Labour Watch

[Admin]

Not all of this falls at the feet of Labour 2.0 but the NI rises do hit smaller businesses running on very tight margins. Our staff NI increases will cost £10k pa - we're fortunate that as a small business we can carry it (although it does impact on the ability to increase salaries or recruit).

The Employers NI rejig hasn't even kicked in yet.

Nope but I'm sure like other small businesses, we're having to make adjustments in advance for it. Couldn't give a f*** about Sainsburys and the like who can easily afford it but for those at the sh*tty end of the economy, (ie almost everyone) it stings.

[Admin]

Small businesses can cope with the NI increase. We are only a small outfit of 5 people, but what we’ve done is add 10p on to the price of our most popular item (inner tubes) and that will cover it for the year. It’s not difficult.

Good for you and it's a nice generalisation but we work in a service industry which is dominated by larger companies who are already wiping out smaller independent firms like ours. I'd love to increase charges across the board but our major clients are public bodies who are massively cost conscious and will just shift their work elsewhere which will leave us without a business at all.

We've had our business 20 years - when we started, there were maybe 15-20 similar sized firms to us in a 10 mile radius. Now there's us and 1 other. The rest have been swept away or hoovered up by the big firms. At best, I think we've got 3-5 years left before we'll have to throw the towel in. Which will leave 7 people (most of whom have been here for 15+ years) looking for employment. It's small beer in the overall scheme of things but not when you consider how many SME's will fail over the next 2-3 years.

[Hoover Attack]

Small businesses can cope with the NI increase. We are only a small outfit of 5 people, but what we’ve done is add 10p on to the price of our most popular item (inner tubes) and that will cover it for the year. It’s not difficult.

I realise I'm in danger of becoming a defender of sirkier and his shitmob, which i'm not happy about, but lots of small businesses won't even be impacted by the change.

[Dunners]

Record jump in number of businesses in financial distress.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vmrpdrk4eo

Been predicting this for a while - always thought the economy was heading this way since late 2023 and in my opinion why Sunak bailed out in July and not in December (not that it did the Tories any good).

Not all of this falls at the feet of Labour 2.0 but the NI rises do hit smaller businesses running on very tight margins. Our staff NI increases will cost £10k pa - we're fortunate that as a small business we can carry it (although it does impact on the ability to increase salaries or recruit).

Retailers generally are in deep sh*t. Seeing lots of independent traders throw the towel in which leads to more empty shops and less populated high streets and now retail parks are feeling the same effect. Office market is still heavily affected post-Covid with hybrid working meaning less uptake of empty space which then hits surrounding businesses reliant on trade from office workers. Commercial property demand is now centered around high-bay warehouse space for logistics and not industrial uses. Think we're really paying the price for Amazon's presence in the retail sector and sh*t planning allowing so much out-of-town retail development since the early 90's which has killed off traditional retail positions.

It's about to get even worse for Labour.

I met with Pennycook's team in MHCLG and explained how an estimated 3million flats in <11meter buildings are at risk of adverse findings from FRAEWs. Insurers will insist on either 10 fold increases in premiums, but only if blocks are remediated to EWS1 B1 rating, or major remediation works (and costs) to EWS1 A1 rating. Either way, huge implications for service charges and likely to result in massive failures throughout mortgage market.

Options for government are to either accept the destitution of c3million households (most will be located in city centre Labour constituencies), or find a spare £70billion (that's HS2-level budget) down the back of the sofa just to throw more good money after bad. This sh*t is likely to hit the fan and be on your breakfast news by about 2028.

The reaction from the team seemed to be one of delirious exasperation. I got the impression that they're are facing a torrent of bad news daily from every direction and are drowning, and they just do not have the bandwidth to cope with anything other than what is presenting itself as each respective day's priority.

[Dunners]

Small businesses can cope with the NI increase. We are only a small outfit of 5 people, but what we’ve done is add 10p on to the price of our most popular item (inner tubes) and that will cover it for the year. It’s not difficult.

Good for you and it's a nice generalisation but we work in a service industry which is dominated by larger companies who are already wiping out smaller independent firms like ours. I'd love to increase charges across the board but our major clients are public bodies who are massively cost conscious and will just shift their work elsewhere which will leave us without a business at all.

We've had our business 20 years - when we started, there were maybe 15-20 similar sized firms to us in a 10 mile radius. Now there's us and 1 other. The rest have been swept away or hoovered up by the big firms. At best, I think we've got 3-5 years left before we'll have to throw the towel in. Which will leave 7 people (most of whom have been here for 15+ years) looking for employment. It's small beer in the overall scheme of things but not when you consider how many SME's will fail over the next 2-3 years.

Same happening in resi-block management, with the middle of the market being gutted and acquired buy the likes of First Port.

[Admin]

Record jump in number of businesses in financial distress.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vmrpdrk4eo

Been predicting this for a while - always thought the economy was heading this way since late 2023 and in my opinion why Sunak bailed out in July and not in December (not that it did the Tories any good).

Not all of this falls at the feet of Labour 2.0 but the NI rises do hit smaller businesses running on very tight margins. Our staff NI increases will cost £10k pa - we're fortunate that as a small business we can carry it (although it does impact on the ability to increase salaries or recruit).

Retailers generally are in deep sh*t. Seeing lots of independent traders throw the towel in which leads to more empty shops and less populated high streets and now retail parks are feeling the same effect. Office market is still heavily affected post-Covid with hybrid working meaning less uptake of empty space which then hits surrounding businesses reliant on trade from office workers. Commercial property demand is now centered around high-bay warehouse space for logistics and not industrial uses. Think we're really paying the price for Amazon's presence in the retail sector and sh*t planning allowing so much out-of-town retail development since the early 90's which has killed off traditional retail positions.

It's about to get even worse for Labour.

I met with Pennycook's team in MHCLG and explained how an estimated 3million flats in <11meter buildings are at risk of adverse findings from FRAEWs. Insurers will insist on either 10 fold increases in premiums, but only if blocks are remediated to EWS1 B1 rating, or major remediation works (and costs) to EWS1 A1 rating. Either way, huge implications for service charges and likely to result in massive failures throughout mortgage market.

Options for government are to either accept the destitution of c3million households (most will be located in city centre Labour constituencies), or find a spare £70billion (that's HS2-level budget) down the back of the sofa just to throw more good money after bad. This sh*t is likely to hit the fan and be on your breakfast news by about 2028.

The reaction from the team seemed to be one of delirious exasperation. I got the impression that they're are facing a torrent of bad news daily from every direction and are drowning, and they just do not have the bandwidth to cope with anything other than what is presenting itself as each respective day's priority.

Was at an RICS open forum recently - amazed at the number of surveyors working in this field who seem utterly ignorant of this looming disaster and just think continuing to build poo poo sub standard high rise accommodation is the way forwards. It was like I'd laid a sh*t on the table when I started to bang on about the societal impacts this type of build has (already evidenced throughout the 70's 80's and 90's with the 50's and 60's built high-rises).

Have previously managed lots of LA owned 50's built blocks. Many of which had life spans of 30 years maximum and are still standing.

We're f*cked aren't we?

[Admin]

Small businesses can cope with the NI increase. We are only a small outfit of 5 people, but what we’ve done is add 10p on to the price of our most popular item (inner tubes) and that will cover it for the year. It’s not difficult.

Good for you and it's a nice generalisation but we work in a service industry which is dominated by larger companies who are already wiping out smaller independent firms like ours. I'd love to increase charges across the board but our major clients are public bodies who are massively cost conscious and will just shift their work elsewhere which will leave us without a business at all.

We've had our business 20 years - when we started, there were maybe 15-20 similar sized firms to us in a 10 mile radius. Now there's us and 1 other. The rest have been swept away or hoovered up by the big firms. At best, I think we've got 3-5 years left before we'll have to throw the towel in. Which will leave 7 people (most of whom have been here for 15+ years) looking for employment. It's small beer in the overall scheme of things but not when you consider how many SME's will fail over the next 2-3 years.

Same happening in resi-block management, with the middle of the market being gutted and acquired buy the likes of First Port.

Yep. That being said, I've been offered a few blocks recently that are managed by the bigger firms and I've turned them all down as they're utter hospital passes - most are massively underfunded and in serious disrepair with absent leaseholders who've no interest in finding £20-50k to fund major works. Those still living in these never realised that one day they'd have to pay for it all.

[Dunners]

30+ years of deregulation in the construction industry is coming to a head towards the end of this decade. The public, many politicians, construction firms and industry 'experts' have no idea of just how bad this is going to be.

But, I happen to know that some of the banks and insurers are beginning to suss it out.

[Hoover Attack]

So where's the money gone? Where is it now sitting?

[Admin]

It's going to be hideous.

Still lots of public bodies that haven't got to grips with RAAC either. Suspect there's still loads of that stuff lying about undiscovered or ignored. Until of course when there's another collapse somewhere which will bring on another bout of hand wringing.

[Dunners]

So where's the money gone? Where is it now sitting?

Some of it never existed. The rest has been flushed through to off-shore holdings.

[Hoover Attack]

FFS, not again.

Why is there no other way?

[Admin]

So where's the money gone? Where is it now sitting?

Dunno. Any ideas?

On the issue of local authority building stock, I can only point you at the last 40 years of underinvestment, austerity and right to buy. LA's make up a huge % of buildings / across the UK. Many of which are beyond life-span and beyond saving.

A very prime example of this is the bridge at Broadmead Road. LBR are quite publicly stating they have no money to repair what is a major traffic link that has been in a state of disrepair for 15+ years.

[Dunners]

Local Authority budgets are increasingly weighted towards funding social and elderly services. They have nothing left over for infrastructure.

We either need to give them more money, or kill off the poor and old.

[Currywurst and Chips]

Has anyone suggested reducing net migration from 900k PA?

[Long slender neck]

Soooo dont buy a flat is what you guys are saying?

[Dunners]

Has anyone suggested reducing net migration from 900k PA?

That's a different sh*tstorm to the sh*tstorm FTC and I are discussing.

[Hoover Attack]

Soooo dont buy a flat is what you guys are saying?

I think they're saying get the f**k out of dodge.

[Dunners]

Soooo dont buy a flat is what you guys are saying?

Don't buy:

Any new-build flat or house "on spec".
Any new-build flat or house per se (you have more consumer protection buying a kettle from Argos).
Any flat in a purpose-built block where the vendor is unable to produce a fully-costed CapEx plan for either a sufficient time period (i.e. 30 years) or the design life of the building - and - can evidence in the certified year-end accounts that there's an adequate reserve fund.
Any flat in a purpose-built block where the vendor is unable to evidence a satisfactory FRAEW/EWS1 or compliance with PAS9980, regardless of building height.
Any flat in a purpose-built block where the vendor is unable to evidence a satisfactory FRAEW/EWS1 or compliance with PAS9980, regardless of building height.

If you disregard the above then you hare taking a massive gamble. And, even if your building is okay, you'll still be affected by the consequences of the sh*tshow affecting those buildings that are.

Most of these buildings could work just fine on a Build-to-Rent basis. But they're just not viable as a home ownership product. Millions of people have been lied to, and we're running out of ways to keep that lie alive.

[Dunners]

Anyway, back to Labour. The state of this:



https://questions-statements.parliament ... 1-15/24154

[StillSpike]

Soooo dont buy a flat is what you guys are saying?

Don't buy:

Any new-build flat or house "on spec".
Any new-build flat or house per se (you have more consumer protection buying a kettle from Argos).

What's the issue with new build houses ? I understand the cladding thing (I think) with flats but what's the risk with buying a new build house?

[StillSpike]

And - are the flats at the corners of Brisbane Road a similar risk ?

[Hoover Attack]

Anyway, back to Labour. The state of this:



https://questions-statements.parliament ... 1-15/24154

Thought you'd be well up for this?

[Long slender neck]

Presumably to protect purple hair dye?

[Dunners]

Soooo dont buy a flat is what you guys are saying?

Don't buy:

Any new-build flat or house "on spec".
Any new-build flat or house per se (you have more consumer protection buying a kettle from Argos).

What's the issue with new build houses ? I understand the cladding thing (I think) with flats but what's the risk with buying a new build house?

Poor quality workmanship and design and construction defects. They're rife. And, unless you're lucky to have a house builder with a conscience, you'll need very deep pockets and be willing to spend many years litigating against them, if they're reluctant to remediate to an appropriate standard.

You also have to factor in that many defects can take years to emerge, by which time you'll find the housebuilder built the estate through a SPV which will have since ceased trading, so you're proper f*cked.