Russia / Ukraine Watch

[Dunners]

Or you're unable to see what is there. Do you really think Macron's opponents wouldn't leverage that against him in the election? It may not be terminal for all of them, but it would be harmful.

[Give it to Jabo]

Johnson mentions ""substantial" sanctions without detailing what this in effect, means?

[tuffers#1]

Right, everyone ready for phase 2?

Some boarders above need putting right on a few points they are unsure of:

“It's not the same as the 30's, Russia is not looking to conquer Europe. Besides, they haven't got the capability to do so.”

True in part, however Russia would certainly like to bring a substantial part of Europe under its sphere of influence. Should it proceed to smash Ukraine, neighbouring states may start reconsidering their alliance options.

“I think Russia was always going to annex those two breakaway regions. Putin now has a land corridor to Crimea. The question now is will he go further. If he does then it’s war.”

Assuming Russia forces only occupy those areas controlled by separatist groups, it does not have a land corridor to Crimea. To gain the land corridor Russia will need to proceed past the current trenches and further into Ukrainian controlled territory.

Will he go further? Well, it would be incredibly stupid of him to have turned Russia into a pariah state and to incur all the coming sanctions if all he does is occupy what he effectively already had. A further invasion is almost certain. It is already war.

“Western governments are looking at what gets them votes, what happens in Ukraine doesn't play in most voters minds.”

Ordinarily this is true. But not right now. And this actually has me more worried.

Look back at recent clips of Johnson, Biden, Macron, Blinken and other allied world leaders (with a bit of an exception for the Germans) giving speeches and interviews on the crisis, and what they believe to be the risks. There is a pattern.

They are all being deliberately clear, unambiguous, and frank. There is no room for misunderstanding. There is no way any of them can claim to have been misunderstood should it suit them politically or domestically in future. Why would they do that? What do they know that has compelled so many of them to speak in such a way whereby they risk their own credibility?

I believe that most of the West has played this crisis as well as it could 9notwithstanding that we should have acted in 2014 and not been compromised by Russian money in the first place). All of the intelligence that has been revealed to us so far has turned out to be broadly correct. They have done two things:

1. They have shone a light on all of Russia’s intentions, to deny them any opportunity of credible deniability.

2. They have provided Putin an off-ramp for de-escalation, by offering up their own reputation as a sacrifice. He could have backed down and then mocked Biden, Johnson et al for being so spectacularly wrong and alarmist and lacking credibility. Yet he still chose war.

Why would they do that? Why would a sitting POTUS be prepared to risk his reputation and legacy? Why would Macron by willing to be humiliated by Putin – in an election year?

The existence of these questions worries me. Our leaders appear to be doing something we’re not used to and therefore are not recognising. They’re being statesmen. Every bit of intelligence they have shared with the public has been correct. What additional intelligence must they therefore have, which they have not yet shared with us, that is compelling them to act in this way?

“And the endgame is?”

Destruction of the world order you, I and everyone else on here has benefited from for the last 70 years. A system that has brought us unprecedented peace, security, health and prosperity. And something we have come to take for granted.

“Dunnem 1 v 0 Chomsky.”

Chomsky who?

What would happen if Putin was killed?

The Russian leadership is a rapidly aging and diminishing cabal. Killing Putin, or taking out a few of his close acquaintances, would effectively cut the head off the snake. Part of the reason for the coming sanctions is not just to punish those who are responsible, but to motivate those with the opportunity to assassinate him. For this threat to subside, Putin does need to die. But he knows that, and this makes him especially dangerous and unpredictable.

So youre saying its not simply a case of capitalism trying to crush communism ? There trying to knick communist money to?

[Give it to Jabo]

Johnson mentions ""substantial" sanctions without detailing what this in effect, means.

[Long slender neck]

What communism Tuffers? Surely Russia is just like China now, they believe in nothing expect hanging on to power?

[StillSpike]

I see that it's the far right wing-nuts like Farage and Banks who are "rootin' for Pootin" - so I doubt we can say Russia is Communist, can we?

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Sanctions announced against 3 Russians.

That’ll show em.

[Dunners]

Sanctioning 5 Russian banks (Rossiya Bank, IS bank, General Bank, Promsviazbank, Black Sea bank) and 3 oligarchs: Igor and Boris Rotenberg, and Gennadiy Timchenko. To say I'm underwhelmed would be an understatement.

[Max B Gold]

Dunnersky said:

"Why would they do that? Why would a sitting POTUS be prepared to risk his reputation and legacy? Why would Macron by willing to be humiliated by Putin – in an election year?

The existence of these questions worries me. Our leaders appear to be doing something we’re not used to and therefore are not recognising. They’re being statesmen. Every bit of intelligence they have shared with the public has been correct. What additional intelligence must they therefore have, which they have not yet shared with us, that is compelling them to act in this way?"

We're not here to answer questions that's your job.

My take is that the corruption of Western politics and economies by the Russians and their fellow travellers in weakening Europe, Nato, etc has been tolerated for too long and Western leaders see the latest land grab as being a step too far.

It was only possible because we are a democracy and our institutions and processes have been subverted using the power of the Internet with the assistance of paid for and useful idiots. The end goal is the elimination of democracy and rule by the 1%.

The abuse was perpetrated by fascists like Johnson Farage, Banks, Trump Bannon, le Penn, billionaires and the far right of the Tories etc.

For more information listen to "The Coming Storm" on Radio 4.

[tuffers#1]

What communism Tuffers? Surely Russia is just like China now, they believe in nothing expect hanging on to power?

Like Bodge & the T*ries you mean ?

[tuffers#1]

I see that it's the far right wing-nuts like Farage and Banks who are "rootin' for Pootin" - so I doubt we can say Russia is Communist, can we?

exactly , so why are the west still trying to destroy it ?

[Long slender neck]

I see that it's the far right wing-nuts like Farage and Banks who are "rootin' for Pootin" - so I doubt we can say Russia is Communist, can we?

exactly , so why are the west still trying to destroy it ?

How are they doing that?

[tuffers#1]

I see that it's the far right wing-nuts like Farage and Banks who are "rootin' for Pootin" - so I doubt we can say Russia is Communist, can we?

exactly , so why are the west still trying to destroy it ?

How are they doing that?

if you dont know you havent been paying attention .

[Give it to Jabo]

The sanctions imposed appear to minor; will have little impact. B J scarpered when pressed on Roman Abramovich. Do you think he is in hock to Russian high-finance?? Certainly, the Russians wanted Brexit.

[Dunners]

The sanctions imposed appear to minor; will have little impact. B J scarpered when pressed on Roman Abramovich. Do you think he is in hock to Russian high-finance?? Certainly, the Russians wanted Brexit.

I understand that there are more sanctions to come, so we're not seeing the full picture yet. But I'm still disappointed with what has been announced today. Gazprom in particular is conspicuous in its absence.

There's definitely a problem with the extent to which the UK has been infiltrated by Russian money. But that bubble has well and truly burst, and the Americans will kick our government in the bollocks if they do not keep in line. However, confirmation from the Germans that Nordstream 2 certification is on hold is definitely good news, even if they did have to be dragged kicking and screaming by Biden.

[George M]

The city doesn’t seem overly bothered. Markets up and , in particular , Russian companies or those working in Russia , up also

[George M]

And Russia has had sanctions attached to it for years. They know how to work around them. Many wealthy Russians have EU passports handed out by countries in the EU who still rely on Russian money. Slovakia being one example.

[Currywurst and Chips]

Different approaches

[Max B Gold]

And Russia has had sanctions attached to it for years. They know how to work around them. Many wealthy Russians have EU passports handed out by countries in the EU who still rely on Russian money. Slovakia being one example.

Putins job when working for the KGB in East Germany was to find ways around the Cold War sanctions on technology transfers from West to East. I'm sure he has made similar arrangements this time.

[slacker]

Who gives a toss about Squabbling Slavs? Bring back Galicia!

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[Eggski]

Russia was never truly communist. Stalin killed the real revolutionaries. Waited so long to even kill Trotsky . American are imperialists like UK and Russia and all the other countries that invaded and imprisoned anyone that didn't agree with them. So it's just a repeated record . Nothing new! Very sad that people are still killing each other over a flag....

[tuffers#1]

looking forward to seeing Putins next move as those sanctions arent going to hurt .

[RedDwarf 1881]

looking forward to seeing Putins next move as those sanctions arent going to hurt .

No , I don’t think they’ll hurt Russia either . It’ll just push Russia and China even closer together . Equally I can see both Finland and Sweden now applying for NATO membership . Basically the world has become that bit more dangerous place to live.

[tuffers#1]

always been dangerous .

[slacker]

Russia was never truly communist. Stalin killed the real revolutionaries. Waited so long to even kill Trotsky . American are imperialists like UK and Russia and all the other countries that invaded and imprisoned anyone that didn't agree with them. So it's just a repeated record . Nothing new! Very sad that people are still killing each other over a flag....

If you're referring to Leninism (and Trotsky when in power) they quickly embraced murderous Dictator traits too. (Un)Democratic Centralism is not my idea of Utopian Communism.