Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:35 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:20 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:48 pm

I do, he was briefing herd immunity a couple of weeks ago before the ides was shut down and he was sidelined.

As far as I'm aware that was his last meaningful input into the response policy.

Since then there has been a number of developments. Given you said he was "still the architect" I was wondering what role he had played in shaping government policy in the last couple of weeks?

I think you'll find that architects tend to do their thing at the beginning of a project. Thus he was still the architect at that stage. It was this early decision to go down the herd approach route that meant we lost the chance to isolate and test. Again, you already know this.

As to whether he was sidelined after that or just took a back seat, I have no idea.

But the policy has evolved multiple times since then and he has had no input into any policy decisions so how is he "still the architect" as you put it?

His one idea "Herd immunity" that he briefed to a select few journalists (namely Robert Peston and Tim Shipman) was never actually adopted anyway so he is the architect of nothing but his own failed policy.

BoniO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:41 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:35 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:20 pm

I think you'll find that architects tend to do their thing at the beginning of a project. Thus he was still the architect at that stage. It was this early decision to go down the herd approach route that meant we lost the chance to isolate and test. Again, you already know this.

As to whether he was sidelined after that or just took a back seat, I have no idea.

But the policy has evolved multiple times since then and he has had no input into any policy decisions so how is he "still the architect" as you put it?

His one idea "Herd immunity" that he briefed to a select few journalists (namely Robert Peston and Tim Shipman) was never actually adopted anyway so he is the architect of nothing but his own failed policy.

Bored now. He was the architect of the original policy - which was initially followed. So, by definition, he was still the architect - this doesn't imply that he maintained control after this point. C ya.

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:51 pm He wasn't the architect as such. The government have been led by what their chief medical, epidemiological and health experts had prepared for this situation. Limiting exposure to vulnerable groups whilst achieving 'herd immunity' for the healthy majority is what we will be default eventually going for anyways as I understand it. Current measures are not sustainable for the length of time needed for the vaccine to be developed, and if we do a kind of isolate on-off approach a few times, I'd have thought we'd get to a proportion of population being infected that the herd theory would work anyway?

The reporting on this by the liberal/left press has been irresponsible on this in my opinion, they had suggested that the UK was somehow going against overwhelming consensus through its more laid back approach, when countries like the Netherlands, Sweden and to an extent Germany were/are doing the same thing. The issue seems to be more how unprepared the government was in terms of impact on NHS.

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:51 pm He wasn't the architect as such. The government have been led by what their chief medical, epidemiological and health experts had prepared for this situation. Limiting exposure to vulnerable groups whilst achieving 'herd immunity' for the healthy majority is what we will be default eventually going for anyways as I understand it. Current measures are not sustainable for the length of time needed for the vaccine to be developed, and if we do a kind of isolate on-off approach a few times, I'd have thought we'd get to a proportion of population being infected that the herd theory would work anyway?

The reporting on this by the liberal/left press has been irresponsible on this in my opinion, they had suggested that the UK was somehow going against overwhelming consensus through its more laid back approach, when countries like the Netherlands, Sweden and to an extent Germany were/are doing the same thing. The issue seems to be more how unprepared the government was in terms of impact on NHS.

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:51 pm He wasn't the architect as such. The government have been led by what their chief medical, epidemiological and health experts had prepared for this situation. Limiting exposure to vulnerable groups whilst achieving 'herd immunity' for the healthy majority is what we will be default eventually going for anyways as I understand it. Current measures are not sustainable for the length of time needed for the vaccine to be developed, and if we do a kind of isolate on-off approach a few times, I'd have thought we'd get to a proportion of population being infected that the herd theory would work anyway?

The reporting on this by the liberal/left press has been irresponsible on this in my opinion, they had suggested that the UK was somehow going against overwhelming consensus through its more laid back approach, when countries like the Netherlands, Sweden and to an extent Germany were/are doing the same thing. The issue seems to be more how unprepared the government was in terms of impact on NHS.

Thor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:32 pm

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:51 pm He wasn't the architect as such. The government have been led by what their chief medical, epidemiological and health experts had prepared for this situation. Limiting exposure to vulnerable groups whilst achieving 'herd immunity' for the healthy majority is what we will be default eventually going for anyways as I understand it. Current measures are not sustainable for the length of time needed for the vaccine to be developed, and if we do a kind of isolate on-off approach a few times, I'd have thought we'd get to a proportion of population being infected that the herd theory would work anyway?

The reporting on this by the liberal/left press has been irresponsible on this in my opinion, they had suggested that the UK was somehow going against overwhelming consensus through its more laid back approach, when countries like the Netherlands, Sweden and to an extent Germany were/are doing the same thing. The issue seems to be more how unprepared the government was in terms of impact on NHS.

Spot on in your analysis. It's a shame that some on here can't see through their party political entrenched views to understand where the ideas actually came from and why.

In respect to the NHS it is has not been set up to deal with the situation the country is faced with. The plan over the last 10-20 years has been to run it on a specialist by specialist hospital basis and so now the sh*t hit the fans the set up can't deal with concentrated numbers of people needing specialist ventilation support. Once this is over a serious review needs to happen so we are better supported going forwards. A lot also needs to be asked of what the senior pen pushers in the nhs have been doing as they've been slow to procure product, move it to where its needed and do it expediently. They have failed us more than most.

BoniO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:46 pm

Thor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:32 pm

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:51 pm He wasn't the architect as such. The government have been led by what their chief medical, epidemiological and health experts had prepared for this situation. Limiting exposure to vulnerable groups whilst achieving 'herd immunity' for the healthy majority is what we will be default eventually going for anyways as I understand it. Current measures are not sustainable for the length of time needed for the vaccine to be developed, and if we do a kind of isolate on-off approach a few times, I'd have thought we'd get to a proportion of population being infected that the herd theory would work anyway?

The reporting on this by the liberal/left press has been irresponsible on this in my opinion, they had suggested that the UK was somehow going against overwhelming consensus through its more laid back approach, when countries like the Netherlands, Sweden and to an extent Germany were/are doing the same thing. The issue seems to be more how unprepared the government was in terms of impact on NHS.

Spot on in your analysis. It's a shame that some on here can't see through their party political entrenched views to understand where the ideas actually came from and why.

In respect to the NHS it is has not been set up to deal with the situation the country is faced with. The plan over the last 10-20 years has been to run it on a specialist by specialist hospital basis and so now the sh*t hit the fans the set up can't deal with concentrated numbers of people needing specialist ventilation support. Once this is over a serious review needs to happen so we are better supported going forwards. A lot also needs to be asked of what the senior pen pushers in the nhs have been doing as they've been slow to procure product, move it to where its needed and do it expediently. They have failed us more than most.

It's nothing to do with entrenched political views, as has been stated many times before. That's just your simplistic view and/or hope as it fits your own entrenched political views. It's really about incompetence and disregard for human life.

Thor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:35 pm I've said many times on here previously that the NHS and the Social Security system are the two best things this country has ever done. The fact that the nhs is receiving more money than it's ever had and that will only increase as we move forwards suggests to me that fundamentally something is wrong. Successive governments have failed to address it for fear of annoying the voters, I never want to see it privatised, I want a fully paid for system provided by the state. I know it costs money and I'm yet to meet anyone who wouldn't pay more for better service or standards. So it's not a money issue, but deeper than that. Its clear to see the set up can't cope with what we are faced with, we have less beds than Italy for example,.less ventilators than Germany. That can't be right. It really needs a cross party look at it and a working party to deliver a premium service for this century. Only by coming together can I ever see it getting to where it should be. Money isn't the issue all three parties have proved that, its deeper than that a lot deeper.

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:44 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:41 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:35 pm

But the policy has evolved multiple times since then and he has had no input into any policy decisions so how is he "still the architect" as you put it?

His one idea "Herd immunity" that he briefed to a select few journalists (namely Robert Peston and Tim Shipman) was never actually adopted anyway so he is the architect of nothing but his own failed policy.

Bored now. He was the architect of the original policy - which was initially followed. So, by definition, he was still the architect - this doesn't imply that he maintained control after this point. C ya.

He actually didn't devise the "Herd Immunity" policy (he only briefed it) nor was it ever formally adopted by anyone in government. Unless you have evidence to the contrary that I haven't seen?

Disoriented wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:37 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:44 pm

BoniO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:41 pm

Bored now. He was the architect of the original policy - which was initially followed. So, by definition, he was still the architect - this doesn't imply that he maintained control after this point. C ya.

He actually didn't devise the "Herd Immunity" policy (he only briefed it) nor was it ever formally adopted by anyone in government. Unless you have evidence to the contrary that I haven't seen?

You know for a fact that Cummings ‘only briefed it’?

Evidence?

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:41 pm

Disoriented wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:37 pm

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:44 pm

He actually didn't devise the "Herd Immunity" policy (he only briefed it) nor was it ever formally adopted by anyone in government. Unless you have evidence to the contrary that I haven't seen?

You know for a fact that Cummings ‘only briefed it’?

Evidence?

Only briefed it as opposed to?

The evidence it was him that gave the briefing is Shipman's article. There's no evidence to suggest it had been adopted officially by the government at that point

Digby Chicken Caesar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:53 pm Oh, you weren't interested in discussing the matter and just wanted to post some emojis.

How foolish of me for engaging

BoniO wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:41 pm

Mistadobalina wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:51 pm He wasn't the architect as such. The government have been led by what their chief medical, epidemiological and health experts had prepared for this situation. Limiting exposure to vulnerable groups whilst achieving 'herd immunity' for the healthy majority is what we will be default eventually going for anyways as I understand it. Current measures are not sustainable for the length of time needed for the vaccine to be developed, and if we do a kind of isolate on-off approach a few times, I'd have thought we'd get to a proportion of population being infected that the herd theory would work anyway?

The reporting on this by the liberal/left press has been irresponsible on this in my opinion, they had suggested that the UK was somehow going against overwhelming consensus through its more laid back approach, when countries like the Netherlands, Sweden and to an extent Germany were/are doing the same thing. The issue seems to be more how unprepared the government was in terms of impact on NHS.

At the beginning of this crisis it was of course the CMO, CSO and their teams who put together the possible responses. The herd immunity proposal was certainly backed by Cummings. Then the numbers were crunched and the CSO, Vallance, was quoted at saying that around 50 million people would catch the disease this way and with a fatality rate believed to be between 0.6 and 1%, then between 300 - 500,000 people would die. It was at this point that Hancock made his statement that we wouldn't be going down this path. However, we'd already missed the boat by this time with regard to isolating, testing and potentially going into lockdown earlier on in the crisis. Also, at around the time that Vallance was talking about the herd immunity and the large number of fatalities required, other eminent scientists described the herd immunity proposal as "capitulation" and pointed out that herd immunity was by no means guaranteed as this hypothesis was based on the coronavirus behaving like flu. It is by no means proven that herd immunity will happen.

I don't agree that the liberal/left press has been irresponsible. There were best practice examples amongst some of the Countries affected early on in the crisis. It's appropriate that the press should point it out if our government is/was slow to learn from these best practices. So, if Germany, Netherlands and Sweden are really taking similar action to the UK then their governments may deserve criticism as well. Our "being as bad" as the others hardly fills me with confidence.

You touch on the impact on the NHS and that's just huge how an impoverished NHS is being asked to deliver what they are not equipped to do. The lack of beds, staff, equipment and PPE has again been well documented and once again, this government is to blame. Reading today how some surgeons are resorting to buying masks and goggles from Screwfix and adapting them for medical use just highlights how bad the situation is.