Independent Leyton Orient Forum

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:01 am**

The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:53 am
Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:01 am The more I read the more I think the former. Last night was just a display. The board's Middle-East Geo-Political Experts' reputations remain intact. Phew.
If you're banking on Netanyahu doing what everyone wants, then you haven't been paying attention.

Fair point. Iran is playing the long game. Israel, however, has a different calculus. It knows it is surrounded by enemies that want to wipe it out.

It will also be watching the trends; that the Iran axis is increasing in strength while its main ally, the US, is becoming less dependable. There's a cold, hard, twisted logic that from an Israeli perspective, if a major war is a high probability, now may be the least-worst time to have it.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:49 am**

My fear is that we are heading for a wider conflict in the area. The Iranian regime has seen increasing internal unrest, while the Israeli Government is filled with more hardliners than its ever had. Resentment in how Netanyahu continues to handle Gaza is growing and this will push him to escalate, rather than row back, which he has consistently done.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 1:27 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:01 am
The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:53 am
Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:01 am The more I read the more I think the former. Last night was just a display. The board's Middle-East Geo-Political Experts' reputations remain intact. Phew.
If you're banking on Netanyahu doing what everyone wants, then you haven't been paying attention.
Fair point. Iran is playing the long game. Israel, however, has a different calculus. It knows it is surrounded by enemies that want to wipe it out.

It will also be watching the trends; that the Iran axis is increasing in strength while its main ally, the US, is becoming less dependable. There's a cold, hard, twisted logic that from an Israeli perspective, if a major war is a high probability, now may be the least-worst time to have it.

But they know it's a war they can't win. So why would they be so keen to start it?

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:23 pm**

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 1:27 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:01 am
The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:53 am

If you're banking on Netanyahu doing what everyone wants, then you haven't been paying attention.
Fair point. Iran is playing the long game. Israel, however, has a different calculus. It knows it is surrounded by enemies that want to wipe it out.

It will also be watching the trends; that the Iran axis is increasing in strength while its main ally, the US, is becoming less dependable. There's a cold, hard, twisted logic that from an Israeli perspective, if a major war is a high probability, now may be the least-worst time to have it.
But they know it's a war they can't win. So why would they be so keen to start ir?

It's incredible how military chiefs can get so caught up with their own hubris. The twisted logic I've hypothesised is similar to what the European powers applied leading up to WW1. If you genuinely believe that general war is unavoidable, and that your odds of success are more likely to reduce over time, then is pulling the trigger sooner you're least-worst option?

The region is likely to be contested in the future by either the Persians, Arabs or Turks. Israel can do business with the Arabs and Turks, but Iran has made it clear that it wants Israel wiped of the map.

Israel may consider a 'win' being a significant downgrade of Iranian economic strength and potential nuclear capability. Israel could possibly achieve that with the support of its partners and airstrikes/cruise missiles. This could put Iran back 20 years which, while not perfect, buys everyone a bit more time.

Also, it's interesting that Turkey hasnt revealed its hand yet.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:59 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:23 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 1:27 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:01 am

Fair point. Iran is playing the long game. Israel, however, has a different calculus. It knows it is surrounded by enemies that want to wipe it out.

It will also be watching the trends; that the Iran axis is increasing in strength while its main ally, the US, is becoming less dependable. There's a cold, hard, twisted logic that from an Israeli perspective, if a major war is a high probability, now may be the least-worst time to have it.
But they know it's a war they can't win. So why would they be so keen to start ir?
It's incredible how military chiefs can get so caught up with their own hubris. The twisted logic I've hypothesised is similar to what the European powers applied leading up to WW1. If you genuinely believe that general war is unavoidable, and that your odds of success are more likely to reduce over time, then is pulling the trigger sooner you're least-worst option?

The region is likely to be contested in the future by either the Persians, Arabs or Turks. Israel can do business with the Arabs and Turks, but Iran has made it clear that it wants Israel wiped of the map.

Israel may consider a 'win' being a significant downgrade of Iranian economic strength and potential nuclear capability. Israel could possibly achieve that with the support of its partners and airstrikes/cruise missiles. This could put Iran back 20 years which, while not perfect, buys everyone a bit more time.

Also, it's interesting that Turkey hasnt revealed its hand yet.

Your analogy of the events leading up to WW1 was exactly what I was thinking when watching the events unfold last night.

Looking forward to Trump announcing that he has already thought of a plan to fix it all. Although with his expected victory in November and the liklihood that US foreign policy will be to "let overseas folks sort their own stuff out" might play a part in the thoughts of both Israel and Iran.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 3:13 pm**

The Mindsweep wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:59 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:23 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 1:27 pm

But they know it's a war they can't win. So why would they be so keen to start ir?
It's incredible how military chiefs can get so caught up with their own hubris. The twisted logic I've hypothesised is similar to what the European powers applied leading up to WW1. If you genuinely believe that general war is unavoidable, and that your odds of success are more likely to reduce over time, then is pulling the trigger sooner you're least-worst option?

The region is likely to be contested in the future by either the Persians, Arabs or Turks. Israel can do business with the Arabs and Turks, but Iran has made it clear that it wants Israel wiped of the map.

Israel may consider a 'win' being a significant downgrade of Iranian economic strength and potential nuclear capability. Israel could possibly achieve that with the support of its partners and airstrikes/cruise missiles. This could put Iran back 20 years which, while not perfect, buys everyone a bit more time.

Also, it's interesting that Turkey hasnt revealed its hand yet.
Your analogy of the events leading up to WW1 was exactly what I was thinking when watching the events unfold last night.

Looking forward to Trump announcing that he has already thought of a plan to fix it all. Although with his expected victory in November and the liklihood that US foreign policy will be to "let overseas folks sort their own stuff out" might play a part in the thoughts of both Israel and Iran.

Well I have often heard it said from people on the left that America should mind their own business and not get involved with other countries problems .. So if they did indeed take a step back and just watched , what would the be outcome ?

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 3:30 pm**

I see the RAF are boasting about shooting down some defenceless drones. Welcome to the quagmire.

Did I miss the debate and vote in parliament that rubber stamped the UKs involvement in this shitshow.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:19 pm**

The drones were intended to be shot down. Iran signalled in advance what they were going to do and then flew them at a very slow speed (9 hours flight time) to ensure that they could be intercepted.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:29 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:19 pm The drones were intended to be shot down. Iran signalled in advance what they were going to do and then flew them at a very slow speed (9 hours flight time) to ensure that they could be intercepted.

That was very good and sporting of Iran , wasn't it ?

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:30 pm**

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 3:30 pm I see the RAF are boasting about shooting down some defenceless drones. Welcome to the quagmire.

Did I miss the debate and vote in parliament that rubber stamped the UKs involvement in this shitshow.

Boasting or just reporting ?

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:48 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:19 pm The drones were intended to be shot down. Iran signalled in advance what they were going to do and then flew them at a very slow speed (9 hours flight time) to ensure that they could be intercepted.

Like a joe Pigott shot

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:51 pm**

RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:30 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 3:30 pm I see the RAF are boasting about shooting down some defenceless drones. Welcome to the quagmire.

Did I miss the debate and vote in parliament that rubber stamped the UKs involvement in this shitshow.
Boasting or just reporting ?

Definitely boasting.

Iran used so few drones and missiles to test the Iron Dome and it was penetrated. Israel also had to call in US and UK military assistance. Iran now knows exactly what it set out to learn.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 5:11 pm**

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:51 pm
RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:30 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 3:30 pm I see the RAF are boasting about shooting down some defenceless drones. Welcome to the quagmire.

Did I miss the debate and vote in parliament that rubber stamped the UKs involvement in this shitshow.
Boasting or just reporting ?
Definitely boasting.

Iran used so few drones and missiles to test the Iron Dome and it was penetrated. Israel also had to call in US and UK military assistance. Iran now knows exactly what it set out to learn.

331 missiles and drones reported to have been fired.

185 drones - all intercepted
36 cruise missiles- all intercepted
110 ballistic missiles - 103 intercepted

So just 7 missiles got through, none of which causing any damage to Israeli assets.

That's enough for Iran to say it has struck back at Israel. But not too many to overwhelm defences. And, as you suggest, a good opportunity for Iran to assess Israeli defensive capabilities. Including support offered from Jordan and bases in Syria and Iraq.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:13 pm**

Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 5:11 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:51 pm
RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:30 pm

Boasting or just reporting ?
Definitely boasting.

Iran used so few drones and missiles to test the Iron Dome and it was penetrated. Israel also had to call in US and UK military assistance. Iran now knows exactly what it set out to learn.
331 missiles and drones reported to have been fired.

185 drones - all intercepted
36 cruise missiles- all intercepted
110 ballistic missiles - 103 intercepted

So just 7 missiles got through, none of which causing any damage to Israeli assets.

That's enough for Iran to say it has struck back at Israel. But not too many to overwhelm defences. And, as you suggest, a good opportunity for Iran to assess Israeli defensive capabilities. Including support offered from Jordan and bases in Syria and Iraq.

And of course the Iron Dome now has to be reloaded at great cost financially and in materiel.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:46 pm**

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:13 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 5:11 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 4:51 pm

Definitely boasting.

Iran used so few drones and missiles to test the Iron Dome and it was penetrated. Israel also had to call in US and UK military assistance. Iran now knows exactly what it set out to learn.
331 missiles and drones reported to have been fired.

185 drones - all intercepted
36 cruise missiles- all intercepted
110 ballistic missiles - 103 intercepted

So just 7 missiles got through, none of which causing any damage to Israeli assets.

That's enough for Iran to say it has struck back at Israel. But not too many to overwhelm defences. And, as you suggest, a good opportunity for Iran to assess Israeli defensive capabilities. Including support offered from Jordan and bases in Syria and Iraq.
And of course the Iron Dome now has to he reloaded at great cost financially and in materiel.

Iron dome is bankrolled by the yanks to the tune of nine figures

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:12 pm**

Iron dome defending the Al-Aqsa mosque from Iran’s attack

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... -on-israel

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:17 pm**

American tax payers are paying for Israel's whole being.

I wonder how many want this to be

I would guess not many

If the Yanks weren't bankrolling Israel, Israel wouldn't exist

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:24 pm**

Perry Taul wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:46 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:13 pm
Dunners wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 5:11 pm

331 missiles and drones reported to have been fired.

185 drones - all intercepted
36 cruise missiles- all intercepted
110 ballistic missiles - 103 intercepted

So just 7 missiles got through, none of which causing any damage to Israeli assets.

That's enough for Iran to say it has struck back at Israel. But not too many to overwhelm defences. And, as you suggest, a good opportunity for Iran to assess Israeli defensive capabilities. Including support offered from Jordan and bases in Syria and Iraq.
And of course the Iron Dome now has to he reloaded at great cost financially and in materiel.
Iron dome is bankrolled by the yanks to the tune of nine figures

The productive capacity of the US and the wealth it creates is a wonder to behold. Just imagine if their largesse was used for good causes instead of war.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:25 pm**

ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:17 pm American tax payers are paying for Israel's whole being.

I wonder how many want this to be

I would guess not many

If the Yanks weren't bankrolling Israel, Israel wouldn't exist

Would you prefer Israel to not have iron dome then?

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:28 pm**

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:24 pm
Perry Taul wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:46 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:13 pm

And of course the Iron Dome now has to he reloaded at great cost financially and in materiel.
Iron dome is bankrolled by the yanks to the tune of nine figures
The productive capacity of the US and the wealth it creates is a wonder to behold. Just imagine if their largesse was used for good causes instead of war.

Why don’t you think something that saves countless civilian lives from dying indiscriminately per annum is a good thing?

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:00 pm**

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:28 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:24 pm
Perry Taul wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 7:46 pm

Iron dome is bankrolled by the yanks to the tune of nine figures
The productive capacity of the US and the wealth it creates is a wonder to behold. Just imagine if their largesse was used for good causes instead of war.
Why don’t you think something that saves countless civilian lives from dying indiscriminately per annum is a good thing?

It didn't save 30,000 or more civilians in Gaza nor the 250 murdered in the West Bank in the last six months. They too were under the Dome.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:39 pm**

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:00 pm
Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:28 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:24 pm

The productive capacity of the US and the wealth it creates is a wonder to behold. Just imagine if their largesse was used for good causes instead of war.
Why don’t you think something that saves countless civilian lives from dying indiscriminately per annum is a good thing?
It didn't save 30,000 or more civilians in Gaza nor the 250 murdered in the West Bank in the last six months. They too were under the Dome.

They weren’t

Should I take that as a no then? You don’t think a system that saves countless civilians from dying indiscriminately every year is a good thing?

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:42 pm**

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:39 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:00 pm
Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:28 pm

Why don’t you think something that saves countless civilian lives from dying indiscriminately per annum is a good thing?
It didn't save 30,000 or more civilians in Gaza nor the 250 murdered in the West Bank in the last six months. They too were under the Dome.
They weren’t

Should I take that as a no then? You don’t think a system that saves countless civilians from dying indiscriminately every year is a good thing?

Maybe this system could be extended to Gaza.

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:53 pm**

Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:42 pm
Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:39 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:00 pm

It didn't save 30,000 or more civilians in Gaza nor the 250 murdered in the West Bank in the last six months. They too were under the Dome.
They weren’t

Should I take that as a no then? You don’t think a system that saves countless civilians from dying indiscriminately every year is a good thing?
Maybe this system could be extended to Gaza.

In that case, given I’ve offered you two opportunities

I’ll take it as a no and you don’t think a system that protects civilians from indiscriminate killing is a good thing. I can’t say I’m surprised.

If I’m wrong then by all means please speak up in favour of Iron dome protecting civilians within Israel

Posted: **Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:02 pm**

Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:53 pm
Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:42 pm
Currywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:39 pm
They weren’t

Should I take that as a no then? You don’t think a system that saves countless civilians from dying indiscriminately every year is a good thing?
Maybe this system could be extended to Gaza.
In that case, given I’ve offered you two opportunities

I’ll take it as a no and you don’t think a system that protects civilians from indiscriminate killing is a good thing. I can’t say I’m surprised.

If I’m wrong then by all means please speak up in favour of Iron dome protecting civilians within Israel

Didn't save one of 1200 on October 7th or any of the 250 hostages. £1.3 billion wisely invested then & they wouldnt of needed to waste it overnight. Spectacular own goal from Nasty Netty

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