Brentford fc

[CreamofSumYungGai]

They’re not.
4m loss.

All it would take is for one of their recent signings to go for 15m+ and that's 4 season's worth of loss covered.

Provided they pick him up for nothing and no sell ons.
Keep up. They haven’t got a youth system.

Yes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.

[Max B Gold]

All it would take is for one of their recent signings to go for 15m+ and that's 4 season's worth of loss covered.

Provided they pick him up for nothing and no sell ons.
Keep up. They haven’t got a youth system.

Yes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.

I may be sentimental and saaaaad but for me not having a youth system robs the club of an improtant aspect of what it means to be a community club. If its just going to be run like any other business then I'm afraid I'm out.

[CreamofSumYungGai]

Sorry to hear that. I hope the club is able to continue without you attending your 1 away game a season.

[Scuba Diver]

So, 'their' new ground, has already been sold, and they're leasing it back?

Doesn't sound too promising

[Max B Gold]

Sorry to hear that. I hope the club is able to continue without you attending your 1 away game a season.

I attended 3 games last season. So get it right up you. I will also be attending the Port Vale game in September.

[Byways1]

All it would take is for one of their recent signings to go for 15m+ and that's 4 season's worth of loss covered.

Provided they pick him up for nothing and no sell ons.
Keep up. They haven’t got a youth system.

Yes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.

Yep it’s called signing players for millions of pounds and selling them them on at a profit.

[Red_Army]

Provided they pick him up for nothing and no sell ons.
Keep up. They haven’t got a youth system.

Yes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.

I may be sentimental and saaaaad but for me not having a youth system robs the club of an improtant aspect of what it means to be a community club. If its just going to be run like any other business then I'm afraid I'm out.

The system they run gives young cast-offs a second chance. That is surely good for the community. Like a football safety-net.

[Mistadobalina]

Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?

[spen666]

Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?

Perhaps when its off set by the one off sales of players.

Eg if weekly excess of expenditure over weekly income is £350k ( ie operating expenses), then this is a loss over a year of 52 x £350k = £18.2m

If player sales bring in £14.2 m then the annual loss taking into account the one of sales incole would bewould be £4m

[Byways1]

Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?

They sold players to balance the books(or not in this case)

[Red_Army]

Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?

They sold players to balance the books(or not in this case)

Neal Maupay was sold in the summer for £20M. With your numbers, that means they only have to find one Maupay every 5 years, or the equivalent, for the system to work.

[Max B Gold]

Yes, because they're using a well known and well documented system which doesn't require a youth system.

I may be sentimental and saaaaad but for me not having a youth system robs the club of an improtant aspect of what it means to be a community club. If its just going to be run like any other business then I'm afraid I'm out.

The system they run gives young cast-offs a second chance. That is surely good for the community. Like a football safety-net.

Not really.

[Byways1]

Not an accountant, but how does losing 350k a week equate to a £4 million annual loss?

They sold players to balance the books(or not in this case)

Neal Maupay was sold in the summer for £20M. With your numbers, that means they only have to find one Maupay every 5 years, or the equivalent, for the system to work.

More like 16m and 20% going back to France.
But financially a good deal.
Now they’ve got to replace his 37 goals in 85 games.
Good luck with that.

[Disoriented]

They sold players to balance the books(or not in this case)

Neal Maupay was sold in the summer for £20M. With your numbers, that means they only have to find one Maupay every 5 years, or the equivalent, for the system to work.

More like 16m and 20% going back to France.
But financially a good deal.
Now they’ve got to replace his 37 goals in 85 games.
Good luck with that.

Alabi may be on the market soon.

[point nine one eight]

Neal Maupay was sold in the summer for £20M. With your numbers, that means they only have to find one Maupay every 5 years, or the equivalent, for the system to work.

More like 16m and 20% going back to France.
But financially a good deal.
Now they’ve got to replace his 37 goals in 85 games.
Good luck with that.

Alabi may be on the market soon.

Please I really hope so

[Horient]

A good friend of mine’s older brother was actually on the board of Brentford and is close friends with Matt Benham, the owner and man behind their statistical model. He also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark who take a similar approach.

Just a few examples of where the model works below;

Scott Hogan - 900k sold for 9.4m after 1.5 seasons.
Neal Maupay - 1.9m sold for 19.8m after 2 seasons
Konsa - 2.5m sold for 11.97m after a year.
Sawyers - Free sold for 2.88m after 3 seasons
Bentley - Free sold for 1.98m after 3 seasons
Chris Mepham - Free sold for 12.1m after 2.5 seasons.
Ryan Woods - 1.2m sold for 6.5m after 3.5 years.

I’ve obviously chosen good examples but the net after all of the sales on these is 58m over the past 4 years. That’s around a 880% return on those 7 assets.

They apparently guarantee players they will always play & be sold after a certain period of time or if a bid comes in for a certain amount where the model dictates they are getting the optimum value for the player against the value they were bought for. This takes into account age, position etc.

A good example being Konsa who was apparently torn between Villa and Brentford. Brentford persuaded him to join by guaranteeing him first team football and being sold after a certain amount of games or if a bid came in for a certain value instead of sitting behind John Terry and Collins at Villa a few seasons ago. Ironically he has now gone to Villa for 9.4m more than they were bidding just 1.5 years earlier.

A good example of someone who might leave soon would be Ollie Watkins signed from Exeter in July 2017 for 1.8m and will easily move on for 8m plus. They have an entire team of back up transfers who they believe can replace each player for cheaper if they leave and will in turn sell them on after a few seasons for a profit.

I don’t know enough in terms of financial viability in the long term but I imagine if you can find a Scott Hogan, Neal Maupay or Konsa every two seasons or so it should keep it all ticking over nicely and would wipe out a year where they did make a loss

[Disoriented]

A good friend of mine’s older brother was actually on the board of Brentford and is close friends with Matt Benham, the owner and man behind their statistical model. He also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark who take a similar approach.

Just a few examples of where the model works below;

Scott Hogan - 900k sold for 9.4m after 1.5 seasons.
Neal Maupay - 1.9m sold for 19.8m after 2 seasons
Konsa - 2.5m sold for 11.97m after a year.
Sawyers - Free sold for 2.88m after 3 seasons
Bentley - Free sold for 1.98m after 3 seasons
Chris Mepham - Free sold for 12.1m after 2.5 seasons.
Ryan Woods - 1.2m sold for 6.5m after 3.5 years.

I’ve obviously chosen good examples but the net after all of the sales on these is 58m over the past 4 years. That’s around a 880% return on those 7 assets.

They apparently guarantee players they will always play & be sold after a certain period of time or if a bid comes in for a certain amount where the model dictates they are getting the optimum value for the player against the value they were bought for. This takes into account age, position etc.

A good example being Konsa who was apparently torn between Villa and Brentford. Brentford persuaded him to join by guaranteeing him first team football and being sold after a certain amount of games or if a bid came in for a certain value instead of sitting behind John Terry and Collins at Villa a few seasons ago. Ironically he has now gone to Villa for 9.4m more than they were bidding just 1.5 years earlier.

A good example of someone who might leave soon would be Ollie Watkins signed from Exeter in July 2017 for 1.8m and will easily move on for 8m plus. They have an entire team of back up transfers who they believe can replace each player for cheaper if they leave and will in turn sell them on after a few seasons for a profit.

I don’t know enough in terms of financial viability in the long term but I imagine if you can find a Scott Hogan, Neal Maupay or Konsa every two seasons or so it should keep it all ticking over nicely and would wipe out a year where they did make a loss

Great post - very interesting indeed.

[Byways1]

A good friend of mine’s older brother was actually on the board of Brentford and is close friends with Matt Benham, the owner and man behind their statistical model. He also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark who take a similar approach.

Just a few examples of where the model works below;

Scott Hogan - 900k sold for 9.4m after 1.5 seasons.
Neal Maupay - 1.9m sold for 19.8m after 2 seasons
Konsa - 2.5m sold for 11.97m after a year.
Sawyers - Free sold for 2.88m after 3 seasons
Bentley - Free sold for 1.98m after 3 seasons
Chris Mepham - Free sold for 12.1m after 2.5 seasons.
Ryan Woods - 1.2m sold for 6.5m after 3.5 years.

I’ve obviously chosen good examples but the net after all of the sales on these is 58m over the past 4 years. That’s around a 880% return on those 7 assets.

They apparently guarantee players they will always play & be sold after a certain period of time or if a bid comes in for a certain amount where the model dictates they are getting the optimum value for the player against the value they were bought for. This takes into account age, position etc.

A good example being Konsa who was apparently torn between Villa and Brentford. Brentford persuaded him to join by guaranteeing him first team football and being sold after a certain amount of games or if a bid came in for a certain value instead of sitting behind John Terry and Collins at Villa a few seasons ago. Ironically he has now gone to Villa for 9.4m more than they were bidding just 1.5 years earlier.

A good example of someone who might leave soon would be Ollie Watkins signed from Exeter in July 2017 for 1.8m and will easily move on for 8m plus. They have an entire team of back up transfers who they believe can replace each player for cheaper if they leave and will in turn sell them on after a few seasons for a profit.

I don’t know enough in terms of financial viability in the long term but I imagine if you can find a Scott Hogan, Neal Maupay or Konsa every two seasons or so it should keep it all ticking over nicely and would wipe out a year where they did make a loss

Great post - very interesting indeed.

I think you will find that every football league clubs policy is to sell players for more than what they paid for them, but it has to be said their recruitment is second to none, they don’t appear to buy any duds.

[Horient]

A good friend of mine’s older brother was actually on the board of Brentford and is close friends with Matt Benham, the owner and man behind their statistical model. He also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark who take a similar approach.

Just a few examples of where the model works below;

Scott Hogan - 900k sold for 9.4m after 1.5 seasons.
Neal Maupay - 1.9m sold for 19.8m after 2 seasons
Konsa - 2.5m sold for 11.97m after a year.
Sawyers - Free sold for 2.88m after 3 seasons
Bentley - Free sold for 1.98m after 3 seasons
Chris Mepham - Free sold for 12.1m after 2.5 seasons.
Ryan Woods - 1.2m sold for 6.5m after 3.5 years.

I’ve obviously chosen good examples but the net after all of the sales on these is 58m over the past 4 years. That’s around a 880% return on those 7 assets.

They apparently guarantee players they will always play & be sold after a certain period of time or if a bid comes in for a certain amount where the model dictates they are getting the optimum value for the player against the value they were bought for. This takes into account age, position etc.

A good example being Konsa who was apparently torn between Villa and Brentford. Brentford persuaded him to join by guaranteeing him first team football and being sold after a certain amount of games or if a bid came in for a certain value instead of sitting behind John Terry and Collins at Villa a few seasons ago. Ironically he has now gone to Villa for 9.4m more than they were bidding just 1.5 years earlier.

A good example of someone who might leave soon would be Ollie Watkins signed from Exeter in July 2017 for 1.8m and will easily move on for 8m plus. They have an entire team of back up transfers who they believe can replace each player for cheaper if they leave and will in turn sell them on after a few seasons for a profit.

I don’t know enough in terms of financial viability in the long term but I imagine if you can find a Scott Hogan, Neal Maupay or Konsa every two seasons or so it should keep it all ticking over nicely and would wipe out a year where they did make a loss

Great post - very interesting indeed.

I think you will find that every football league clubs policy is to sell players for more than what they paid for them, but it has to be said their recruitment is second to none, they don’t appear to buy any duds.

Exactly that. When I mention the model I refer to their actual statistical model used that Benham created when running his betting business. It’s been adapted to take player attributes into account, future values etc like in the book ’Moneyball’ and like you mention seems to give them a much greater chance of not buying any duds!

If only Teague has contacts at Microsoft...

[Kitch’s Magic Toes]

I dont really get what you are saying? They are replacing good players with equal quality players, who are cheaper? Whys that not sustainable?

Are you being serious?
Was Moores a good replacement for Kitchen?
Finney for Griffiths?
The bloke who replaced the geezer we sold to Fulham for 1m
Not to mention the strike force we’ve got now.

I get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).

[Byways1]

I dont really get what you are saying? They are replacing good players with equal quality players, who are cheaper? Whys that not sustainable?

Are you being serious?
Was Moores a good replacement for Kitchen?
Finney for Griffiths?
The bloke who replaced the geezer we sold to Fulham for 1m
Not to mention the strike force we’ve got now.

I get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).

No, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.
To get a million pound for him was the best deal in the clubs history.
Anybody who saw him get torn apart at Oxford on the 6th May could see that.
Don’t think he ever played a league game for Fulham.
Who was the bloke we got in replacement from Port Vale?
Absolutely hopeless, and I think Ling gave him a 2/3 year contract so we were stuck with him.

[Byways1]

Great post - very interesting indeed.

I think you will find that every football league clubs policy is to sell players for more than what they paid for them, but it has to be said their recruitment is second to none, they don’t appear to buy any duds.

Exactly that. When I mention the model I refer to their actual statistical model used that Benham created when running his betting business. It’s been adapted to take player attributes into account, future values etc like in the book ’Moneyball’ and like you mention seems to give them a much greater chance of not buying any duds!

If only Teague has contacts at Microsoft...

Whatever they are using it is very successful.
Most clubs buy their share of duds who they end up stuck with, this mob seem to bang on the money with every signing.

[Kitch’s Magic Toes]

Are you being serious?
Was Moores a good replacement for Kitchen?
Finney for Griffiths?
The bloke who replaced the geezer we sold to Fulham for 1m
Not to mention the strike force we’ve got now.

I get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).

No, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.
To get a million pound for him was the best deal in the clubs history.
Anybody who saw him get torn apart at Oxford on the 6th May could see that.
Don’t think he ever played a league game for Fulham.
Who was the bloke we got in replacement from Port Vale?
Absolutely hopeless, and I think Ling gave him a 2/3 year contract so we were stuck with him.

Ah, you’re right. We only signed Mkindawire the following season, my mistake. Clayton Fortune is the donkey you’re thinking of.

[Byways1]

I get what you’re saying, but this is a terrible example. The bloke (Tamika Mkindawire) was a considerably better player than the geezer (Gabriel Zakuani).

No, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.
To get a million pound for him was the best deal in the clubs history.
Anybody who saw him get torn apart at Oxford on the 6th May could see that.
Don’t think he ever played a league game for Fulham.
Who was the bloke we got in replacement from Port Vale?
Absolutely hopeless, and I think Ling gave him a 2/3 year contract so we were stuck with him.

Ah, you’re right. We only signed Mkindawire the following season, my mistake. Clayton Fortune is the donkey you’re thinking of.

Cheers.
That’s him.
God he was awful.

[HARVEY T DENTON]

No, the bloke we sold to Fulham was Zakuani who I only ever thought was a L1 player.
To get a million pound for him was the best deal in the clubs history.
Anybody who saw him get torn apart at Oxford on the 6th May could see that.
Don’t think he ever played a league game for Fulham.
Who was the bloke we got in replacement from Port Vale?
Absolutely hopeless, and I think Ling gave him a 2/3 year contract so we were stuck with him.

Ah, you’re right. We only signed Mkindawire the following season, my mistake. Clayton Fortune is the donkey you’re thinking of.

Cheers.
That’s him.
God he was awful.

Enormous Dereks fault IIRC.