CEB wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:40 pm
If Labour can’t beat Truss or Sunak, then they might as well give up
Unless the SNP vote collapses north of the border, for Labour to win a parliamentary majority they will have to win seats in England that they didn't even manage in 1997. The loss of those Scottish seats and the scale of the 2019 defeat cannot be underestimated. No Party has ever come back from that kind of defeat to win the next election. A 2024 election majority win for Labour has always been, and remains, an unlikely prospect.
What if Scotland's out of the picture by then? PM Truss can hardly get in the way of 10% or so of Scottish voters changing their minds and now wanting independence can she? You can't say "once you voted for one thing you can't want the opposite" - given her campaigning against Brexit and now advocating for a diamond-hard Brexit. Despite being Lib Dem, and now Tory.
So if Scotland wasn't in the WM parliament, does that make it easier or harder for English Labour to win in WM?
You ain't going anywhere, pal. Notwithstanding what Liz will do, if you think the rest of us are going to let you all just slide off and leave us with this sh*tshow, you've got another thing coming.
As for the hypothetic outcome for Labour, it may not make a huge difference based on the current alignment in politics. But it probably makes things slightly worse in that they then become even more reliant on English constituencies.
CEB wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:40 pm
If Labour can’t beat Truss or Sunak, then they might as well give up
Unless the SNP vote collapses north of the border, for Labour to win a parliamentary majority they will have to win seats in England that they didn't even manage in 1997. The loss of those Scottish seats and the scale of the 2019 defeat cannot be underestimated. No Party has ever come back from that kind of defeat to win the next election. A 2024 election majority win for Labour has always been, and remains, an unlikely prospect.
What if Scotland's out of the picture by then? PM Truss can hardly get in the way of 10% or so of Scottish voters changing their minds and now wanting independence can she? You can't say "once you voted for one thing you can't want the opposite" - given her campaigning against Brexit and now advocating for a diamond-hard Brexit. Despite being Lib Dem, and now Tory.
So if Scotland wasn't in the WM parliament, does that make it easier or harder for English Labour to win in WM?
Scottish Labour has 1 MP, Scottish conservatives 6 MPs. So as far as I can see, unless I’m missing something, it won’t make much difference in practice in simple electoral terms.
If the SNP’s support were to collapse for some reason, Labour would likely be the beneficiaries, but just taking Scotland out if the equation doesn’t make things rosier for Labour
Unless the SNP vote collapses north of the border, for Labour to win a parliamentary majority they will have to win seats in England that they didn't even manage in 1997. The loss of those Scottish seats and the scale of the 2019 defeat cannot be underestimated. No Party has ever come back from that kind of defeat to win the next election. A 2024 election majority win for Labour has always been, and remains, an unlikely prospect.
What if Scotland's out of the picture by then? PM Truss can hardly get in the way of 10% or so of Scottish voters changing their minds and now wanting independence can she? You can't say "once you voted for one thing you can't want the opposite" - given her campaigning against Brexit and now advocating for a diamond-hard Brexit. Despite being Lib Dem, and now Tory.
So if Scotland wasn't in the WM parliament, does that make it easier or harder for English Labour to win in WM?
You ain't going anywhere, pal. Notwithstanding what Liz will do, if you think the rest of us are going to let you all just slide off and leave us with this sh*tshow, you've got another thing coming.
As for the hypothetic outcome for Labour, it may not make a huge difference based on the current alignment in politics. But it probably makes things slightly worse in that they then become even more reliant on English constituencies.
For every one of you who wants us to stick around to assist with the shitshow, there seems to be plenty flagshaggers quite happy for us to go. Quite a lot of people up here who were "No" in 2014 cos they thought UK would get better are now so dismayed at the utter cuntery going on down there with the Tories (and those that put them in power) , that they see the only way to be clear of the venal, kleptocratic, dishonest wankfest that is Westminster is to go for Independence - whatever that might entail cannot be any worse.
On the other hand, I can honestly state I haven't met a single person who was "Yes" to independence 8 years ago who now thinks the Union is the better bet.
If I was still a young man, I would be seeking to leave England.
This has become an awful country, and I wish I could go somewhere else
In about 10 years we will have become a full on fascist country.
You young uns, should get the f*** out of here while you can
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:35 pm
If I was still a young man, I would be seeking to leave England.
This has become an awful country, and I wish I could go somewhere else
In about 10 years we will have become a full on fascist country.
You young uns, should get the f*** out of here while you can
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:35 pm
If I was still a young man, I would be seeking to leave England.
This has become an awful country, and I wish I could go somewhere else
In about 10 years we will have become a full on fascist country.
You young uns, should get the f*** out of here while you can
Totally agree, if my wife didn't have cancer we would have already left.
Seriously considering moving north of the border if her treatmemt goes well
My paternal grandparents are from Angus so have some Scottish heritage.
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:35 pm
If I was still a young man, I would be seeking to leave England.
This has become an awful country, and I wish I could go somewhere else
In about 10 years we will have become a full on fascist country.
You young uns, should get the f*** out of here while you can
Totally agree, if my wife didn't have cancer we would have already left.
Seriously considering moving north of the border if her treatmemt goes well
My paternal grandparents are from Angus so have some Scottish heritage.
Very sorry to hear your wife is unwell.
I wish her all the best, and she recovers quickly
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:35 pm
If I was still a young man, I would be seeking to leave England.
This has become an awful country, and I wish I could go somewhere else
In about 10 years we will have become a full on fascist country.
You young uns, should get the f*** out of here while you can
Totally agree, if my wife didn't have cancer we would have already left.
Seriously considering moving north of the border if her treatmemt goes well
My paternal grandparents are from Angus so have some Scottish heritage.
Very sorry to hear your wife is unwell.
I wish her all the best, and she recovers quickly
Good Luck with treatment as already stated
Thanks to both of you for the best wishes.
She has had chemo, surgery, radiotherapy and now on combined antibody and chemo.
So far looking ok, but its a long old battle and not easy keeping healthy with a supressed immune system.
Had her fifth Covid vaccine last month and presumably another one in three months time.
I can't chance mixing much so doubt I will be getting to the O's this season, always next year, said that a few times.
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:35 pm
If I was still a young man, I would be seeking to leave England.
This has become an awful country, and I wish I could go somewhere else
In about 10 years we will have become a full on fascist country.
You young uns, should get the f*** out of here while you can
When I talk to my non British mates who live here, they say depressingly familiar stuff about their home country. There's a worldwide drop in confidence in governments to make a positive difference to people's lives, and you get a bunch of charlatans stepping into that void everywhere.
There's a small group of countries that seem to be holding it together - the Nordics, the lowlands, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland - but it's kind of incredible how febrile it is in most places right now. You've had 14 years of barely muddling by economically in Europe, with covid and now the Russian invasion/squeeze on energy chucked into that. Everything seems quite f*cked.
Not that Labour look great right now but I do think they beat either Sunak or Truss. For an incredibly mundane and non-ideological looking leadership, they then have an enormous amount of pressure on them to get a hell of a lot of stuff sorted in probably a very short period of time. The most important of which is to change the voting system and break the hold the Tories have over the country.
The other man's grass is always greener
The sun shines brighter on the other side
The other man's grass is always greener
Some are lucky, some are not
Just be thankful for what you've got
ComeOnYouOs wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:35 pm
If I was still a young man, I would be seeking to leave England.
This has become an awful country, and I wish I could go somewhere else
In about 10 years we will have become a full on fascist country.
You young uns, should get the f*** out of here while you can
When I talk to my non British mates who live here, they say depressingly familiar stuff about their home country. There's a worldwide drop in confidence in governments to make a positive difference to people's lives, and you get a bunch of charlatans stepping into that void everywhere.
There's a small group of countries that seem to be holding it together - the Nordics, the lowlands, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland - but it's kind of incredible how febrile it is in most places right now. You've had 14 years of barely muddling by economically in Europe, with covid and now the Russian invasion/squeeze on energy chucked into that. Everything seems quite f*cked.
Not that Labour look great right now but I do think they beat either Sunak or Truss. For an incredibly mundane and non-ideological looking leadership, they then have an enormous amount of pressure on them to get a hell of a lot of stuff sorted in probably a very short period of time. The most important of which is to change the voting system and break the hold the Tories have over the country.
Failure of policies in social democratic culture after the financial crash has given into the movement of fascism and nationalism that the tightening of countries belts has created. I hope we’re getting towards the end of that period in history, and could start to have parties that are able to care for its citizens rather than blaming everyone else.
I am less optimistic that the end of that period is that near however in the UK.
