Russia / Ukraine Watch

[Jack]

The situation on the Russia/Ukraine border has been touched on, on other threads, but it deserves its own thread, so we can discuss it more.
I think its not bluster by the Russians, and they will attack.

When they do, what happens next. Ukraine has a largish army, twice the size of the British army, and they wont just fold up, though Russian superiority, will win in the end. There will be loss of life on both sides.

An interesting topic for me, is what will the West do, or what will America do?

When Putin grabbed Crimea, the yanks did very little. A few sanctions etc, but nothing too severe. Will they do much the same, or will they react more strongly, by sending forces into Ukraine to help them etc

Putin may well attack on Christmas Day, when the West is indulging in Christmas celebrations.

So what does everyone think?

[StillSpike]

May I ask what you do ?

Edit:

Sorry - ignore that. I read your post and thought it was Dunners - a senior moment. (I'd be happy to know what you "do", by the way - but Dunners' posts on this sort of thing make me think he's in the Foreign office or something, hence my interest)

[i8ubutler]

I thought Dunners was an international playboy and raconteur.

[StillSpike]

I think he might be a real life James Bond - or maybe even M.

(or he could be a Sir Humphrey - or even a Bernard!)

[Dunners]

I'm a Champagne Socialist, and am Head of Knowing Things for the Government. I have qualifications in Expense Account Mastery and one of my hobbies is evading Thor's connection requests on LinkedIn.

I can't say anymore as otherwise it might get this place shut down. Best leave it there.

[StillSpike]

*touches side of nose and winks*

[StillSpike]

One last question.

If you really wanted, could you get someone - you know - eliminated? I believe it's called "The Increment"#

(# that's from watching Spooks, so not particularly reliable)

[Dunners]

What do you really think has happened to all those boarders that have annoyed me over the years?

[i8ubutler]

https://www.eliteukforces.info/rumours/ ... rement.php

[Dunners]

I actually work in housing policy, and for my sins I have to work closely with government bods and MPs. This introduces me to lots of interesting people and gossip from across departments, especially as we have lots of, erm.. "business meetings".

Aside from that I do a lot of reading in areas of personal interest and hobbies. I also drink and know things. I'm quite sad and, if it wasn't for boardin, I'd be that bloke sat at the bar who bores your ears off when you have to come up and get a round in.

[Orient Punxx]

[RedDwarf 1881]

The situation on the Russia/Ukraine border has been touched on, on other threads, but it deserves its own thread, so we can discuss it more.
I think its not bluster by the Russians, and they will attack.

When they do, what happens next. Ukraine has a largish army, twice the size of the British army, and they wont just fold up, though Russian superiority, will win in the end. There will be loss of life on both sides.

An interesting topic for me, is what will the West do, or what will America do?

When Putin grabbed Crimea, the yanks did very little. A few sanctions etc, but nothing too severe. Will they do much the same, or will they react more strongly, by sending forces into Ukraine to help them etc

Putin may well attack on Christmas Day, when the West is indulging in Christmas celebrations.

So what does everyone think?

Personally I don't think the Russians will invade . I can't see what advantage they would gain by doing so .They have already annexed the part they really wanted which was the Crimea . Anyway Russia couldn't afford to be under any more sanctions by the West because their economy is already tanking . I think it's about applying pressure to stop EU/NATO expansion further eastward . Actually ,I can see their point . Every time the West expands eastwards one of the first things we do is to station missles there pointing at Russia.

[tuffers#1]

I'm a Champagne Socialist, and am Head of Knowing Things for the Government. I have qualifications in Expense Account Mastery and one of my hobbies is evading Thor's connection requests on LinkedIn.

I can't say anymore as otherwise it might get this place shut down. Best leave it there.

Post of the Year right there !

[tuffers#1]

The situation on the Russia/Ukraine border has been touched on, on other threads, but it deserves its own thread, so we can discuss it more.
I think its not bluster by the Russians, and they will attack.

When they do, what happens next. Ukraine has a largish army, twice the size of the British army, and they wont just fold up, though Russian superiority, will win in the end. There will be loss of life on both sides.

An interesting topic for me, is what will the West do, or what will America do?

When Putin grabbed Crimea, the yanks did very little. A few sanctions etc, but nothing too severe. Will they do much the same, or will they react more strongly, by sending forces into Ukraine to help them etc

Putin may well attack on Christmas Day, when the West is indulging in Christmas celebrations.

So what does everyone think?

The A merikeys will make lots of weapons for sale to moralistic Europeans. After making Trillions of dollars they shall back the winning side with some troops OTG &Hollywood will have a decade of material .

[slacker]

I actually work in housing policy, and for my sins I have to work closely with government bods and MPs. This introduces me to lots of interesting people and gossip from across departments, especially as we have lots of, erm.. "business meetings".

Aside from that I do a lot of reading in areas of personal interest and hobbies. I also drink and know things. I'm quite sad and, if it wasn't for boardin, I'd be that bloke sat at the bar who bores your ears off when you have to come up and get a round in.

A plausible story until you got to the bit about getting a round in...

[Max B Gold]

I'm reading Putins People at the moment.

The central thesis is that the old KGB run Russia, are angry that they lost their Empire and are hell bent on rebuilding it. This is according to any number of unattributable sources and anonymous grasses that Catherine Belton continually relies on as evidence.

Their methods haven't changed much since Stalins days. But advances in media technology give them more scope to fake stuff and spread lies and instability. I looked at how the GRU/KGB operated in the Spanish Revolution and the Cold War and I'm struck by the similarities.

[The Mindsweep]

Has it started yet or have I got time to get some popcorn?

[Dunners]

I'm reading Putins People at the moment.

The central thesis is that the old KGB run Russia, are angry that they lost their Empire and are hell bent on rebuilding it. This is according to any number of unattributable sources and anonymous grasses that Catherine Belton continually relies on as evidence.

Their methods haven't changed much since Stalins days. But advances in media technology give them more scope to fake stuff and spread lies and instability. I looked at how the GRU/KGB operated in the Spanish Revolution and the Cold War and I'm struck by the similarities.

You mentioned this before, so I got myself a copy and have just started reading it. I get the gist is that it's a mafia state but, whatever the regime, geography, access to warm water ports and other determining factors will surely always compel Russia to expand into its previous empire territories.

Anyway, if I had to put money on an outcome, I'd still go for a negotiated settlement that prevents an invasion for now. But only just. The US and NATO will sacrifice Ukraine if necessary. But there's no way we can accept Russia's demands to revert NATO positions back to their 1997 equivalent.

[Max B Gold]

I'm reading Putins People at the moment.

The central thesis is that the old KGB run Russia, are angry that they lost their Empire and are hell bent on rebuilding it. This is according to any number of unattributable sources and anonymous grasses that Catherine Belton continually relies on as evidence.

Their methods haven't changed much since Stalins days. But advances in media technology give them more scope to fake stuff and spread lies and instability. I looked at how the GRU/KGB operated in the Spanish Revolution and the Cold War and I'm struck by the similarities.

You mentioned this before, so I got myself a copy and have just started reading it. I get the gist is that it's a mafia state but, whatever the regime, geography, access to warm water ports and other determining factors will surely always compel Russia to expand into its previous empire territories.

Anyway, if I had to put money on an outcome, I'd still go for a negotiated settlement that prevents an invasion for now. But only just. The US and NATO will sacrifice Ukraine if necessary. But there's no way we can accept Russia's demands to revert NATO positions back to their 1997 equivalent.

It's a bit more than a mafia state. The old guard KGB working with criminal gangs are in control. As well as enriching themselves the KGB element want to recover from their humiliation and lack of world influence by corrupting the democracies (Tories bought and paid for) from within and creating divisions between allies (eg Brexit).

Access to strategic ports is a consideration but it is the prestige and re-estabishing their empire that according to Belton is key to understanding their motivation.

Not sure they will invade Ukraine as its is likely to be a major conflict and may be drawn out. War in the West got the Czar a belly full of lead!!

I see in the news today that Belton has come to an agreement with Abrahamovic about wot she wrote about him in her book. A book that took seven years to research!

[Currywurst and Chips]

Speaking of Belton's rather good book

She settled with Abramovich today on his legal action

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -biography

[Currywurst and Chips]

Oh, Max mentioned it...

[Max B Gold]

Oh, Max mentioned it...

Yes I did. The agreement highlights the dangers of taking what snitches say at face value and then using it as a source. It looks like an uncomfortable 1-0 win for Roman.

[Currywurst and Chips]

Chelsea win again

Sevco fans will be pleased

[RedDwarf 1881]

I'm reading Putins People at the moment.

The central thesis is that the old KGB run Russia, are angry that they lost their Empire and are hell bent on rebuilding it. This is according to any number of unattributable sources and anonymous grasses that Catherine Belton continually relies on as evidence.

Their methods haven't changed much since Stalins days. But advances in media technology give them more scope to fake stuff and spread lies and instability. I looked at how the GRU/KGB operated in the Spanish Revolution and the Cold War and I'm struck by the similarities.

Their old empire is lost for good . Countries like Latvia and Lithuania are now in NATO .

[Dunners]

For anyone interested, Putin is currently doing his annual end of year news conference. He's sounding proper demented and paranoid.