The actual Government stats on COVID 19

[Norman_S_ Fletcher]

From the Government (today):

"As of 9am on 27 March 2020, a total of 113,777 people have been tested, of which 99,234 were confirmed negative and 14,543 were confirmed positive.
As of 5pm on 26 March 2020, 759 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
The figures for test results and for deaths are compiled from different sources. This is why the figures for deaths are reported from an earlier point in time than the figures for test results."

We've established that Coronavirus cover a whole host of viruses including the common cold and other respiratory conditions. So this pandemic is specifically COVID 19.

That last paragraph about the rest results bothers me. All those reports actually were properly tested? To get a definitive test for COVID 19 the Government site gives this:

"Samples that are positive on initial testing by the regional laboratory will be considered as presumptive positives and will be referred to PHE Colindale for confirmatory testing. Presumptive positive results will be telephoned and contact tracing should commence immediately."

Without a laboratory test it is assumed the patient has COVID 19.

Hardly the 250K deaths we were expecting was it???

[Mikero]

Still a bit early for that last statement, the peak could be another two weeks, but then I hope you are more right than wrong.

Mikero

[Norman_S_ Fletcher]

Yes I sincerely hope I'm right. Lets wait and see how this whole thing pans out with the flu season approaching the end anyway.

Im having serious doubts about all this.

[Top of the JES]

Prepare for the worst.....hope for the best.

[Mick McQuaid]

Really not sure what you think you've uncovered there. Of course the figures come from different sources, test results cone from a lab and deaths are reported by hospitals.

The deaths reported are for those people who have tested positive, there are no assumed cases in that figure. As everyone in hospital with flu like symptoms or presenting with respiratory problems is being tested, and it's obvious that the deaths will lag some way behind admission the figure is about as precise as it's possible to get. There might be a tiny number who present so late a test result might not be received in time, I would assume they would just not be counted. Slightly more tricky is is that the figure is just for people tested positive who have died, it doesn't show absolute causation that the infection was the cause of death. I would think that number is pretty minute too.

In the fullness of time we will be able to see the stats on the increase in deaths above the norm over this period. It's likely it will be considerably lower than the deaths immediately attributed but unless anyone is suggesting we just tell the old and ill to go off and die it doesn't change the approach needed or the impact on the health service.

The 250,000 figure was a projection from the government's previous plan of trying to slow the spread. The last figure quoted was an estimate of 20,000 if the measures brought in work. Any model relies on so many assumptions, particularly for a new disease where every country is doing things slightly differently, that they aren't much more than an educated guess.

[Dohnut]

From the Government (today):

"As of 9am on 27 March 2020, a total of 113,777 people have been tested, of which 99,234 were confirmed negative and 14,543 were confirmed positive.
As of 5pm on 26 March 2020, 759 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
The figures for test results and for deaths are compiled from different sources. This is why the figures for deaths are reported from an earlier point in time than the figures for test results."

We've established that Coronavirus cover a whole host of viruses including the common cold and other respiratory conditions. So this pandemic is specifically COVID 19.

That last paragraph about the rest results bothers me. All those reports actually were properly tested? To get a definitive test for COVID 19 the Government site gives this:

"Samples that are positive on initial testing by the regional laboratory will be considered as presumptive positives and will be referred to PHE Colindale for confirmatory testing. Presumptive positive results will be telephoned and contact tracing should commence immediately."

Without a laboratory test it is assumed the patient has COVID 19.

Hardly the 250K deaths we were expecting was it???

This is a massive post. Source please.

[Thor]

So the death rate is 5% of positive tested people.

[Top of the JES]

According to yahoo news a study by an eminent virologist has modelled the likely death toll at around 7000.

[DonaldRocks]

Yes I sincerely hope I'm right. Lets wait and see how this whole thing pans out with the flu season approaching the end anyway.

Im having serious doubts about all this.

Please stop comparing this to the flu. Next you will be talking about road deaths, cancer and heart attacks. When you have a new virus you don't do what this Government did and go for a herd mentality. This may be strategy down the lines when enough people recover and we know their antibodies work. Playing "Russian Roulette" with people's health is not the way to go.

Everybody would love to be out and about and earning a living.

These are not normal times. Questions will be asked, Why the UK switched their policy so late?, Why is it the UK was so late to the game in acquiring PPE and Ventilators? Why was it down to individual sporting organisations to call off and cancel sporting events with no leadership from anybody in Government? Why were Pubs left open? Why were Universities and schools left open so long? How many people who needed critical cancer care or other life threatening surgery have been affected due to lack of preparedness? So many questions!

Some of the figures coming out of autocratic countries cannot be relied on.

The stats coming out of Italy and Spain are gut wrenching.

[BoniO]

So the death rate is 5% of positive tested people.

It's not a straight line graph. It will vary. One major component is ICU capacity. Italy shows that as ICU capacity is exceeded then the death rate soars as appropriate treatment is not available.

[Thor]

That makes sense Bonio, I just hope our scientists are smarter than other countries scientists and that they’ve called it right in their timings of events. I actually pray that they have got it right.

[Norman_S_ Fletcher]

From the Government (today):

"As of 9am on 27 March 2020, a total of 113,777 people have been tested, of which 99,234 were confirmed negative and 14,543 were confirmed positive.
As of 5pm on 26 March 2020, 759 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
The figures for test results and for deaths are compiled from different sources. This is why the figures for deaths are reported from an earlier point in time than the figures for test results."

We've established that Coronavirus cover a whole host of viruses including the common cold and other respiratory conditions. So this pandemic is specifically COVID 19.

That last paragraph about the rest results bothers me. All those reports actually were properly tested? To get a definitive test for COVID 19 the Government site gives this:

"Samples that are positive on initial testing by the regional laboratory will be considered as presumptive positives and will be referred to PHE Colindale for confirmatory testing. Presumptive positive results will be telephoned and contact tracing should commence immediately."

Without a laboratory test it is assumed the patient has COVID 19.

Hardly the 250K deaths we were expecting was it???

This is a massive post. Source please.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... the-public

[Dohnut]

From the Government (today):

"As of 9am on 27 March 2020, a total of 113,777 people have been tested, of which 99,234 were confirmed negative and 14,543 were confirmed positive.
As of 5pm on 26 March 2020, 759 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.
The figures for test results and for deaths are compiled from different sources. This is why the figures for deaths are reported from an earlier point in time than the figures for test results."

We've established that Coronavirus cover a whole host of viruses including the common cold and other respiratory conditions. So this pandemic is specifically COVID 19.

That last paragraph about the rest results bothers me. All those reports actually were properly tested? To get a definitive test for COVID 19 the Government site gives this:

"Samples that are positive on initial testing by the regional laboratory will be considered as presumptive positives and will be referred to PHE Colindale for confirmatory testing. Presumptive positive results will be telephoned and contact tracing should commence immediately."

Without a laboratory test it is assumed the patient has COVID 19.

Hardly the 250K deaths we were expecting was it???

This is a massive post. Source please.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... the-public

Thanks

[Mick McQuaid]

According to yahoo news a study by an eminent virologist has modelled the likely death toll at around 7000.

Is that this one?
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/w.t.pike

Described in moat articles this morning as a colleague of Neil Ferguson, I suppose technically he is but it's a bit misleading. From what I gather his assumption is that we'll all converge on the trajectory China showed, which seems quite obviously hopelessly optimistic. Some of what he puts as his upper limits look like they will be passed in the next few days.

[Top of the JES]

Hi Mick hope you are feeling OK how are your symptoms now?

The article I saw did not publish the study but gave an overview of the findings, I think 7,000 is optimistic given the current upward curve, It's going to take a massive effect from the current isolation/distancing measures to keep it anywhere near that mark I suspect.

[Norman_S_ Fletcher]

Another quote from the Govt:

Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-conseq ... eases-hcid

[Mick McQuaid]

Thanks for asking, I'm absolutely fine. Back to thinking it was just a bad cold.

[Norman_S_ Fletcher]

Did you know that there is no known reliable test for Covid 19?

I can find a quote here from Wikipedia:

"Due to limited testing, as of March 2020 no countries had reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in their population.[102] This variability also affects reported case-fatality rates."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

Sorry folks but the B*lls**t is getting stronger all the time about this.

[Norman_S_ Fletcher]

Quote from Public Health England:

In week 12 2020, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall in England,

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... W4trBmlEqo


Now.... Can we PLEEEASE get back to normal.

[Stowaway]

Did you know that there is no known reliable test for Covid 19?

I can find a quote here from Wikipedia:

"Due to limited testing, as of March 2020 no countries had reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in their population.[102] This variability also affects reported case-fatality rates."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

Sorry folks but the B*lls**t is getting stronger all the time about this.

It’s on Wikipedia? Must be true then.

FFS Ling.

[Norman_S_ Fletcher]

From 500,000 projected deaths a week ago

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

Now down to 5700. After just ONE WEEK of the lockdown.

Penny dropped yet?

[Real Al]

Does anyone remember that complete freaking nutjob conspiracy theorist who used to post on here? Got banned for something or other.

[Thor]

Who the solider guy?

[Real Al]

Nah, ran a museum or something.

[Thor]

So lucky has been banned has he? What did he finally do to get booted off here then?