Independent Leyton Orient Forum

1400 odd infections again but only 43 deaths today

And predictions are we still 3 weeks away from the
eye of the storm.

While it may not be much comfort to those already affected, the UK death rate does appear to be starting to follow a lower trajectory. Hopefully this will continue.

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 am While it may not be much comfort to those already affected, the UK death rate does appear to be starting to follow a lower trajectory. Hopefully this will continue.

Hear hear.

For a slightly uplifting take on the NHS's preparation for what's coming, worth reading an article from the normally staunch libertarian Spectator:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/on- ... ats-coming

An interesting point was made about how the stats for each country are being reported is likely to be highly inconsistent as each healthcare system will have its own way of recording deaths relating to the virus. For example, the UK has now switched to describing all deaths relating to Covid as being a notifiable disease like smallpox, rabies etc. However, other countries won't report it this way when it is 'only' a contributing factor towards a death primarily brought about something else - for example, cancer. That approach is consistent with how we in the UK report deaths relating to flu when flu is simply a complicating factor in an existing serious or terminal condition.

This isn't to undermine the seriousness of the illness, but it will make doing like for like comparisons between countries in how they coped with this difficult.

When the govt finally get round to issueing antibody testing kits the numbers of people already to have been infected is going to go up massively, it's a matter of urgency to get these kits out and test NHS and key workers as I suspect that many will have already been infected but with mild symptoms.

It will also put the mortality rate into proper perspective.

A Covid-19 tracker app was developed by researchers at King's College London along with Guy's and St Thomas's hospitals, the Covid Symptom Tracker app apparently helps scientists identify high-risk areas and track how fast the virus is spreading. Of 65,000 sign ups in the first week 1in10 were deemed to have had or were having Covid-19 symptoms.

First patient in the world from Iceland to be tested positive for 2 different strains of covid 19

Scientists now believe they could be at least 6 different mutations

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/24/pa ... n-iceland/

Britain's patient zero: Sussex IT worker, 50, 'caught coronavirus in party bar at Austria's "Ibiza of the Alps" ski resort that is accused of covering up infections and started spreading it here in JANUARY'

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

Another coronavirus breeding ground.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11251491/ ... r-bergamo/

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 am While it may not be much comfort to those already affected, the UK death rate does appear to be starting to follow a lower trajectory. Hopefully this will continue.

Unfortunately given the incubation time and then the time taken for people to get sick enough to need hospital it seems inconceivable that we would see an effect yet. The people arriving at hospital now are those infected around the 13th March when it was largely business as usual.

I'm fairly sure I have it now, cough and fever added to the aches and tiredness. You'll be pleased to know that means I don't have the energy to discuss the looseness of the word strain.

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 am While it may not be much comfort to those already affected, the UK death rate does appear to be starting to follow a lower trajectory. Hopefully this will continue.

Unfortunately given the incubation time and then the time taken for people to get sick enough to need hospital it seems inconceivable that we would see an effect yet. The people arriving at hospital now are those infected around the 13th March when it was largely business as usual.

I'm fairly sure I have it now, cough and fever added to the aches and tiredness. You'll be pleased to know that means I don't have the energy to discuss the looseness of the word strain.

Good luck mate - hope you just suffer "mild" symptoms.

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 am While it may not be much comfort to those already affected, the UK death rate does appear to be starting to follow a lower trajectory. Hopefully this will continue.

Unfortunately given the incubation time and then the time taken for people to get sick enough to need hospital it seems inconceivable that we would see an effect yet. The people arriving at hospital now are those infected around the 13th March when it was largely business as usual.

I'm fairly sure I have it now, cough and fever added to the aches and tiredness. You'll be pleased to know that means I don't have the energy to discuss the looseness of the word strain.

Get well soon mate

This is what's driving the governments efforts. Note that they estimate deaths in the tens of millions globally.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i ... ronavirus/

Just seen the way the number of deaths is being recorded is 'changing' and yesterday was a 'crossover day'. Exact details seem vague but seem to include the need for family consent. I'm sure this is absolutely out of concern for the feelings of the bereaved and nothing to do with wanting to make the figures look better.

Thor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 pm This is what's driving the governments efforts. Note that they estimate deaths in the tens of millions globally.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-i ... ronavirus/

Strange how they get more and more concerned from report 1 up to report 12
Initially agreed to the herd immunity trial
As you pointed out it’s an estimate
I don’t see anything in any report from 1-12 where the Government is taking action from this team of researchers/Doctors etc
The present Government actions are through the intervention of WHO who warned herd immunity was a dangerous way to go Whitty Vallance and Johnson had to oblige full stop

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm

Dunners wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 am While it may not be much comfort to those already affected, the UK death rate does appear to be starting to follow a lower trajectory. Hopefully this will continue.

Unfortunately given the incubation time and then the time taken for people to get sick enough to need hospital it seems inconceivable that we would see an effect yet. The people arriving at hospital now are those infected around the 13th March when it was largely business as usual.

I'm fairly sure I have it now, cough and fever added to the aches and tiredness. You'll be pleased to know that means I don't have the energy to discuss the looseness of the word strain.

You reckon it takes two weeks to get from infection to hospitalised? How do you know this?

I took the number of days for the average incubation period and added it, without the aid of a calculator, to the average number of days it takes from showing symptons to being admitted to hospital. Both those figures are widely and easily available from reputable sources.

Hope you're feeling better soon, Mick.

I've got two family members displaying symptoms now for a few days. So far they seem okay, but if it is a virus then I'm bound to get it being stuck inside with them for 12 weeks.

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm I took the number of days for the average incubation period and added it, without the aid of a calculator, to the average number of days it takes from showing symptons to being admitted to hospital. Both those figures are widely and easily available from reputable sources.

Lets see these figures then.

Prestige Worldwide wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:42 pm

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm I took the number of days for the average incubation period and added it, without the aid of a calculator, to the average number of days it takes from showing symptons to being admitted to hospital. Both those figures are widely and easily available from reputable sources.

Lets see these figures then.

Why don't you just do a bit of work yourself? This guy has already said he'd probably got the virus and the last thing he needs right now is a pillock like you chasing him down for data - data that is freely available on the net. Just back off.

He's not obligated to reply. I'm not going to spend my time trying to verify other peoples claims when they already have the data.

https://www.healthline.com/health/coron ... ion-period

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044

Please do let me know if my sources don't meet your criteria for reliability.

And as per my point made earlier it has now been confirmed that yesterdays stats were low because of a change of methodology, it was effectively a 12 hour count.

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:54 pm https://www.healthline.com/health/coron ... ion-period

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044

Please do let me know if my sources don't meet your criteria for reliability.

And as per my point made earlier it has now been confirmed that yesterdays stats were low because of a change of methodology, it was effectively a 12 hour count.

Good luck with your recovery Mick

Help for the self employed base Dupont their tax returns for those who earn up to £50K..... Very generous package

However, long term, it'll be the catalyst to end the self employed tax perks

Mick McQuaid wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:54 pm https://www.healthline.com/health/coron ... ion-period

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044

Please do let me know if my sources don't meet your criteria for reliability.

And as per my point made earlier it has now been confirmed that yesterdays stats were low because of a change of methodology, it was effectively a 12 hour count.

"The time from onset to dyspnea was 5.0 days, 7.0 days to hospital admission"

Is the above from 2nd link the bit you're going by? I'm not sure what they mean by onset really, could be 7 days total.