Moderator: Long slender neck
Not at allMax B Gold wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:27 pmMy cover has been blown. I knew it was a bad idea to use my real name. Is that what put you on to me Tufft"""""""""""YYYYYYYYYY?
Well, whether it's a "real" George, Thor or Max, the personae could still bore for England and some...... time to give it a rest maybe?
Dont blame me
You forgot the "may"Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:25 pm New "Delta plus" variant spreads more easily.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59009293
FixedCurrywurst and Chips wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:29 pmYou forgot the "may"Smendrick Feaselberg wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:25 pm New "Delta plus" variant spreads more easily.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59009293
In the seven days to 19 October, 92.9% of beds were occupied across all trusts in England – but close to half of 126 acute trusts across England averaged 95% capacity or more in the same week (85% occupancy is the accepted international standard and 95% is seen by medics as dangerously high).faldO wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:20 pmYes, I believe they try to keep it at around the 90-95% level at all times. Not much point in having a load of empty beds in hospitals.jamespevans wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:16 pmI read somewhere that bed occupancy is in excess of 90% at the moment. Covid hospitalisations are rising at 10%+ a week, something will have to give very soon.
The bit that "gives" is that non-urgent occupancy makes way for more urgent cases. When that strategy is not possible that's when the crisis occurs and hospitals are overwhelmed.
Shame you didn't publish the graph explaining the numbersjamespevans wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:53 pmIn the seven days to 19 October, 92.9% of beds were occupied across all trusts in England – but close to half of 126 acute trusts across England averaged 95% capacity or more in the same week (85% occupancy is the accepted international standard and 95% is seen by medics as dangerously high).faldO wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:20 pmYes, I believe they try to keep it at around the 90-95% level at all times. Not much point in having a load of empty beds in hospitals.jamespevans wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:16 pm
I read somewhere that bed occupancy is in excess of 90% at the moment. Covid hospitalisations are rising at 10%+ a week, something will have to give very soon.
The bit that "gives" is that non-urgent occupancy makes way for more urgent cases. When that strategy is not possible that's when the crisis occurs and hospitals are overwhelmed.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... r-pressure
...which is why I said "I believe they try to keep it at around the 90-95% level at all times". It was from memory - I did not state it as a fact.jamespevans wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:06 pm The same article quotes faldO's 5% COVID occupancy figure, I was disputing his "they try to keep it at around the 90-95% level at all times" statement. Just like George saying that saying that numbers are "manageable", If we are going to throw statistics (or assertions) around they should at least be evidence based.
Lots of people are taking this seriously.
Oh Pevansjamespevans wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:06 pm If we are going to throw statistics (or assertions) around they should at least be evidence based.
Bit radical for this Board, I admit.Max B Gold wrote: ↑Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:01 amOh Pevansjamespevans wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:06 pm If we are going to throw statistics (or assertions) around they should at least be evidence based.
Yeah, but they're comparing against the same figures last week which would also have experienced weekend delay. Even so, it does seem a bit too good to be true so will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Think last Tuesday was the day we hit (or were very close to) 50k cases.
why wont they call it what it is Herd ImmunityfaldO wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:25 pm COVID-19: Cases could fall significantly in November even without 'Plan B', modelling suggests
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cas ... s-12444117
"Endemic equilibrium" (which I assume is what you're referring to) is different to herd immunity - though I admit I didn't know what is was nor that it was different to herd immunity until I just looked it up.tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:05 pmwhy wont they call it what it is Herd ImmunityfaldO wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:25 pm COVID-19: Cases could fall significantly in November even without 'Plan B', modelling suggests
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cas ... s-12444117
herd immunity with acceptable numbers of dead each year thenfaldO wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:57 pm"Endemic equilibrium" (which I assume is what you're referring to) is different to herd immunity - though I admit I didn't know what is was nor that it was different to herd immunity until I just looked it up.tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:05 pmwhy wont they call it what it is Herd ImmunityfaldO wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:25 pm COVID-19: Cases could fall significantly in November even without 'Plan B', modelling suggests
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cas ... s-12444117
There's more about it here (which is an interesting article about the two): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8378886/
Ultimately, it all adds up to “no chance of ever reaching herd immunity for covid”, says Hunter. He adds that at a UK all-party parliamentary committee held on 10 August, attending scientists were unanimous in their opinion that the UK wasn't going to reach herd immunity. Instead, most researchers seem to agree that the UK will reach what is known as an “endemic equilibrium”, whereby covid-19 becomes seasonal.
I guess it shows there is still a lot to be learnt about strategies for dealing with covid and how best to tackle it.
If you say so.tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:58 pmherd immunity with acceptable numbers of dead each year thenfaldO wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:57 pm"Endemic equilibrium" (which I assume is what you're referring to) is different to herd immunity - though I admit I didn't know what is was nor that it was different to herd immunity until I just looked it up.
There's more about it here (which is an interesting article about the two): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8378886/
Ultimately, it all adds up to “no chance of ever reaching herd immunity for covid”, says Hunter. He adds that at a UK all-party parliamentary committee held on 10 August, attending scientists were unanimous in their opinion that the UK wasn't going to reach herd immunity. Instead, most researchers seem to agree that the UK will reach what is known as an “endemic equilibrium”, whereby covid-19 becomes seasonal.
I guess it shows there is still a lot to be learnt about strategies for dealing with covid and how best to tackle it.
its not me saying it its what the report is sayingfaldO wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:07 pmIf you say so.tuffers#1 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:58 pmherd immunity with acceptable numbers of dead each year thenfaldO wrote: ↑Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:57 pm
"Endemic equilibrium" (which I assume is what you're referring to) is different to herd immunity - though I admit I didn't know what is was nor that it was different to herd immunity until I just looked it up.
There's more about it here (which is an interesting article about the two): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8378886/
Ultimately, it all adds up to “no chance of ever reaching herd immunity for covid”, says Hunter. He adds that at a UK all-party parliamentary committee held on 10 August, attending scientists were unanimous in their opinion that the UK wasn't going to reach herd immunity. Instead, most researchers seem to agree that the UK will reach what is known as an “endemic equilibrium”, whereby covid-19 becomes seasonal.
I guess it shows there is still a lot to be learnt about strategies for dealing with covid and how best to tackle it.
