Election Watch

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Hoover Attack
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Hoover Attack »

Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:15 pm Whatever else anyone may think about Starmer and Labour, their careful navigation of the Brexit issue looks to be working.

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I don't understand the conclusion you've drawn from this?
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Currywurst and Chips
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Currywurst and Chips »

Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

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Are “Not working” as opposed to “unemployed”

Living off wealth? Unable to work because they’re signed off sick with anxiety? Or both?
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Proposition Joe wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:19 pm Students don't vote? Weren't they responsible for turfing Clegg out?
That was a targeted campaign though, wasn't it? I mean that generally, younger people (who will make up the bulk of that student demographic) are relatively absent at elections.
Hoover Attack
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Hoover Attack »

Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

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I'm assuming the 10,928 is not spread equally amongst those 5 categories?

The bars should be different widths to accurately represent the results, that is massively misleading.
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Currywurst and Chips
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Currywurst and Chips »

Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:19 pm The Tories just managing to hold on to half of homeowners who do not have a mortgage. Which, to be fair, is substantial proportion and will be well represented at the polls on the day. But all others are turning their backs on them.

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I’m no maths geek, but pretty sure 32% isn’t half :ugeek:
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Dunners
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Hoover Attack wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:20 pm
Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:15 pm Whatever else anyone may think about Starmer and Labour, their careful navigation of the Brexit issue looks to be working.

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I don't understand the conclusion you've drawn from this?
Labour position on Brexit in 2019 clearly spooked a lot of potential voters who were Leave. The Tories had a clearer message (get Brexit done) and clearly capitalised on that to get their majority.

Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. Therefore, my theory is that the messaging from Labour over the last few years has either reassured those same Leave voters or at least not alarmed them. Which, given that a lot of Labour insiders will be Remain voters, is quite a strategic achievement.

Basically, Starmer has fooled the thick f*ckers.
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Dunners
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Currywurst and Chips wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:21 pm
Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

Image
Are “Not working” as opposed to “unemployed”

Living off wealth? Unable to work because they’re signed off sick with anxiety? Or both?
I thick unemployed are those who are seeking employment but do not yet have any (including those on job seekers allowance). Not working is anyone else.
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Dunners
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Currywurst and Chips wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:24 pm
Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:19 pm The Tories just managing to hold on to half of homeowners who do not have a mortgage. Which, to be fair, is substantial proportion and will be well represented at the polls on the day. But all others are turning their backs on them.

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I’m no maths geek, but pretty sure 32% isn’t half :ugeek:
You're right. Have a biscuit.
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Dunners
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Hoover Attack wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:22 pm
Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:17 pm Labour relying on the unemployed and students shock! The thing with this though, is that the unemployed and students just do not tend to vote, regardless of how they respond to polls.

Image
I'm assuming the 10,928 is not spread equally amongst those 5 categories?

The bars should be different widths to accurately represent the results, that is massively misleading.
Fair point. I'll raise it at the committee.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Hoover Attack »

Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:27 pm
Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. T
Nah mate. You can't add (and Reform) in brackets when the Tory Leave voters are piling into there rather than Labour by 2:1.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Hoover Attack wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:40 pm
Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:27 pm
Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. T
Nah mate. You can't add (and Reform) in brackets when the Tory Leave voters are piling into there rather than Labour by 2:1.
I'm not trying anything here. Tory Leave voters are clearly going to be drawn by Reform UK, but it is also clear that Labour are managing to capture a fair whack of them too. No?
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Hoover Attack »

Only 1 in 3 of them. I don't think that can be classed as a success.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Er, given the toxicity of the whole Brexit debate and the mess Labour got itself into on that issue in 2019 (for which Starmer is also to blame - LOL), convincing any of those Tory Leave voters for them is a success.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Max B Gold »

Hoover Attack wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:49 pm Only 1 in 3 of them. I don't think that can be classed as a success.
It's very poor.

Sir Kid Starver needs to get more union flags behind him in all Labour broadcasts. Its the only way to capture the thick racist vote.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Currywurst and Chips »

There’s going to be so so much cope this next six weeks
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

I make this about right.

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Re: Election Watch

Post by The Mindsweep »

Gove is going away
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

In the past 14 years, he has been one of, if not the, most effective ministers at getting legislation through Parliament. All that snorting had an effect afterall.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by The Mindsweep »

Leadsom now on her way

FFS have we only got Hunt & Rees - Mogg left for the Potillo moment? The Tories doing what they do and spoiling the fun for everyone
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Re: Election Watch

Post by The Mindsweep »

Anyone fancy standing for the Tories?

Deadline 7th June or you're not on the ballot paper

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Re: Election Watch

Post by Max B Gold »

The Mindsweep wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 11:31 pm Anyone fancy standing for the Tories?

Deadline 7th June or you're not on the ballot paper

How many Labour seats need fillin'?

This is an implosion of the Tories.

The far right ones are deserting the sinking ship. Don't be fooled Tufton Street/Billionaires/CIA/MI5 have a plan. These fascists will be back.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Rich Tea Wellin »

Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:27 pm
Hoover Attack wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:20 pm
Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:15 pm Whatever else anyone may think about Starmer and Labour, their careful navigation of the Brexit issue looks to be working.

Image
I don't understand the conclusion you've drawn from this?
Labour position on Brexit in 2019 clearly spooked a lot of potential voters who were Leave. The Tories had a clearer message (get Brexit done) and clearly capitalised on that to get their majority.

Those same Leave voters are now less likely to vote Tory, and to vote Labour (and Reform UK) instead. Therefore, my theory is that the messaging from Labour over the last few years has either reassured those same Leave voters or at least not alarmed them. Which, given that a lot of Labour insiders will be Remain voters, is quite a strategic achievement.

Basically, Starmer has fooled the thick f*ckers.
Surely it’s more a combination of Brexit actually being done and therefore traditional Labour voters who had were Leave went to the other side. And the fact that the Tories have completely f*cked it up/the leavers didn’t actually get what they wanted out of it.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Rich Tea Wellin »

Dunners wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 2:13 pm First YouGov poll is in.

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Quite ironic, really, that Sunak killed off a load of his biggest supporter base with Eat Out To Help Out
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Give it to Jabo »

Gove and Leadsom: latest cowards to jump ship. Gove is 56, not a great age.
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Re: Election Watch

Post by Dunners »

Out if the top seven candidates from the first round of the 2019 Tory leadership contest, only one - Jeremy Hunt - is now standing to be a Tory MP.

At this rate it wouldn't surprise me if Sunak also declared that he was standing down.
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