there’s always the Lib Dems for those who want Tory-lite.

Dawn Butler shouldn’t be anywhere near a shadow cabinet position. She’s genuinely awful. At least Diane Abbott has the excuse of having some sort of degenerative illness.

Also comparing Labour’s 2017/19 vote shares with 2001/05 in a totally different political environment is such a non-argument. Mourinho’s United that finished 2nd a couple of years back got more points than the 98/99 treble winners, but you wouldn’t call them a better team.

RedO wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:57 am

Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:10 pm

If your aim is to get out of a sinking boat and onto the lifeboats but can't convince the other moron passengers that that is the best coarse of action then agreeing to sing 'Abide with me' while we sink instead of 'Do the Locomotion' isn't much of a victory. Lefties like me will not support ANY party that throws the vulnerable or marginalised under the bus. The Labour Right specialise in doing just that.

this bit in particular is genius.

Supporting a party that won’t get elected? Now that’s genius.

RedO wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:23 pm The way some go on, it’s as if they don’t get 10 million + people voted for the crackpot Corbyn ( against the 13 million + that voted Tory. In an average room of 23 people, you would have 10 labour voters against 13 Tory voters*. To suggest this means the notion of a fairer society has been trounced is frankly nonsense.

Almost as big a nonsense as calling Brown and Miliband and Jezza hard left.

* Those 13 voters may be down to 12 by now.

Christ only another 4 and a half years of this "could have, Should have and if only" poo poo, As always the Labour left are turning a hefty defeat at the polls into a near miss. Moving closer to the centre will at the very least give them more credibility with the majority of voters and they should be able to mount a decent challenge under Starmer. I'm surprised Momentum haven't broken away to form their own party, perhaps they will if Starmer stands up to them.

Redline wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:46 am

RedO wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:57 am

Eat The Rich wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:10 pm

If your aim is to get out of a sinking boat and onto the lifeboats but can't convince the other moron passengers that that is the best coarse of action then agreeing to sing 'Abide with me' while we sink instead of 'Do the Locomotion' isn't much of a victory. Lefties like me will not support ANY party that throws the vulnerable or marginalised under the bus. The Labour Right specialise in doing just that.

this bit in particular is genius.

Supporting a party that won’t get elected? Now that’s genius.

Arguing for the life boats when that won't win the vote. Now that's genius.

Millennial Snowflake wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:39 am

slacker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:10 pm Whilst trashing/lamenting Corbyn’s 2019 results in terms of seats (they still picked up 3 out of 10 votes) is fair enough, many have chosen to forget how close he came in 2017 to winning (when they got 4 out of 10 votes). If I remember rightly, if they had picked up just 2000-odd more votes in 7 more marginal constituencies that May held onto, he would have been able to form a government.

There’s no denying Jezza had become an electoral liability by 2019, and the biggest turn-off for voters in key seats. Whether that was because of his politics, personality, performance, the confusing brexit stance, or baggage is debatable. Probably a combination of the lot.

Starmer’s new shadow cabinet is predictably softer left, but let’s see how it goes. Reeves having a non-job on the top table is a LOL, and it’s a pity Dawn Butler or Clive Lewis haven’t got gigs, but otherwise it’s ok-ish (and at least that charlatan Jess Phillips got excluded).

I hope they don’t drift too far away from Corbyn’s social democrat programme, but there will be pressure to do so from the whiny Labour First/Progress factions, and the right wing rags will soon have their inevitable knives out: besides, there’s always the Lib Dems for those who want Tory-lite.

Dawn Butler shouldn’t be anywhere near a shadow cabinet position. She’s genuinely awful. At least Diane Abbott has the excuse of having some sort of degenerative illness.

Also comparing Labour’s 2017/19 vote shares with 2001/05 in a totally different political environment is such a non-argument. Mourinho’s United that finished 2nd a couple of years back got more points than the 98/99 treble winners, but you wouldn’t call them a better team.

Just to add to the above on comparisons

Blair managed a 66 seat majority despite already being in government for 8 years and being at the height of the Iraq disaster

Corbyn achieved Labour's worst result for 85 years despite 10 years of Conservatives in power enacting austerity.

Of course Corbyn's supporters will point to votes (despite it not being the factor on which elections are judged) because it's the only metric by which Corbyn's four years don't look like an electoral cluster*uck

Top of the JES wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:01 am

RedO wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:23 pm The way some go on, it’s as if they don’t get 10 million + people voted for the crackpot Corbyn ( against the 13 million + that voted Tory. In an average room of 23 people, you would have 10 labour voters against 13 Tory voters*. To suggest this means the notion of a fairer society has been trounced is frankly nonsense.

Almost as big a nonsense as calling Brown and Miliband and Jezza hard left.

* Those 13 voters may be down to 12 by now.

Christ only another 4 and a half years of this "could have, Should have and if only" poo poo, As always the Labour left are turning a hefty defeat at the polls into a near miss. Moving closer to the centre will at the very least give them more credibility with the majority of voters and they should be able to mount a decent challenge under Starmer. I'm surprised Momentum haven't broken away to form their own party, perhaps they will if Starmer stands up to them.

If Labour moves against Momentum in any way then we'll know for sure that the fix was always in. Progress has been under investigation for years for its extremely dodgy activities and yet leader after leader has welcomed them as part of the broad church. The only part of the church that ever gets excommunicated is the left. So much for plurality.