RedDwarf 1881 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 8:29 am
Dunners wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 5:52 pm
Nah, I reckon Lithuania before Poland.
Does it matter which because if Russia attacks any NATO country we’re all involved and hello WW3
Yes.
If Ukraine does fall and if Russia is to eventually extend its reach beyond that border, then it would most likely be to form a land bridge between Belarus and Kaliningrad - the so-called Suwalki gap. And that means invading one of two possible countries - Poland or Lithuania.
Poland is getting itself armed to the teeth, so any Russian incursion will be met with a painful counterpunch. And, would almost certainly result in a NATO response. I also think think that if Poland thinks that is even a remote possibility, it it has the political and economic muscle to quickly acquire a nuke.
Lithuania, while a member of NATO, could be slightly different. It is certainly less of an economic and military opponent than Poland. It is more feasible that Putin would continue to try and sow division throughout Europe and to further undermine NATO collectiveness. And then, possibly, launch a ridiculously small incursion and occupy a tiny bit of Lithuanian forest on the border.
Technically, this would be an invasion, and Lithuania would want a response. But would NATO vote to invoke Article 5 and launch an all-out war on Russia, with all the risk that entails, just for a few square meters of useless forest? Possibly, but possibly not.
If it looked like NATO was going to respond, then Russia could quickly withdraw and de-escalate the situation. If NATO didn't respond, then that would pretty much spell its end, and the rest of the world would react accordingly. So my money is on Lithuania.
